7-19-11

[timbob]

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Note:

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[timbob]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
New York Yankees Send Colon To Hill Against Tampa Bay
By: Michael Robinson



New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (+103, 8.5)

New York Yankees fans are getting very nervous about the recent pitching of veteran Bartolo Colon. He’ll face the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday night in Game 2 of this 4-game series.

First pitch from Tropicana Field will be at 4:10 p.m. (PT). Well rested Jeremy Hellickson goes for the Rays.

New York (55-37) began this series on Monday night trailing the Red Sox by 1.5 games in the AL East. Tampa (50-43) is seven back.

The Monday result was still pending with the Yanks a 130 favorite behind A.J. Burnett. The Rays were tired heading into that game, playing a 16-inning marathon with Boston on Sunday night (1-0 loss).

New York is 2-2 since the All-Star break, winning the last two at Toronto after dropping the first two. Tampa lost two of three overall hosting the Red Sox.

Colon (6-5, 3.47 ERA) pitched last Thursday in Toronto, surrendering eight runs while lasting less than an inning. Fortunately for his ERA, only three runs were earned, but it still ended in a 16-7 loss.

The 38-year-old right-hander said he’s still thinking about his hamstring, although it doesn’t hurt. That injury caused him to miss a few weeks in June.

Colon was one of the surprise stories in baseball, but has seen his ERA rise from 2.88 in his last two starts. He also allowed five runs over 5 2/3 innings against Tampa in his final start before the break. That’s his only appearance versus the Rays this year.

Colon is 3-1 with a 3.52 ERA in nine lifetime starts at Tropicana Field. However, the last one came in 2009 while with the White Sox.

Hellickson (8-7, 3.21 ERA) hasn’t made a start since July 3. He was scheduled to face the Yankees on July 8, but was rained out. The rest could be good timing with the rookie at over 103 innings on the year.

The 24-year-old did finally get some run support in his last outing, an 8-3 win over St. Louis. The team scored one total run in his prior four starts, going 0-4 despite having three quality starts.

The right-hander has pitched well everywhere, but even better at home with batters hitting .204 and his ERA 2.94. The team is 3-4 in his home starts, run support an issue again, with the ‘under’ going 6-1.

This is Hellickson’s first start against the Yankees this year. He did face them in a relief appearance at the Bronx last season, getting the win despite allowing two earned runs over 3 1/3 innings.

New York is 3-2 against Tampa Bay this year with 13 games still to play. The teams split a 2-game series in Florida in May. The Rays went 5-4 in home games versus New York last year.

Tampa Bay has a much worse record at home (22-23) than on the road (28-20). Team profits follow suit at -8.2 units at home and +10.3 away.

The ‘under’ is a whopping 31-13-1 in Tampa’s home games this year. The offense is mostly to blame, scoring 3.36 runs per game there, second-worst in the AL behind Seattle.

New York is 25-18 on the road, translating into +5.4 units. The ‘under’ is 16-5-1 in New York’s last 22 away games. Its road ERA is an impressive 3.38, ranked third in the AL.

The Yankees are playing without third baseman Alex Rodriguez (.852 OPS), going 4-2 since he went on the DL. Tampa Bay outfielder Matt Joyce (.874 OPS) was questionable on Monday after being relegated to pinch-hitting duties on Sunday. Both players are dealing with knee injuries.

Weather is not a factor inside the domed stadium. Tampa will end this series with its two horses, David Price and James Shields. The Yanks will counter with Freddy Garcia and ace CC Sabathia.

[timbob]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
New York Yankees Send Colon To Hill Against Tampa Bay
By: Michael Robinson



New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (+103, 8.5)

New York Yankees fans are getting very nervous about the recent pitching of veteran Bartolo Colon. He’ll face the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday night in Game 2 of this 4-game series.

First pitch from Tropicana Field will be at 4:10 p.m. (PT). Well rested Jeremy Hellickson goes for the Rays.

New York (55-37) began this series on Monday night trailing the Red Sox by 1.5 games in the AL East. Tampa (50-43) is seven back.

The Monday result was still pending with the Yanks a 130 favorite behind A.J. Burnett. The Rays were tired heading into that game, playing a 16-inning marathon with Boston on Sunday night (1-0 loss).

New York is 2-2 since the All-Star break, winning the last two at Toronto after dropping the first two. Tampa lost two of three overall hosting the Red Sox.

Colon (6-5, 3.47 ERA) pitched last Thursday in Toronto, surrendering eight runs while lasting less than an inning. Fortunately for his ERA, only three runs were earned, but it still ended in a 16-7 loss.

The 38-year-old right-hander said he’s still thinking about his hamstring, although it doesn’t hurt. That injury caused him to miss a few weeks in June.

Colon was one of the surprise stories in baseball, but has seen his ERA rise from 2.88 in his last two starts. He also allowed five runs over 5 2/3 innings against Tampa in his final start before the break. That’s his only appearance versus the Rays this year.

Colon is 3-1 with a 3.52 ERA in nine lifetime starts at Tropicana Field. However, the last one came in 2009 while with the White Sox.

Hellickson (8-7, 3.21 ERA) hasn’t made a start since July 3. He was scheduled to face the Yankees on July 8, but was rained out. The rest could be good timing with the rookie at over 103 innings on the year.

The 24-year-old did finally get some run support in his last outing, an 8-3 win over St. Louis. The team scored one total run in his prior four starts, going 0-4 despite having three quality starts.

The right-hander has pitched well everywhere, but even better at home with batters hitting .204 and his ERA 2.94. The team is 3-4 in his home starts, run support an issue again, with the ‘under’ going 6-1.

This is Hellickson’s first start against the Yankees this year. He did face them in a relief appearance at the Bronx last season, getting the win despite allowing two earned runs over 3 1/3 innings.

New York is 3-2 against Tampa Bay this year with 13 games still to play. The teams split a 2-game series in Florida in May. The Rays went 5-4 in home games versus New York last year.

Tampa Bay has a much worse record at home (22-23) than on the road (28-20). Team profits follow suit at -8.2 units at home and +10.3 away.

The ‘under’ is a whopping 31-13-1 in Tampa’s home games this year. The offense is mostly to blame, scoring 3.36 runs per game there, second-worst in the AL behind Seattle.

New York is 25-18 on the road, translating into +5.4 units. The ‘under’ is 16-5-1 in New York’s last 22 away games. Its road ERA is an impressive 3.38, ranked third in the AL.

The Yankees are playing without third baseman Alex Rodriguez (.852 OPS), going 4-2 since he went on the DL. Tampa Bay outfielder Matt Joyce (.874 OPS) was questionable on Monday after being relegated to pinch-hitting duties on Sunday. Both players are dealing with knee injuries.

Weather is not a factor inside the domed stadium. Tampa will end this series with its two horses, David Price and James Shields. The Yanks will counter with Freddy Garcia and ace CC Sabathia.

[timbob]

Tuesday's Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Ubaldo Jimenez (5-8, 4.08 ERA), Colorado Rockies

If the Colorado Rockies really intend to move Jimenez before the trade deadline, they have to love how good he’s looked lately. Jimenez was a little shaky early in his last start and gave up a couple of runs before settling down to keep the Brewers off the board the rest of the way.

He is working on a 2.79 ERA over his last three trips to the hill and has allowed just one homer in his last six outings.

Alexi Ogando (9-3, 2.92 ERA), Texas Rangers

Ogando hasn’t been as untouchable recently as he was earlier in the year, but his numbers speak for themselves. He won his last two starts before the All-Star break and was lights-out in a brief appearance in the Midsummer Classic.

Ogando has allowed more than three runs just once in his last seven outings and has already beaten the Angels once this season.


SLUMPING

Kyle Lohse (8-6, 3.32 ERA), St. Louis Cardinals

July hasn’t been good to Lohse. After putting together a solid start to the year, he was hammered in both of his starts this month, going 0-2 with an 8.25 ERA.

Lohse allowed seven earned runs over 6 2/3 innings in a loss to Arizona the last time he took the hill and he has only one win on his record since the end of May.

Jake Peavy (4-3, 5.27 ERA), Chicago White Sox

Jake Peavy isn’t back to 100 percent after his shoulder injury and he knows he’s going to have to change his approach to be successful for the rest of the season. He was drilled for 10 hits and five earned runs over 4 1/3 innings in his last start and gave up five runs in six innings in the outing before that.

‘‘The last few starts was a grind physically,” Peavy told reporters after the team pushed his turn in the rotation from Sunday to Tuesday. ‘‘I don’t think that was any secret if you watched. I’m looking forward to getting pushed back and getting back on my feet.’’

[timbob]

HOT LINES

Tuesday's Best MLB Bets

Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins (-115, 8)

A simple turn around first base on Sunday may have completely changed the Cleveland Indians’ season.

Grady Sizemore felt the same sort of pain in his knee that kept him out of action for 10 months when he made the turn after a base hit and is now on the DL again. The team won’t know the extent of the injury until test results get back, but it doesn’t look good.

"There's a lot of concern," Sizemore said at Target Field on Monday morning. "I just hope I don't have to go through what I went through last year."

Meanwhile, now the Indians need to figure out what to do with Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo, who’s likely out until September, with less than two weeks to work with before the trade deadline.

The Indians might be good fade bait for the next few days until they get a game plan together.

PICK: Minnesota


Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays (-108, 8)

While the Blue Jays earned a split in their series against the New York Yankees, there were a lot of insinuations that they “could” be guilty of stealing signs.

"Sometimes we have inclinations that things might be happening in certain ballparks and we're aware of it, and we try to protect ourselves," Yanks manager Joe Girardi told reporters. "The last thing you want is for a hitter to know what's coming."

There have been rumors about the Jays being great at stealing signs since the days when Paul Molitor and Joe Carter were swinging their big bats, so this shouldn’t be shocking. They're just good at what they do.

At any rate, the Jays are hitting .261 and averaging 4.96 runs per game at home. However, they should have their hands full with Michael Pineda, who bounced back with a great performance at the All-Star Game.

PICK: Under

[timbob]

LADY LUCK

Tuesday's Best WNBA Bets

Seattle Storm at Chicago Sky (-3, 143.5)

If the Chicago Sky could get anything done on the road, they’d be in the mix for one of the top spots in the Eastern Conference. The reality is, they’re 1-6 away from home and still head into Tuesday’s game just a game under .500 outright and at 8-7 against the spread.

At home, they’re a completely different team at 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the number. Turnovers are at the root of the problem as the club gives the ball away 18.5 times per game – worst in the league. The Sky was in its last game until the end, but couldn’t get over the hump in the fourth quarter thanks to some more untimely turnovers.

"We're leading the league in turnovers and those are points you end up missing," forward Michelle Snow told reporters. "With those additional points, it could've been a different game."

The problem is, they’re up against the league’s best scoring defense in this one and the Storm haven’t lost four games in a row since 2009. They’ll be hungry.

PICK: Seattle


New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun (-5, 153.5)

New York Liberty bettors may have Cappie Pondexter’s grandmother to thank for their latest payday.

Following New York’s recent loss to Connecticut, her grandmother told her to start being more aggressive. Pondexter promptly led the team with 18 points on 6-of-11 shooting before taking a seat in the fourth quarter of an 88-57 blowout of Tulsa.

“It was kind of funny hearing her say that,” Pondexter told reporters. “You’re going, and all of a sudden you hear this little old lady tell you something about the game of basketball. It’s like, ‘Okay, let me listen to her.’?”

The Liberty will be in good shape if she can keep rolling with that mentality. New York is riding a nice 8-1-1 run against the spread here and this is a winnable game for this team on the road.

PICK: New York

[timbob]

Tuesday’s Betting Tips: Rangers Favored To Extend Streak

Who's Hot

MLB: Florida has won nine of its last 10.

MLB: Boston has won 24 of its last 32 road games.

WNBA: Chicago has covered in six of its last eight home games.

Who’s Not

MLB: Seattle has dropped nine straight games overall.

MLB: Kansas City has won just five of its last 18 home games.

WNBA: Atlanta is 1-7-1 against the spread in its last nine contests.

Key Stat

11 – The Texas Rangers have recorded 11 straight victories heading into Tuesday’s road date with the Los Angeles Angels, tying the franchise’s second longest winning streak. The Rangers are set as a -130 favorite with Alexi Ogando on the hill. Ogando has won two straight and is looking for his 10th win of the season.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Sancho Lyttle, Atlanta Dream – Lyttle has missed about a month with a back injury but may play Tuesday against Indiana. Lyttle was averaging 12.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per game before hitting the shelf and the Dream are really missing her inside presence. Atlanta is currently set as a 2-point home underdog against Indiana.

Game Of The Day

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (+120, 7.5)

Notable Quotable

"It's definitely something we've talked about (falling behind). We know we have to fix it. We can't go into those lulls because it gives teams opportunities to get big leads on us. Even though we do come back, it's a lot of energy to do that and then sometimes it's difficult to get over the hump, tying it or taking the lead." – Seattle Storm point guard Sue Bird on losing consecutive games heading into Tuesday’s contest against Chicago as 3-point road underdogs.

Tips And Notes

New York Mets superstar Jose Reyes (hamstring) successfully got through a rehab start with Class-A Brooklyn over the weekend and could suit up with the big league club as soon as Tuesday. Mets manager Terry Collins expected Reyes just to play the one game in the minors and he looked good going 1-for-3 with a run scored. "I feel very good," the shortstop told reporters. "I'm happy that I don't feel anything in my leg, so I was able to test it out with no problems, so that's a good sign."

After being bombarded with questions about possible trades over the past few days, Chicago Cubs slugger Aramis Ramirez put the rumors to rest Monday saying that he won’t waive his no-trade clause. Ramirez will be a free agent in the offseason and is hitting .300 with 16 homers and 56 RBIs so far this season.

[timbob]

Fenimore The Great

Tuesday

4 Units Fla -135
3 Units Wash -145
5 Units Color -133
5 Units San Fran -136
7 Units Tor -108
4 Units Bost -111
6 Units NYY -111
4 Units CWS -115

[timbob]

Arthur Ralph Sports

681- 509 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Tues Marlins -140

[timbob]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Mets Monday night.

Tuesday it's the Mets. The deficit is 2487 sirignanos.

[timbob]

Hondo

Hondo, whose debt was down to 1,715 romanos after his big Giant score Sunday, had last night's play on the Pirates canceled because McDonald failed to ascend the hill in order to toe the slab.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will take a swing with Pineda and the Mariners -- 20 units. Also, the Blue Jays don't have the bats to beat Masterson, so he will drop another 20 on the Native Americans.

[timbob]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Tuesday

RSox/O's over 9.5

[golden contender]

GC MLB Play

Tuesday card has 3 Power System Plays. The 100% Totals system with a subset that averages 15.7 runs per game. A 100% Power System in the Cardinals at Mets game and a Double system MLB Live dog. MLB Free Play below


On Tuesday the free play is on The Florida Marlins. Game 954 at 7:10 eastern. The Marlins are back home off a make up game road in in New York vs the Mets. They come home to face a San Diego team that has struggled in the second half vs losing teams having lost 5 of 6 times. Florida has handled Losing teams quite well in the second half winning 7 of 8. The Padres have been pathetic at the plate averaging just 2.6 runs per game on .169 hitting the past 7 games. Florida was averaging over 6 runs per game heading in to Monday night. The Pitching match is very even with Stauffer for the Padres and Sanchez for Florida when we compare home to road era stats. Sanchez has been solid vs The Padres with a 2.19 era having allowed 3 runs in 12+ innings. Sanchez has also won 4 of 5 vs NL West teams. We will back Florida here for the free Play. On Tuesday the Triple pack includes a 100% totals system that averages 15.7 runs per game and a 100% system in the Cardinals at Mets game as well as a double system dog. Jump on and cash out on Tuesday. For the free Play take Florida. GC

[timbob]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Yankees -106 over TAMPA BAY

State of mind plays a role in a team’s performance and after a 16-inning, 1-0 loss on Sunday night that several players called the most devastating of the year, followed by a blown three-run lead last night, the Rays state of mind should be a concern for all TB backers. Jeremy Hellickson has put up some decent numbers (8-7, 3.21 ERA) but he’s not as good as the numbers suggest. He has upside for sure and it’s just his first season but some growing pains are forthcoming. His groundball/line-drive/flyball profile is trending the wrong way. On the year that GB/LD/FB profile looks like this: 33%/19%/48%, which is troubling to begin with but over the past month covering four starts it looks like this: 26%/21%/52% and one simply cannot keep balls in the yard with a profile like that (look for Mark Teixeira to end his HR drought). We also look at Hellickson’s FIP** (for explanation of FIP see bottom of these write-ups) and xFIP and see 4.32 and 4.83 resprctively. Bartolo Colon did not make it out of the first inning in his last start in Toronto but you can’t believe everything you read (meaning his pitching line). There was an error by Nunez that opened the floodgates and that was followed by three infield hits that were not even hits, they were taps or swinging bunts if you will. Colon suffered from pure bad luck and nothing more. Fact is, the guy was tremendous in the first half and his profile and/or skills have been near elite right across the board. The Yankees are rarely undervalued but that last outing against the Jays has Colon undervalued here against a fragile Rays club. Play: N.Y Yankees –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).


Texas –1 –105 over L.A. ANGELS

Some of you may not have the option to lay a single run so you can either pass or lay the –130 on the money line. This is what we call a FLUKE ALERT on Tyler Chatwood. Things seem to be going swimmingly for Chatwood. Called up to the Bigs barely a week into the season, Chatwood has made 17 starts, and that sub-4.00 ERA makes it seem like he should be due more than just his total of five wins. In reality, Chatwood is lucky to have five wins, as this is a skill set in need of more Triple-A refinement: His strikeout rate is far below what is necessary for prolonged MLB success. In fairness, his 2010 minor league numbers (in 74 IP) gave us fair warning. Perhaps more troubling is his control: through 99 IP, he's struck out and walked the same number of batters (52 K / 52 BB). He's done this honestly, for the most part with a hit%/strand% of 29%/75% and he's only slightly fortunate with a 7% hr/f. However, xERA is a full run and a half higher than his ERA and a -20 BPV gives very little hope for an immediate improvement. At this point in his professional career, Chatwood has logged more innings in the majors (99) than Double-A and Triple-A combined (74). Given his poor skills, he really does need more work before backers can count on him--but given his "success," that's not coming anytime soon. Our best advice is bail on Chatwood now; the ugliness could begin at any time. Play: Texas –1 –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).


PITTSBURGH +113 over Cincinnati

In case you’ve forgotten or just didn’t give a rat’s ass, let us bring you up to speed on the plight of Mike Leake. He had zero minor league experience before last season and more than held his own in the majors in the first half. He was shut down in August after a July and part of August that saw him post an ERA of 7.14. He started laboring badly at around the 90 innings pitched mark and what we’re seeing this year is a repeat of last. Leake is up to 94.2 frames and in his last two starts he’s allowed nine runs over 11.1 innings. He’s also surrendered three jacks over that span. Durability or lack thereof appears to be rearing its ugly head again and that has to be on Leake’s mind. The Pirates took the opener 2-0 last night. They are alone in first place in the NL Central and they’ve won two in a row and seven of 10. When General Manager Neal Huntington acquired James McDonald at the 2010 trade deadline for Octavio Dotel, few batted an eyelash until McDonald delivered a 3.52 ERA over 11 starts for the Pirates to close out the 2010 season. Interestingly enough, he’s allowed three runs or fewer in 10 straight starts and that includes a zero earned run performance against the Red Sox and one earned run allowed in 6.2 innings in Cincinnati. The Pirates have big momentum, they clearly are not at a disadvantage on the hill and they’re wrongly being billed as the pooch here. Play: Pittsburgh +113 (Risking 2 units).

[timbob]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Yankees -106 over TAMPA BAY

State of mind plays a role in a team’s performance and after a 16-inning, 1-0 loss on Sunday night that several players called the most devastating of the year, followed by a blown three-run lead last night, the Rays state of mind should be a concern for all TB backers. Jeremy Hellickson has put up some decent numbers (8-7, 3.21 ERA) but he’s not as good as the numbers suggest. He has upside for sure and it’s just his first season but some growing pains are forthcoming. His groundball/line-drive/flyball profile is trending the wrong way. On the year that GB/LD/FB profile looks like this: 33%/19%/48%, which is troubling to begin with but over the past month covering four starts it looks like this: 26%/21%/52% and one simply cannot keep balls in the yard with a profile like that (look for Mark Teixeira to end his HR drought). We also look at Hellickson’s FIP** (for explanation of FIP see bottom of these write-ups) and xFIP and see 4.32 and 4.83 resprctively. Bartolo Colon did not make it out of the first inning in his last start in Toronto but you can’t believe everything you read (meaning his pitching line). There was an error by Nunez that opened the floodgates and that was followed by three infield hits that were not even hits, they were taps or swinging bunts if you will. Colon suffered from pure bad luck and nothing more. Fact is, the guy was tremendous in the first half and his profile and/or skills have been near elite right across the board. The Yankees are rarely undervalued but that last outing against the Jays has Colon undervalued here against a fragile Rays club. Play: N.Y Yankees –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).


Texas –1 –105 over L.A. ANGELS

Some of you may not have the option to lay a single run so you can either pass or lay the –130 on the money line. This is what we call a FLUKE ALERT on Tyler Chatwood. Things seem to be going swimmingly for Chatwood. Called up to the Bigs barely a week into the season, Chatwood has made 17 starts, and that sub-4.00 ERA makes it seem like he should be due more than just his total of five wins. In reality, Chatwood is lucky to have five wins, as this is a skill set in need of more Triple-A refinement: His strikeout rate is far below what is necessary for prolonged MLB success. In fairness, his 2010 minor league numbers (in 74 IP) gave us fair warning. Perhaps more troubling is his control: through 99 IP, he's struck out and walked the same number of batters (52 K / 52 BB). He's done this honestly, for the most part with a hit%/strand% of 29%/75% and he's only slightly fortunate with a 7% hr/f. However, xERA is a full run and a half higher than his ERA and a -20 BPV gives very little hope for an immediate improvement. At this point in his professional career, Chatwood has logged more innings in the majors (99) than Double-A and Triple-A combined (74). Given his poor skills, he really does need more work before backers can count on him--but given his "success," that's not coming anytime soon. Our best advice is bail on Chatwood now; the ugliness could begin at any time. Play: Texas –1 –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).


PITTSBURGH +113 over Cincinnati

In case you’ve forgotten or just didn’t give a rat’s ass, let us bring you up to speed on the plight of Mike Leake. He had zero minor league experience before last season and more than held his own in the majors in the first half. He was shut down in August after a July and part of August that saw him post an ERA of 7.14. He started laboring badly at around the 90 innings pitched mark and what we’re seeing this year is a repeat of last. Leake is up to 94.2 frames and in his last two starts he’s allowed nine runs over 11.1 innings. He’s also surrendered three jacks over that span. Durability or lack thereof appears to be rearing its ugly head again and that has to be on Leake’s mind. The Pirates took the opener 2-0 last night. They are alone in first place in the NL Central and they’ve won two in a row and seven of 10. When General Manager Neal Huntington acquired James McDonald at the 2010 trade deadline for Octavio Dotel, few batted an eyelash until McDonald delivered a 3.52 ERA over 11 starts for the Pirates to close out the 2010 season. Interestingly enough, he’s allowed three runs or fewer in 10 straight starts and that includes a zero earned run performance against the Red Sox and one earned run allowed in 6.2 innings in Cincinnati. The Pirates have big momentum, they clearly are not at a disadvantage on the hill and they’re wrongly being billed as the pooch here. Play: Pittsburgh +113 (Risking 2 units).