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Free Silver Key Pick for Tuesday ML Baseball
Over 7.5 Total Runs, Cincinnati at HOUSTON
Over 7.5 Total Runs, Cincinnati at HOUSTON
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MLB
Write-Up
Tuesday, August 2
Hot pitchers
-- Hand is 1-0, 1.93 in his last three starts, but only lasted 14 IP.
-- Marcum is 3-0, 3.00 in his last three starts. JGarcia is 3-2, 3.06 in his last five starts.
-- Cook is 2-0, 2.77 in his last couple starts.
-- Lincecum is 3-1, 1.08 in his last four starts.
-- Scherzer is 2-2, 1.95 in his last four starts. Lewis is 2-1, 2.05 in his last three starts.
-- Beckett is 3-1, 2.31 in his last five starts. Huff is 1-1, 1.42 in his two starts this season.
-- Romero is 3-3, 3.42 in his last eight starts.
-- Danks is 4-0, 1.47 in his last six starts.
-- Santana is 3-0, 2.17 in his last six starts; last start was a no-hitter. Duensing is 4-1, 3.99 in his last six starts.
-- Harden is 1-0, 3.44 in his last three starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Wells is 1-3, 6.55 in his last six starts. Correia is 1-2, 7.40 in his last four outings.
-- Lowe is 1-3, 6.05 in his last four starts. Lannan is 2-2, 4.54 in his six starts since Washington changed managers.
-- Capuano is 1-3, 5.76 in his last four starts.
-- Bailey is 2-4, 6.64 in his last seven starts. WRodriguez is 1-3, 5.52 in his last five starts.
-- Kendrick is 1-1, 4.94 in his last five starts.
-- Kuroda is 0-4, 4.07 in his last four starts. Latos is 0-2, 3.69 in his last five outings.
-- DHudson is 1-2, 5.64 in his last five starts.
-- Price is 1-3, 5.05 in his last five starts.
-- Hughes is 1-2, 5.49 in his last four starts.
-- Chen is 1-3, 6.17 in his last six starts. Simon is 1-3, 3.86 in four starts this season.
-- FHernandez is 1-3, 5.64 in his last four home starts.
Totals
-- Over is 6-1 in Correia's last seven starts.
-- Over is 10-2 in Lowe's last twelve starts.
-- Five of six Hand starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in Bailey starts this season.
-- Over is 8-3-1 in last twelve Cardinal games.
-- Over is 5-2 in last seven Cook starts.
-- Over is 8-0-1 in last nine games at Petco Park. Under is 7-3 in last ten Kuroda starts.
-- Under is 6-1 in last seven Lincecum starts. Over is 5-1 in last six DHudson starts.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Scherzer starts.
-- Six of last seven Beckett starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Price's last six home starts.
-- Eight of last nine Danks starts stayed under the total. Over is 5-1-1 in Hughes starts this season.
-- Three of four Simon starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-1-2 in last ten Santana starts.
-- 12 of last 13 Oakland games went over the total.
Hot Teams
-- Washington won its last three games,
-- Florida won ten of its last thirteen road games.
-- Brewers won 10 of their last 11 home games. Cardinals won seven of their last eleven games overall.
-- Phillies won 10 of their last 13 games.
-- Arizona won eight of its last ten games.
-- Red Sox won 11 of their last 16 games.
-- Bronx won 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Blue Jays won four of their last five games. Tampa Bay won three of its last four.
-- Royals won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Angels won eight of their last twelve games.
Cold Teams
-- Braves lost their last three road games, allowing 20 runs.
-- Mets lost their last three games, scoring five runs.
-- Pittsburgh lost six of its last seven games. Cubs lost 12 of their last 16 road games.
-- Astros lost eight of their last eleven games. Cincinnati is 4-9 in its last thirteen road games.
-- Colorado lost six of its last nine games.
-- San Diego lost 16 of its last 23 games. Dodgers are 4-8 in their last twelve road games.
-- Giants lost their last four games, outscored 25-7.
-- Rangers lost four of their last five road games. Detroit is 1-5 in game following its last six wins.
-- Indians lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- White Sox lost nine of their last 13 home games.
-- Orioles lost five of their last six games.
-- Minnesota lost three of its last four games.
-- Mariners lost 19 of their last 22 games. Oakland lost nine of its last 11 road games.
Umpires
-- Chi-Pitt-- Under is 4-1-2 in last seven Tumpane games.
-- Atl-Wsh-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Carapazza games.
-- Fla-NY-- Favorites won nine of last ten TWelke games.
-- Cin-Hst-- Under is 11-4 in last fifteen Reyburn games.
-- StL-Mil-- Over is 10-6 in last sixteen Drake games.
-- Phil-Col-- Three of last four Scott games stayed under total.
-- LA-SD-- Five of last six Miller games stayed under total.
-- Az-SF-- Over is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Vanover games.
-- Clev-Bos-- Underdogs won seven of last ten Tichenor games.
-- NY-Chi-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven TBarrett games.
-- A's-Sea-- Four of last five Winters games stayed under total.Comment
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SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. METS –1 +120 over Florida
If you don’t have the option of laying a single run then you may want to lay the 22 cents on the Mets. The best pitch in baseball is still strike one and Brad Hand of the Marlins wants no part of that. Hand is a ball-throwing machine and what we mean is ball 1, ball 2, ball 3 and ball 4. He’s constantly behind in the count and in fact, he’s already walked 21 batters in 29 frames while striking out 17. In his last start against the Nats he walked six in 3.2 innings before being yanked. What’s even more amazing is his 2.73 ERA and that number is unsustainable because not only does he walk folks regularly but his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is pretty ugly too at 28%/18%/54%. He has a strand rate of 91% and to say he’s been lucky is an understatement. Hand cannot maintain an ERA below three, it’s simply impossible for it to stay where it is over time, as he’s not shown an ability to locate his pitches and that, too, is an understatement. His xERA of 8.73 is six runs higher than his actual ERA and his xERA is something that should be paid attention to because it’s a better barometer of what’s in store for him. The Mets are a patient hitting team, they draw a lot of walks and they also steal a lot of bases. Chris Capuano was on a roll in June, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Those marks came with full skill support and a 104 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups). And this was not a one-month skill fluke. His BPV by month: 85, 90, 104 and 65 in July. His last three starts have been shaky after the fifth inning but he’s still is striking out batters and that’s a good sign. Besides, this one is more about playing against a guy that can’t find the plate. Play: N.Y. Mets –1 +120 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +124 over MILWAUKEE
The Cardinals are in a good spot here in that send out Jamie Garcia to face a Brewers team that is much worse against southpaws. Garcia has posted the best skills of any starter age 26 or younger with an outstanding 55% groundball rate, a terrific strikeout rate and a 121 BPV. Garcia has posted a 100+ BPV in each month and an amazing 60%+ GB% in two separate months. In addition, Garcia has become a true three-pitch pitcher this season. He is throwing three pitches (fastball, cut fastball and changeup) at least 17% of the time. This is a guy worth riding and you can double that when taking back a price. By contrast, Shaun Marcum has a 36% groundball rate and he’s been lucky in that when he gives up homeruns and he does, the damage has been minimal with nobody on base. That’s a fluke. Marcum has been taken yard in eight straight games and that’s what you get with an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Marcum has outstanding control and his strikeout rate and walk ratio are very similar to that of Jamie Garcia. However, as mentioned above, Marcum has given up eight jacks in his last eight outings and the Cardinals strikeout fewer times than any team in the majors. Play: St. Louis +124 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia –1 +111 over COLORADO
Aaron Cook should get cooked here. To begin with he’s 1-6 vs the Phillies with an ERA of 6.05 after giving up an incredible 83 hits in 58 innings. That’s when he was better than he is right now, which isn’t saying much because he was never any good and still isn’t. Cook has 17 K’s in 52 innings and he’s walked 21 over that same stretch. This season he’s given up 68 hits in 51 innings for a BAA of .329 and a WHIP of 1.73. He’s winless at Coors and chances are he’ll remain winless . The Rocks plan was evident at the deadline. This year is a write off and the state on mind of the whole team is definitely in question. The Phillies loaded up at the deadline and their plan to go for the gusto was also evident. Kyle Kendrick pitches for a team that gives him win potential and he’s responded. He’s allowed three runs or less in eight of his past nine starts and his once concerning control is improving. When you watch and get mentored by Halladay, Lee and Hamels every day you’re bound to pick up something and Kendrick has. The Phillies laying a short price against Aaron Cook is a play you should make 100% of the time. Play: Philadelphia –109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Minnesota +154 over L.A. ANGELS
This one is all about playing against Earvin Santana after he threw a no-hitter in his last start. A game like that starts off like any other and once you get to the fifth or sixth inning, things start to get really intense. The pitcher starts thinking about it and suddenly every pitch has big meaning. When it’s over the World Series like victory begins and then afterwards it’s reporters, emails, telephone calls and text messages that all have to be answered over the next few days, not to mention the ongoing celebration. The no-hitter does not end after the last pitch of the night, it goes on for days and now Santana has to go out there again and he won’t be as prepared or jacked up as a normal start. This is an angle that doesn’t come up often but when it does it has a great rate of success over the years and it’s for that reason that the Twinkies offer up tremendous value here. Play: Minnesota +154 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. METS –1 +120 over Florida
If you don’t have the option of laying a single run then you may want to lay the 22 cents on the Mets. The best pitch in baseball is still strike one and Brad Hand of the Marlins wants no part of that. Hand is a ball-throwing machine and what we mean is ball 1, ball 2, ball 3 and ball 4. He’s constantly behind in the count and in fact, he’s already walked 21 batters in 29 frames while striking out 17. In his last start against the Nats he walked six in 3.2 innings before being yanked. What’s even more amazing is his 2.73 ERA and that number is unsustainable because not only does he walk folks regularly but his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is pretty ugly too at 28%/18%/54%. He has a strand rate of 91% and to say he’s been lucky is an understatement. Hand cannot maintain an ERA below three, it’s simply impossible for it to stay where it is over time, as he’s not shown an ability to locate his pitches and that, too, is an understatement. His xERA of 8.73 is six runs higher than his actual ERA and his xERA is something that should be paid attention to because it’s a better barometer of what’s in store for him. The Mets are a patient hitting team, they draw a lot of walks and they also steal a lot of bases. Chris Capuano was on a roll in June, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Those marks came with full skill support and a 104 BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups). And this was not a one-month skill fluke. His BPV by month: 85, 90, 104 and 65 in July. His last three starts have been shaky after the fifth inning but he’s still is striking out batters and that’s a good sign. Besides, this one is more about playing against a guy that can’t find the plate. Play: N.Y. Mets –1 +120 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +124 over MILWAUKEE
The Cardinals are in a good spot here in that send out Jamie Garcia to face a Brewers team that is much worse against southpaws. Garcia has posted the best skills of any starter age 26 or younger with an outstanding 55% groundball rate, a terrific strikeout rate and a 121 BPV. Garcia has posted a 100+ BPV in each month and an amazing 60%+ GB% in two separate months. In addition, Garcia has become a true three-pitch pitcher this season. He is throwing three pitches (fastball, cut fastball and changeup) at least 17% of the time. This is a guy worth riding and you can double that when taking back a price. By contrast, Shaun Marcum has a 36% groundball rate and he’s been lucky in that when he gives up homeruns and he does, the damage has been minimal with nobody on base. That’s a fluke. Marcum has been taken yard in eight straight games and that’s what you get with an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Marcum has outstanding control and his strikeout rate and walk ratio are very similar to that of Jamie Garcia. However, as mentioned above, Marcum has given up eight jacks in his last eight outings and the Cardinals strikeout fewer times than any team in the majors. Play: St. Louis +124 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia –1 +111 over COLORADO
Aaron Cook should get cooked here. To begin with he’s 1-6 vs the Phillies with an ERA of 6.05 after giving up an incredible 83 hits in 58 innings. That’s when he was better than he is right now, which isn’t saying much because he was never any good and still isn’t. Cook has 17 K’s in 52 innings and he’s walked 21 over that same stretch. This season he’s given up 68 hits in 51 innings for a BAA of .329 and a WHIP of 1.73. He’s winless at Coors and chances are he’ll remain winless . The Rocks plan was evident at the deadline. This year is a write off and the state on mind of the whole team is definitely in question. The Phillies loaded up at the deadline and their plan to go for the gusto was also evident. Kyle Kendrick pitches for a team that gives him win potential and he’s responded. He’s allowed three runs or less in eight of his past nine starts and his once concerning control is improving. When you watch and get mentored by Halladay, Lee and Hamels every day you’re bound to pick up something and Kendrick has. The Phillies laying a short price against Aaron Cook is a play you should make 100% of the time. Play: Philadelphia –109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Minnesota +154 over L.A. ANGELS
This one is all about playing against Earvin Santana after he threw a no-hitter in his last start. A game like that starts off like any other and once you get to the fifth or sixth inning, things start to get really intense. The pitcher starts thinking about it and suddenly every pitch has big meaning. When it’s over the World Series like victory begins and then afterwards it’s reporters, emails, telephone calls and text messages that all have to be answered over the next few days, not to mention the ongoing celebration. The no-hitter does not end after the last pitch of the night, it goes on for days and now Santana has to go out there again and he won’t be as prepared or jacked up as a normal start. This is an angle that doesn’t come up often but when it does it has a great rate of success over the years and it’s for that reason that the Twinkies offer up tremendous value here. Play: Minnesota +154 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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FantasySportsGametime
MLB Baseball Tuesday
Play Pittsburgh (-140) over Chicago Cubs (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Pittsburgh has won 25 of the last 41 games vs. division opponents and they have also won 9 of the last 12 games after having lost five or six of the last seven games. Kevin Correia has won 15 of the last 19 games as a favorite of -125 to -175 and he has also won 18 of the last 25 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs.
Play Boston (-245) over Cleveland (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Josh Beckett has won 13 of the last 15 home games as a favorite of -200 or higher and he has also won 23 of the last 33 home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Josh Beckett is 4-1 in home games this season with an ERA of 1.88 and he has an ERA of 1.64 over his last three starts.
Play Seattle (-155) over Oakland (Bonus)Comment
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MLBPredictions
Kevin
3.5* Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays – UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-115)
We will see a solid pitching match up tonight with Romero on the mound for the Jays and Price on the mound for the Rays. Ricky Romero is 8-9 on the season with a 3.08 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Batters are hitting just .230 against Romero, who is coming off of 8.1 innings of 4 hit shutout baseball against the Orioles. Romero is 3-3 with a 3.69 ERA against Tampa Bay career. David Price is 9-9 on the season with a 3.76 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Batters are hitting just .238 against Price, who loves playing against the Blue Birds. Price is 8-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his nine career starts against Toronto, which included 8.2 innings of work against them in May. This is a big series for the two teams, as the Blue Jays sit only 1.5 games back of the Rays in the division. It looks as neither team will be in playoff contention, but third place in the AL East is up for grabs. Note that the Rays average just 3.27 runs per game at home, while the Jays are averaging 4.41 runs per game on the road. The UNDER is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 games as an underdog and 8-2 in their last 10 game as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Romero’s last 10 starts overall, and 4-0-1 in his last 5 road starts. The UNDER is also 4-0-1 in Romero’s last 5 vs divisional opponents, and 6-0-1 in his last 7 starts with 5 days of rest. Although the Rays have been playing the over as of late, the UNDER is 4-1 in the Rays last 5 vs AL East opponents, and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 8-2-1 in the Rays last 11 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Overall the Rays play the UNDER at home, with the UNDER being 51-17-2 in their last 70 home games and 41-12-2 in their last 55 games as a home favorite. The UNDER is 21-6-1 in Price’s last 28 home starts, and 5-1 in his last 6 home starts vs the Blue Jays. Note that the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in these two teams last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay, and 5-1 in their last 6 meetings overall. Another factor to look at is the Blue Jays slugger, Jose Bautista, who hasn’t gone deep in 14 games. David Price absolutely loves playing the Blue Jays, Romero has been solid for the most part of the season, the Rays play the UNDER heavily at home, and these two teams have played the UNDER in 5 of their last 6 meetings. Everything points to the UNDER here, and I was very surprised to see this total at 7.5 when I woke up this morning.
Take the generous 7.5 line and the UNDER.Comment
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RICHIE CARRERA
Atlanta -120 over WASHINGTON 5 Dimes (Risk 6)
These are the games that ATL needs to win if they are serious about making noise in this years playoffs. They should bounce back from their loss on the road and even up the series against an inferior Washington team. The pitching matchup leans slightly to the Nats, but with Bourn at the top of that lineup, the Braves aren't as susceptible to lefties like Lannan as they had been all year. Dan Uggla is also hitting the cover off of the ball... He wasn't going to back 175 all year! Take the Braves on the road and pay the extra juice!Comment
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WUNDERDOG
MLB 3-2 last 5 picks +$40
1 OF 4
Game: Philadelphia at Colorado (8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Colorado +100 (moneyline)
The Rockies have always been tough at home, and did lose a tough 1-run decision to the Phillies here last night. Kyle Kendrick has been used in relief as well as a starter, but despite the Phillies .600+ winning percentage, they are just a .500 team behind Kendrick. Aaron Cook has been a 16-game winner for the Rockies in the past and has had a tough season. Recently, however, he has pitched up to his potential, including a seven-inning scoreless stint in his last outing. The Phillies are 0-4 when Kendrick is on normal four days of rest his last four starts, and Cook has been at his best at home vs. a team with a winning record. The Rockies have posted a 7-3 mark in his last 10 in this situation.
My call is on Colorado.Comment
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