8-1-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
By: Michael Robinson

Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox (-172, 10)

The Cleveland Indians have reportedly made a huge acquisition as they start a series at the Boston Red Sox on ESPN Monday Night Baseball.

First pitch from historic Fenway Park will be at 4:00 p.m. (PT). John Lackey will oppose Josh Tomlin.

The Indians (53-51) have acquired Ubaldo Jimenez from Colorado for a bevy of talented prospects. Jimenez has an affordable contract for the next few years and should be the team ace.

There was more good news Saturday night versus Kansas City when the team rallied for four runs in the ninth inning in a 5-2 win. Matt LaPorta hit a 3-run walk-off homer. Cleveland was in freefall mode before then, losers of seven of eight.

The Indians now trail Detroit by just 1.5-games in the AL Central standings (pending Sunday’s finale) and should be revitalized for the stretch run. They already acquired outfielder Kosuke Fukudome from the Cubs and he had a crucial sacrifice fly last night, although still hitless in two games.

Tomlin (11-5, 4.01 ERA) will be pitching on an extra day’s rest, last hosting the Angels on Tuesday. He had a very solid outing, allowing just two runs on four hits over eight innings, but Cleveland still lost 2-1.

The 26-year-old right-hander continued his trend of pitching better at home (3.25 ERA) than away (4.88 ERA). Cleveland is 2-4 in his last six road outings, with just one quality start and his ERA ballooning to 6.94.

The ‘over’ is 4-0-1 in Tomlin’s last five road starts.

Tomlin did have a great outing against Boston this year, surrendering one earned run (three hits) over seven innings in an April home win (3-1). His one career appearance at Fenway was last August, allowing four earned over seven innings in a 6-2 loss.

The Red Sox (65-40) were also in the Jimenez sweepstakes, at least to some degree. They didn’t need to be as aggressive given their excellent shot of making the playoffs. They still might make a deal for Oakland starter Rich Harden and that will help with Clay Buchholz (back) hurting.

Boston split two games at the White Sox this weekend, with Sunday’s contest still pending. The Red Sox won 10-2 on Saturday night behind Jon Lester, breaking a string that saw the Pale Hose take 14 of 16 against them.

Lackey (9-8, 6.20 ERA) has drawn the ire of Red Sox fans as his production seldom matches his bloated paycheck, but he has been better his last four starts (4-0, 2.52 ERA). Three of those were at home and against the AL’s three worst teams (Baltimore, Seattle and Kansas City).

The ‘over’ is 7-2 in Lackey’s last nine starts against a team with a winning record.

The 32-year-old right-hander will now face a Cleveland offense that is averaging just 3.4 runs since the All-Star break (12th in the AL) and hasn’t hit well since leading the Junior Circuit in April (5.42).

Lackey hasn’t faced the Indians this year and has seen them just once while with Boston (six earned runs over 5 1/3 innings last August at home). His career mark against them is 6-7 with a 4.07 ERA in 15 starts.

These teams have played two series this year, both in Cleveland. Boston lost the first four games and won the last two. Cleveland is 2-7 in its last nine at Fenway.

Boston is 5-2 at home since the break and 25-10 in its last 35 there. Cleveland is 4-4 away since the break, starting both series with two wins before losing the final two.

The ‘under’ is 6-1 in Cleveland’s last seven games. The ‘over’ is 19-6-1 in Boston’s last 26 home games against a right-handed starter.

Cleveland should be boosted later this month by the return of outfielder Shin-Soo Choo (thumb injury), with Grady Sizemore (hernia) behind him.

Weather should be around 80 degrees with thunderstorms possible. Cleveland faces the tough Josh Beckett on Tuesday, while scheduled to throw out David Huff.

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
By: Michael Robinson

Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox (-172, 10)

The Cleveland Indians have reportedly made a huge acquisition as they start a series at the Boston Red Sox on ESPN Monday Night Baseball.

First pitch from historic Fenway Park will be at 4:00 p.m. (PT). John Lackey will oppose Josh Tomlin.

The Indians (53-51) have acquired Ubaldo Jimenez from Colorado for a bevy of talented prospects. Jimenez has an affordable contract for the next few years and should be the team ace.

There was more good news Saturday night versus Kansas City when the team rallied for four runs in the ninth inning in a 5-2 win. Matt LaPorta hit a 3-run walk-off homer. Cleveland was in freefall mode before then, losers of seven of eight.

The Indians now trail Detroit by just 1.5-games in the AL Central standings (pending Sunday’s finale) and should be revitalized for the stretch run. They already acquired outfielder Kosuke Fukudome from the Cubs and he had a crucial sacrifice fly last night, although still hitless in two games.

Tomlin (11-5, 4.01 ERA) will be pitching on an extra day’s rest, last hosting the Angels on Tuesday. He had a very solid outing, allowing just two runs on four hits over eight innings, but Cleveland still lost 2-1.

The 26-year-old right-hander continued his trend of pitching better at home (3.25 ERA) than away (4.88 ERA). Cleveland is 2-4 in his last six road outings, with just one quality start and his ERA ballooning to 6.94.

The ‘over’ is 4-0-1 in Tomlin’s last five road starts.

Tomlin did have a great outing against Boston this year, surrendering one earned run (three hits) over seven innings in an April home win (3-1). His one career appearance at Fenway was last August, allowing four earned over seven innings in a 6-2 loss.

The Red Sox (65-40) were also in the Jimenez sweepstakes, at least to some degree. They didn’t need to be as aggressive given their excellent shot of making the playoffs. They still might make a deal for Oakland starter Rich Harden and that will help with Clay Buchholz (back) hurting.

Boston split two games at the White Sox this weekend, with Sunday’s contest still pending. The Red Sox won 10-2 on Saturday night behind Jon Lester, breaking a string that saw the Pale Hose take 14 of 16 against them.

Lackey (9-8, 6.20 ERA) has drawn the ire of Red Sox fans as his production seldom matches his bloated paycheck, but he has been better his last four starts (4-0, 2.52 ERA). Three of those were at home and against the AL’s three worst teams (Baltimore, Seattle and Kansas City).

The ‘over’ is 7-2 in Lackey’s last nine starts against a team with a winning record.

The 32-year-old right-hander will now face a Cleveland offense that is averaging just 3.4 runs since the All-Star break (12th in the AL) and hasn’t hit well since leading the Junior Circuit in April (5.42).

Lackey hasn’t faced the Indians this year and has seen them just once while with Boston (six earned runs over 5 1/3 innings last August at home). His career mark against them is 6-7 with a 4.07 ERA in 15 starts.

These teams have played two series this year, both in Cleveland. Boston lost the first four games and won the last two. Cleveland is 2-7 in its last nine at Fenway.

Boston is 5-2 at home since the break and 25-10 in its last 35 there. Cleveland is 4-4 away since the break, starting both series with two wins before losing the final two.

The ‘under’ is 6-1 in Cleveland’s last seven games. The ‘over’ is 19-6-1 in Boston’s last 26 home games against a right-handed starter.

Cleveland should be boosted later this month by the return of outfielder Shin-Soo Choo (thumb injury), with Grady Sizemore (hernia) behind him.

Weather should be around 80 degrees with thunderstorms possible. Cleveland faces the tough Josh Beckett on Tuesday, while scheduled to throw out David Huff.

[Mr. IWS]

Monday's Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (12-4, 2.72 ERA)

Even when Kershaw isn’t at his best, he’s still pretty dominant. He gave up two runs in a 3-2 win over Colorado, allowing eight hits and walking a couple of batters. It was the first time he had allowed a run in four starts.

"I wasn't getting ahead of hitters," Kershaw told reporters after firing a career-high 125 pitches over 6 2/3 innings. "And when I did get ahead of them, I really couldn't put them away."

Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers (8-4, 4.50 ERA)

Greinke is coming off a 2-0 win over Chicago that saw him go 6 2/3 innings while striking out nine batters, the sixth time in 10 starts that he has at least that many strikeouts.

We haven’t seen that sort of mastery from Greinke in a while; it was the first scoreless outing for the 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner since he joined the Brewers and maybe that was what he needed to get back on track.


SLUMPING

Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox (4-4, 5.27 ERA)

The White Sox are still waiting for the real Jake Peavy to come around. Chicago has dropped each of his last four starts and Peavy is working on a 0-3 record with a 6.67 ERA in his last five. He gave up 10 hits and four earned runs on 10 hits during a 5-4 loss to the Tigers the last time he climbed the bump.

“Ran out of gas a little bit. Went as hard as I could for as long as I could,” Peavy told reporters. “But didn’t have good stuff the later the game went.”

Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds (7-9, 5.58 ERA)

We really didn’t want to throw Arroyo in our Slumping section again today, but the guy isn’t giving us much choice. He gave up four runs in his last trip to the hill, including another home run, in an 8-2 loss to the New York Mets.

He has now allowed at least four runs in each of his last six outings. Not surprisingly, the Reds have lost four of those contests.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Monday’s Best MLB Bets

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-140, 7.5)

No one expected the Pirates to be in this position in the NL Central at this point of the year, but now that they’re in the thick of the race, they’re going all in.

Pittsburgh picked up first baseman Derrek Lee from the Baltimore Orioles Saturday night in an effort to give Andrew McCutchen some protection in the batting order. Lee is only hitting .246 with 12 homers and 41 RBIs, though he has really turned things around lately, batting .309 with 16 RBIs in his last 19 games.

"We are pleased to add a quality veteran player like Derrek Lee to our ballclub," general manager Neal Huntington said in a statement. "He is an experienced, productive right-handed hitter and solid defender who should add to our team on the field and in the clubhouse."

There was some talk the Bucs were upset Lee didn’t join the club in time for Sunday’s game, but he’ll make a difference Monday.

PICK: Pittsburgh


Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (+130, 7.5)

The Atlanta Braves finally got the leadoff speedster they’ve been looking for when they acquired Michael Bourn from the Houston Astros over the weekend.

"Michael Bourn is a perfect fit for our club, which focuses on speed and defense to match up with our strong pitching," Braves general manager Frank Wren told reporters. "This trade gives us the first true leadoff hitter we've had in a number of years."

Bourn instantly makes this offense a lot more potent with his speed on the base paths, not to mention the defensive impact he’ll make in the outfield.

Atlanta routinely takes Washington to the cleaners and there isn’t much value on a Braves bet so we’ll jump on the over, which is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings between the two clubs.

PICK: Over

[Mr. IWS]

Monday’s Betting Tips: Chicago White Sox Still Riding Under Trend

Who’s Hot

MLB: The under is 19-5-4 in the last 28 games the White Sox have played.

MLB: Philadelphia is 19-7 in its last 26 games against Colorado.

Who’s Not

MLB: The Cubs are 2-9 in their last 11 games in Pittsburgh.

MLB: Washington is 3-13 in Livan Hernandez’s last 16 starts.

Key Stat

+1200 – Oddsmakers currently have Tiger Woods set at +1200 to win the PGA Championship in a couple of weeks despite the fact he hasn’t played in almost three months. Woods announced he will play in the tournament Sunday after missing the first two majors of the year. Rory McIlroy is the tournament favorite at +800 while Phil Mickelson is at +1000.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Derek Jeter, New York Yankees – Jeter was forced to leave Sunday’s game after he was hit in the hand with a pitch. His status is uncertain for Monday’s game against the Chicago White Sox. Jeter is hitting .269 with four home runs and 36 RBIs this season.

Game Of The Day

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-130, 6)

Notable Quotable

"There is every medical indication that he is progressing steadily. While he looks fine, he still has some rehabilitation to go. Recovery from disc surgery is unpredictable and it is not a medical concern that he is not ready at this time." – Indianapolis Colts neurosurgeon Dr. Hank Feuer said about Peyton Manning’s neck injury in a statement. Manning, who has never missed a regular season game, signed a five-year, $90-million contract over the weekend and was placed on the PUP list as he rehabs from offseason neck surgery. The Colts are set as +1600 to win Super Bowl XLVI.

Tips And Notes

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Lance Berkman returned to the lineup Sunday after missing some time last week with a shoulder injury. Berkman is batting .286 with 27 home runs and 69 RBIs this season. St. Louis is set as a +110 underdog Tuesday in Milwaukee.

It went down to the wire of Sunday's 4 p.m. ET trade deadline, but the Boston Red Sox did secure some starting pitching help by acquiring lefty Erik Bedard from the Seattle Mariners. Boston thought it had a deal in place for Oakland's Rich Harden on Saturday, but that deal fell through. "He's a guy who has shown he can pitch in the American League East. First half of the year before he tweaked that knee he was pretty solid," manager Terry Francona said of Bedard. "His stuff was good. We're excited." The Red Sox have yet to decide on when he'll make his first start with his new team.

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

LA Dodgers at San Diego

The Dodgers look to take advantage of a San Diego team that is 2-10 in its last 12 games with the total set at 6 1/2 or lower. Los Angeles is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-125). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, AUGUST 1
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST Game 901-902: Atlanta at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.981; Washington (Hernandez) 14.694
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); Under Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 13.564; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.631
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-145); Over Game 905-906: Florida at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Vazquez) 16.083; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.872
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+100); Over Game 907-908: Cincinnati at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.839; Houston (Norris) 15.181
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+100); Under Game 909-910: St. Louis at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.543; Milwaukee (Greinke) 16.770
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-125); Under Game 911-912: Philadelphia at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.236; Colorado (Chacin) 14.795
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-135); Over Game 913-914: LA Dodgers at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.617; San Diego (Luebke) 14.124
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-125); Over Game 915-916: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 14.801; San Francisco (Cain) 15.592
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 5
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Under Game 917-918: Cleveland at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Tomlin) 14.255; Boston (Lackey) 16.835
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Under Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.196; White Sox (Peavy) 15.110
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Over Game 921-922: Oakland at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 16.274; Seattle (Beavan) 13.928
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

687- 516 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Monday Phillies -140

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

What's so hard about raising the debt ceiling? Hondo blew the roof right off his over the weekend, losing 7 straight, with the last three coming yesterday with the Rangers, Angels and Metamucils.

Tonight, with the IURN (incredibly ugly red number) at 2,175 furillos, Mr. Aitch will load up with a 20-unit play on Kershaw and the Dodgers.

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Indians Sunday.

Monday it's the Mets. The deficit is 2703 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PLAY

Under 6.5 runs bet. Seattle and Oakland

[Mr. IWS]

Free Silver Key Pick for Monday ML Baseball

Over 10 Total Runs, Cleveland at BOSTON

[Mr. IWS]

MLB
Write-Up


Monday, August 1

Hot pitchers
-- Braves won last seven Jurrjens starts (4-0, 2.84).
-- Zambrano is 1-1, 3.05 in his last three road starts.
-- Vazquez is 2-1, 2.33 in his last four road starts.
-- Milwaukee is 8-0 at home when Greinke starts (2.29 RA last three). Carpenter is 5-0, 2.38 in his last seven starts.
-- Chacin is 3-0, 3.28 in his last four home starts. Hamels is 6-4, 2.14 in his last dozen starts.
-- Kershaw is 4-0, 1.82 in his last four starts.
-- Kennedy is 4-0, 2.42 in his last four starts; he's allowed one run in 16 innings in two starts vs SF this year, but didn't get decision either time. Cain is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts.

-- Lackey is 4-0, 3.38 in his last four starts (Red Sox scored 32 runs).
-- Sabathia is 6-1, 0.82 in his last seven starts.
-- Beaven is 1-2, 3.04 in four starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- LHernandez is 0-2, 8.24 in his last four starts.
-- Pirates lost last three Maholm starts (0-1, 4.50).
-- Pelfrey is 1-1, 5.68 in his last three starts.
-- Norris is 1-1, 4.65 in his last five starts. Arroyo is 1-3, 7.61 in his last six starts.
-- Luebke is 1-3, 4.13 in his last four starts.

-- Tomlin is 1-1, 5.40 in his last four starts.
-- Peavy is 0-3, 6.67 in his last five starts.
-- Cahill is 1-3, 8.69 in his last four road starts.

Totals
-- Three of last four Jurrjens starts went over the total.
-- Five of last six Maholm starts went over. Four of last five Zambrano starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 10-5-1 in Mets' last sixteen games.
-- Five of last six Arroyo starts went over the total.
-- Over is 8-3-1 in last twelve Cardinal games.
-- Over is 7-0-2 in Chacin's last nine home starts.
-- Over is 8-0-1 in last nine games at Petco Park.
-- Four of Kennedy's last five road starts went over the total.

-- Over is 9-2 in Lackey's last eleven starts.
-- Six of last nine Peavy starts went over the total.
-- 11 of last 12 Oakland games went over the total.

Hot Teams
-- Atlanta won four of its last six games.
-- Florida won nine of its last twelve road games.
-- Brewers won nine of their last ten home games. Cardinals won seven of their last ten games overall.
-- Cincinnati won its last three games, scoring 20 runs, but they're 4-8 in their last dozen road games.
-- Phillies won nine of their last 12 games. Colorado won three of its last four games.
-- Arizona won seven of its last nine games.

-- Red Sox won 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Bronx won 11 of its last 16 games.
-- A's are 10-6 since the All-Star break.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost eight of their last eleven games, but won last two.
-- Mets are 1-6 in last seven home series openers.
-- Pittsburgh lost five of its last six games. Cubs lost 12 of their last 15 road games.
-- Astros lost eight of their last ten games.
-- San Diego lost 15 of its last 22 games. Dodgers lost three of four, and are 3-8 in their last eleven road games.
-- Giants lost their last three games, outscored 20-5.

-- Indians lost eight of their last ten games.
-- White Sox lost eight of their last 12 home games.
-- Mariners lost 19 of their last 21 games.

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

RedSox + Indians UNDER 10

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

RedSox + Indians UNDER 10