7-30-11

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Gamblers Data

Free Play SATURDAY

Angels -140

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Cappers Access

Cardinals(RL)
Twins

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CHRIS JORDAN

400♦ MLB Winner #3 in a Row
N.L. CHEAP CHALK This game is a gift!!!

NY METS -110 ML

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Cleveland Insider

PGA- Greenbrier 3rd Round Matchups (3-2 yest)

C. Couch -115 over J. Merrick
T. Gainey -115 over K. Stanley
K. Bradley -115 over T. Matteson
W. Simpson -135 over B. De Jonge
G. Woodland (+0.5) -140 over C. Howell III

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Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Athletics -140 over Twins

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Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Athletics -140 over Twins

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JIMMY BOYD

5* BEST BET Red Sox ML
4* RUN LINE ROUT Brewers -1.5 RL -115

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MLB
Write-Up


Saturday, July 30

Hot pitchers
-- Lopez is 2-0, 1.83 in his last three starts.
-- Pirates won last four McDonald starts (2-0, 1.90).
-- Mets won Dickey's last three road starts (2-0, 3.05).
-- Hudson is 4-1, 2.23 in his last seven starts.
-- Gallardo is 2-0, 1.29 in his last couple home starts.
-- Giants won last six Bumgarner starts (3-0, 2.57). Leake is 2.19 but winless in his last couple starts.
-- Harang is 4-0, 2.33 in his last nine starts.
-- Billingsley is 4-2, 2.27 in his last six starts. Arizona is 3-0 when Owings (2-0, 2.94) starts.

-- Holland is 3-0, 2.45 in his last four starts.
-- Bronx won last five Nova starts (4-0, 3.41) but last one was July 1st. Tillman is 1-0, 1.77 in his last four starts, but his last start was back on May 27.
-- Cobb is 3-0, 1.72 in his last five starts.
-- Masterson is 3-1, 2.21 in his last five starts.
-- Lester is 1-0, 0.55 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Lohse is 0-3, 6.51 in his last five starts.
-- Lee is 0-2, 5.33 in his last four starts.
-- Marquis is 1-3, 6.15 in his last five starts.
-- Sanchez is 0-2, 6.67 in his last five starts.
-- Happ is 1-4, 9.79 in his last six starts.
-- Jimenez is 1-2, 4.42 in his last three starts.

-- Mills is 9-7, 3.99 in 20 AAA starts this year; he made five major league starts in 2009-10, going 1-1, 7.80. This is his first '11 start.
-- Britton is 0-3, 9.67 in his last five starts, last of which was July 8. Colon is 1-3, 8.24 in his last four starts.
-- Haren is 0-1, 5.89 in his last three starts. Below is 0-1, 6.52 in two starts this season.
-- Paulino is 1-4, 5.35 in his last five starts.
-- Humber is 1-3, 4.70 in his last four starts.
-- Pineda is 0-2, 10.91 in his last three starts.
-- Moscoso is 1-2, 5.96 in his last four starts. Blackburn is 1-2, 9.93 in his last six starts.

Totals
-- Over is 10-3-1 in Mets' last fourteen games.
-- Five of last seven Lee starts stayed under the total.
-- Seven of Giants' last nine road games went over the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Florida road games went over the total.
-- Seven of Happ's last eight starts went over the total.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Cardinal games.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven games at Petco Park.
-- Last four Billingsley starts stayed under the total.

-- Over is 4-1-1 in Haren's last six road starts.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Toronto home games.
-- 10 of last 13 Kansas City games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Oriole road games went over the total.
-- Last five Lester starts stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last ten Oakland games went over the total.
-- Last five Tampa Bay games went over the total.

Hot Teams
-- Marlins won eight of their last ten road games.
-- Phillies won 18 of their last 23 home games.
-- Giants are 10-5 in their last 15 games.
-- Mets won their last four games, scoring 28 runs.
-- Brewers won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Cardinals won six of their last eight games.
-- Dodgers won five of their last six games. Arizona won five of its last seven games.

-- Toronto won nine of its last twelve home games.
-- Red Sox won nine of their last thirteen games. White Sox won four of their last five games, and have won seven in a row vs Boston.
-- Royals won seven of their last ten games.
-- Bronx is 8-5 in its last thirteen games.
-- Angels won seven of their last ten games.
-- Minnesota is 7-2 in its last nine road games.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Pittsburgh is 3-6 in its last nine games.
-- Braves are 5-6 in their last eleven games.
-- Cubs lost 11 of their last 13 road games.
-- Astros lost 15 of their last 19 road games.
-- Cincinnati is 9-14 in its last 23 games.
-- San Diego lost 14 of its last 20 games. Rockies lost four of six.

-- Detroit is 5-8 in its last thirteen home games.
-- Rangers are 4-6 in their last ten games.
-- Indians lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Baltimore lost nine of its last eleven road games.
-- Mariners lost 18 of their last 19 games.Tampa Bay is 10-15 in its last 25 games, but did win last two.
-- Oakland lost its last two games, allowing 19 runs.

Umpires
-- Chi-StL-- Favorite is 11-3 in last 14 Kulpa games, with three of last four going over total.
-- Pitt-Phil-- Over is 10-1-2 in last thirteen Davis games.
-- NY-Wsh-- Uner is 6-0-2 in last eight Meals games.
-- Fla-Atl-- Favorites won seven of last eight Culbreth games.
-- Hst-Mil-- Over is 8-3-1 in last dozen Kellogg games.
-- SF-Cin-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Carapazza games.
-- Col-SD-- Underdogs are 11-7 in last 18 Everitt games.
-- Az-LA-- Over is 11-3-1 in last fifteen West games.

-- Tex-Tor-- Underdogs are 9-4 in last thirteen Runge games.
-- Balt-NY-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven TWelke games. Under is 5-2-2 in last nine Fletcher games.
-- TB-Sea-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Eddings games.
-- LA-Det-- Seven of last nine Davidson games stayed under total.
-- KC-Clev-- Five of last six Diaz games went over the total.
-- Bos-Chi-- Six of last eight Darling games stayed under total.
-- Min-A's-- Nine of ten Conroy games went over the total.

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Free Silver Key Pick for Saturday ML Baseball

Tampa Bay Cobb -R -105 over SEATTLE

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Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Play Saskatchewan (+2) over Calgary

Saskatchewan won 14 of the last 16 games as a home underdog of three points or less and they have also won 13 of the last 16 home games when the total posted is between 49.5 and 56 points. Calgary has lost 8 of the last 9 games against the spread coming off two or more UNDER the totals and they have also lost 14 of the last 20 games against the spread after having lost two of the last three games.

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TNT SPORTS PICKS

EXECUTIVE CLUB
Cardinals ML
Mets ML
Rockies ML
TB Rays ML

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SPORTSBOOK GURU

2 units Boston -145

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SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets –105 over WASHINGTON

After last night’s loss the Nationals are 9-18 since Jim Riggleman gave a new meaning to walk-off win. They had won 13 of 15 when he walked away. The Nats have also dropped six in a row and eight of their past nine games. Jason Marquis is having a decent year but his July numbers suffered a regression and August doesn’t look much better. Marquis has a BAA of .283 and a borderline WHIP of 1.42. His 3.95 ERA, up from 3.62 at the beginning of July is likely going to crash some more and return to a number that matches Marquis’ mediocre skill set. Meanwhile the Mets are seeing beach balls. They’ve scored eight runs or more in four straight road games and they’ve reached double-digits in base hits in eight straight games. Over that span of eight games the Mets have hit .324 with 23 doubles, 54 runs scores and an OBP of .414. They’ve also won five straight. R.A. Dickey is so tough. His knuckler is wickedly good because it has velocity. Dickey has an ERA of 3.74 and his xERA over the past month is 3.37. He has an outstanding 53% groundball rate and he’s also striking out more batters per nine innings. The Mets are favored but they’re also underpriced. Play: N.Y. Mets –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).


San Francisco +108 over CINCINNATI

Is there a pitcher in the league that’s thrown better than Madison Bumgarner over the past couple of months? We don’t think so. Bumgarner has been near flawless in 11 of his past 12 starts. In 10 starts since May 30, Bumgarner has walked one batter or less in all 10 starts while striking out 65. The Giants have won his last six starts and the scary thing is that he’s been even better on the road than he has at home. Over his last three starts covering 21.2 frames he’s walked none and struck out 19. He’s added one MPH to his fastball and two MPH to his slider this season and he’s quickly becoming one of the top five pitchers in the game, if he isn’t already. The Reds won last night in 12 but they’ve only won two straight one time since June 13-14. They’re simply not that good and its greatest weapon, the offense, has been laboring big time. In fact, the Reds have scored three earned runs or less in eight of their past 13 games and their chances of getting three or more on Bumgarner is not good. Mike Leake has a 4.60 ERA at home. The Reds have dropped his last three starts and five of his last seven starts. His strikeout rate is trending in the wrong direction and while he’s been mostly reliable this year, he’s been rather inconsistent at home. In any case, Leake favored over Bumgarner is bordering on ludicrous. Jump on this one early because the line can only move one way. Play: San Francisco +108 (Risking 2 units).


TORONTO +108 over Texas

The Rangers have five wins in 15 road starts versus left-handed starters and will face another one today in Brad Mills. Back to Mills is a minute. The Blue Jays have won 9 of 13 games at home versus lefties and they, too, will face one here in Derek Holland. Mills has spent some time in the Majors between '09 and '10, posting a 7.80 ERA in 30 innings. For his minor league career, Mills has a 3.34 ERA, excellent control and a solid strikeout rate. The smart and athletic pitcher may not have been effective in short stints with Toronto in the past, but he still has value with his deceptively quick offerings. Mills pounds the strike zone with a solid changeup and good curveball and he mixes pitches well. The Rangers have never faced him before and it’s also worth noting that in 31 day games this season the Rangers RPG is third last in the league, ahead of only Seattle and Florida. Incidentally, Texas has just two wins in Toronto in its last 12 games here. Derek Holland has a horrible history against the Blue Jays with an ERA of 8.80 over three starts, including one this year in which he allowed 11 hits and five runs over five frames. Current Jays are batting .357 off Holland and when this guy isn’t comfortable he gets absolutely whacked and that appears to be the situation here. Play: Toronto +108 (Risking 2 units).


PHILADELPHIA –1½ -113 over Pittsburgh

Rarely will you see us laying runs and juice in the same game but this one warrants it. The Phillies have to be feeling pretty damn good about acquiring Hunter Pence and he could be the difference between winning another World Series or not. In any event, the Pirates ship is beginning to sink and James MacDonald is the captain of said ship. MacDonald has won his last two starts but don’t be fooled by the 1-0 and 3-1 scores. In both starts he was luckier than a lotto winner. In his last start against Atlanta every ball was roped and he only had three groundball outs the whole game. MacDonald was fortunate that the Braves were swinging at everything and that every ball that they hit hard (which was all of them) was right at someone. If you bet on Atlanta that night it had to be one of the most frustrating losses of the year. The Pirates have won seven of MacDonalds last eight starts but with the way he pitches those wins are unsustainable. Now he’ll face a strong-hitting Phillies club in a ballpark that is extremely unkind to fly-ball pitchers. After facing Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum prior to last night’s game, the Phillies went off on Charlie Morton last night and are very likely to go off on MacDonald here and we’ll be loving it. Oh, Cliff Lee needs no introduction. Play: Philadelphia –1½ -113 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).


SASKATCHEWAN +2 over Calgary

The Riders got off the mattress last week with an unlikely win in Montreal and one win does wonders to team morale. Still, the Riders defense is the worst in the league, especially against the pass and that’s a big problem. Henry Burris and the Stamps have been one-dimensional this season, as they’ve pretty much abandoned the running game for some strange reason but that trend could end here. The Riders defense can’t stop the marching band these days, which could easily lead to 30 plus points for Calgary. By contrast, Calgary’s pass defense is ranked tops in the CFL and that means Darian Durant will have to make some decisions and that’s not good either. Durant makes a lot of bad decisions week after week after week. Having said that, when he gets on a roll he’s as good as anyone. Besides, Calgary has some issues of its own too. Their kicking game is bordering on disastrous and that could lead to some outstanding field position for the home side. Furthermore, the Roughies have yet to win at home this season and this venue produces wins for them so it’s not going to be much longer before they break that losing home trend. This one is really a big toss-up with turnovers very likely being the deciding factor. That’s something we can’t predict but if we had to we would take the points in what should be a game that comes down to the final minutes. Play: Saskatchewan +2 (No bets).

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SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets –105 over WASHINGTON

After last night’s loss the Nationals are 9-18 since Jim Riggleman gave a new meaning to walk-off win. They had won 13 of 15 when he walked away. The Nats have also dropped six in a row and eight of their past nine games. Jason Marquis is having a decent year but his July numbers suffered a regression and August doesn’t look much better. Marquis has a BAA of .283 and a borderline WHIP of 1.42. His 3.95 ERA, up from 3.62 at the beginning of July is likely going to crash some more and return to a number that matches Marquis’ mediocre skill set. Meanwhile the Mets are seeing beach balls. They’ve scored eight runs or more in four straight road games and they’ve reached double-digits in base hits in eight straight games. Over that span of eight games the Mets have hit .324 with 23 doubles, 54 runs scores and an OBP of .414. They’ve also won five straight. R.A. Dickey is so tough. His knuckler is wickedly good because it has velocity. Dickey has an ERA of 3.74 and his xERA over the past month is 3.37. He has an outstanding 53% groundball rate and he’s also striking out more batters per nine innings. The Mets are favored but they’re also underpriced. Play: N.Y. Mets –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).


San Francisco +108 over CINCINNATI

Is there a pitcher in the league that’s thrown better than Madison Bumgarner over the past couple of months? We don’t think so. Bumgarner has been near flawless in 11 of his past 12 starts. In 10 starts since May 30, Bumgarner has walked one batter or less in all 10 starts while striking out 65. The Giants have won his last six starts and the scary thing is that he’s been even better on the road than he has at home. Over his last three starts covering 21.2 frames he’s walked none and struck out 19. He’s added one MPH to his fastball and two MPH to his slider this season and he’s quickly becoming one of the top five pitchers in the game, if he isn’t already. The Reds won last night in 12 but they’ve only won two straight one time since June 13-14. They’re simply not that good and its greatest weapon, the offense, has been laboring big time. In fact, the Reds have scored three earned runs or less in eight of their past 13 games and their chances of getting three or more on Bumgarner is not good. Mike Leake has a 4.60 ERA at home. The Reds have dropped his last three starts and five of his last seven starts. His strikeout rate is trending in the wrong direction and while he’s been mostly reliable this year, he’s been rather inconsistent at home. In any case, Leake favored over Bumgarner is bordering on ludicrous. Jump on this one early because the line can only move one way. Play: San Francisco +108 (Risking 2 units).


TORONTO +108 over Texas

The Rangers have five wins in 15 road starts versus left-handed starters and will face another one today in Brad Mills. Back to Mills is a minute. The Blue Jays have won 9 of 13 games at home versus lefties and they, too, will face one here in Derek Holland. Mills has spent some time in the Majors between '09 and '10, posting a 7.80 ERA in 30 innings. For his minor league career, Mills has a 3.34 ERA, excellent control and a solid strikeout rate. The smart and athletic pitcher may not have been effective in short stints with Toronto in the past, but he still has value with his deceptively quick offerings. Mills pounds the strike zone with a solid changeup and good curveball and he mixes pitches well. The Rangers have never faced him before and it’s also worth noting that in 31 day games this season the Rangers RPG is third last in the league, ahead of only Seattle and Florida. Incidentally, Texas has just two wins in Toronto in its last 12 games here. Derek Holland has a horrible history against the Blue Jays with an ERA of 8.80 over three starts, including one this year in which he allowed 11 hits and five runs over five frames. Current Jays are batting .357 off Holland and when this guy isn’t comfortable he gets absolutely whacked and that appears to be the situation here. Play: Toronto +108 (Risking 2 units).


PHILADELPHIA –1½ -113 over Pittsburgh

Rarely will you see us laying runs and juice in the same game but this one warrants it. The Phillies have to be feeling pretty damn good about acquiring Hunter Pence and he could be the difference between winning another World Series or not. In any event, the Pirates ship is beginning to sink and James MacDonald is the captain of said ship. MacDonald has won his last two starts but don’t be fooled by the 1-0 and 3-1 scores. In both starts he was luckier than a lotto winner. In his last start against Atlanta every ball was roped and he only had three groundball outs the whole game. MacDonald was fortunate that the Braves were swinging at everything and that every ball that they hit hard (which was all of them) was right at someone. If you bet on Atlanta that night it had to be one of the most frustrating losses of the year. The Pirates have won seven of MacDonalds last eight starts but with the way he pitches those wins are unsustainable. Now he’ll face a strong-hitting Phillies club in a ballpark that is extremely unkind to fly-ball pitchers. After facing Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum prior to last night’s game, the Phillies went off on Charlie Morton last night and are very likely to go off on MacDonald here and we’ll be loving it. Oh, Cliff Lee needs no introduction. Play: Philadelphia –1½ -113 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).


SASKATCHEWAN +2 over Calgary

The Riders got off the mattress last week with an unlikely win in Montreal and one win does wonders to team morale. Still, the Riders defense is the worst in the league, especially against the pass and that’s a big problem. Henry Burris and the Stamps have been one-dimensional this season, as they’ve pretty much abandoned the running game for some strange reason but that trend could end here. The Riders defense can’t stop the marching band these days, which could easily lead to 30 plus points for Calgary. By contrast, Calgary’s pass defense is ranked tops in the CFL and that means Darian Durant will have to make some decisions and that’s not good either. Durant makes a lot of bad decisions week after week after week. Having said that, when he gets on a roll he’s as good as anyone. Besides, Calgary has some issues of its own too. Their kicking game is bordering on disastrous and that could lead to some outstanding field position for the home side. Furthermore, the Roughies have yet to win at home this season and this venue produces wins for them so it’s not going to be much longer before they break that losing home trend. This one is really a big toss-up with turnovers very likely being the deciding factor. That’s something we can’t predict but if we had to we would take the points in what should be a game that comes down to the final minutes. Play: Saskatchewan +2 (No bets).

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Philadelphia (-250) over Pittsburgh (Top Play of the Day)

Cliff Lee has won 6 of the last 7 games vs. NL Central Division Opponents and he has also won 4 of the last 5 games as a favorite of -200 or higher. Cliff Lee is 7-2 in home games this season with an ERA of 2.05 and he has an ERA of 2.57 vs. Pittsburgh over his career.


Play Milwaukee (-250) over Houston (Top Play of the Day)

Houstonhas lost 15 of the last 17 road games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and they have also lost 23 of the last 31 games coming off a loss by four runs or more. JA Happ is 1-7 in road games this season with an ERA of 8.02 and he has an ERA of 8.99 over his last three starts.


Play St. Louis (-180) over Chicago Cubs (Bonus)