7-16-11

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Cubs Friday.

Saturday it's the Cubs. The deficit is 2,304 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo rebounded magnificently from Thursday night's crushing defeat with the Pods, scoring with the Native Americans last night to slice and dice the debt to 1,790 conleys.

Today, it's a fave rave with CC and the one and only Jimmy Shields -- 10 units apiece on the Yankees and Rays.

[timbob]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Saturday

Tigers -160

[timbob]

MLB
Write-Up


Saturday, July 16

Hot pitchers
-- Hamels is 7-2, 1.68 in his last eleven starts.
-- Vazquez is 2-1, 1.78 in his last four starts. Zambrano is 1-0, 3.38 in his last three starts, but left his last outing with back issues.
-- Hanson is 5-0, 1.85 in his last six starts.
-- Norris is 2-2, 2.54 in his last six starts. Maholm is 3-1, 3.38 in his last four outings.
-- Carpenter is 3-0, 2.15 in his last four starts.
-- Kuroda has a 2.16 RA in his last four starts.
-- Zito is 3-0, 1.29 since coming off the DL. Luebke is 1-1, 1.06 in his first three starts.

-- Sabathia is 4-0, 0.28 in his last four starts; he hasn't allowed a run in his last 23 innings pitched.
-- Santana is 1-0, 2.38 in his last three starts. Cahill has a 2.86 RA in his last five starts.
-- Shields is 3-3, 1.88 in his last six starts, but lost his last three, as Rays scored five runs in the three games.
-- Pavano is 4-1, 2.85 in his last seven starts.
-- FHernandez is 0-0, 1.80 in his last couple starts. Wilson is 2-0, 3.38 in his last three outings.

Cold pitchers
-- Niese is 2-2, 5.17 in his last four starts.
-- Arroyo has a 9.35 RA in his last three starts.
-- Lannan is 0-1, 5.06 in his last three starts.
-- Chacin is 0-3, 5.82 in his last three starts. Greinke is 0-1, 10.20 in his last three outings.
-- Kennedy is 1-1, 6.41 in his last three starts.

-- Romero is 0-1, 8.44 in his last couple starts.
-- Lackey is 2-4, 5.92 in his six road starts.
-- Jackson is 1-2, 4.05 in his last four starts. Scherzer is 1-2, 7.06 in his last four starts.
-- Carrasco is 1-3, 6.95 in his last four starts. Simon allowed three runs in 4.2 IP in losing his first '11 start.
-- Francis is 0-4, 5.60 in his last five starts.

Totals
-- Five of last six Florida road games went over the total.
-- Seven of Philly's last eight road games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in Pittsburgh's last seven road games.
-- Five of last seven St Louis games went over the total.
-- Last four Atlanta home games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Milwaukee road games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Arizona games went over the total.
-- San Francisco's last four road games went over the total.

-- Over is 8-3-1 in last twelve Toronto games.
-- Three of last four Oakland games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Tampa Bay games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Detroit's last seven home games.
-- Four of last five Cleveland road games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-4 in Minnesota's last dozen home games.
-- Last four Texas road games stayed under the total.

Hot Teams
-- Marlins won six of their last seven games.
-- Phillies won 10 of their last 14 games.
-- Braves won 11 of their last 14 games.
-- Pirates won six of their last eight games.
-- Colorado won four of its last five games.
-- Dodgers won their last five games, allowing five runs.
-- Giants won six of their last seven games.

-- Indians won five of their last six road games.
-- Detroit won four of its last six games.
-- Toronto won its last five games, scoring 46 runs.
-- Red Sox won 10 of their last 12 games.
-- Twins won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Angels won 14 of their last 18 games.
-- Rangers won their last nine games, scoring 62 runs.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Reds lost seven of their last eleven games. St Louis lost its last three road games, allowing 19 runs.
-- Mets lost four of their last five games.
-- Nationals lost four of their last five games.
-- Astros lost 16 of their last 18 games.
-- Brewers lost three of their last four games.
-- Arizona lost five of its last six home games.
-- Padres lost their last seven games, scoring five runs in their last six.

-- Orioles lost nine in row, 14 of last 15 games.
-- White Sox lost five of their last seven games.
-- Bronx Bombers are 3-6 in their last nine games.
-- Tampa Bay is just 5-6 in its last eleven games.
-- Royals lost 11 of their last 16 road games.
-- Oakland lost six of its last eight games.
-- Mariners lost their last seven games, scoring nine runs- they've been blanked in each of their last two games.

Umpires
-- Fla-Chi-- Four of last five Hallion games stayed under the total.
-- Phil-NY-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Gorman games.
-- Pitt-Hst-- Nine of last eleven Timmons games stayed under total.
-- StL-Cin-- Home team won last five Winters games, with three of last foir going over the total.
-- Wsh-Atl-- Six of last nine Danley games went over the total.
-- Mil-Col-- Favorites won last eight Blaser games.
-- LA-Az-- Road team won nine of last eleven Diaz games.
-- SF-SD-- Underdogs won seven of last ten Runge games.

-- NY-Tor-- Six of last eight Tichenor games stayed under the total.
-- LA-A's-- Five of last seven Scott games went over the total.
-- Bos-TB-- Underdogs are 6-5 in last eleven Reynolds games.
-- Chi-Det-- 10 of 13 Porter games stayed under the total.
-- Clev-Balt-- Last three Knight games stayed under the total.
-- KC-Minn-- Five of last six Campos games stayed under the total.
-- Tex-Sea-- Last three Cederstrom games stayed under the total.

[timbob]

FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Saturday
Play Detroit (-160) over Chicago White Sox (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 4:10 PM EST
Chicago pitcher, Edwin Jackson has lost 7 of the last 8 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he has also lost 5 of the last 6 games as an underdog of +100 or higher. Edwin Jackson has lost 4 of the last 5 division games and he has an ERA of 6.06 in road games this season.

Play Atlanta (-170) over Washington (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Atlanta pitcher, Tommy Hanson has won 7 consecutive games when the total posted is 7 runs or less and he has also won 7 of the last 8 games after giving up one or less runs in his last outing. Tommy Hanson has an ERA of 2.94 vs. Washington over his career and he is 2-0 over the last three overall starts with an ERA of 2.25.

Play New York Yankees (-150) over Toronto (Bonus)
Starts at 1:05 PM EST
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Canadian Football Saturday
100* Play British Columbia (+2.5) over Edmonton
Starts at 7:00 PM EST
British Columbia has covered the spread in 6 consecutive games coming off an upset loss as a home favorite and they have also covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 road games as an underdog of 7 points or less. Edmonton has lost 9 of the last 13 games against the spread as a home favorite and they have also lost 3 of the last 4 games vs. British Columbia at home.

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Ultimate

11-0 run
Huge card

st l
atl
angels w weaver
nyy
sf

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Gill Alexander

3* MLB GAME OF THE WEEK

16-3 (84%) MLB BEST BET TEAR
----- 4-0 out of the shoot since the All-Star Break----
*** 925 CWS (+140) vs 926 DET ***

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Cubs ML
Cardinals RL
Twins RL

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JOE WIZ

DAILY FREE PICK

under 9 runs Colorado and Milwaukee

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Silver Key

Free Pick for Saturday ML Baseball

ATLANTA HANSON -R -185 over Washington

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Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Phillies -150 over Mets

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Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Phillies -150 over Mets

[timbob]

Sports Wagers

Florida +111 over CHICAGO Pinnacle
Carlos Zambrano missed the minimum 15 days and makes his return here in this matinee game. He made just one rehab start, where he pitched four innings and allowed one run with four strikeouts and three walks for Class-A Peoria. Zambrano's control has taken a turn for the worse this season and in six June starts he struck out 22 while walking 18. Zambrano also has a history of imploding in day games. Even when he was a dominating pitcher he always had a bunch of miserable performances in day games. When we look back at his past three years in day games, Zambrano started 29 games and allowed 207 hits and 97 ER in 169.2 innings for a BAA of .304 and an ERA of 5.15. His excessive workload over the years has worn him down and it’s not like he’s pitching for the Phillies. Only two teams in the entire league have fewer wins than the Cubs. The Marlins had won six straight before the break and Javier Vazquez has found something. Vazquez reportedly is pitching more with his lower body now, an approach that might have helped him rejuvenate his skills. In fact, over his last five starts, Vazquez has struck out 19 and walked just three. He’s allowed a total of four earned runs in those five games and zero earned runs in three of those five. It’s also worth noting that two of those five games were in Philadelphia and Texas and that’s where he allowed two earned runs in both games. Over his last five starts, Vazquez is pitching as good as anyone in the league right now and while one game could be considered a fluke, five in a row with a new approach cannot. Play: Florida +111 (Risking 2 units).

Cleveland –108 over BALTIMORE Pinnacle
Can someone please explain why Buck Showalter bats Nick Markakis second? Isn’t your #2 hitter the guy that moves runners over, bunts well and usually makes contact? Markakis does all that but he’s also hitting .292, has a .338 average with RISP and he’s a #3, 4, 5 or 6 hitter, not a #2. In any case, how can you argue with a manager that has his team losing nine in a row and 14 of the last 15 games? Losing is highly contagious and with each loss, winning the next day becomes even more difficult. Enter Alfredo Simon who had 17 saves and a 4.93 ERA in 49 IP for the O’s last year. The irony was he lost his closer's job in Aug, which was his best month of the year (121 BPV). 'Twas poetic justice, as he doesn't own skills for closer job or any job for that matter. Simon was sitting in a Dominican Republic jail as a shooting suspect just a few months ago and rejoined the team in late May (guess he was cleared). He’s appeared in just eight games and has posted a WHIP of 1.65 and an ERA of 4.85. His xERA keeps rising and is now at 6.09 over the past month. Simon is a career minor-league, who has spent very limited time at this level and has never been able to stick. He’s 30-years old and has only 94 career IP in the majors. Carlos Carrasco has shown significant monthly skill growth this season. His BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) by month: 32, 70, 99. This growth has come from improved control and a 55%+ GB%. He has a ton more upside than Simon and the Indians as a whole are in a much better state of mind than these plunging Orioles. Play: Cleveland –108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Chicago +142 over DETROIT Pinnacle
If whacking Justin Verlander doesn’t get this offense of the White Sox going, nothing will. That eight-run outburst last night has to carry some momentum with it because Verlander has been as close to untouchable as any pitcher this season. Now the South Side will face Max Scherzer and while Scherzer is 10-4, he certainly does not deserve to be. Scherzer has been hit hard in five of his past nine starts in which he’s allowed five runs or more all of them. He has a GB/LD/FB profile of 37%/20%/44% and an 11% HR/FB rate. We all know the White Sox can go deep with a number of different players and that should bode well here against Scherzer’s fly-ball tendencies (he’s surrendered 16 jacks already). Besides Scherzer’s struggles, the Tigers are not looking good these days. They took three of four against the Royals before the break but each win was uglier than the last one. Other than beating the Royals, the Tigers have just one other series win since June 17 and over that span the Tigers are averaging just 3.5 RPG on a .650 OPS. Edwin Jackson had a huge second half last season (103 BPV). This season, his skills have continued along the same level with the exception of a bad April (5.86 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 54 BPV). His post-April BPV by month: 98, 92, 122. Overall, a 35% hit rate has kept his ERA above 4.00. Now's the time to target him because he’s way undervalued and he could easily dominate these Tigers. Big overlay. Play: Chicago +142 (Risking 2 units).

Saskatchewan +109 over HAMILTON Pinnacle
Both teams are 0-2 so this one could have a serious impact on how the rest of the season goes for both teams. Having said that, we have no interest whatsoever in laying anything with the TiCats, a team that is not only laboring on the field but the reports are that the finger pointing in the locker room has already begun. Hamilton has some talent but they also may have loaded up on guys past their prime and on the downslide of their career. Then there’s QB Kevin Glenn with his two TD’s and four picks. He’s feeling the pressure of not producing along with a whole bunch of other guys and it’s not going to take much for the locals to get restless and start booing until their blue in the face. Frankly, the Cats have shown very little in two games against Edmonton and Winnipeg and that 28-10 loss to the Eskies is actually a flattering score when you consider that Hamilton was outgained by nearly 300 yards. The Roughies are 0-2 but they lost to the two top teams in the league thus far in Edmonton and Montreal. In their loss against Edmonton (42-28), the Riders outgained the Eskimos by three yards and they moved the ball against the Als as well. Saskatchewan has its problems too but they are not as troubling as the Cats problems. The Riders have faced the top two passers in the league and take a big step down in class here. They’re also getting used to a new system and overall they just look a whole lot better than these troubled Cats. Play: Saskatchewan +109 (Risking 2 units).

[timbob]

THE WINNING ADDICT

“Grab Your Nuts” Play of the Year for Saturday, July 16th

Okay folks, when I tell you that I’m personally hammering this play, you’re just going to have to take my word for it and make a huge play for yourself. My July has been so brutal that I don’t even want to think about it, and it makes me bitter that I didn’t release the Giants tonight because I was simply waiting on this play to come through before moving on anything else.

Seriously though, grab your nuts and put down the biggest bet you’ve ever made, because this bad boy is going to be a winner. You might laugh when you keep reading this and recognize what this bet actually is, but it is the best bet in sports—and it only happens once for the men’s game and once for the men’s game every 4 years. Today, we are taking advantage of the women’s game, and the setup is perfect, as France and Sweden are both teams that can find the back of the net. Before we go any farther, lets set up this situation so you realize just how much of a lock this is.

Remember when you played in a meaningless game as a kid or figured out that you were already going to lose something—so you just said screw it and gave up? You would say, “Oh, I’m not even trying,” or “Well I’m going to lose anyway and I don’t even care.” Well, whatever lame-ass excuse you made about being a loser, we are riding that theory today and TAKING THE OVER IN THE 3RD PLACE GAME OF THE WOMEN’S WORLD CUP.

If you remember last summer, the 3rd place game in the men’s World Cup featured an extremely disappointed, frustrated Germany team against Uruguay, a team that made a great run but was still bummed about about bowing out in the semis. Well, the same situation presents itself here, as France went farther than they ever had and overall has to be pleased with what they accomplished, while Sweden played a horrible game against Japan after giving away an early lead. Now they are stuck in the 3rd place game.

This will be a wide open game with lots of scoring, and I think France wins this 3-1, but there is no way this game is not going OVER. The total is sitting at 2.5 (-135) where I am looking, and I just can’t get enough of this play. I have to take a line from one of the best gambling movies of all time, Rounders.

Matt Damon: “You don’t often hear much about guys who took their shot and missed.”

Maybe those aren’t the exact words, but the point I’m making is: I am taking a huge shot personally and my bankroll is at risk big time today, and I am not missing my shot. I am not losing my whole Bankroll to the big, bad Russian “Teddy KGB,” and instead I am taking down the books with a 25 unit winner.

Does this mean I am risking 33.75 units to win 25 units? Yes it does.

I Have over 1/3 of my bankroll at risk on this game, because I am assured this game is going over. We have seen lots of scoring in this Women’s World Cup past the opening round of games, and this situation has hit at a ridiculous rate over the past 3 world cups for both the men and the women. 2.5 in the 3rd place game? Jump on it now with as much as you possibly can.

Like I said, grab your nuts and put as much as you can find on the line.

OVER 2.5 GOALS FRANCE VS SWEDEN –135 (RISK 33.75 units to win 25 units) 11:30 A.M.

[timbob]

Sport System Specialists
Yesterday 3-3 -26,47
Overall since jun.17 +108,60

PHI -1,5 +125 risking 6,75

NYY -1,5 +115 risking 30

BOS ml +130 risking 3

ATL -1,5 +130 risking 3

CIN ml +120 risking 30

TEX -1,5 +165 risking 3