8-7-11

[timbob]

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[timbob]

Ben Burns

early blowout "chalk" game: 8 star: TAMPA BAY M/L

[timbob]

Ben Burns


10* Yankees / Red Sox Under 9

I'm playing on New York and Boston to finish UNDER the total. After a low-scoring (3-2) opener, yesterday's game sailed above the number with 14 runs. I expect this evening's finale to see a return to the type of pitching we saw on Friday.

Beckett is a perfect 3-0 against the Yankees this season. He's allowed only two runs in 21 innings, striking out 25. His lone home 2011 start against the Yankees saw him allow just two hits through eight shutout innings, striking out 10, en route to a 4-0 victory.

For the season, Beckett is 9-4 with a superb 2.20 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .187 against him. In 10 home starts, he's 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA. In 17 evening starts, he's 7-3 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.

Garcia has been to€ugh lately. He's got a 2.21 ERA his last three starts. While he hasn't been at his best vs. Boston, Garcia has been excellent on the road. In eight road starts this season, he's got a 2.85 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Four of his last five starts have produced eight or fewer combined runs. His last road start saw him toss 6 2/3 shutout innings, en route to a 4-0 victory. I look for another well pitched affair.


9* Brewers / Astros Under 7.5

I'm playing on Milwaukee and Houston to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both finished above the number. In fact, the Brewers have now seen six straight games top the total. However, before that they'd seen six straight contests stay below the number. I expect a return to those low-scoring ways in this afternoon's finale.

Greinke's last start finished above the total by half a run, a 6-2 victory. That wasn't Greinke's fault though, as he delivered another gem. The former Cy Young award winner has a 1.81 ERA and 0.966 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, he's got 128 K's in 100 innings, walking only 22.

Norris has been solid at home all season. In 13 starts here, he's got a 3.09 ERA. His last three starts have all fallen below the total.

Norris is 3-0 with a 2.32 ERA vs the Brewers. His lone 2011 start against them resulted in a 5-0 shutout and saw Norris record 11 K's in 7 2/3 innings. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in his five career starts in the series - and the lone 'over' came on the road.

Meanwhile, Greinke has a 1.13 ERA from his lone start vs. the Astros. That game resulted in a 2-1 win back in 2009. The UNDER has been highly profitable when the Brewers have been road favorites of this size over the years. I expect another well-pitched affair here.


9* Dodgers / Diamondbacks Under 7.5

I'm playing on LA and Arizona to finish UNDER the total. After seeing 10 consecutive games finish above the total, the Diamondbacks finally were involved in a game which stayed beneath the number yesterday. I expect this afternoon's contest to be even lower-scoring.

Kennedy has been tough all season and he's gone 3-0 with a terrific 1.71 ERA and 0.857 WHIP his last three starts. He's 5-2 with a very solid 3.13 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 12 home starts, seven of which have fallen below the number. He has 71 K's with only 21 walks here, averaging 6.9 innings per home start.

Kershaw has been equally impressive of late. He's 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.929 WHIP his last three starts, averaging 7.9 innings in those starts. For the season, he's 13-4 with a stellar 2.68 ERA and 1.029 WHIP. In 161 innings, he's got 177 K's and only 42 walks.

Kershaw is 5-1 with a 1.90 ERA vs. Arizona. Meanwhile, Kennedy has been excellent a€against the Dodgers in winning both his 2011 starts against them. Those games finished with scores of 4-1 and 3-2. I look for another pitcher's duel.