7-24-11

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Sunday Night Baseball: Braves at Reds

Atlanta Braves (-115, 9) at Cincinnati Reds

The wild-card leading Atlanta Braves close out their three-game series at Great American Ballpark against the Cincinnati Reds in this week's ESPN Sunday night game of the week.

EVERYTHING'S JUST BEACHY

Brandon Beachy's first start since the All-Star Break was just another day at the beach - at least for the other team. Beachy was tagged for six earned runs on 4 2/3 innings in a 12-3 Atlanta loss at Colorado.

The good news for Atlanta is that the start appears to be an aberration. It came on 10 days’ rest and at Coors Field. Before that Beachy had won his last three decisions and had an ERA of 1.99 over his last four starts. On the season Beachy is 3-2 with a 3.75 ERA. He is even better on the road (2-1, 3.12 ERA).

WHAT'CHU TALKIN' ' BOUT WILLIS?

The Dontrelle Willis experiment has landed in Cincinnati. Willis, now with his fourth different team in five seasons, joined the Reds rotation after being called up from the minors in the second week of July.

Cincinnati lost both games Willis started but he could hardly be blamed. A pitch count and rain delays prevented Willis from getting beyond six innings in either start but he only allowed four earned runs in 10 2/3 innings of work. He struck out nine and allowed nine hits while walking four.

Willis doesn’t look like the phenom from Florida in 2005 but he doesn’t look like the colossal failure from Detroit and Arizona from 2008-2010 either.

OPPOSITES ATTRACT

It's not exactly the unstoppable force against the immovable object but something will have to give when the Reds’ offense (sixth best in baseball) runs into Atlanta’s pitching (fifth best in baseball). On the flip side, Cincinnati's pitching staff that ranks 22nd in baseball in ERA (4.06) and Atlanta’s offense ranks 26th in batting average (.238).

PRIME TIME REWIND

Both teams have already appeared on Sunday Night Baseball this season – and it was against each other back on May 29 at Turner Field. Not much can be taken away from the first game, a 2-1 Atlanta win because the game was dominated by Jair Jurrjens and Johnny Cueto.

Jay Bruce put the Reds on top with a solo home run in the second inning but Atlanta would go ahead in the sixth inning on a Martin Prado two-run blast.

CHASING DIFFERENT GOALS

The Atlanta Braves have established themselves as clear favorites in the NL wild card race. They likely won’t catch the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East but it doesn’t seem like any club is going to sneak up and steal the wild card from the Braves.

Right now the Reds are not concerned with the wild card race because they play in the NL Comedy Central. While the Reds are 10.5 games in the wild card, they are right in the thick of things in their division that features the Pirates, Brewers and Cardinals all contending.

FROM UGLY TO UGGLA

Dan Uggla is back in the starting lineup after being knocked out of Wednesday's game against the Rockies with a pulled hamstring. Uggla was hitting below the Mendoza line and looking like a big time disaster for the Braves, who traded for him in the offseason.

But Uggla got hot in July. He was riding the hero Friday night with his pinch-hit two-run home run that broke a 4-4 tie and gave the Braves a 6-4 win in Game 1 of this series. During a 13-game tear Uggla has six home runs, 11 RBIs and four doubles while batting .375. He leads the Braves in home runs with 18 despite owning the club’s lowest batting average (.195).

NOTEWORTHY NUMBERS

Braves are 4-1 in Beachy’s last five starts with four days’ rest.

Braves are 39-18 in their last 57 vs. the NL Central.

Reds are 10-1 in the last 11 Game 3’s of series.

Braves are 5-11 in their last 16 meetings in Cincinnati.

Braves rank 26th in MLB in batting average (.239) but they are sixth in home runs (112).

Atlanta has the second best bullpen in baseball (2.91 ERA), Cincinnati’s is ranked eighth (3.30 ERA).

[timbob]

Sunday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Madison Bumgarner (5-9, 3.72 ERA), San Francisco Giants

Do you like to back pitchers who throw strikes? Well, Madison is your man. The big righty is tossing one ball for every two strikes, and he has 37 K’s compared to just three walks in his last four starts.

The Giants are 5-0 in his last five trips to the hill,, and there’s still good value backing him. The youngster was a stud in the World Series last year but he got off to a rocky start to this season.

Ubaldo Jimenez (6-8, 4.00 ERA), Colorado Rockies

Someone explain to me again why the Rockies want to trade this guy? Jimenez is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and Colorado has him under contract – at a very reasonable rate – until 2014 and yet there are rumors floating that the club is shopping him?

I don’t get it.

All you need to get is that Ubaldo is good and in form. The Rockies are 5-2 in his last seven starts and he owns a 2.77 ERA and 30 strikeouts over his last four outings.


SLUMPING

Michael Pineda (8-6, 3.24 ERA), Seattle Mariners

For as good and talented as Pineda is, bettors had to have seen this coming. The big righty is hitting that rookie wall like some many first year pitchers have before him.

He gave up five earned runs on seven hits, two walks and a homer in 6 1/3 innings work against the Blue Jays on Tuesday, and seven runs on six hits, two walks and two home runs in five innings against the Angels in his start before that.

The Mariners are now just 1-4 in his last five starts and 2-7 in his last nine trips to the mound.

Kyle Lohse (8-7, 3.45 ERA), St. Louis Cardinals

It’s been over a month since Kyle Lohse last gave manager Tony LaRussa a quality start. The veteran righty carries a bloated 7.64 ERA this month into Sunday’s start against Pirates.

Lohse has been complaining about pain in his right middle finger but was given the green light to start on Sunday after having it examined by the training staff.

"Coming off that last start I had a little swelling and a little soreness on some of the pitches I was throwing," Lohse told Pat Parris on the FOX Sports Midwest pregame show. "I just wanted to make sure that I wasn't going to end up with an injury like Wainwright had where you tear a tendon in there.

"Certain pitches I throw put a little more pressure on the outside of that joint and we all thought it would be good to get it checked out and I had the MRI and everything and it just showed inflammation and maybe a little slight strain but nothing tearing so that was what I liked to hear and I know I can go forward and not blow it out."

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HOT LINES

Sunday's Best MLB Bets

Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs (-165)

Fading the Cubs is a long-term money maker, but fading the Astros has been more profitable this year.
The two most costly teams in baseball square off in the series finale today at Wrigley Field. Improving Matt Garza takes the bump for the Cubs, who have taken the first two games of the series.

Garza has pitched well his last two outings, allowing just one run in his last 14 innings.

Winless rookie Jordan Lyles goes for Houston. He’s given up nine runs in his last two outings.

We’re going to wait until Sunday’s lineups are released to make sure red-hot Cub Aramis Ramirez is in the game. If he’s there, this will be a big play for us.

PICK: Cubs


Atlanta Braves (-116, 9) at Cincinnati Reds

About this time last season, the Braves were on their way to building a seven-game lead in the N.L. East. They went into fade mode every since.
Could it be happening again? Brandon Beachy will try to straighten out the Braves, who have dropped three of five, including Saturday’s 11-2 rout to the Reds.

Beachy got hammered in Colorado in his last outing, surrendering six runs on nine hits in just 4 2/3 innings. He’ll face Dontrelle Willis, who is trying to resurrect his career in Cincinnati. He’s been solid but far from dominant in his two appearances. He gave up two runs in 4 /23 innings in his last outing, way back on July 18.

While the Braves faded last season, the Reds surged in August and September to win the NL Central. Cinncy’s a better team than its sub-.500 record.

We like the home dog here at night in front of a national TV audience and plan on backing the Reds frequently down the stretch.

PICK: Reds

[timbob]

CANADIAN BACON

Sunday's Best CFL Bets

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Montreal Alouettes (-11.5, 56)

The Roughriders are not the team that fought valiantly against the Alouettes in the last two Grey Cups. Meanwhile, the Alouettes have a receiving corps that is probably the best in the CFL and we won’t even mention the fact they will be playing on their home turf.

The Alouettes have scored 30 points or more in each of their first three games. The Roughriders looked foolish against the Tiger-Cats last week but will be coming to Montreal with lots of motivation. It won’t be a blowout but the Alouettes should still cover the number.

PICK: Montreal

[timbob]

Sunday's Betting Tips: Pair Of Homer Umps Behind The Plate

Weather Watch

A 13 mph wind is forecast to be blowing in from right field at Landshark Stadium, where the Marlins host the Mets.

Who’s Hot

AL: Rangers starter Alexi Ogando 7-1 at Rangers Ballpark, with a 2.54 ERA. He hasn’t lost in July.

NL: Cardinals are 20-9 in their last 29 Sunday games.

CFL: Saskatchewan Roughriders have covered the spread in five of their last six games against the Montreal Alouettes.

Who’s Not

AL: The Indians have lost 7 of 8 to the White Sox at home.

NL: The Nationals are 3-12 in their last 15 games with umpire Tim Welke behind home plate and 8-20 in their last 28 games in Los Angeles vs. the Dodgers.

CFL: Alouettes are 3-9 ATS following a straight-up win.

Game Of The Day

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-122, 8.5)

Injury To Note

Reds 3B Scott Rolen was placed on the DL Friday with inflammation in his left shoulder. Rolen told reporters that he won’t swing the bat for some time, bad news for a Reds’ team trying to get back in the NL Central race that is wide open.

Key Stat

Cubs are 3-13 in their last 16 Sunday games.

Betting Tips

Two homer umps are expected behind the plate today. Home teams are 23-11 in Mike Estabrook’s last 34 games behind home plate. He’s expected to call White Sox-Cleveland. Dale Scott is expected behind the plate today at Wrigley Field. Home teams are 10-1 in Scott’s last 11 Sunday games behind home plate.

College football win totals are expected to be popping up this week. One to keep an eye on is San Diego State, which lost two receivers to an already depleted receiving corps. No. 1 WR Dominique Sandifer and redshirt freshman WR Jay Waddell will both miss the season with knee injuries.

John Daly (-2), a 300/1 longshot, is just three shots behind leader Bo Van Pelt (-5) heading into Sunday’s final round at the RBC Canadian Open.

[timbob]

Today's CFL Picks
Saskatchewan at Montreal

The Alouettes look to take advantage of a Saskatchewan team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 July games. Montreal is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 21. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-11 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SUNDAY, JULY 24
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (7/19)

Game 497-498: Saskatchewan at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 101.486; Montreal 122.316
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 21; 52
Vegas Line: Montreal by 11 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-11 1/2); Under

[timbob]

Today's MLB Picks
NY Mets at Florida

The Marlins look to follow up their 8-5 win yesterday and build on their 8-1 record in their last 9 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Florida is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Florida (-125). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JULY 24
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Atlanta at Cincinnati (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Beachy) 15.696; Cincinnati (Willis) 14.511
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Over

Game 903-904: NY Mets at Florida (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 14.421; Florida (Sanchez) 15.085
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-125); Under

Game 905-906: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.041; Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.306
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+100); Over

Game 907-908: Houston at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Lyles) 14.772; Cubs (Garza) 13.927
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-170); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+150); N/A

Game 909-910: Milwaukee at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.781; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.299
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+100); Under

Game 911-912: Colorado at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 14.503; Arizona (Owings) 14.992
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Over

Game 913-914: Washington at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Marquis) 15.084; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.317
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+115); Over

Game 915-916: San Diego at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stauffer) 15.950; Philadelphia (Halladay) 16.689
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-230); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-230); Under

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Jackson) 15.289; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.264
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+105); Under

Game 919-920: Oakland at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.516; NY Yankees (Colon) 16.762
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-160); Over

Game 921-922: LA Angels at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Chatwood) 15.400; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.049
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+105); Under

Game 923-924: Seattle at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Pineda) 13.744; Boston (Wakefield) 16.384
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Over

Game 925-926: Tampa Bay at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 15.496; Kansas City (Paulino) 15.925
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Under

Game 927-928: Detroit at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.211; Minnesota (Liriano) 14.483
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110); Over

Game 929-930: Toronto at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.532; Texas (Ogando) 16.656
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-200); Over

[timbob]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Astros Saturday.

Sunday it's the Pirates. The deficit is 2,493 sirignanos.

[timbob]

Arthur Ralph Sports

685- 511 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one 12-2 run Sun SL Cards -120

[timbob]

Hondo

Hondo, having hit with the Phils, was well on his way to a sweep last night, but the Jays coughed it up in the ninth, so the deficit held steady at 1,785 sains.

Today, he expects Morton, that old salt, to cuff the Cards -- 20 units. Tonight, Obama may have pulled the plug on the "don't ask, don't tell" ban last week, but that won't stop Mr. Aitch from re-implementing his "don't ask Dontrelle" policy -- 20 units on the Braves to bring down the Reds.

[timbob]

Chuck Obrien
50 DIME
WINNER #3 IN A ROW

Padres-Phillies TOTAL

UNDER

- PLUS -

20 DIME Winner #3 in a Row

Brewers ML

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Cappers Access

Astros
Rangers(RL)

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Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Yankees -160 over Athletics

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Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Yankees -160 over Athletics