6-26 Sunday

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MLBPredictions
Kevin
Winner yesterday Over Atlanta / San Diego

5* Oakland Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies -UNDER 7 RUNS (-105)

Josh outman is on the mound for the Athletics for this rubber match of the three game series. Outman is 3-1 on the season with a 2.86 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 6 starts. Outman has allowed 2 or less earned runs in four of his six starts, and his other two starts he gave up just 3 and 4 earned runs. 5 of his 6 starts have been quality. On the rubber for the Phillies is Roy Halladay, who is 9-3 this season with a 2.51 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Halladay has been his impressive self this season for the Phillies. Note that the UNDER is 6-1-1 in the Athletics last 8 overall, and 7-1-1 in their last 9 vs National League East opponents. The UNDER is also 4-0-2 in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record, and 8-2 in their last 10 interleague road games. The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Outmans last 11 starts with 4 days rest, and 9-3-1 in his last 13 starts overall. The UNDER is also 5-2-1 in his last 8 starts as an underdog, and 7-3-1 in his last 11 starts with a total set at 7-8.5. The UNDER is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 games vs a left handed starting pitcher, and 8-0 in their last 8 interleague games The UNDER is also 25-4 in their last 29 games vs AL West opponents, and 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorites. The UNDER is 8-0 in these two teams last 8 meetings. The A's score just 3.24 runs on the road, and they face one of today's best pitchers. I don't expect the A's to put up many runs, and you can look for Outman to continue his solid year holding the Phillies to minimal hits. I like getting the total at 7 here a lot, and I am confident enough to make this a 5 star play this afternoon.
Take the UNDER.

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DEREK MANCINI

PLAY OF MY CAREER
75 DIME* MLB* Houston Astros ML

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WUNDERDOG

(MLB)
1 OF 5

Game: Oakland at Philadelphia (1:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 7 -115

Looks like a pitcher's duel in Philadelphia today. Oakland comes in as a strong UNDER team, on a 6-1 run UNDER, with great pitching but a terrible offense. The last place A's are 26th in runs scored in baseball, 27th in batting average, 25th in on-base percentage and 28th in slugging, so across the board this offense is awful. And they won't score many anyway against ace Roy Halladay (9-3, 2.51 ERA). The UNDER is 7-2 in the Phillies last nine overall and 7-2-1 to the UNDERin the Athletics last ten interleague games as an underdog. At least Oakland has a strong starter in Josh Outman, who doesn't walk anyone and has a 1.89 ERA his last three starts. The Phillies have never faced him before, either. And the UNDER is 15-5-2 in the Athletics last 22 interleague games.
Play the A's/Phillies UNDER the total.

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Benjamin lee Eckstein

Week 13

Ben lee won bolth games on Saturday,the White Sox -$148/Nationals and the Tigers -$170/Diamondbacks.

For Sunday "Mr Chalk" likes the Dodgers -$107/Angels.

"Mr Chalk" is 48-36 -$1004 for the 2011 MLB regular season.

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Sports Wagers

N.Y. YANKEES –1½ +117 over Colorado Pinnacle
Juan Nicasio has 24 K’s and just seven walks in his young five-start career. However, he also has a 4.71 ERA and a BAA of .302 and that’s after facing the Indians, Padres, Dodgers, Giants and Cardinals. Now this 24-yr old kid from the Dominican is going to face a line-up that can bash and it won't be pretty. Nicasio is basically a two-pitch pitcher although he’ll throw in the occasional change. It’s fastball, fastball and fastball and they don’t have a lot of movement on them either. Nicasio has potential but was prematurely brought up when Jorge De La Rosa was injured and Aaron Cook was already on the DL. Nicasio is not major-league ready and the Yanks should rip this guy apart. He put up some very good minor league numbers and has potential for sure but this isn’t Colorado Springs and what you’re going to see is a guy who’s very likely going to overthrow here because the venue, crowd and Pinstripes will have him overwhelmed. The more we see Ivan Nova the more we like him. His outstanding 55% GB profile gives him a chance every time he takes the hill. His strikeout rate is climbing and in his last start in Cincinnati he didn’t issue a walk while striking out seven. The Yanks have won Nova’s last three starts and they’ve won seven of his last 10 starts. This one could get ugly for Nicasio, very ugly, as fastballs doen the middle of the plate won't fool many. Play: NY Yankees –1½ +117 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO –1½ +136 over Washington Pinnacle
Livan Hernandez is an innings-eating machine and he has a high baseball IQ when facing a lot of young hitters but that’s not the case with the White Sox. The South Side has some of the most experienced and patient hitters in the big leagues and they won’t be outsmarted by Hernandez’s extremely average stuff. Improved control, hit % and stand % have all helped to produce the 3.97 ERA. But luck aside, his newfound ability to avoid HRs over the past two years is still baffling and we still wouldn't take him on a dare. His rising fly-ball rate and his lucky hr/f rate suggest his HR/9 rate is headed north. Hernandez's 2011 thus far is a case study for what's possible for a pitcher with below-average skills when everything goes right. The Nats ended a hot run with a 3-0 loss yesterday in which they only mustered two hits. Philip Humber has been a revelation for the White Sox, first filling in for Jake Peavy and then becoming a main cog in their six-man rotation. With only two previous major-league starts under his belt in parts of five seasons before this one, it's new ground for Humber. The question now is how long will this last? While his sub-3.00 ERA will be short-lived, his foundation is not one that is likely to implode. Humber does a great job controlling walks; as his control is stellar and should keep his WHIP in check. A higher strikeout rate would be nice, but it's still high enough to produce a good 55 k’s in 90 IP. Nothing in GB/LD/FB numbers are cause for alarm. He’s not as good as his 2.90 ERA in 90 IP suggest but he’s solid and he doesn’t get into a lot of trouble and he offers up way more upside than that opposing stiff. Play: Chicago –1½ +146 (Risking 2 units).

SAN DIEGO +122 over Atlanta Pinnacle
These two have split eight games this year and one of those Padres win came in San Diego against Tim Hudson, 3-2. Hudson is coming off an eight-inning, two-hit shutout gem against the Blue Jays in his last start and has a 2.00 ERA over his last three starts. Hudson is also loaded with pedigree and reputation and he’s up against a guy making his season starting debut. Why then, are the Braves a seemingly small favorite here? If you were thinking of biting or taking the bait, think again. Cory Luebke is a southpaw and the Braves are the worst hitting team in the majors against lefties with a combined BA of .219. In 29 relief appearances covering 39 innings, Luebke has whiffed 43 batters and walked just 15. He has an solid GB/LD/FB profile of 48%/15%/37% and his 3.23 ERA lines up just right with his 3.17 xERA. Furthermore, he’s no stranger to starting. He was a starter his whole minor league career with outstanding numbers and the combination of Petco Park and solid skills make him an intriguing option going forward. He also made three starts with the Padres last year. This past Monday, Luebke came on in long relief against the Red Sox and gave up two runs on one hit in 3.1 innings and at one point struck out five consecutive hitters. Again, Tim Hudson needs no introduction. He’s a model of consistency. Lots of GBs, good control and a very respectful 3.73 ERA. However, advancing age along with less strikeouts says don’t keep overpaying for him and it sure looks like the books are trying to entice some Braves money here. Play: San Diego +122 (Risking 2 units).

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PowerPlayWins

POD Reds +100 (Bailey)

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BASEBALL PROPHET

PLAY OF THE DAY
Seattle Mariners-Florida Marlins OVER 6

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KEITH GLANTZ

100* MLB* SF Giants ML

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LT Profits

MLB

Twins +143

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JOHN HARRISON

1 UNIT* PREMIUM PLAY Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 RL +145

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SOUTH BEACH SPORTS

100 DIME* Red Sox -125 ML (LP)

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chris jordan:

600 chicago white sox (RUN LINE) +135

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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Sunday
Play Philadelphia (-210) over Oakland (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 1:30 PM EST

Philadelphia has won 21 of the last 23 home games as a favorite of -200 to -225 and they have also won 17 of the last 21 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 7.5 runs. Roy Halladay has won 13 of the last 14 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he is 5-1 in home games this season with an ERA of 2.64.

Play Tampa Bay (-130) over Houston (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 2:10 PM EST

Houston has lost 5 of the last 6 games and they have also lost 43 of the last 63 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Houston has lost 38 of the last 54 games vs. right-handed starting pitchers and JA Happ has lost 10 of the last 12 games as an underdog of +100 to +150.
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Play Florida (-110) over Seattle (Bonus)

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Insider Sports Report

4* Cincinnati (Bailey) -105 over Baltimore (Guthrie)
3* Florida (Sanchez) -110 over Seattle (Fister)
3* Minnesota (Pavano) +130 over Milwaukee (Narveson)

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MLB
Write-Up


Sunday, June 26

Remember as interleague play starts, there are DHs used in games in the American League ballparks; pitchers bat in National League parks. Florida Marlins are home team for series with Seattle this week, even though series is at Safeco Field. Marlins will bat last, there isn't a DH in series. Marlins' ballpark isn't available this weekend.

AL teams are 78-74 vs NL teams so far in interleague play, but 24-36 the last five nights.
Over is 30-32-4 with a DH, 38-44-5 without one, 68-76-9 overall.

Hot pitchers
-- THudson is 2-1, 2.50 in his last three starts.
-- Saunders is 4-2, 3.26 in his last seven starts.
-- Halladay is 2-0, 2.33 in his last four starts. Former Phillie Outman is 2-1, 2.37 in his last three starts.
-- Nova is 3-0, 3.05 in his last three starts.
-- Niemann, who went to college in Houston, is 2-1, 2.12 in his last three starts.
-- White Sox won last five Humber starts (4-0, 2.63).
-- Romero has a 2.35 RA in his last three starts.
-- Minnesota won last four Pavano starts (3-0, 1.64). Narveson is 2-1, 3.60 in his last three starts.
-- Gee is 3-1, 2.40 in his last five starts.
-- Weaver is 3-0, 1.38 in his last six starts. Kershaw is 1-0, 0.56 in his last couple starts.
-- ASanchez is 1-0, 2.61 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Luebke is making first '11 start; he's pitched 39 innings in 29 games in 2011. He was 1-1, 4.08 in three major league starts LY.
-- Detroit lost last three Penny starts (0-2, 4.96).
-- McDonald has a 4.87 RA in his last four starts. Miller allowed three runs in 5.2 IP in his first '11 start, against the Padres.
-- Nicasio is 1-1, 6.23 in his last four starts.
-- Guthrie is 0-3, 5.54 in his last six starts. Bailey is 1-1, 5.29 in his last three starts.
-- Happ is 0-5, 6.75 in his last seven starts.
-- LHernandez is 1-2, 4.88 in his last five starts.
-- McClellan is 0-2, 6.14 in his last four starts.
-- Bumgarner is 1-3, 5.76 in his last four starts; he allowed eight runs in 0.1 IP in last start, with first eight Twins getting hits/scoring. Carmona is 1-6, 10.22 in his last seven starts.
-- Hochevar is 1-4, 6.23 in his last six starts. Wells is 0-1, 7.13 in his last five starts.
-- Holland has a 5.96 RA in his last three starts.
-- Mariners lost last four Fister starts (0-3, 3.60).

Totals
-- Hudson's last four road starts went over the total.
-- Four of Pirates' last five home games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Philly games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last six Penny starts went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Nine of last twelve Colorado road games stayed under total.
-- Three of Gee's last four road starts went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Houston home games went over the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Washington road games stayed under total.
-- Eight of Brewers' last eleven games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Wells starts went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in Cardinals' last ten home games.
-- Over is 9-4-2 in Dodgers' last fifteen games.
-- Under is 11-3-1 in Giants' last fifteen home games.
-- Eight of last ten Florida games stayed under the total.

Hot Teams
-- Braves won seven of their last nine road games. San Diego won three of its last four games overall.
-- Pirates won five of their last six home games.
-- Detroit won 10 of its last 14 home games. Arizona won eight of its last ten road games.
-- Cincinnati won four of its last five road games.
-- Bronx won seven of its last nine home games. Rockies are 7-2 in game following their last nine losses.
-- Washington won 12 of its last 14 games. White Sox won five of their last seven home games.
-- Phillies won eight of their last nine home games.
-- Milwaukee won three of its last four games.
-- Tampa Bay won nine of its last twelve road games.
-- Texas won four of its last six home games. Mets won three of their last four games overall.
-- Angels won five of their last six road games.
-- Giants won five of their last six home games.

Cold Teams
-- Boston lost its last four games, scoring ten runs.
-- Orioles lost nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Dodgers lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Oakland lost three of its last four games.
-- Kansas City lost seven of its last ten games. Cubs lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Minnesota lost its last four games, scoring six runs.
-- Astros lost nine of their last ten home games.
-- Toronto lost four of its last six games. Cardinals lost 11 of their last 14 games (starting Ps 1-8).
-- Indians lost seven of their last nine road games.
-- Florida lost nine of their last ten games outside of south Florida; they're 3-21 in last 24 games overall. Mariners lost four of last five.

Umpires
-- Atl-SD-- Underdogs won nine of last ten Carapazza games.
-- Col-NY-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Onora games.
-- LA-LA-- Five of last seven Hallion games went over the total.
-- Wsh-Chi-- Under is 9-4 in Foster games; road team won his last four.
-- NY-Tex-- Home side won nine of last eleven Fletcher games.
-- Cin-Balt-- Nine of eleven Porter games stayed under total.
-- Az-Det-- Underdogs won 12 of 15 Guccione games this season.
-- A's-Phil-- Favorites won last six Campos games.
-- Bos-Pitt-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Gibson games.
-- TB-Hst-- Favorites won 10 of last 11 Randazzo games; over is 6-3 in his last nine games behind the dish.
-- Min-Mil-- Home side won six of last seven Tumpane games.
-- Chi-KC-- Not enough data to properly analyze umpire Ripperger
-- Tor-StL-- Seven of last eight Reyburn games stayed under total.
-- Clev-SF-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Wendelstedt games.
-- Sea-Fla-- Six of last seven Diaz games stayed under the total.