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It's sweep or get swept for Hondo this week and last night it was the latter as he went double-draino with the Orioles and Rays to increase the deficit to 1,495 clende nons.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch will try to generate some dough with Baker -- 10 units on the Twinks to rise above the Rangers. Also, he throw some DDPs (disposable dead presidents) at the Bucs -- 10 units on Correia.
The Fever look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 Thursday games. Indiana is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+6). Here are all of today's picks. THURSDAY, JULY 28
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. ESTGame 651-652: Phoenix at San Antonio (12:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 114.776; San Antonio 112.450
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 2 1/2; 173 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 181 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3); Under Game 653-654: Los Angeles at Atlanta (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 105.725; Atlanta 113.967
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 8; 165
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 162 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2); Over Game 655-656: Washington at New York (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 105.156; New York 116.629
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 11 1/2; 145
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 8 1/2; 149
Dunkel Pick: New York (-8 1/2); Under Game 657-658: Indiana at Connecticut (7:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 112.633; Connecticut 116.654
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 4; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 6; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+6); Over Game 659-660: Chicago at Tulsa (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 108.782; Tulsa 100.036
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 8 1/2; 141
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 7 1/2; 148
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-7 1/2); Under
Hot pitchers
-- Bailey is 2-0, 2.03 in his last couple starts.
-- Lannan is 2-0, 2.40 in his last couple starts. Hensley is 1-0, 1.80 in his last two starts this year.
-- Marcum is 2-0, 3.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Lincecum is 3-2, 1.66 in his last six starts, but he's been hampered by the flu all week and has been scratched the last two games. Kendrick has a 2.30 RA in his last three home starts.
-- JGarcia is 3-1, 2.05 in his last four starts.
-- Beckett is 3-0, 1.61 in his last four starts.
-- Oakland is 2-0 at home when Harden (1-0, 3.46) starts.
-- Harrison is 3-0, 2.25 in his last four starts. Baker is 3-0, 0.51 in his last three starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Capuano is 0-3, 4.58 in his last three starts.
-- Wells is 1-3, 6.88 in his last ten starts.
-- DHudson is 1-1, 5.55 in his last four starts. San Diego lost last four Latos starts (0-2, 3.42).
-- Lowe is 1-2, 6.23 in his last three starts. Correia is 0-2, 9.42 in his last three outings.
-- Rodriguez is 0-3, 6.00 in his last four starts.
-- Penny is 1-1, 4.42 in his last six home starts. Pineiro is 1-2, 9.95 in his last three starts.
-- Hochevar has a 6.55 RA in his last six starts, but Royals scored 47 runs in winning his last five outings.
-- WDavis is 0-2, 6.23 in his last three starts.
-- Villanueva is 0-1, 6.46 in his four home starts. Bergesen is 1-2, 8.55 in his last four starts.
Totals
-- Nine of last eleven Florida road games went over the total.
-- Seven of Giants' last eight road games went over the total.
-- Lowe's last eight starts all went over the total.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in Mets' last thirteen games.
-- Over is 6-2-2 in Wells' last ten starts.
-- Under is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Rodriguez starts.
-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six games at Petco Park.
-- Over is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Pineiro starts.
-- Eight of last eleven Oriole road games went over the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Kansas City games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 12-6 in last eighteen Texas home games.
-- Eight of last nine Oakland games went over the total.
Hot Teams
-- Marlins won eight of their last nine road games.
-- Phillies won 17 of their last 22 home games. Giants are 10-4 in their last 14 games overall.
-- Mets won their last three games, scoring 20 runs.
-- Brewers won six of their last seven home games.
-- Cardinals won five of their last seven games.
-- Arizona won five of its last six games.
-- Detroit is 6-1 in the game following its last seven losses.
-- Toronto won seven of its last ten home games.
-- Red Sox won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Texas won ten of its last thirteen home games. Minnesota won five of its last seven on the road.
-- Angels won six of their last eight games.
-- Oakland is 8-4 since the All-Star break.
Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost six of their last seven games.
-- Atlanta is 2-3 in its last five games. Pittsburgh is 2-5 in its last seven games, losing last two games in extra innings.
-- Cubs lost nine of their last eleven road games.
-- Astros lost 14 of their last 17 road games.
-- Cincinnati is 8-13 in its last 21 games.
-- San Diego lost 13 of its last 18 games.
-- Baltimore lost eight of its last nine road games.
-- Royals lost three of their last four games.
-- Tampa Bay is 8-15 in its last 23 games.
Umpires
-- Fla-Wsh-- Under is 9-0-1 in last ten Gibson games.
-- SF-Phil-- Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Estabrook games.
-- Pitt-Atl-- Five of last seven Iassogna games stayed under total.
-- NY-Cin-- Seven of last nine Hirschbeck games went over total.
-- Chi-Mil-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight BWelke games.
-- Hst-StL-- Underdogs are 7-6 in last thirteen Reynolds games.
-- Az-SD-- Road team won last five Danley games; Danley played ball at San Diego State with Tony Gwynn.
-- KC-Bos-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Cederstrom games.
-- Blt-Tor-- Under is 12-4 when Porter is behind the plate.
-- Min-Tex-- Home team won five of last six Muchinski games.
-- TB-A's-- Last five Schrieber games stayed under the total.
Play Boston (-270) over Kansas City (Top Play of the Day) Starts at 1:30 PM EST
Bostonhas won 9 of the last 11 games and they have also won 23 of the last 31 day games. Josh Beckett has won 14 of the last 15 games as a favorite of -200 higher and he is 6-0 vs. Kansas City over his career with an ERA of 2.26.
Play St. Louis (-185) over Houston (Top Play of the Day) Starts at 8:10 PM EST
St. Louishas won 5 of the last 7 games and they have also won 8 of the last 11 games vs. Houston. Jaime Garcia has won 9 consecutive games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he is 6-1 at home this season with an ERA of 1.14.
After losing the first 3 games of this series, I'm confident the Reds will bounce back strong today. They have a big edge on the mound with Bailey, who is 4-1 with an ERA of 2.51 in 5 home starts this season. The Reds are 17-4 in his last 21 home starts, 18-4 in his last 22 starts as a favorite and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. New York scheduled starter Capuano checks in at 0-3 with an ERA of 4.58 over his last 3 starts. The Reds, who are batting .284 and scoring 5.5 runs per game off lefty starters, will gladly welcome the southpaw to the mound. The Reds are an impressive 30-12 in their last 42 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Pound the Reds.
TORONTO –1½ +127 over Baltimore Pinnacle
Blue Jay fans should be thankful that Tony LaRussa thinks he’s smarter than everyone else on the planet. The Jays stole Colby Rasmus, a five-tool talent that was in that genius’s doghouse all year and as a result, he didn’t play as much as he should’ve been (you don’t show up a genius, EVER!). Rasmus is a top-tier talent that will immediately be inserted into the line-up everyday, including his Blue Jay debut for this one. In the end, the Jays dealt Jason Frasor, Marc Rzepczynski, Zach Stewart and Octavio Dotel for Colby Rasmus (and Mark Teahen’s $7 million contract). That’s two veteran relievers on one-year deals, a young lefty with #5 starter potential, a few million in cash and one not so good prospect. That’s it, for a potential superstar center fielder. What makes this even crazier is that Alex Anthopolous seems to be forming a habit of making great deals like this one. The Jays have not unloaded on the Orioles the past two nights but their chances of doing so are good here because their due bucket to score a whole bunch of runs is overflowing and they couldn’t have handpicked a better starter to unleash against. Brad Bergeson won his last start but hasn’t won back-to-back games in close to a full year. Prior to that start against the light-hitting Angels, Bergeson’s ERA since May 14 was 7.71. Bergeson has poor skills right across the board that includes a horrible strikeout rate, a fly-ball bias profile and the inability to win games (the O’s are 2-9 in his 11 starts). He’s been shuffled between the pen and rotation and if the O’s had some healthy bodies he would be in back where he belongs – in the minors. Carlos Villanueva has a 3.40 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 90 innings pitched. Over his last six starts, Villanueva has faced the Rangers in Texas, the Yanks, Cleveland, Philly, the Cards and the Reds in Cincinnati. Only once (against the Yanks) did he allow more than three earned runs and now he takes a step down in class against a beatable Orioles club that can’t go more than a few games without betting blown out. Play: Toronto –1½ +127 (Risking 2 units).
OAKLAND –1 +119/or (-121) over Tampa Bay Pinnacle
If you don’t have the option of laying one run and taking back 19 cents than the recommendation is to lay the 21 cents because the A’s are undervalued here against a guest that is just going through the motions right now. We’re witnessing the total collapse of the Rays at the moment and it’s not over. It’s like every player on that team is more interested in the trade front than they are in what’s happening on the diamond. B.J. Upton has his backs packed already. In any event the A’s are scorching hot and against Hellickson, Price and Shields in the first three games of this series they outscored TB by a combined 26-10. The A’s have been red-hot at the plate since the all-star break and take a big step down in class when facing Wade Davis. Davis has a poor strikeout rate (50 in 109 IP), a poor GB/LD/FB profile of 33%/20%/47% and he’s getting progressively worse as the year wears on. Over the past 31 days, Davis has a WHIP of 1.73 to go along with a 5.39 ERA. Rich Harden will make just his fifth start of the year. The A’s have won three of his four starts with his only loss coming in Texas. In the other three starts, Harden allowed three runs or less and that includes his last start in the Bronx. He has 23 k’s in 23 IP and a BAA of .239. Play: Oakland –1 +119 (Risking 2 units).
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