7-1-11

[timbob]

FantasySportsGametime

Winner yesterday BC Lions
Canadian Football Friday

100* Play Calgary (-7.5) over Toronto
Starts at 9:00 PM EST

Toronto has lost 12 of the last 16 non-conference games and they have also lost 6 of the last 8 games against the spread as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Toronto has lost 2 consecutive games against the spread vs. Calgary on the road and they only averaged 20 points a game on offense in all games last season. Calgary averaged over 35 points a game on offense at home last season and averaged over 446 yards in offense on those same games.

[timbob]

Dave Essler

| MLB Money Line
dime bet 912 NYM (+115) Betjamaica vs 911 NYY

Analysis: Anyone but the Yankees and this would be a bigger play. We love home underdogs and will add the detail a little later. I think that the Mets could end up being - money at some point and in some places. If I had this to enter again, I would make this a 2* play as well, and will personally play it as such strictly based on the ridiculous amount of reverse line movement.

If I ever fade the Yankees it's against a left handed pitcher, typically on the road. Yes, they have won nine of their last eleven but they've also played an inordinate number of home games in the last three weeks, which seriously makes their numbers look better. Now you put them in a "real" ball park like Citi Field and let's see what happens. I WISH I had taken the under at 9 and not 8.5 (just sayin') but that total dropping means there's less likelihood of the Yankess blowing the Mets out, which is another reason I like this play more than I did last night or this morning.

Two of Nova's last three starts (both at home) have not been good. This is typically the time of year that some of these young phenoms begin to show a few signs of wear AND the opposition has a much better idea of what they want to do. And in this case the Mets HAVE already seen him and had reasonable success. And of course the Mets have just been tearing the cover off the ball anyway. The only game they DIDN'T score 8 runs was against Verlander yesterday. If the Mets weren't in a first game back this might have been even bigger, but I do think that the energy that'll be generated by playing their cross-town rivals should negate the usual issues.

And it's actually been the Yankees pen that has been a source of weakness lately, as they have a 4.00 ERA over the last week. as you guys know, I do look at the YEAR but am far more focused on the "here and now" of most things.

The Mets pen hasn't produced all year, so I don't count on them for anything other than the home teams' last at bat. It's Niese who I am banking on giving us a quality start. He's a ground ball pitcher who has ahd a very low pitch count over the last two weeks, and now against the Yankees (who hit more homer runs than singles, so it seems) i a huge pitchers park, so I expect that he will keep the ball inside the fences. Plus, unlike Nova, the Yankees haven't seen him, not for one at bat.

Add all this up and you have a home underdog that may well be the listed favorite who I feel strongly wins this game, so I bet on them.

[timbob]

Jack Howard

MLB:
NYY/NYM Over 8.5(-110) 5 Dimes

[timbob]

Dom Chambers

Today's winner...
I am releaseng the ANGELSas my 100 Dimer today. I want you hammeriong this play at the best possible number you can find. As I release this play at 7:15 a.m. pacific time, I see the line being Angels -110.

[timbob]

chris jordan:

400 Atlanta Braves (Run line) +135

[timbob]

LPW Sports

CFL Forecast
Winnipeg +8.5 over Hamilton - Top
Winnipeg/Hamilton Under 51.5
Toronto/Calgary Over 51