7-23-11

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SPORTS PROFITS

$100* MLB* Baltimore Orioles-Los Angeles Angels UNDER 9.5
$100* MLB* Texas Rangers-Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 10

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Today's CFL Picks

SATURDAY, JULY 23
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (7/19)

Game 493-494: Winnipeg at Toronto (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 113.339; Toronto 111.037
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 2 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Toronto 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+3); Under

Game 495-496: Edmonton at Calgary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 112.077; Calgary 116.233
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 4; 58
Vegas Line: Calgary by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-3); Over

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Saturday's Betting Tips: Rangers Thrive In Extreme Heat

Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers – Temperatures will hover around 100 degrees when the game starts at 7:05 p.m. ET. Over the last four years, Texas is 77-54 in temperatures above 90 degrees, while Toronto is 8-14.

Who’s Hot

MLB: The Yankees are an incredible 28-5 in day games, and host Oakland at 1:05 p.m. ET.

MLB: Pittsburgh, 12-4 in its last 16 games against lefty starters, faces St. Louis lefty Jaime Garcia.

CFL: The Under is 6-1 in Winnipeg’s last seven games.

Who’s Not

MLB: The Orioles have lost Brad Bergesen’s last seven home starts.

MLB: Colorado is 3-11 in Jason Hammel’s last 14 starts.

CFL: Edmonton is 1-6 ATS in its last seven meetings with Calgary.

Key Stat

.111 -- Texas slugger Josh Hamilton’s average in day games, compared to .365 at night. Hamilton has 13 homers at night, none in the day games. He has started using eye drops, eyelid scrubs and sunglasses to fix his daytime woes.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Phillies closer Brad Lidge, sidelined all season with a rotator cuff strain, was activated Friday. He has 99 saves in three seasons in Philadelphia. Over Lidge’s eight-game minor league rehab stint, he posted a 3.52 ERA and struck out 10 in 7 2/3 innings.

Game Of The Day

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (115, 7.5)
The Cards' Jaime Garcia (9-4) faces the Bucs' Kevin Correia (11-7) in a key NL Central series.

Notable Quotable

"I think any deal within the NL East will carry some sort of premium -- not necessarily one that is prohibitive, but something more than if sent elsewhere.” – an NL East executive to ESPN.com, talking about trade possibilities for Mets All-Star outfielder Carlos Beltran. The Phillies and Braves are among the interested teams.

Tips And Notes

On top of the scorcher in Arlington, Tex., Saturday temperatures will be in the 90s for five MLB games in outdoor stadiums. Here’s a look at gametime temperatures and each team’s four-year record in 90-plus degree heat.

San Diego at Philadelphia, 4:10 p.m. ET, 98 degrees: Phillies are 20-16, Padres are 9-13.

Atlanta at Cincinnati, 4:10 p.m. ET, 92 degrees: Braves are 29-21, Reds are 6-9.

Oakland at New York Yankees, 1:05 p.m. ET, 95 degrees: Yankees are 21-12, A’s are 13-20.

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore, 7:05 p.m. ET, 97 degrees: Angels are 11-10, Orioles are 22-33.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City, 7:10 p.m. ET, 96 degrees: Royals are 23-27, Rays are 7-12.

There must be some good karma in Milwaukee; reliever Francisco Rodriguez says he doesn't mind not being the primary closer. "Somtimes you have to embrace your role and take care of what you have instead of worrying about what you don't have," K-Rod, traded by the Mets over the All-Star break, told MLB.com. With John Axford closing and Rodriguez pitching the 8th, the Brewers have the bullpen arms to win the crowded NL Central race.

The Cubs didn't make an error in Friday's 4-2 win over Houston, and that was newsworthy. They had made an error in their nine previous games, the team's longest-such streak since 1987. Another good sign for the Cubbies: Aramis Ramirez's hot bat. Since June 25, he has 13 homers and an .860 slugging percentage.

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Saturday's Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Jaime Garcia (9-4, 3.11 ERA), St. Louis Cardinals

Sure, he’s not Albert Pujols but Cardinals fans have to be pretty happy about St. Louis locking up this 25-year-old righty for the next four years.

Garcia signed a $27.5 million contract extension a little over a week ago and the payday doesn’t appear to be a distraction. The second year hurler is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over his last three starts.

The Cards are also 3-1 in his last four appearances and the under is 2-0 in his last two trips to the bump.

Jeff Niemann (4-4, 3.94 ERA), Tampa Bay Rays

With all the star power in the Rays rotation, it’s easy to forget about Niemann. He’s not workhorse like James Shields, the franchise face like David Price or the future ace like Jeremy Hellickson.

But that doesn’t mean bettors should ignore his talents. The lanky right-hander went eight innings, striking out 10 and holding the mighty Red Sox scoreless in his last start.

That lowered his ERA this month down to 0.84 in 21 1/3 innings of work. The Rays are 4-1 in his outings and the under is 3-0 in his last three starts.


SLUMPING

Wandy Rodriguez (6-6, 3.67 ERA), Houston Astros

The Astros ace is having a bad month. Rodriguez is carrying a 7.41 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP into Saturday’s start against the Cubs.

Houston is 0-3 in the lefty’s last three appearances and 1-4 in his last five trips to the mound.

Ted Lilly (6-10, 4.83 ERA), Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have lost five of Lilly's last six starts. He gave up two homers in his last outing against Arizona and has now served up 21 dingers this season.

Over his last five starts covering 32 2/3 innings, Lilly has yielded 25 earned runs. Opponents are hitting .273 against him. Over the last six weeks, his ERA has risen from 3.98 to 4.83.

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Saturday's Best MLB Bets

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles (-105, 9.5)

It’s risky backing someone who lasted 1/3 of an inning in his last start, but Joel Pineiro should bounce back against the last-place Orioles. After all, he hadn’t lost since June 5 before last Sunday’s disaster in Oakland.

And the Angels are still 12-3 in Pineiro’s last 15 starts against losing teams.

This is more of a play against Baltimore’s Brad Bergesen. He made his first start since May 28 last Monday against Boston, and it wasn’t pretty. He gave up eight hits and six runs (four earned) in five innings.

It’s probably just a matter of time before Bergesen is demoted from the rotation again. The Orioles have lost his last seven starts at Camden Yards.

And we're getting good value with a far superior team.

PICK: Angels


Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds (-120, 8.5)

The last time Derek Lowe faced Cincinnati, on May 28, the Reds pounded him for seven hits and five earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. Lowe also walked five batters.

And more recently, Lowe has been getting by on excessive run support. He’s 2-1 over his last three starts despite a 5.60 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP. He’s allowed 23 hits in 17 2/3 innings.

Homer Bailey is coming off an impressive 7 1/3 innings in which he held St. Louis to one run on three hits.

The Reds are 17-5 in Bailey’s last 22 home starts.

PICK: Reds

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Today's MLB Picks
Detroit at Minnesota

The Twins look to build on their 14-4 record in Scott Baker's last 18 starts as a home favorite from -110 to -150. Minnesota is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 23
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Houston at Chicago Cubs (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.072; Cubs (Wells) 14.578
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-115); N/A

Game 953-954: Atlanta at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.365; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.841
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105); Under

Game 955-956: San Diego at Philadelphia (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 16.108; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.531
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-145); Over

Game 957-958: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.574; Pittsburgh (Correia) 14.772
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); Under

Game 959-960: NY Mets at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Capuano) 15.845; Florida (Hensley) 14.661
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Under

Game 961-962: Colorado at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 14.178; Arizona (Collmenter) 15.317
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-145); Over

Game 963-964: Milwaukee at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 15.966; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.114
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+115); Under

Game 965-966: Washington at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gorzelanny) 14.405; LA Dodgers (Lilly) 14.996
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Over

Game 967-968: Oakland at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Harden) 16.955; NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.323
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+160); Over

Game 969-970: Detroit at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Penny) 14.888; Minnesota (Baker) 15.206
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-135); Under

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Jackson) 14.327; Cleveland (Huff) 15.373
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Under

Game 973-974: LA Angels at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Pineiro) 15.828; Baltimore (Bergesen) 13.621
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-115); Over

Game 975-976: Seattle at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Beavan) 13.653; Boston (Beckett) 16.475
Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-270); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-270); Over

Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.567; Kansas City (Francis) 14.853
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); Under

Game 979-930: Toronto at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Villanueva) 15.515; Texas (Harrison) 16.674
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-165); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-165); Under

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Arthur Ralph Sports

684- 511 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one 10-2 run Sat: Giants -140

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Hondo

Hondo, who's on fire -- just like everyone else -- managed to lose anyway last night when the Giants stumbled against the Brewers to raise the debt to 1,785 mauchs.

Today, Mr. Aitch will try a day/night, fave-'dog, double-dip delight with the Phillies and Jays -- 10 units apiece on Kendrick and Villanueva.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty was off the last three days so he had no play Friday and likes the Astros Saturday.

The deficit is 2,437 sirignanos.

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Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Phillies -145 over Padres

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Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Phillies -145 over Padres

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Cleveland Insider

RBC Canadian Open
3rd Round Matchups

Ernie Els -125 over Sean OHair
Kevin Na -125 over Charlie Wi
Bo Van Pelt -125 over Spencer Levin
Geoff Ogilvy +0.5(-140) over Chad Campbell

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JOE WIZ

DAILY FREE PICK

Under 7 runs Washington and L.A. Dodgers

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MLB
Write-Up


Saturday, July 23

Hot pitchers
-- Kendrick is 2-0, 3.41 in his last five starts. Latos has a 3.10 RA but no wins in his last three starts.
-- JGarcia is 2-1, 2.37 in his last three starts.
-- Hensley tossed five shutout innings in his first 2011 start, which was also against the Mets.
-- Collmenter threw 14 scoreless innings in his last two starts.
-- Vogelsong is 1-0, 2.21 in his last three starts.
-- Gorzelanny has a 3.27 RA in his last four starts.

-- Baker was 4-1, 1.50 in his last five starts before going on DL. Penny is 2-0, 3.38 in his last four starts.
-- Jackson is 2-1, 2.48 in his last four starts. Huff blanked Minnesota for seven innings in his first 2011 start.
-- Beckett is 2-0, 1.71 in his last three starts. Beaven is 1-0, 2.70 in his first three major league starts.
-- Niemann is 2-0, 0.84 in his last three starts.
-- Harrison is 3-0, 1.27 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Wells is 0-3, 7.58 in his last nine starts. WRodriguez is 0-2. 7.41 in his last three outings.
-- Bailey is 1-4, 4.95 in his last six starts. Lowe has a 5.90 RA in his last seven starts.
-- Correia is 3-3, 5.48 in his last eight starts.
-- Capuano is 2-2, 4.74 in his last four starts.
-- Hammel is 1-3, 6.43 in his last five starts.
-- Wolf is 0-3, 5.60 in his last four starts.
-- Lilly is 1-5, 7.24 in his last six starts.

-- Burnett is 1-2, 4.88 in his last five starts. Harden is 1-1, 5.00 in three starts for the A's this season.
-- Bergesen is 0-3, 10.93 in his last three starts. Pineiro has a 6.92 RA in his last five starts.
-- Royals lost last six Francis starts (0-5, 5.45).
-- Toronto lost last three Villanueva starts (0-1, 3.86).

Totals
-- Three of last four Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Five of Reds' last six games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in San Diego's last eight road games.
-- Three of Pirates' last four games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Mets' last eight games.
-- Four of last five Colorado games went over the total.
-- Five of Giants' last six home games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Dodger home games stayed under the total.

-- Five of last six Oakland road games went over the total.
-- Minnesota's last three games all went over the total.
-- White Sox' last six road games stayed under the total.
-- Orioles' last three games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in Seattle's last seven road games.
-- Six of last seven Kansas City games stayed under the total.
-- Toronto's last four games went over the total.

Hot Teams
-- Pirates are 9-4 in their last thirteen games.
-- Phillies won 14 of their last 17 home games. Padres won three of their last four games, allowing nine runs.
-- Mets won three of their last four games.
-- Braves won 15 of their last 20 games.
-- Colorado won three of its last four games.
-- Dodgers won four of their last five home games.
-- Milwaukee won five of its last seven games. Giants won nine of their last thirteen games.

-- Bronx won 14 of its last 17 home games.
-- Red Sox won five of their last six games.
-- Texas won its last eight home games, scoring 65 runs. Toronto won eight of its last eleven games.
-- Angels won their last three games, scoring 16 runs.
-- Minnesota won 14 of its last 22 games. Tigers won four of five.
-- Royals won their last three games, allowing seven runs.

Cold Teams
-- Astros lost 10 of their last 12 road games. Cubs lost four of their last six games.
-- Cincinnati is 6-10 in its last 16 games.
-- Cardinals lost six of their last nine road games, but won last two.
-- Florida lost its last four games, outscored 30-11.
-- Arizona is 5-8 in its last thirteen home games.
-- Nationals lost seven of their last eleven games.

-- Oakland lost 10 of its last 12 road games (3-2 last five overall).
-- Baltimore lost eight of its last eleven home games.
-- White Sox are 5-8 in their last 13 games. Cleveland lost its last four home games, allowing 26 runs.
-- Seattle lost its last 13 games in a row, outscored 48-22 in its eight games since the All-Star break.
-- Tampa Bay is 7-11 in its last eighteen games.

Umpires
-- Hst-Chi-- Five of last six Bucknor games went over total.
-- Atl-Cin-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Rapuano games.
-- SD-Phil-- Underdog won four of last six Dreckman games; in his last seven games, over is 4-1-2.
-- StL-Pitt-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Bell games.
-- NY-Fla-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Guccione games.
-- Col-Az-- Last six Cousins games stayed under the total.
-- Mil-SF-- Four of last five Holbrook games stayed under total.
-- Wsh-LA-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Fletcher games.

-- A's-NY-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven BWelke games.
-- Det-Min-- Four of last five Miller games stayed under total.
-- Chi-Clev-- Last five Hoye games all went over the total.
-- LA-Balt-- Under is 8-0-1 in last nine Gibson games.
-- Sea-Bos-- Last three Timmons games went over, after previous nine had stayed under.
-- TB-KC-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten TBarrett games.
-- Tor-Tex-- Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Randazzo games.

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Silver Key Pick for Saturday ML Baseball

BOSTON BECKETT -R -245 over Seattle