6-27-11

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JOE WIZ

DAILY FREE PICK

Under 7.5 runs bet. Los Angeles and Washington

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Ultimate

Seattle

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MLB
Write-Up


Monday, June 27

Remember as interleague play starts, there are DHs used in games in the American League ballparks; pitchers bat in National League parks.

AL teams are 87-80 vs NL teams so far in interleague play.
Over is 33-33-6 with a DH, 39-50-6 without one, 72-83-12 overall.
Hot pitchers
-- Leake is 2-0, 1.29 in his last three road starts.
-- Blackburn is 2-1, 3.08 in his last four starts.
-- Kennedy is 5-1, 2.40 in his last nine starts.
-- Lannan is 3-0, 1.40 in his last six starts.
-- Bedard is 4-1, 1.93 in his last ten starts. Beachy is 2-0, 2.45 in his last six starts.
-- Chacin is 3-0, 1.01 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Hellickson is 0-3, 4.82 in his last ten starts.
-- Billingsley is 2-2, 8.53 in his last four starts.
-- Talbot is 0-3, 5.32 in his last four starts.
-- Francis is 1-3, 5.70 in his last four starts. Latos is 0-2, 5.29 in his last three starts.
-- Santana is 0-4, 4.83 in his last five starts.
-- Garza is 1-2, 5.33 in his last five starts.
-- Scherzer has a 7.79 RA in his last six starts. Stewart is 0-1, 5.91 in his two starts this season.

Totals
-- Six of last nine Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Over is 9-5-2 in Dodgers' last sixteen games.
-- Under is 7-3 in Arizona's last ten home games.
-- Over is 11-2-2 in Kansas City's last 15 road games.
-- 10 of last 14 Washington road games stayed under total.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in Colorado's last thirteen road games.
-- Nine of last eleven Toronto games stayed under the total.

Hot Teams
-- Rays won eight of their last nine games. Cincinnati won four of its last six road games.
-- Padres won four of their last five games.
-- Washington won 13 of its last 15 games. Angels won five of their last seven games.
-- Braves won seven of their last ten road games.
-- Toronto won its last three games, allowing seven runs. Detroit won 11 of its last 15 home games.

Cold Teams
-- Dodgers lost eight of their last twelve games. Minnesota lost its last five games, scoring eight runs.
-- Arizona lost five of its last seven home games. Indians lost eight of their last ten road games.
-- Kansas City lost four of its last five road games.
-- Seattle lost four of its last five games.
-- Cubs lost six of their last eight games. Colorado lost three of last four.

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Silver Key

Free Pick for Monday ML Baseball

TAMPA BAY HELLICKSON -R -105 over Cincinnati

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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Monday
Play Detroit (-160) over Toronto (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 6:00 PM EST

Detroit pitcher, Max Scherzer has won 7 of the last 8 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he has also won 16 of the last 21 home games as a favorite of -150 or higher. Max Scherzer is 2-0 vs. Toronto over his career with an ERA of 1.35 and he is 5-1 in home games this season with an ERA of 3.19.

Play Arizona (-170) over Cleveland (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 9:40 PM EST

Arizona pitcher, Ian Kennedy has won 2 consecutive games vs. AL Central Division Opponents and he is 2-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 2.45. Cleveland pitcher, Mitch Talbot has lost 5 of the last 7 games as a road underdog of +150 or higher and he is 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.19.
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Play Colorado (-120) over Chicago Cubs (Bonus)

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VEGAS WISE GUY

LA Angels (Santana): LA Angels -130 Over Washington (Lannan)
The Nationals have been red hot, winning 13 of their last 15, and also moved into 3rd place in the NL East standings. They just took 2 of 3 from the White Sox over the weekend. However, they have to travel to the west coast without a day off in between. Add to this, I believe it is to the point now where the Nationals start to show their true colors and come back down to earth. The Angels took 2 of 3 from the Dodgers over the weekend, so obviously there is no travel factor. While Lannan posts great numbers at home for the Nats, his road success, or lack thereof, really shows when looking at advanced stats. He has a 1.56 WHIP, a 1.43 K/BB rate, and 3.56 BB/IP when pitching away from home this season. Add to that a 4.17 xFIP, a 5.61 tERA, and a 5.10 QERA. Plus in 2 interleague games in his career in AL parks, he has a whopping 10.45 ERA. While Santana is by no means Cy Young, he shows good advanced numbers at home, particularly with K/BB rate(2.65) and BB/IP rate(2.68). In 50,000 simulations ran using these pitchers, the Angels won 58% of the time. That kind of probability results in a line of -138, so we have around 10 cents of value in backing the Angels. In fact, I am going to look to back the Angels every game this series if the value is there. Look for the Nationals to struggle in this series and it all starts today.

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Insider Sports Report

4* Colorado (Chacin) -120 over Chicago Cubs (Garza) Range: -105 to -140
3* Atlanta (Beachy)/Seattle (Bedard) UNDER 6.5 Range: 7 to 6

Free Pick: Washington +115 over L.A. Angels (MLB)

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Baseball Prophet

Twins

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Paul Leiner

100* Twins -120

50* Over 7 Reds/Rays

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chris jordan

300 TB Rays - 110

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MLBPredictions
Kevin
5 straight winners coming into today, lets start this week with a 6th straight…

1*Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers – UNDER 9.5 RUNS (-125)

The Blue Jays and Tigers will meet up for a “make up” game tonight, as their prior meeting in Detroit had been rained out. Blue Jays young righty Zach Stewart get his third start of the season tonight. He is 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.97 WHIP, with batters hitting .395 against him in his first two starts. Those numbers are pretty inflated from his last start, where he went just 3.2 innings giving up 10 hits and 5 earned runs. Stewart pitched well in his first outing, going 7 innings giving up just 2 earned runs. On the mound for the Tigers is Max Scherzer, who is looking for his 10th win on the season. Scherzer is 9-3 on the season with a4.61 ERA and 1.44 WHIP and batters hitting .277 against him. Scherzer loves playing the Blue birds, with a 2-0 record and 1.35 ERA over 20 innings against them lifetime. Note that the UNDER is 9-2 in the Blue Jays last 11 games overall, and 8-2 in their last 10 road games. The UNDER is also 4-0-1 in the Jays last 5 road games vs a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 games as a medium sized -151 to -200 home favorite, and 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs AL East teams. The UNDER is 7-3 in Scherzer’s last 10 home starts, and 6-2 in his last 8 starts with a total set at 9-10.5. The UNDER is also 6-2 in his last 8 starts on 5 days rest, which he has coming into tonight. Also note the UNDER is 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings in Detroit. Tonight we are getting some value on the UNDER with Scherzer on the mound, and the Jays still not back to how they were hitting earlier in the season. Stewart is coming off a very poor start, but I think we can expect something more like his first start of the season.
I’m liking the 9.5 total in tonight’s game.
Take the UNDER.

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TODAYSPICKS
Premium

Los Angeles Dodgers ML

Cincinnati Reds ML

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Richie Carrera

TAMPA BAY -110 over Cincinnati 10 Dimes

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EasyBaseballBetting

Our systems say to go for:

Dodgers (+107),
Devil Rays (-107),
Braves (+104).

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Benjamin lee Eckstein

Ben lee won on Sunday (4th in a row) with the Dodgers -$107/Angels.

For Monday "Mr Chalk" likes the Twins -$115/Dodgers

"Mr Chalk" is 49-36 -$904 for the 2011 MLB regular season.