7-5-11

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Insider Sports Report

4* N.Y. Yankees (Sabathia) -145 over Cleveland (Carrasco)
Range: -130 to -165

3* Houston (Rodriguez)/Pittsburgh (Karstens) UNDER 7
Range: 7.5 to 6.5

3* Detroit (Verlander) -120 over L.A. Angels (Haren)
Range: +100 to -140

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ultimate

nyy
bost

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Fantasy Sports Gametime

Play Boston (-210) over Toronto (Top Play of the Day)

Boston pitcher, Jon Lester has won 22 of the last 25 home games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs and he has also won 20 of the last 23 home games as a favorite of -200 or higher. Jon Lester is 9-4 vs. Toronto over his career with an ERA of 3.40 and he has an ERA of 2.14 over the last three starts.


Play Milwaukee (-170) over Arizona (Top Play of the Day)

Milwaukee has won 15 of the last 18 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and they have also won 29 of the last 40 home games. Randy Wolf has won 10 of the last 13 home games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he is 10-3 vs. Arizona over his career.


Play Philadelphia (-155) over Florida (Bonus)

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SPORTS WAGERS

WASHINGTON –1 +108 over Chicago

Some sportsbooks give you the option of laying a single run and that’s an option we’re going to use more of beginning here. If you don’t have that option you should open an account at Pinnacle Sports and use it. In this case, if you don’t have the option of laying a run, we would still play the Nats laying 1½-runs and taking back +156. The reason is because Ramon Ortiz now joins the cast of characters playing musical chairs at the back end of the Cubbies rotation. Ortiz is now 38-years-old. He pitched 30 innings with the Dodgers last year with disastrous results (6.30 ERA, 1.63 WHIP). Ortiz is currently 6-3 with a 4.44 ERA for the Iowa Cubs of the Triple A Pacific Coast League. He’s thrown 99.1 frames down there and has allowed 115 hits for a BAA of .292. Prior to his brief stint with the Dodgers last year, Ortiz last pitched at this level in ’05, ’06 and ’07 and posted ERA’s of 5.36, 5.57 and 5.45 respectively. The guy can’t get minor-leaguers out and chances are he won’t last long in this one. Ross Detwiler’s minor league numbers are not much better. However, he’s a 25-year-old lefty that has always had tremendous potential. Detwiler was a first round pick in ’07. He was the highest Missouri State draft pick in school history and was a member of the 2006 All-MVC Tournament team. Detwiler fanned 10.2 batters per 9 innings during his three-year career with the Bears and entered the '07 season as a Baseball America Pre-Season All-American. All that must seem like a lifetime ago for Detwiler, as he was billed as a “sure thing”. He’s run into some injury troubles and the Nats are giving him another shot. He’s appeared in 24 major-league games with 19 of those coming as a starter. His career numbers are not great (4.47 ERA, .286 BAA) but this has nothing to do with wagering on Detwiler and everything to do with betting against a bad Cubs team with an aging and washed up hurler grasping at straws. Play: Washington –1 +108 (Risking 2 units).


Colorado +128 over ATLANTA

This one is about as big a no-brainer as we’ve seen all year. Of course that doesn’t mean the Rocks will win but one really has to like their chances better than the Braves chances. Alex Gonzalez (three for his last 22), the ailing Chipper Jones (3-for-20), Freddy Freeman (4-for-21), Nate McLouth (2-for-13) and Dan Uggla (3-for-22) are all below the Mendoza Line over the last week. In seven starts at Fulton County Stadium, Derek Lowe has one win and an ERA of 5.03. Current Rockies hitters have a pretty decent history against him with 44 hits in 164 career AB’s for a BA of .268, a slugging of .457 and a OPS of .814. Lowe isn’t getting any younger and the miles on his arm could finally be taking its toll. The league hit .238 off him in May but his ERA in that month was 4.47. In June the league hit .265 off him and his ERA was 4.41. The real kicker is that Lowe is getting whacked by LH’s and the Rocks line-up is dominated by left-handed bats. Then we have Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin has posted some amazing skills during the last month that include a high strikeout rate, good control, a 60% GB%, 113 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) and a 2.82 xERA. Nothing favors the Braves here other than home field and at worst, this game should be a pick ‘em, thus creating the strong value. Play: Colorado +128 (Risking 2 units).


Kansas City +149 over CHICAGO

The White Sox continue to make a lot of bad pitchers look good and one could argue that the pitcher’s the South Side faced over the past couple of weeks are some of the worst in the game. That list includes Jeff Francis, Rodrigo Lopez, Randy Wells, Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel, Livan Hernandez, Tom Gorzelanny and Doug Davis. At best, those are all #5 guys in any rotation and at least half wouldn’t even be that. The White Sox didn’t make one or two of them look good, they made them all look like Roy Halladay. Tonight they’ll face Felipe Paulino, a guy with great skills that’s flying way under the radar. Paulino has been erratic and hittable in his transition back to a starting role. But his base skills in June were really good (33 k’s in 37 IP and a 3.58 ERA), not to mention a 49% GB% and a 104 BPV. With an average fastball velocity of 95 MPH and an effective slider, he's got the tools to dominate hitters in stretches. While he needs a third pitch to succeed long-term as a SP, this is a good spot to dominate. Over his last two starts, Paulino has struck out 15 and walked just two. This guy is coming on. The Royals continue to hit the ball. They’re second in the majors with a .270 BA hitting with two outs and RISP. Over the past 20 games they’re third in the majors with a BA of .281 and they’re in the top five in a whole slew of other key offensive categories. By contrast, the White Sox rank in the bottom three in every key category over the past 20 games and again, that’s after facing chicken fodder. Jake Peavy will make his third appearance in 10 days. He went four innings against the Nats on June 25, he went six innings against Colorado on June 30 and now on July 5, he’ll go again after spending 217 days on the DL over the past three years. This doesn’t make sense but either does Adam Dunn in the heart of the order with a .158 BA and striking out or hitting into a double play every time he’s up there. Play: Kansas City +149 (Risking 2 units).

[golden contender]

GC MLB Play

Tuesday Quad pack has Never Lost National League Power System + 96% American League System Side, undefeated Run line Play + late total. Free MLB System Side below

On Tuesday the MLB Free system play is on the Milwaukee Brewers. Game 910 at 8:05 eastern. The Brewers fit a nice system that has cashed 29 of 37 times and plays on certain home favorites off a home favored loss by 2 or more runs and scored 5 or more runs with a total that was 8 or less vs an opponent off a 2 or more run road dog win scoring 5 or more runs with 5 or more men left on base. Milwaukee is 6-0 at home in game 2 if they lost game one. They have a nice pitching advantage with Wolf over Duke. Wolf has a solid 2.78 home Era and has won the last 4 starts here. Duke has been shelled pretty good here allowing 12 earned runs in his last 2 here over a span of 9+ innings. Duke once again has struggled on the road. This year his road Era is 5.56. Look for the Brewers to move to 14-3 as a home favorite from -150 to -175. On Tuesday there are 3 big MLB sides up and a late total. Two from Never lost Perfect systems. The Other from a rare 96% system. Jump on and cash out on Tuesday. For the free Play take the Milwaukee Brewers. GC

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Paul Leiner

100* Tigers -120

50* Astros even

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WUNDERDOG (WNBA)
WNBA 26-17 Season-to-Date +$1490
1 OF 4

Game: Seattle at Indiana (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Seattle +5 (-110)
The Seattle Storm are 5-3 despite shooting the long ball at historically poor rates for this club. Here is a look at the 3-point shooting numbers for the Storm for their top five active scorers. Cash .214 while last year she was .407. Bird at .325 last year was .399. Little at .200, last year .348. Wright .323, last year .411. Finally Willingham at .167, last year .452. There isn't a single player amongst their top five scorers even close to last year's numbers, and in spite of that, the Storm are 5-3. They are 5-3 because they defend better than any team in the WNBA. You have to go all the way back to the 2007 season to find a WNBA team allowing less than 70 points per game, and the Storm is allowing 68.8 ppg. The Fever are playing well, winning four straight, but this is a team that has struggled vs. the West at 2-5 ATS in their last seven. The Storm are winning despite the 3-point shooting anomaly, and I expect a few more to start dropping while their defense smothers the Fever.
Play on Seattle.

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David Banks

(comp)
Winner yesterday Over Baltimore / Texas

No writte up
OVER Toronto Blue Jays / Boston Red Sox

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EasyBaseballBetting

Our systems say to go for:

Giants (-153),
Blue Jays (+196),
Devil Rays (-110),
Mets (+118),
Royals (+149),
Rangers (-210).

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Cappers Access

Cubs
Yankees(RL)
Tigers

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CHUCK O'BRIEN

40 DIME* NL TOTAL OF THE YEAR* Houston Astros-Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER
20 DIME* BONUS PLAY* Detroit Tigers ML
Edit/Delete Message

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KEITH GLANTZ

100* MLB* SF Giants ML
25* MLB* Colorado Rockies ML
25* MLB* Pittsburgh Pirates ML

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Power Play Wins

Phillies

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Benjamin lee Eckstein


"Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB Regular Season

Week 15

Ben lee won bolth games ,the White Sox -$155/Royals and the Nationals -$158/Cubs on Monday.

For Tuesday "Mr Chalk" likes the Giants -$158/Padres.

"Mr Chalk" is 53-40 -$1063 for the 2011 MLB regular season.

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Matt Farrgo

7* St. Louis Cardinals -136

Jaime Garcia is coming off a poor outing last time out at Baltimore but the last time he allowed double-digits in hits, he bounced back with a gem next time out. Making this start at home will also help as his numbers at home are spectacular. Garcia has a 0.88 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in seven home starts and while two of those are non-quality, they are only that way because of a lack of innings tossed. The Cardinals are 6-1 in those seven home starts and Garcia is 4-0 in four career starts against St. Louis. Cincinnati goes with Edinson Volquez who has put together some good starts but also some really bad ones. He has only five quality outings in 16 starts on the season and a lot of that is due to bad command. He has a 1.63 WHIP to go along with his 5.65 ERA and both of those numbers balloon to 1.78 and 5.85 on the road. Only three of his nine road starts have been quality and making matter worse, the Reds are averaging just 3.0 rpg in those games. He has tossed four straight non-quality games against the Cardinals, posting a 6.53 ERA over that stretch.