7-27-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Preview

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (-215, 7.5)

NOTE: Tim Lincecum was scratched from his Tuesday start for the Giants with Barry Zito moving up a day for that game. San Francisco's starter for Wednesday is still undecided.

The San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies play the middle game of their 3-game series on ESPN Wednesday Night Baseball in what could be another NLCS preview.

Citizens Bank Park is the location and start time is 4:00 p.m. (PT). This will be a battle of lefties with Barry Zito versus Cole Hamels.

The Giants upset the Phils last year in the NLCS on the way to winning the World Series. The first meeting between the teams this year was Tuesday night (result pending). Giants’ ace Tim Lincecum was a rare +100 underdog against Vance Worley.

The Phillies (64-37) have all but wrapped up a playoff spot with the NL’s best record. They started this homestand with three wins over San Diego before losing (5-4) on Monday. They have MLB’s best home record (37-16) for +11.9 units, and haven’t lost a home series since early May.

Hamels (12-5, 2.62 ERA) had his worst start since early April right after the All-Star break, allowing seven earned runs over 4 1/3 innings at the Mets (11-2 loss). He rebounded last Friday at home versus San Diego, one run and three hits over eight innings in a 3-1 win.

The 27-year-old was named an All-Star and is tied with teammate Roy Halladay and Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens for the NL win lead. His OPS allowed (.565) is second in the league behind the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw (.560).

Hamels has a 2.29 ERA at home, with Philadelphia going 8-4. He faced the Giants in Game 3 of the NLCS last year, surrendering three runs (two earned) over six innings and getting out-dueled by Matt Cain (3-0 road loss).

Hamels’ lifetime regular season record against San Fran is 4-2 with a 4.67 ERA in eight starts. The Giants are 17-6 in their last 23 road games against a left-handed starter.

San Francisco (59-43) is also in good shape for a playoff berth with a four-game lead over Arizona in the NL West. The Giants got a day off on Monday after starting 7-3 since the break.

Zito (3-2, 4.78 ERA) had three starts in April (6.23 ERA) before going on the DL with a foot injury. He returned in late June and surprised everyone by winning three straight games (1.29 ERA). Giants’ fans finally thought Zito may start earning his big paycheck.

The 33-year-old came crashing back to Earth on July 16 at San Diego. He surrendered eight earned runs over 3 2/3 innings in an 11-3 loss. The outing was so bad that he had his start skipped and will be working on 10 days rest.

Zito has only three lifetime starts in Philadelphia, having spent the first seven years of his career in the AL. He surrendered four earned runs over five innings in a 9-3 loss at Citizens Bank last year.

Philadelphia is 10-2 in its last 12 home games versus a left-handed starter.

The Giants are just 27-25 on the road this year (+1.9 units), compared to 32-18 at home (+8.9 units). However, they’re 5-2 in their last seven away.

The ‘over’ is 6-0 in San Francisco’s last six road games. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in Philly’s last five home games.

San Fran took two of three in Philly in the playoffs last year, but is 5-17 in the last 22 in the regular season there.

Philadelphia has Placido Polanco (back) on the disabled list. The Giants have Miguel Tejada (abdominal) and Pat Burrell (foot) on the DL, with Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez already out for the year.

Weather should be clear and warm in the 80s. The pitching matchup for Thursday’s finale is Cain against Kyle Kendrick.

[Mr. IWS]

Wednesday's Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Colby Lewis, Texas Rangers (10-7, 3.93 ERA)

Lewis threw six no-hit innings against the Toronto Blue Jays the last time he took the ball and ended up with a 12-2 win under his belt. Texas has now won each of his last five starts and Lewis has allowed only a single earned run over his last 15 1/3 innings on the hill.

There is some concern about the number of dingers Lewis is giving up though. Lewis has served up 24 homers, three more than he allowed all of last season.

Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks (11-3, 3.22 ERA)

Kennedy is coming off a seven-inning shutout of the Milwaukee Brewers and has now strung together three straight wins after a terrible start in Oakland earlier this month.

That latest win moved Kennedy into a tie for second in the NL with 11 wins and to 10th in MLB money standings at just under seven units of profit for his supporters.


SLUMPING

Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds (7-8, 5.56 ERA)

Just like clockwork, Bronson Arroyo shows up in the Slumping section every five days. That’s what happens when you have allowed 29 homers already this season – the same number of jacks he gave up all of last season.

After giving up three homers in a 6-4 loss to Atlanta, Arroyo told reporters “that was some of the worst execution of my entire career.”

Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays (7-9, 3.27 ERA)

Romero hasn’t won in almost a full month and is working on a fat 7.02 ERA over his last three starts.

The good news is that he’s still sitting down a ton of batters and struck out nine in his latest loss to Seattle. If he can cut down on his walks (14 in his last four starts) he might be able to get back on track.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Wednesday's Best MLB Bets

Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics (+110, 6.5)

On the bright side, it can only get better for Trevor Cahill after his last trip to the mound.

Cahill suffered through a career-worst performance, allowing 10 earned runs on nine hits in just two innings of work.

"It's kind of embarrassing," Cahill told reporters after the 17-7 loss to the Yankees. "You feel like you let your team down when you can't go past two innings, especially when they show early that they're going put some runs on the board for you."

It was obviously a terrible night for the big right-hander, who had lasted at least seven innings in four of his last six outings, but the A’s have won just two of his last 14 starts.

Meanwhile, the Rays have won seven of James Shields’ last 10 starts on the road and need a big win in this one.

PICK: Tampa Bay


Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves (-200, 7)

The Braves have won each of Jair Jurrjens’ last six trips to the hill, but he has had some problems lately. He gave up three homers in a 6-4 win over Cincinnati last week after allowing six earned runs over five innings in a victory over Washington.

This latest skid comes after he put together a great stretch that saw him allow only three runs over four starts and that’s not to mention the looming trade deadline. There are a few whispers floating around that the Braves may look to move him in exchange for a big bat, but that seems a bit rash.

While we’re expecting Jurrjens to bounce back in a big way, there’s no way we’re laying down -200 against this plucky Bucs squad. We’ll take a shot at the under.

PICK: Under

[Mr. IWS]

Wednesday’s Betting Tips: Flu Hits SF’s Rotation

Who’s Hot

MLB: The Los Angeles Angels are 19-9 in the last 28 games.

MLB: Texas had won 10 of its last 11 home games heading into Tuesday’s action.

Who’s Not

MLB: The under is 3-14 in the last 17 meetings between the Rockies and Dodgers.

MLB: Houston is 1-7 in its last eight matchups with St. Louis.

Key Stat

9.78 – Jair Jurrjens sits second to Roy Halladay in MLB money standings, earning 9.78 units for his supporters while guiding the Atlanta Braves to 14 wins in 18 starts. The Braves are set as -200 favorites in Wednesday’s game against Pittsburgh with Jurrjens coming off a pair of tough starts.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays – Bautista left Tuesday night’s game in the third inning after being beaned and didn’t return. He was able to walk off the field after getting hit, but his status probably won’t be known until he undergoes concussion tests. Bautista is hitting .330 with 31 home runs and 70 RBIs.

Game Of The Day

Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Indians (-105, 8)

Notable Quotable

“I honesty like Carson Palmer. He was a splendid player for us. He is a good person. I wish him well and he has retired. That is his choice. I’m not expecting him to be back. Carson signed a contract, he made a commitment. He gave us his word. We relied on his word and his commitment. We expected him to perform here. If he is going to walk away from his commitment we aren’t going to reward him for doing it.” – Cincinnati Bengals GM Mike Brown on the status of now former starting quarterback Carson Palmer.

Tips And Notes

As The MGM Mirage was the first Vegas or online sportsbook to release NFL season win totals and they’re already seeing some serious action. Jay Rood, MGM Mirage’s Director of Race and Sports, told Covers.com on Tuesday evening that his shop is taking money on Cincinnati under 7 (-135), Washington under 6.5 (-135), Chicago under 9.5 (-145) and Seattle under (-160).

Tim Lincecum was scratched from his scheduled start Tuesday due to a stomach virus, leaving San Francisco’s rotation up in the air for Wednesday’s game and the remainder of the week. Barry Zito moved up a day to take the ball Tuesday and while the Giants hope Lincecum will be able to go Wednesday, that has yet to be confirmed.

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

Seattle at NY Yankees

The Yankees look to build on their 10-3 record in Phil Hughes' last 13 starts against a team with a losing record. New York is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-155). Here are all of today's picks.
WEDNESDAY, JULY 27
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST Game 951-952: Florida at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Vazquez) 14.629; Washington (Hernandez) 15.204
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-115); Over Game 953-954: San Francisco at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.961; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.870
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 5 12
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.783; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.564
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-180); Under Game 957-958: NY Mets at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.093; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.823
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Game 959-960: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 15.748; Milwaukee (Greinke) 14.889
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); Over Game 961-962: Houston at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 13.499; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.922
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Under Game 963-964: Arizona at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 14.278; San Diego (Luebke) 15.320
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-125); Under Game 965-966: Colorado at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 13.827; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.911
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+140); Over Game 967-968: LA Angels at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.480; Cleveland (Huff) 14.582
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-115); Under Game 969-970: Seattle at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 13.496; NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.950
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 3 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-155); Over Game 971-972: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.358; White Sox (Danks) 15.548
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Under Game 973-974: Baltimore at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Simon) 14.489; Toronto (Romero) 15.374
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-180); Over Game 975-976: Kansas City at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 16.154; Boston (Lackey) 15.452
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-200); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+170); Over Game 977-978: Minnesota at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Duensing) 14.470; Texas (Lewis) 15.730
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-200); Over Game 979-980: Tampa Bay at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.399; Oakland (Cahill) 15.376
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

685- 514 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one 12-5 run WED Over 9 Twins over the total Twins/Rangers

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Nationals Tuesday night.

Wednesday it's the Angels. The deficit is 2,584 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Suddenly sizzling Hondo, who swept Monday, brought out his broom again last night as he cleaned up with the Angels and Twins to do another big number on the dirty digits, which are down to 1,275 powells. And once again, he is would like to offer heartfelt apologies to the Reverse Hondo Brigade.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch says Simon has a chance against the Jays -- 20 units on the Orioles. Also, he expects the one and only Jimmy Shields to turn in a finely tuned and noteworthy performance -- 20 units on the Rays over the A's.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play WEDNESDAY

Angels -120

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Padres + Dbacks OVER 6

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Padres + Dbacks OVER 6

[Mr. IWS]

Bang Your Bookie:

5 Unit Arizona D-Backs +110

[Mr. IWS]

MLB Write Up

Hot pitchers
-- Vazquez is 3-2, 3.19 in his last six starts.
-- Hamels is 7-2, 1.69 in his last eleven home starts.
-- Braves won last six Jurrjens starts (4-0, 3.13), but he is 0-0, 8.18 in his last two outings.
-- Cardinals won last six Carpenter starts (5-0, 2.51).
-- Kennedy is 3-0, 2.25 in his last three starts. Luebke has a 2.17 RA in five starts this season.

-- Santana is 2-0, 2.45 in his last five starts. Huff threw seven shutout innings in his first '11 start.
-- Danks is 3-0, 1.47 in his last five starts. Scherzer is 2-1, 1.66 in his last three starts.
-- Simon is 1-1, 2.63 in his last couple starts.
-- Lackey is 3-0, 2.33 in his last three starts. Chen is 1-1, 2.84 in his last three outings.
-- Lewis is 4-0, 2.36 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- LHernandez is 0-1, 8.04 in his last three starts.
-- Cain is 1-2, 4.32 in his last four starts.
-- Maholm is 0-2, 7.36 in his last four road starts.
-- Arroyo is 1-2, 7.63 in his last five starts. Pelfrey is 0-2, 5.29 in his last three starts.
-- Zambrano is 2-3, 6.52 in his last seven starts. Greinke is 0-2, 7.00 in his last five starts.
-- Norris is 1-2, 5.10 in his last five starts.
-- Kuroda is 0-3, 4.91 in his last three starts. Cook is 1-5, 6.04 in eight starts this season.

-- FHernandez is 0-3, 4.42 in his last five starts. Hughes is 1-2, 9.47 in six starts this season.
-- Romero is 0-2, 7.04 in his last four starts.
-- Duensing is 1-1, 6.00 in his last three starts.
-- Cahill is 0-4, 6.99 in his last five starts. Shields is 1-4, 3.89 in his last five outings.

Totals
-- Eight of last ten Florida road games went over the total.
-- Giants' last seven road games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-4 in Atlanta's last eleven home games.
-- Over is 8-3-1 in Mets' last twelve games.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Cubs' last eight road games.
-- Over is 4-2-1 in Cardinals' last seven games.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five games at Petco Park.
-- 10 of last 14 Dodger home games stayed under the total. Six of last nine Colorado games went over the total.

-- Last five Cleveland home games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in Seattle's last eleven road games.
-- Eight of last ten Oriole road games went over the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Kansas City games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 12-5 in last seventeen Texas home games.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in White Sox' last nine games.
-- Seven of last eight Oakland games went over the total.

Hot Teams
-- Marlins won seven of their last eight road games.
-- Phillies won 17 of their last 21 home games. Giants are 9-4 in their last 13 games overall.
-- Pirates won four of their last six road games.
-- Brewers won five of their last six home games. Cubs won three of last four games.
-- Cardinals won five of their last six games.
-- Arizona won four of its last five games.
-- Dodgers won seven of their last eight home games.

-- Bronx won 17 of its last 21 home games.
-- Toronto won six of its last nine home games.
-- Red Sox won eight of their last ten games. Royals won five of last seven games.
-- White Sox won three of their last four games. Tigers won six of nine.
-- Texas won ten of its last twelve home games.
-- Angels won five of their last seven games.
-- Oakland won six of its last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost five of their last six games.
-- Atlanta lost three of its last four games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last ten road games.
-- Astros lost 14 of their last 16 road games.
-- Cincinnati is 8-12 in its last 20 games.
-- San Diego lost 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Colorado is 3-11 in its last fourteen road games.

-- Seattle lost its last 17 games; they've been outscored 77-35 in their 12 games since the All-Star break.
-- Cleveland lost six of its last seven home games.
-- Baltimore lost seven of its last eight road games.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last six games.
-- Tampa Bay is 8-14 in its last twenty-two games.

Umpires
-- Fla-Wsh-- Six of last nine Hernandez games stayed under total.
-- SF-Phil-- Four of last five Carlson games went over the total.
-- Pitt-Atl-- Five of last seven Bucknor games went over total.
-- NY-Cin-- Uncer is 6-2-1 in last nine Bell games.
-- Chi-Mil-- Road team won seven of last ten Foster games.
-- Hst-StL-- Underdogs are 5-4 in last nine Fletcher games.
-- Az-SD-- Four of last five Demuth games went over the total.
-- Colo-LA-- Home team is 12-3 in last 15 Randazzo games; over is 9-5 in his last 14 games behind the plate.

-- LA-Clev-- Favorites won eight of last nine TBarrett games.
-- Sea-NY-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Wendelstedt games.
-- KC-Bos-- Home side won nine of last eleven Barksdale games.
-- Blt-Tor-- Over is 6-1-2 in last nine Dreckman games.
-- Min-Tex-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Guccione games.
-- Det-Chi-- Six of last seven Cousins games stayed under the total.
-- TB-A's-- Five of last six Holbrook games stayed under total.

[Mr. IWS]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Chicago White Sox ML
Florida Marlins ML
Tampa Bay Rays RL