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LT Profits
Royals +156
Twins +105
Nationals +173
Phillies/Dodgers UNDER 6 -110
Royals +156
Twins +105
Nationals +173
Phillies/Dodgers UNDER 6 -110
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WUNDERDOG
MLB 20-11 last 31 picks +$1720
1 OF 7
Game: Philadelphia at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5 runs -125 (runline)
The Phillies' pitching has spoken for itself as they held the Giants to 6 runs in their four-game series and despite that, they managed to lose a game. The bottom line is if you're going to beat this team, you had better bring an ace to the hill, and the Dodgers have that answer in Huroki Kuroda. Kuroda comes in with a 2.96 ERA and far away from Roy Halladay in name, but very close to Halladay's 2.55 ERA on the season. Finding bad numbers on Halladay isn't easy, but the Dodgers are 8-2 at home in their last 10 vs. a right-hander, certainly puts their lineup in a competitive spot vs. Halladay, especially when taking them on the +1.5 runline. The blue and white have also gone 9-4 in their last 13 at home. Before you dismiss their chances here, consider that the Dodgers have beaten Lincecum twice, Weaver, Carpenter, Hudson, Jurrgens, Cueto, Oswalt, Jimenez and Stauffer this season, not a bad All-Star lineup of pitchers. Play the Dodgers on the runline here.Comment
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Picksandpredictions
5,000 San Francisco Giants MLComment
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Tys Terrific Picks
Play of the Day
Philadelphia Phillies ML -160
Boston Red Sox ML -125
San Francisco Giants ML -170
Free Pick: Texas Rangers ML -210Comment
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SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona –1½ +123
The D-Backs snapped a mini three-game losing streak in style yesterday by beating one of the best in Clayton Kershaw. That’s a good win because Kershaw seldom loses and it really instills a positive state of mind heading into this series against the dreadful Astros and Wandy Rodriguez. At the age of 32, Rodriguez has spent time on the DL this season with elbow issues. He’s put up some very decent numbers that include 109 k’s in 127 frames with just 41 walks. He’s also posted a solid 3.69 ERA and an acceptable 1.30 WHIP. However, there are some warning signs. First, Rodriguez's velocity is down over the last three years (90.1 mph, 89.6 mph, 88.8 mph) so this deserves continued observation especially in light of the recent elbow issues. Also note that since his return from the DL, Rodriguez’s strikeout rate is way down. In fact, just once since his return has he struck out more than three batters in a game. He’s also surrendered five earned runs or more in four of his last eight starts and that, too, is a serious warning. Rodriguez is allowing more flyballs than ever and as a result, more balls are leaving the yard too. So, while Rodriguez has good surface stats, there are plenty of warning signs scattered amongst the positives in those pretty surface stats. The Astros have the worst run differential (-141 entering Sunday) in the NL by a lot. Other than the Cubs (about 45 runs better), no NL team's run differential is within 100 runs of Houston. One of the few recognizable names in the Astros lineup is Carlos Lee. But with no protection in the lineup, Lee is in a 2-for-30 slump and now this group will face the blossoming skills of Daniel Hudson. Hudson has quickly ascended to become the club's ace and a big part of the reason they're just a half game out of first place in the NL West. There are few blemishes on Hudson's skill set. Hudson demonstrated solid control in his debut with the D'backs last season and he's only improved on it further this season. He's sacrificed a few Ks for improved control and it's paid off in a stellar command rate that has seen him walk just 34 batters in 154 IP while striking out 120. He’s quietly established himself as one of the most reliable starters in the game and he should dominate this nothing opponent. Play: Arizona –1½ +123 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego –102
The Padres strikeout as a team more than any other in the majors so when they’re facing a guy with a solid strikeout rate they’re usually not playable but that’s not the case here. Mike Pelfrey strikes out about one batter every two innings and rarely does he have a 1-2-3 inning. He has a BAA of .269 and an average WHIP of 1.36. About half his starts are considered to be of the quality variety and therefore the guy is beatable almost every time he takes the mound. Want further proof that he’s beatable? How about six wins in 23 starts. The Padres create offense by stealing bases and steal them they do. They’ll hit and run, they’ll steal anytime and against a non-strikeout pitcher like Pelfrey, they can do a lot of damage on the base-paths. The Padres are also warm at the moment with four wins in a row and five wins in seven games. Over that span, one of their losses was to Clayton Kershaw but when facing three average pitchers in Pittsburgh over the weekend they exploded with 35 runs in three games. Tim Stauffer is a much better pitcher than Mike Pelfrey. He went 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA in 82 IP for the Padres last season and has enjoyed almost as much success this year. His 2.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 3.25 xERA confirm it has been no fluke. With great command and an elite 54% groundball rate, Tim Stauffer has nothing but starting pitching upside. We also like the fact that the books made the Mets a very enticing tiny favorite here. Play: San Diego –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).Comment
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SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona –1½ +123
The D-Backs snapped a mini three-game losing streak in style yesterday by beating one of the best in Clayton Kershaw. That’s a good win because Kershaw seldom loses and it really instills a positive state of mind heading into this series against the dreadful Astros and Wandy Rodriguez. At the age of 32, Rodriguez has spent time on the DL this season with elbow issues. He’s put up some very decent numbers that include 109 k’s in 127 frames with just 41 walks. He’s also posted a solid 3.69 ERA and an acceptable 1.30 WHIP. However, there are some warning signs. First, Rodriguez's velocity is down over the last three years (90.1 mph, 89.6 mph, 88.8 mph) so this deserves continued observation especially in light of the recent elbow issues. Also note that since his return from the DL, Rodriguez’s strikeout rate is way down. In fact, just once since his return has he struck out more than three batters in a game. He’s also surrendered five earned runs or more in four of his last eight starts and that, too, is a serious warning. Rodriguez is allowing more flyballs than ever and as a result, more balls are leaving the yard too. So, while Rodriguez has good surface stats, there are plenty of warning signs scattered amongst the positives in those pretty surface stats. The Astros have the worst run differential (-141 entering Sunday) in the NL by a lot. Other than the Cubs (about 45 runs better), no NL team's run differential is within 100 runs of Houston. One of the few recognizable names in the Astros lineup is Carlos Lee. But with no protection in the lineup, Lee is in a 2-for-30 slump and now this group will face the blossoming skills of Daniel Hudson. Hudson has quickly ascended to become the club's ace and a big part of the reason they're just a half game out of first place in the NL West. There are few blemishes on Hudson's skill set. Hudson demonstrated solid control in his debut with the D'backs last season and he's only improved on it further this season. He's sacrificed a few Ks for improved control and it's paid off in a stellar command rate that has seen him walk just 34 batters in 154 IP while striking out 120. He’s quietly established himself as one of the most reliable starters in the game and he should dominate this nothing opponent. Play: Arizona –1½ +123 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego –102
The Padres strikeout as a team more than any other in the majors so when they’re facing a guy with a solid strikeout rate they’re usually not playable but that’s not the case here. Mike Pelfrey strikes out about one batter every two innings and rarely does he have a 1-2-3 inning. He has a BAA of .269 and an average WHIP of 1.36. About half his starts are considered to be of the quality variety and therefore the guy is beatable almost every time he takes the mound. Want further proof that he’s beatable? How about six wins in 23 starts. The Padres create offense by stealing bases and steal them they do. They’ll hit and run, they’ll steal anytime and against a non-strikeout pitcher like Pelfrey, they can do a lot of damage on the base-paths. The Padres are also warm at the moment with four wins in a row and five wins in seven games. Over that span, one of their losses was to Clayton Kershaw but when facing three average pitchers in Pittsburgh over the weekend they exploded with 35 runs in three games. Tim Stauffer is a much better pitcher than Mike Pelfrey. He went 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA in 82 IP for the Padres last season and has enjoyed almost as much success this year. His 2.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 3.25 xERA confirm it has been no fluke. With great command and an elite 54% groundball rate, Tim Stauffer has nothing but starting pitching upside. We also like the fact that the books made the Mets a very enticing tiny favorite here. Play: San Diego –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).Comment
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WUNDERDOG
MLB 20-11 last 31 picks +$1720
1 OF 7
Game: Philadelphia at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5 runs -125 (runline)
The Phillies' pitching has spoken for itself as they held the Giants to 6 runs in their four-game series and despite that, they managed to lose a game. The bottom line is if you're going to beat this team, you had better bring an ace to the hill, and the Dodgers have that answer in Huroki Kuroda. Kuroda comes in with a 2.96 ERA and far away from Roy Halladay in name, but very close to Halladay's 2.55 ERA on the season. Finding bad numbers on Halladay isn't easy, but the Dodgers are 8-2 at home in their last 10 vs. a right-hander, certainly puts their lineup in a competitive spot vs. Halladay, especially when taking them on the +1.5 runline. The blue and white have also gone 9-4 in their last 13 at home. Before you dismiss their chances here, consider that the Dodgers have beaten Lincecum twice, Weaver, Carpenter, Hudson, Jurrgens, Cueto, Oswalt, Jimenez and Stauffer this season, not a bad All-Star lineup of pitchers. Play the Dodgers on the runline here.Comment
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MLBPredictions
Kevin
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets – PADRES TO WIN (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 3.15 units to win 3 units)
The Mets not only lost in tough fashion Sunday, they also lost two players to injury, including their offensive spark plug Jose Reyes. Reyes who is batting .336 tweaked his hamstring, while Daniel Murphy who is batting .320 injured his knee in the 6-5 loss to the Braves Murphy is expected to be out for the season, while Reyes is doubtful for tonight’s game (and most likely this entire series with the Padres). Runs are going to be tougher to come by right now for the Mets, and the Padres, who have won 4 straight, look to take advantage of that. The Padres send Tim Stauffer to the mound tonight. Stauffer is 7-8 on the season with a 2.96 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Batters are hitting .258 against Stauffer on the season. Over his last 11 starts Stauffer has posted a solid 1.97 ERA. On the rubber for the Mets is MIke Pelfrey, who is 6-9 on the season with a 4.48 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Batters are hitting .269 against Pelfrey. He is 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA in five starts against San Diego. For whatever reason, the Padres play a lot better on the road this season. They are .500 (28-28) on the road, and average 4.46 runs per game away from home (almost a full run higher than their average runs scored at home per game). New York is just 23-30 at home this year. Note that the Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs a team with a losing record, 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs a right handed starter, and 5-2 in Stauffer’s last 7 starts following a quality start in his last outing. The Mets are just 7-16 in their last 23 games as a home underdog, 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs a team with a losing record, and 1-5 in their last 6 home games overall. New York has dropped 6 of their last 7 games overall. Note that the Mets are just 1-4 in Pelfrey’s last 5 starts as a home underdog, 7-21 in his last 28 starts as an underdog, and 0-4 in his last 4 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The Padres have won 15 of these two teams last 22 meetings. The Mets are coming off an emotional loss, which included the loss of two important offensive pieces to the team. I fully expect the Padres to be able to continue to roll here as they head into New York with some new found confidence and are behind Stauffer who has pitched exceptional over his last 11 starts. Despite an injury of their own, I like the Padres chances at getting this done in the first game of this series. Take the value here laying just -105 on the Padres.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers – DODGERS +1.5 (-115)
(Note: I’m risking 2.30 units to win 2 units)
For my second play here today I am adding the DODGERS on the run line, getting 1.5 runs at home vs the Phillies. Doc Halladay is on the mound for the Phillies, and is 14-4 with a 2.5 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and .242 opponents batting average. Very impressive numbers from Halladay like you can expect, but Dodgers pitcher Hiroki Kuroda isn’t far behind in most categories (except for the win-loss record). Kuroda is 7-13 on the year with a 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .247 opponents batting average. What really impressed me is that Kuroda is 2-1 with a stellar 0.84 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies. Also note that Kuroda has a 2.38 ERA over his last 11 starts. Note that the Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series, 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss, 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs a right handed starter, and a solid 9-4 in their last 13 home games overall. Los Angeles is 4-0 in Kuroda’s last 4 home starts vs the Phillies. With a run total set at 6 I was very surprised to see we were able to get the Dodgers with a run and a half at -115. The Dodgers have been scoring a lot more runs since their new hitting coach has taken over, and Kuroda has been very solid on the mound as of late. Take the Dodgers here at home on the run line against Halladay and the Phillies.Comment
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DAVID MALINSKY
4* SAN DIEGO PADRES -105
Change one letter in “Mets” and you have “Mess”. That is the sad state of their infield right now, a group that will be without Daniel Murphy for the rest of the season, and Jose Reyes indefinitely, and it leaves some potentially atrocious defensive combinations. They used four different players at 2B and three different SS’s in yesterday’s game alone, as Terry Collins scrambled to find answers. And given that this is a vulnerable setting for Mike Pelfrey, it is a weak overall package that we can play into.
Pelfrey is priced fairly here off of the appearance of decent current form, but some of that comes at a cost – he was stretched out to 119 pitches in his last outing vs. Florida, and in his career it has been a weak 4-8/5.97 after throwing 115 pitches or more. He only has 74 K’s in 138.2 IP for the full season, and in seven of his last eight starts it has been three K’s or less, so a guy pitching to contact fully puts that weakened defense into play. And having already allowed a hideous count of 18 stolen bases vs. only two runners caught stealing, a Padre offense that leads the Major’s in steals can have their way. It is “hit-and-run” time from the get-go.
Meanwhile Tim Stauffer is having one of the most under-appreciated seasons of any starter in the game. A 2.96 ERA, with 104 K’s vs. 39 W’s, only eight HR’s allowed over 143 IP, and a sparkling 2.98 ground-out ratio would have you on the periphery of Cy Young contention with better offensive support. But because he toils for the Padres it has only meant seven wins, which keeps him far beneath the radar screens. He has allowed two runs or less in nine of this last 11 outings, including four zero’s in that span, and because the working margins were so strong in Pittsburgh over the weekend, the bullpen is well-set for the latter stages.Comment
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