6-25-11

[golden contender]

GC MLB Play

Saturday Rare 5* 100% Power System Side + a pair of 90% Dominator System Plays. MLB Splits out now 30-10. MLB Free Plays 28-16. Free MLB System Play below.

On Saturday the Free MLB System Play is on the Texas Rangers. Game 910 at 4:10 eastern. Texas fits a nice system that has cashed 24 of 30 times and plays on home favorites of -140 or higher off a home favored win at -140 or higher and scored 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits with 10 + men left on base,vs an opponent off a +140 or higher road dog loss and scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits with 5 or more men left on base. Texas has the pitching advantage with Ogando vsNiese. Ogando is 6-1 at home with a 1.91 ERA. Texas has won 8 of 10 as a home favorite in this range and should get game 2 of this series today. On Saturday the Lead Play is from a Rare 100% Perfect system. I also have a pair of 90% Dominator Systems. MLB cruising right now having won 30 of last 40. For the free Play take Texas. GC

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Saturday's betting tips: Huge over trend in San Diego

Weather to watch
A 17 mph wind is forecast to be blowing in from right field in Arlington today, when the Rangers host the Mets.

Who’s Hot

MLB: Hiroki Kuroda hasn’t won since mid-May, but his numbers in June say he’s pitching better than the results his receiving. Batters are hitting just .211 off him this month, and he has a miniscule 1.92. ERA in June.

MLB: Astros starter Bud Norris has been deadly in his last three starts, boasting a sparkling 0.86 ERA. Norris takes the mound against Tampa Bay today.

PGA: Nineteen-year-old Patrick Cantlay shot a course-record 10-under 60 to take the lead into the third round of the Travelers Championship. It’s the lowest round ever by an amateur on the PGA Tour.

Who’s Not

MLB: Pirates are 7-17 in Jeff Karstens' last 24 starts as an underdog. Pittsburgh is a +120 dog against the Red Sox today.

MLB: Dodgers are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. American League West. The Dodgers are -135 favorites at home against the Angels.

Game of the Day: Rockies at Yankees (-208, 9), 1:05 p.m.

Quote to Note

“I knew where I was. I knew I needed to make eagle on 18 for 59. It’s tough to hole it from 152.” -- UCLA freshman Patrick Cantlay on his record-breaking round.

Betting tips

Petco Park is known as a pitchers’ park and is legendary for producing unders – just not when the Braves are in town. The Over is 26-6-3 in the last 35 meetings between the Braves and Padres in San Diego.

Pitching is dominating right now, and oddsmakers haven’t quite gotten adjusted. Heading into Friday night’s action, unders had cashed in 47 of the last 82 games (57.32%) over the last seven days.

Roger Federer is vying for his seventh Wimbledon title, which would tie Pete Sampras’ mark, but an old nemesis stands in his way today. Federer is a big favorite (-2000) over David Nalbandian, but is only 10-8 lifetime against the Argentine.

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TIM TRUSHEL

15* MLB* FEATURED PLAY O/U*
Detroit Tigers-Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 7 +100

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Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (9-3, 2.54 ERA)

The Tigers’ righthander is clearing space on his mantle for the 2011 AL Cy Young Award. Verlander is the frontrunner for the American League’s top pitching honor and his recent starts have helped, winning five straight outings and remaining undefeated in his previous 10 starts. He’s been especially stingy in June, boasting a 1.06 ERA over four games.

John Danks, Chicago White Sox (3-8, 4.29 ERA)

After a rough start to the season, the ChiSox’s southpaw is beginning to find his form in June. Danks has won three straight outings, posting a 1.09 ERA and 17 strikeouts in those wins. Even a line drive to the head couldn’t slow down the lefty. Danks took one off the bean in Saturday’s win over Arizona, but stayed in the game to pitch seven innings and gave up only one run on seven hits.

Slumping

Tom Gorzelanny, Washington Nationals (2-5, 4.53 ERA)

These are strange days in D.C. The Nationals are winning for the first time in franchise history and yet watched their manager, Jim Riggleman, walk away this week. Gozelanny is hoping all that drama is distracting fans from his terrible work on the mound. The lefty is 0-3 in his last three outings and has just two wins in 10 starts this season. He’s lugging a 7.63 ERA during this recent skid and hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning in four straight appearances.

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers (8-4, 4.11 ERA)

Gallardo is coming back to earth after an incredible start to the schedule. He’s followed six straight wins with a 0-2 record and 6.43 ERA in his last three outings. He was chased after just four innings, giving up four runs on 10 hits, versus the Mets on June 9. Then, he lasted only three innings in his most recent start, allowing five runs on eight hits, including two home runs, in a 12-3 beating at the hands of the Red Sox Sunday. Control issues are the biggest problem for the Brew Crew’s righty.

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Hot lines: Saturday's best MLB bets

Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates (+125, 8.5)

What is with the major leagues these days? The Nationals are rolling and the Bucs are taking down American League giants like Jack chopping down that beanstalk.

The Pirates extended their winning streak to three games with a 3-1 victory over the Boston Red Sox in Friday’s interleague series opener and are slim underdogs at home for Saturday’s Game 2.

A big part of that price tag are the recent performances from Saturday’s starter, Jeff Karstens. The right hander has only one win to show for in his last four starts, but has given up just two total runs in that span, including two scoreless performances.

Karstens is one of the best under pitchers in the bigs this season, lugging a 5-11 over/under mark to the mound. Including a relief appearance on May 25, the Pirates have played below the total in all six of Karstens’ most recent showings.

Including Friday’s 3-1 finish, that stayed below the 7.5-run number, the Bucs and BoSox are 1-4 over/under in their last five meetings.

Pick: Under 8.5

Toronto Blue Jays at St. Louis Cardinals (-144, 8)

After sleeping through most of June, Jose Bautista’s bat is awake and hitting again. The reigning home run leader blasted a game-winning dinger Friday night, giving the Blue Jays a 5-4 victory over the Cardinals.

That round-tripper was Bautista’s second home run in as many nights, snapping a cold streak for the Toronto slugger. Bautista went eight games without a four-bagger and had just one home run in his last 22 games before hitting a solo blast against the Atlanta Braves Wednesday.

“I’ve been working on my timing, I got a little inconsistent over those three weeks or so,” he told the Toronto Star.

“I feel like I’m on time now with my swing, the rest is just getting a pitch to hit, which I did and I was able to put a good swing on it.”

The Jays suffer when Bautista isn’t knocking them out of the park. During that 22-game slump, Toronto posted a 10-12 record, with eight of those losses coming as the betting favorite.

With Bautista feeling like his old self again, the Jays’ high-powered offense, which ranked third in the majors before its slugger’s slump, should get back on track this weekend.

Pick: Toronto +136

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Lady luck: Saturday's best WNBA bets


Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever (-4.5, 153)

The Fever should have one of the WNBA’s hardest working players back on the floor this weekend.

Veteran guard Katie Douglas missed Tuesday’s 89-80 win over the Washington Mystics with a back contusion suffered in a fall in last weekend’s loss to the Seattle Storm. Douglas played just over eight minutes in that game and left the floor for X-rays, which came back negative.

Douglas is averaging more than 16 points this season, seventh in the league, along with nearly five rebounds and two assists per game.

Indiana stepped up big without Douglas on the floor versus Washington, most notably the bench which chipped in with 52 points, including 21 points from Shavonte Zellous and 18 from Jessica Davenport.

With Douglas probable for Saturday’s matchup with the Sun, and solid all-around efforts from her teammates, the Fever should continue to climb in the Eastern Conference standings.

Pick: Indiana

Phoenix Mercury at Chicago Sky (-3.5, 179)

The Sky are happy to be staying in the Windy City this weekend.

Chicago has stumbled away from home this season, but maintains a 3-0 ATS mark inside Allstate Arena, including a 107-101 victory over the Sun in double overtime in which it covered as a 2.5-point home favorite Thursday.

“We grew up tonight,” head coach Pokey Chatman told reporters. “I talk about this all the time in terms of teaching moments, I was just telling the team we had some really clean schemes defensively when they count.”

The Sky are averaging over 82 points per game in regulation at home – nearly 10 points more than their scoring averaging on the road this season. They are second in the WNBA in field goal percentage at 46.8 percent, but have been firing an even hotter 53 percent from the floor over their three home games.

Phoenix will be playing in back-to-back games after visiting Atlanta Friday night and is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games versus Eastern Conference opponents, heading into Friday.

Pick: Chicago

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Jimmy Boyd

*4 Atlanta Braves
*4 Cincinatti Reds
*5 Boston Red Sox

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Keith Glantz

100 Brewers

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Paul Leiner

250* Over 8.5 Redsox/Pirates

100* Redsox -145

50* Reds -120

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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | MLB Money Line

double-dime bet 914 DET (-175) Bodog vs 913 ARI

Analysis: For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
The Diamondbacks are 43-34 this year; 22-17 at home and 21-17 on the road; they took Game 1 of this series 7-6 last night.

Josh Collmenter (4-3, 2.09 ERA) heads to the hill for the visitors; he's coming off his second straight loss on Sunday to the White Sox, giving up three runs off five hits over seven innings in the 8-2 setback.
He's just 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in four road starts this year.

In the other dugout: The Tigers are 40-36 this year; 22-15 at home and 18-21 on the road.

Justin Verlander (9-3, 2.54 ERA) gets the start for the Tigers who was named AL Co-Player Of The Week last monday.

He three a two-hit shutout in a 4-0 victory on Tuesday vs. Cleveland and then a complete game on Sunday and won 9-1 over Colorado.

He struck out 17 opponents over those two contests.
He's won five straight starts and is 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA in nine outings at Comerica Park.

Bottom line: No need to overanalyze this play; Verlander has a tough test today vs. Collmenter, but is clearly firing on all cylinders; after the way his team lost last night, expect a much more concerted effort from everyone and for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the day;
6* play on the DETROIT TIGERS!

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Saturday Comps.

Sebastian -White Sox
OTM-OVER San Diego
John Wynn-Florida
Kevin Kennedy-Florida

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11TH HOUR PLAYS

2u 904 NYY-1.5(-115)
1u NYY/COL over 9.

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Sport System Specialists

Yesterday 1-7 -18,93
Overall since jun.17 -18,61

PHI -1,5 +120 (risking 4,5)

NYY -1,5 +105 (risking 3)

BOS -1,5 +125 (risking 6,75)

ATL -1,5 +140 (risking 3)

CIN -1,5 +150 (risking 10,13)

STL -1,5 +150 (risking 10,13)

TEX -1,5 +125 (risking 3)

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EasyBaseballBetting

Our systems say to go for:

Blue Jays (+136),
Reds (-104),
Devil Rays (+106),
Angels (+127).

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Bob Balfe

Oakland Athletics +175

The Phillies tend to play down to their competition and I do not think Cole Hamels should be favored by this much against a great pitcher in Trevor Cahill. Look for a low-scoring game again like last night, but with Oakland coming out on top. Take the A's.