6-28-11

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TUESDAY BETTORS' TIPS AND NOTES
Tuesday’s Betting Tips: Zito Favored In Return From DL
By Covers Staff



Who's Hot

MLB: Eight of Philadelphia’s last 10 games have played under.

MLB: Detroit has won 13 of its last 17 as a favorite.

WNBA: San Antonio is 6-1 against the spread.

Who’s Not

MLB: Colorado is just 1-9 in Jason Hammel’s last 10 starts.

MLB: Houston has won just five of its last 22 overall and each of its last eight home games.

WNBA: Atlanta is 1-8 against the spread.

Key Stat

3.65 – The Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitching is experiencing a remarkable turnaround. Last season Pittsburgh’s starters owned a 5.28 ERA – worst in the majors. Through 77 games this season, the Pirates rank fifth in the NL with a 3.65 ERA.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Candace Parker, Los Angeles Sparks – Parker is currently listed as questionable for Tuesday’s game against Connecticut with a knee injury. The 6-foot-4 forward is averaging 17.7 points and 9.9 rebounds per contest. The Sparks are set as a 5.5-point underdog on the road.

Game Of The Day

Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 7) – Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee squares off against Boston’s Josh Beckett.

Notable Quotable

"I need be at my 100 percent. If not, going to be impossible against him. So I have to recover. Let's see what's going on and let's see how the MRI looks. And after, let's see if we have the chance to recover for Wednesday. I don't know." – Rafael Nadal after advancing to the Wimbledon quarterfinals despite limping through his win over Juan Martin del Potro. Nadal is a -770 favorite in his next match against Mardy Fish.

Tips And Notes

Veteran lefty Barry Zito will make his first start in more than two months after rehabbing a sprained right foot on Tuesday in the second game of San Francisco’s doubleheader with the Cubs and is set as a -115. Zito was struggling with a 6.24 ERA in three starts before the injury, but the team is encouraged with his work in the minors. "You do it for so many years and you don't miss a turn. Then you do, and you kind of forget all the joy that comes with being out there," Zito told MLB.com. "It just teaches you to really focus on your day-to-day responsibility and not get too caught up in the big picture. When you do that, things take care of themselves."

With the Williams sisters as well as top seed Caroline Wozniaki bowing out of Wimbledon, the outright odds for the women’s side of the draw took a major turn. Maria Sharapova is now pegged at +200 to win outright, followed by Petra Kvitova (+275), Victoria Azarenka (+500), and Sabine Lisicki (+700).

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LADY LUCK

Tuesday's Best WNBA Bets

San Antonio Silver Stars at Chicago Sky (-4, 162)

The Chicago Sky would be in a bad place without Sylvia Fowles.

All she has done so far is score 22.4 points per game to pace the WNBA while also leading her team in rebounding. But she can’t do it all herself.

Even though Fowles dropped 28 points and added 11 rebounds on Saturday, the Sky couldn’t avoid their first home loss of the season in falling 86-78 to the Phoenix Mercury.

Expect much of the same Tuesday. Fowles will get hers, but the Silver Stars are too deep and are making a killing for bettors.

Becky Hammon is the top gun and scores 18 per game, while three other Silver Stars are putting up at least 15 per contest.

They have covered in six of their seven games and are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 road games dating back to last season.

PICK: San Antonio


Phoenix Mercury at Indiana Fever (-4, 175.5)

This is more like the Phoenix Mercury team we expected.

After dropping their first three games of the season, the Mercury have rebounded to win four straight, including a very impressive win at San Antonio – the Silver Stars’ only defeat of the year.

Phoenix is still putting a ton of points on the board, but what's different from the club’s slow start is it is actually defending a bit. The Mercury are plus-20 in rebound differential during their four-game winning streak and those opponents shooting only .391 from the floor.

What’s even more impressive is that Phoenix has won its last two without starting point guard Temeka Johnson, who sprained her ankle in the win over San Antonio. Her status for Tuesday’s game is currently questionable.

PICK: Phoenix

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WNBA NEWS AND NOTES
WNBA: Silver Stars-Sky Preview
By Alan Ferguson



San Antonio Silver Stars at Chicago Sky (-4, 162)

Jia Perkins has been drawing praise from her San Antonio Silver Stars teammates for her intensity. Her former team, the Chicago Sky, was criticized by its coach for lacking that attribute during its most recent defeat.

In her first matchup with the Sky since being traded, Perkins will try to keep the first-place Silver Stars unbeaten away from home Tuesday night.

Perkins helped the Silver Stars (6-1) bounce back from their only loss with 31 points and eight rebounds in a 90-80 win over Los Angeles on Friday. The reserve guard then had 25 points and another eight boards two days later, helping to rally her team to a 92-86 win over Atlanta - San Antonio’s third victory in as many road games this season.

“Not only is (Perkins) a good scorer, but she’s someone that gets a lot of people involved and has rebounded like crazy these last few games,” leading scorer Becky Hammon said. “We just need her to keep being productive.”

Perkins’ former team was far from productive during the third quarter of an 86-78 home loss to Phoenix on Saturday. The Sky (4-4) headed into the break with a three-point lead but were outscored 25-13 in the third.

They were outrebounded 40-29 and gave up 28 second-chance points overall.

“We were soft,” first-year coach Pokey Chatman said. “We lost the game because we were soft. That sums up a lot.”

Chicago has dropped three of four, but that’s not because of Sylvia Fowles, who’s averaging a league-best 22.4 points. The All-Star center scored a season-high 28 on Saturday, topping 20 for the seventh consecutive contest.

“She’s the best post player in the world,” guard Courtney Vandersloot said. “Every night she’s going to give it her all. She works harder than anybody I’ve ever played with down there and she gets rewarded because of it.”

Guard Epiphanny Prince is scoring 17.1 points a game, but she’s the only other Sky player averaging in double figures. Michelle Snow, acquired from San Antonio for Perkins on April 20, is averaging 7.8 and shooting a career-worst 45.5 percent from the field.

Perkins is one of four Silver Stars averaging at least 15.0 points. She is at 16.9 per contest, nearly equal to her career-best 17.0 with Chicago in 2008.

Perkins averaged 10.7 points and Fowles 17.8 against the Silver Stars last season as the Sky swept both matchups. Fowles, Prince and Perkins each had 14 points during an 88-61 rout at Allstate Arena on July 14, while Hammon was held to eight.

Chicago guard Dominique Canty became the ninth player in league history with at least 2,500 points, 900 rebounds and 900 assists in that game, but she’ll likely miss this matchup after undergoing surgery on her left knee Thursday.

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HOT LINES

Tuesday's Best MLB Bets

Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins (-110, 8)

Monday was a bad day for the Los Angeles Dodgers franchise – much like most days have been for the club’s supporters this season.

The Dodgers filed for bankruptcy protection Monday, claiming that the move would stabilize the club’s finances down the road.

If only it were that easy for Dodgers bettors.

Los Angeles supporters are down 11.43 units on the year, putting them 26th in the league. Most of that damage has come with the team playing on the road, but it’s also worth noting that L.A. has won only six of its last 22 interleague games.

With the struggling Ted Lilly facing the hot Minnesota Twins, we’re expecting more misery for the boys in blue Tuesday.

PICK: Twins


San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (+125, N/A)

The Cubs showed some rare pop in Monday’s win over the Giants, with Carlos Pena and Aramis Ramirez each swatting a pair of homers.

The win marked just the third time in nine games that the Cubs managed more than three runs and Doug Davis has to be hoping the club’s offense saved a few runs in the tank.

Davis has just one win on the year but has held his opposition to three or fewer runs in five of his last six outings.

"We played hard and gave ourselves a chance to win," Davis told reporters after losing a 4-3 decision to the White Sox last week. "We were one swing away pretty much the whole game, one play away. It's bound to go the other way one of these times. (We're) keeping the games close, and that's all you can really do."

We see the Giants bouncing back in first game of Tuesday's doubleheader.

PICK: Giants

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MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Tuesday's Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers
By Covers Staff



STREAKING

Ryan Vogelsong (5-1, 1.86 ERA), San Francisco Giants

If Ryan Vogelsong isn’t a shoe-in to play for the National League in the All-Star Game, he can likely cement his spot with one or two good starts. Probably doesn’t hurt that he has Giants manager Bruce Bochy in his corner either.

You have to give it up to the guy though. He has allowed just eight runs over his last nine starts including a 5-1 win over the Twins in which he gave up a single run on four hits in his last outing.

"We had the right guy out there," Bochy said of Vogelsong after the win. "He's really done a great job pounding the strike zone. He had all his pitches working. There was no reason to think he wouldn't give us the innings we needed."

Cliff Lee (8-5, 2.87 ERA), Philadelphia Phillies

How good has Cliff Lee been this month? He has booked two straight complete-game shutouts and has blanked his opposition in three of his last four trips to the mound.

His strikeouts numbers are a little off his usual pace and that’s just how he likes it.

“I really don’t want to strike guys out,” Lee said after striking out 10 Dodgers earlier this month. “I want to get them out in the first couple pitches. It’s good to strike guys out, but that means you’ve got to throw more pitches.”

Lee’s Phillies are set as -125 home favorites against Josh Beckett’s BoSox.



SLUMPING

Felipe Paulino (0-5, 4.35 ERA), Kansas City Royals

Paulino gave up five runs and a pair of homers in his last start, but it wasn’t all bad.

He struggled through the early innings before settling down to retire 13 straight batters. He also struck out eight Rockies and walked just one over eight innings of work.

“We need our starting pitching to get settled down and not give up runs early — and give us a chance to get to our bullpen, which is as good of a bullpen as there is in the league,” Royals manager Ned Yost said last week.

Gavin Floyd (6-7, 4.31 ERA), Chicago White Sox

Floyd was looking pretty good in his last outing before he went out for the sixth inning against the Cubs. Then the wheels fell off.

Floyd was hammered in the sixth frame, turning a 3-2 advantage into a 6-3 deficit in a hurry.

“I think before the sixth he seemed a little down," manager Ozzie Guillen told reporters. “About the fifth inning, I think he started losing his command. He (had a) 3-2 (count) on a few players.”

Floyd is now 1-3 with a 4.96 ERA in his last five starts.

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MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Brewers Travel To Face New York Yankees
By: Adam Markowitz



Milwaukee Brewers at New York Yankees (-130. 9)

The Yankees have cashed money line tickets in 12 of their last 16 games.

We're approaching the halfway point of the MLB betting campaign, and both the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Yankees are sitting pretty in the NL Central and AL East races respectively. The two teams will duke it out for a 3-game set at hallowed Yankee Stadium this week starting with this clash on Tuesday night.

Fox Sports Wisconsin and the YES Network will have the live pickup of the game, which will throw out the first pitch at 4:05 p.m. (PT).

The Brew Crew have put together one of the best records in the National League at 44-35, and their profits on the season of 5.71 units is certainly impressive. However, what we have to remember is that they have been built up thanks to their stunning home record at 29-11, and without improving that dreadful 15-24 mark on the road, they're going to be in a heck of a lot of trouble.

Even more disturbing is how badly Milwaukee has played on the road against solid teams this year. Against teams that are above .500 this season, the Brewers are just 8-14.

We knew that the Brewers were going to be a lot better team when Zack Greinke got back in the rotation after missing the month of April injured. We didn't know that the man that is going to be taking the bump on Tuesday night was going to lead his team to seven straight wins from May 9 through June 11.

Greinke is 7-2 in his 10 starts this year, and he has some simply outstanding splits. Sure, a 4.77 ERA isn't all that great, but batters are only hitting .255 against Greinke, and he has surrendered just nine walks. He has struck out at least five batters in all of his starts, and he is averaging 8.0 per start this year. The righty has at least nine strikeouts in five of his last seven starts.

The problem for Greinke is that he really hasn't pitched well against New York in his career. He is just 2-3 with an ugly 5.27 ERA, and he has a K/BB ratio of just 27/20 in 42 2/3 innings of work.

Of course, the Yankees are never making life easy for the opposition, especially here in the Bronx. They're 25-18 this year at home and have won 12 of their last 16 overall to get back in the driver's seat in the AL East standings.

Now, with an offense averaging 5.25 runs per game behind him, Freddy Garcia will hope to get above the .500 mark on Tuesday night.

If Garcia could just avoid pitching against the Boston Red Sox, he'd be in great shape this year. The righty has thrown seven straight quality starts against other teams than Boston, but in that mix, he has two awful outings against the boys from Beantown as well.

For the season, Garcia is just 6-6, but there is definitely no shame in a 3.30 ERA or a 1.30 WHIP. Batters are being baffled to the tune of a .252 batting average against the 34-year old. Garcia allowed just three hits and two unearned runs in seven great frames against the Cincinnati Reds in his most recent start on June 22.

The weather should be great for baseball, as there is only a minimal chance of rain in the forecast. Temperatures should be comfortable in the high-70s by the time of the first pitch, and there are only light easterly winds expected.

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Tuesday


FIFA Woman's World Cup Group C

USA -222; Over 2.5 -142

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Hondo

Chacin was chased after five wretched innings in Wrigley yesterday, leading to a Rockie loss that sent Hondo's beefy deficit sky-rocketing to a season-high 1,590 pagliaronis.

Tonight, he's getting busy with the Bs -- 10 units apiece on the Bosawx and Braves.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Rockies Monday.

Tuesday it's the Phillies. The deficit is 2498 sirignanos.

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Paul Leiner

250* Phillies -125

100* Giants GM 1 -130

50* Under 7 Rays/Reds

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SPARTAN

Overall Free mark at 166-128
Courtesy Release

#956 Toronto over Pittsburgh

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RAS

WNBA

604 Connecticut Sun -5

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Vic Monte

1000* SYNDICATE BLOWOUT - DETROIT TIGERS -170

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TMBsportspicks

2:20pm (San Francisco -130) 5 units


7:05pm (Boston +115) 5 units


8:10pm (Minnesota -110) 5 units