7-6-11

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JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 6.5 runs bet. San Diego and San Francisco

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Free Silver Key Pick for Wednesday ML Baseball

MINNESOTA LIRIANO -L -120 over Tampa Bay

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MLB
Write-Up


Wednesday, July 6

Hot pitchers
-- Norris has a 2.61 RA in his last five starts.
-- Gorzelanny has a 1.29 RA in his last couple starts.
-- Jurrjens is 3-0, 0.89 in his last three starts.
-- Westbrook is 1-0, 3.93 in his last three starts.
-- Kuroda is 1-1, 0.95 in his last three starts.
-- Giants won last two Bumgarner starts (1-0, 1.26).

-- Liriano is 3-2, 3.30 in his last seven starts. WDavis is 2-1, 1.80 in his last three outings.
-- Chatwood is 2-1, 2.37 in his last three starts. Penny has a 2.29 RA in his last three starts.
-- Vargas is 2-1, 1.50 in his last three starts. Moscoso has a 2.60 RA in his last three starts, but no wins.
-- Romero is 2-1, 2.08 in his last four starts.
-- Masterson is 1-1, 1.83 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Morton is 1-2, 9.72 in his last four starts.
-- Gallardo is 1-3, 6.11 in his last five starts. Collmenter is 0-4, 7.54 in his last four starts.
-- Wells is 0-2, 7.24 in his last six starts.
-- Arroyo has a 5.94 RA in his last five starts.
-- Kendrick is 1-2, 5.76 in his last five starts. Marlins lost last four Sanchez starts (0-1, 4.18).
-- Cook is 0-3, 4.97 in five starts this season.
-- Niese is 1-2, 5.74 in his last three starts.
-- Moseley is 0-2, 5.82 in his last four starts.

-- Jackson is 1-1, 4.23 in his last six starts. Chen is 1-2, 5.65 in his last five starts.
-- Hughes was 0-1, 13.94 in three starts before going on the DL.
-- Wakefield is 2-2, 5.68 in his last five starts.
-- Guthrie is 1-2, 6.63 in his last three starts. Ogando is 1-3, 9.37 in his last four starts.

Totals
-- Under is 10-4 in Washington's last fourteen games.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in Pirates' last seven games.
-- Brewers' last five games all went over the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Giants' last six home games.
-- Seven of Phillies' last ten games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten St Louis home games.
-- Six of last eight Atlanta home games stayed under the total.
-- Dodgers' last four home games stayed under the total.

-- Over is 12-3-1 in last sixteen games at Fenway Park.
-- Five of last six Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-4 in Seattle's last fourteen road games.
-- Five of last seven Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in White Sox' last seven home games.
-- Eight of last eleven Texas games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Detroit games stayed under the total.

Hot Teams
-- Washington won three of its last four games.
-- Pittsburgh won nine of its last thirteen games.
-- Giants won nine of their last thirteen games. Padres won six of their last eight games.
-- Phillies won nine of their last twelve games. Marlins won four of six.
-- Cardinals won five of their last seven games.
-- Arizona won four of its last five games.
-- Braves won eleven of their last fourteen games.
-- Mets won six of their last seven road games.

-- Red Sox won five of their last six games. Toronto won four of its last six road games.
-- Minnesota won 13 of its last 15 home games.
-- Bronx won eight of its last ten games. Indians are 5-3 in their last eight games.
-- White Sox won five of their last seven games.
-- Rangers are 5-3 in their last eight games.
-- Mariners won four of their last five games.
-- Angels won ten of their last twelve games.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost nine of their last eleven road games.
-- Astros lost eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Brewers lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Reds lost four of their last five games.
-- Rockies lost eight of last eleven games, including last five on road.
-- Dodgers lost ten of their last thirteen games.

-- Rays were outscored 10-2 in losing last two games in Minnesota.
-- Oakland lost nine of its last thirteen games.
-- Royals lost ten of their last thirteen road games.
-- Orioles lost 16 of their last 21 road games.
-- Detroit lost seven of its last nine road games.

Umpires
-- Hst-Pitt-- Home side won last eight Kulpa games, with last six going under the total.
-- Chi-Wsh-- Underdog won 11 of 15 Guccione games this season.
-- Col-Atl-- Favorites won last six Blaser games.
-- Phil-Fla-- Last seven Eddings games stayed under the total.
-- Az-Mil-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Vanover games.
-- Cin-StL-- Home side won last three Bucknor games, with faves 5-1 in last six and last three going over total.
-- NY-LA-- Last nine Davis games went over the total.
-- SD-SF-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Kellogg games.

-- NY-Clev-- Visiting team won last six Foster games.
-- Tor-Bos-- Over is 11-2-1 in last fourteen McClelland games.
-- Balt-Tex-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Cuzzi games; his last two games both ended 1-0.
-- KC-Chi-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Marquez games.
-- TB-Min-- 11of last 13 Darling games stayed under the total.
-- Det-LA-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten West games.
-- Sea-A's-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven TWelke games.

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JOHN HARRISON

Reds/Cards OVER 9

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Fantasy Sports Gametime

Play Atlanta (-190) over Colorado (Top Play of the Day)

Atlanta has won 7 of the last 8 games and they have also won 42 of the last 62 games when batting .240 or worse over the last twenty games. Jair Jurrjens has won 16 of the last 18 games as a home favorite of -150 to -200 and he is 3-0 over the last three overall starts with an ERA of 0.89.


Play Texas (-180) over Baltimore (Top Play of the Day)

Baltimore has lost 30 of the last 46 games coming off a loss and they have also lost 31 of the last 40 road games after having lost six or seven of the last eight games. Texas pitcher, Alexi Ogando has won 6 of the last 7 games as a favorite of -150 or more and he is 6-1 at home this season with an ERA of 2.38.


Play Milwaukee (-150) over Arizona (Bonus)

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Sport System Specialists
Yesterday 4-3 -1,38
Overall since jun.17 +91,97

PHI ML +125 risking 4,5

NYY ML -105 risking 3

BOS -1,5 +160 risking 15,19

ATL -1,5 +120 risking 2

CIN ML +115 risking 15,19

TEX -1,5 +110 risking 6,75

TB ML +120 risking 4,5 Reply With Quote
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JIMMY BOYD
5* MLB* GAME OF THE WEEK* LA Dodgers ML
4* MLB* Oakland Athletics ML
4* MLB* Cincinnati Reds ML
3* MLB* Chicago Cubs ML

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EasyBaseballBetting
Our systems say to go for:

Diamondbacks (+140),
Blue Jays (+110),
Phillies (+119),
Mariners (+114),
Mets (+113),
Royals (+136).

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BASEBALL PROPHET
Arizona Diamondbacks-Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5

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JOHN HARRISON

White Sox -1.5 RL +145

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Todays Picks

Pirates -115

Indians -105
Look for at least 11 runs to be scored in Diamondbacks / Brewers game this afternoon.
Compliments of TodaysPicks.

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Richie Carrera

Arizona/MILWAUKEE UNDER 8.5- 5 Dimes
Kansas City/CHICAGO UNDER 9- 5 Dimes
Philadelphia/FLORIDA OVER 8- 5 Dimes

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Jack Howard

MLB:
NYY(-105) Over Cleveland 10 Dimes
Pittsburgh(-120) Over Houston 5 Dimes

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Sports Wagers

MILWAUKEE –1 –108 over Arizona Pinnacle
2:10 PM EST. The books have made the Crew a pretty significant favorite here of –152 and that’s because they’re aware that Josh Collmenter is not that good while Yovani Gallardo is. Collmenter has some sexy surface stats (3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), but those marks have been helped by a friendly 22% hit rate and 83% strand rate. This luck, combined with pinpoint control, has fueled his success. This is no budding star and this is a guy whose numbers are in for a significant regression the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Gallardo is fine. His 4.00 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in June were inflated due to a high 37% hit rate. His base skills remained electric with a great strikeout rate, good control, a 51% GB% bias and a 119 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups). No reason for concern whatsoever and he’ll face a Snakes team that hits lefties much better than righties. Milwaukee has consistently had the most powerful home offense in the Senior Circuit this year and their .830 home OPS is still the highest mark in the NL by 40 points. They should expose Collmenter. Play: Milwaukee –1 –108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Houston +110 over PITTSBURGH (1st 5 innings) Pinnacle
Sometimes baseball is not a fair game. Case in point is Bud Norris, who has four wins in 17 starts but has pitched well enough to win at least 10 games and probably 12. Against the Bucco’s this year, Norris is 0-2 with an ERA of 2.57. Norris has a 90+ BPV in the first, second, and third times he goes through lineups. This consistency bodes well for one of the game's premium young pitchers and his 3.37 xERA confirms that his current 3.51 ERA is no fluke. He just keeps striking guys out at a high rate, gives up very little but does not get rewarded. We’re not going to put this one in the hands of the Astros bullpen because that pen is so erratic and unreliable. The Pirates are going to be hard pressed to score off Norris and hopefully the Astros can get to Charlie Morton, who, by the way, is nothing at all like Roy Halladay. Morton has issued 37 walks and struck out 51 in 92 innings. He pitches to contact and has a huge groundball tilt of 61% but he’s always had a strong GB tilt. Fact is, Morton has very average stuff and over the last month covering four starts over 17 innings, his ERA was 8.64 after striking out nine and walking six. Yeah, the Astros are putrid and the Pirates are an amazing four games above .500 but we’re not going with the worst of it here in the games’ first half. Play Houston +110 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).

Seattle +112 over OAKLAND Pinnacle
3:35 PM EST. Jason Vargas has posted six straight quality starts, including a complete game shutout in his last start. He has allowed only 12 earned runs in those six starts, spanning 47 IP. Yet there are signs that Vargas' skills do not fully support his stats. While he is again outperforming his xERA, Vargas' skills are markedly improved. His strikeout rate has moved beyond the marginal range of his previous two seasons, while he has maintained his solid control, pushing his command to a career best. His ERA/xERA gap is roughly half the size of his 2010 gap. His xERA is also nearly three-quarters of a run lower than in 2010. Despite Vargas' real skills growth, he remains a candidate for a second-half regression. His ERA seems likely to climb toward his xERA, but his heightened SO rate and command provide more margin for error. Vargas seems a safer investment now than he did entering the season, but the second half could tell us whether he is an improving pitcher, or merely a half-season wonder. Regardless, he’s a good bet taking back a tag against the imposter he’s opposing here. When pitching in the majors, Guillermo Moscoso has struggled with walks and this year, while working primarily as a starter (in 2009, he worked exclusively as a reliever), his strikeout rate has plummeted (take away the two relief appearances he's made this year, his SO rate dips even further). He has allowed fly balls at a rate higher than 50% over his major league career and this year it’s at 57%, a recipe for trouble by itself, but disastrous when combined with poor command, as evidenced by his -47 BPV and 6.31 xERA. Moscoso got his shot as an injury fill-in but his days in the A's rotation appear to be numbered. It's possible he could catch on in the bullpen, perhaps depending on whether the A's look at his good ERA or his terrible skills. Focus on the skills, and your decision about whether to lay juice with this stiff or bet against him should be considerably easier. Play: Seattle +112 (Risking 2 units).

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LT Profits

MLB

Blue Jays/Red Sox UNDER 10 +100