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David Banks
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Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
The AL East leading Boston Red Sox commence their six-game road trip with a stop in the Pacific Northwest to battle the Seattle Mariners on Friday night. First pitch from Safeco Field is scheduled for 10:10 ET.
Though the BoSox had their four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday night in Minnesota, manager Terry Francona’s squad is still the toast of the American League. At 72-44 for the year, the Red Sox have earned their wagering supporters $726 to date with a whopping $904 of their overall profit coming when away from Fenway Park (35-22). The key to battling the Yankees step for step after getting off to such a horrendous start has been the team’s ability to avoid multiple game losing streaks, as Boston’s only dropped back-to-back games six times since May 10th.
If only the Mariners can go back in time and redo the stretch from July 6th to July 26th. After beating the A’s 4-2 in the second game of the series on July 5th, Seattle was a .500 ballclub at 43-43 and sat just 2.5-games in back of both the Angels and Rangers in the AL West. They then went on to lose 17 games in a row and now find themselves in the gutter of the division 15-games off the pace. They’re 5-4 and up $298 in August, but Ichiro and company have only managed a 27-28 home record (-$248).
This will be the first time these teams will have met on the left coast this season. Boston secured wins in four of the teams six earlier meetings in Beantown; the ‘under’ went 3-2-1. It’s been all about pitching and defense when these teams collide as the low side of the ‘total’ has cashed for MLB bettors at a 20-8-3 clip in the L/31 overall meetings. John Lackey is 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA & .280 BAA in 29 career starts vs. the Mariners, and Boston’s 5-1 in his L/6 trips to the bump. Blake Beavan tamed the Red Sox’ potent bats in his July 23rd start vs. them allowing nine hits but only three ERs with 4 Ks and no walks through 6.2 innings. Seattle’s 2-10 its L/12 vs. the AL East and a pathetic 1-8 its L/9 series openers.
PICK: Boston/Seattle UNDER
Play New York Yankees (-170) over Tampa Bay (Top Play of the Day) Starts at 7:00 PM EST
CC Sabathia has won 19 of the last 26 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has also won 31 of the last 42 home games as a favorite of -150 or higher. CC Sabathia has won 6 of the last 7 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he is 7-2 in home games this season with an ERA of 2.89.
Play Philadelphia (-280) over Washington (Top Play of the Day) Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Livan Hernandez has lost 11 of the last 12 road games and he has also lost 6 consecutive games as an underdog of +150 or higher. Livan Hernandez is 1-2 over the last three overall starts with an ERA of 7.90.
Play Cleveland (-165) over Minnesota (Bonus)
Canadian Football Friday
50* Play Calgary (-4) over Saskatchewan Starts at 9:30 PM EST
Calgaryhas won 4 of the last 5 games and they have also won 16 of the last 21 games coming off a home game. Calgary has won 17 of the last 24 games with six or less days of rest and they are only allowing an average of 20 points a game on defense over the last three games.
WUNDERDOG
MLB 28-21 last 49 picks +$1420
1 OF 6 Game: Texas at Oakland (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Oakland +1.5 runs -145 (runline)
The Texas Rangers have not been playing good baseball. They show a losing record on the road for the season and overall are just 10-11 in their last 21 games, with three of the 10 wins coming by a single run. Oakland had been losing consistently on the road, but came away with four wins in their last five on their most recent trip. They come home confident, where they are seven games above .500 at home. Brandon McCarthy has pitched the A's to five straight wins, allowing just 4 runs in his last three starts. CJ Wilson owns a 25-13 mark over the last two seasons, but the Rangers have dropped his last four starts. The edge in this one goes to Oakland on the runline.
One thing about the preseason that is an absolute is that the games mean jack and that 99% of the teams in this league will not be the same in exhibition as they will once the regular season kicks off. The Redskins are a prime example of that, as they are going to be one of the worst teams during the regular season but that freak Mike Shanahan will approach these games like a playoff spot is on the line. Shanahan hates to lose in preseason as much as he hates to lose anytime. He’s been strategizing for this game for months so he can prove what a good coach he is. Sports radio and TV have made the Redskins the butt of jokes this year and the whole team is aware of it. They’re being humiliated even before the season starts and Shanahan isn’t about to be the target of all sports media types. The Skins will come to play. Meanwhile, the Steelers couldn’t give a rat’s ass about this game or any other preseason game for that matter. Once the season begins the Steelers will once again be the Steelers. They’ll play a methodical in the trenches game and they’ll battle hard for 60 minutes every week and have another winning year. That’s Steeler football. Preseason is all about getting fit and correcting the little things that make a difference. Mike Shanahan will use all his challenges, all his timeouts and everything else in order to win. He has the best preseason record among active coaches and it’s not even close. Mike Shanahan is old school who thinks he’s superior to everyone else and that’s why he wins preseason football games. Play: Washington –1½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
SASKATCHEWAN +3½ over Calgary Pinnacle
Calgary is on a roll with four wins in five games, topped off by its widest margin of victory last week against the Ticats. They’re peaking right now. Meanwhile, SASK has hit bottom and can’t sink much lower. The then winless Lions whacked them last week and they’re now 0-3 at home and 1-5 overall. The biggest advantage the Riders have had over the years is home field and even when they were atrocious this venue was always a tough place to win at. Are they atrocious this year? Certainly the Roughies are not as good as they’ve been in the past four years but they’re also not as bad as their record indicates. You know for sure they’re going to give it everything they have here. Darian Durant is just as capable as Henry Burris is of giving a strong performance. Nothing has gone right for the Riders. They’re turning it over, they’re dropping what should be easy completions and they’ve had more untimely penalties than any team in the league. The good news is that the defense has stepped it up over the past three games and if the offense can find some rhythm then the host has a very good shot. Calgary is good and is probably the team to beat in the West and perhaps the whole league. However, we also know that their stock is soaring while the Riders is sinking and that always sets up an overlay on the chalk. Riderville is close to breaking out and this could surely be the day. Play Saskatchewan +3½ (No bets).
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