7-16-11

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Ben Burns

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Ben Burns

10* MLB* EARLY MAIN EVENT*
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BIG AL

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Our 3 selections include the Tigers, Twins and the 'under' in the Dodgers/Diamondbacks game.

At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Chicago White Sox. It's an obscure category, but there aren't many 20-game winners in MLB history whose ERAs were above four runs in that season, and only three (Bobo Newsom, Ray Kremer, and Vern Kennedy) whose ERAs were above 4.5 runs the year they won 20 games. History, meet Detroit's Max Scherzer who finished the first half of the season with a 10-4 record and an ERA of 4.69. The fact that the All-Star break is actually past the halfway point of the season hurts Scherzer's chances of becoming a 20-game winner, but that goal is certainly within reach, especially if the Tigers continue to be in a tight race for a pennant the rest of the way. Opposing him will be a righthander who was involved in a big three-team trade back in 2009 that also involved Scherzer as the Sox' Edwin Jackson goes to the mound for his 18th start and it's been mostly a forgettable campaign for Jackson as he is just 5-8 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Scherzer's chances to improve on his 10 wins are increased by the fact that he has a 2-1 record and 2.63 ERA in 38 career innings vs. Chicago. Take the Tigers.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Kansas City Royals. After stumbling out of the blocks to begin the season, Minnesota's veteran righthander Carl Pavano has really excelled since the end of May. To give you some idea of how the Minnesota hurler has turned the season around, through his last start of May Pavano had six starts (out of 11) where he gave up more than three earned runs and he compiled a 2-5 record in the process. Since the beginning of June however, Pavano has only had one such start (out of seven) and he's gone 4-1 during this time. Lefthander Jeff Francis' first season outside of Colorado has not gone very well as the seven-year veteran is just 3-10 with a 4.60 ERA in his first season in Kansas City. Since coming out of nowhere to win 17 games for the Rockies in 2007, Francis has gone just 11-26 since then with an ERA of around five runs and although injuries have hampered his progress, Francis is apparently healthy this season and has still struggled in most of his starts. Since the beginning of June, the Royals have lost six of Francis' seven starts. Take the Twins.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamonbacks 'under' the total. Dodgers righthander Hiroki Kuroda probably would love to get on a winning team before his time in professional baseball is up. The Japanese import didn't come to the Major Leagues until he was 33 years old and that was four seasons ago, and it seems like almost the moment he arrived in Southern California, Kuroda has been a tough-luck starter as his MLB ERA is a very nice 3.50, but he's only had one winning season, and that one - 2009 - was barely that as he was just 8-7 that year. This season it's more of the same as Kuroda is just 6-10 despite an outstanding 3.06 ERA in 18 starts covering almost 115 innings, and now that the Dodgers are in somewhat of a financial mess and might be looking to move some high-priced veterans by the deadline, Kuroda can hold out some hope that he might end up with a contender. Starters in Kuroda's situation often try to "showcase" their talent in their starts immediately after the break, and tonight is a perfect opportunity for the veteran against a team he's very familiar with and with extra time off. It's been nine days since Kuroda last went to the mound, and he loves these situations as in his career, Kuroda is 7-4 with a 2.28 ERA in 14 starts with six or more days of rest. That's by far the best split for him in that category. The under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two squads, and is 7-2 in Los Angeles' last nine games overall. Further, San Diego has gone 'under' the total in 32 of 50 games when favored -150 or less, and is 37-26 'under' in nighttime starts. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

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WAYNE ROOT

MILLIONAIRE Angels ML
BILLIONAIRE Diamondbacks ML
NO LIMIT Yankees ML

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Ben Burns

10* "EARLY" O/U BEST BET! (EPIC 24-4 RUN!)
Boston Red Sox Under