8-15-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

Jets at Texans: What Bettors Need to Know

New York Jets at Houston Texans (-2.5, 34.5)

THE LINE

The Texans are holding steady as 2.5-point favorites and the total has dropped a half point since the open. About 57 percent of Covers.com Consensus bettors are supporting the Jets.

NEW YORK JETS

Monday night was supposed to be Plaxico Burress’ big night as he returned to action for the first time since 2008 but a sprained ankle will put that on hold.
Burress won’t even travel with the team to Houston after Friday’s MRI revealed a “classic sprain.”

"I know the difference between pain and soreness," he said. "This is just soreness. This is just a minor sprain. And if I remember correctly, the last time I tweaked an ankle in training camp, I won a Super Bowl."

Meanwhile, the Jets will also be without Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold who picked up a stinger on Thursday and right guard Brandon Moore (hip) will also sit. Backup quarterback Mark Brunell is doubtful after injuring his finger during Saturday’s practice.

That means that rookie quarterback Greg McElroy will be taking most of the Jets' snaps.

Head coach Rex Ryan was steamed after Friday’s sloppy workout that featured seven false starts, three interceptions and a pile of dropped passes.

Ryan says he won’t play his starters more than a quarter Monday.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Head coach Gary Kubiak says his starters will play just 10-12 snaps before giving way to the backups, which seems like a good idea considering the team’s past and present injury concerns.

Reigning rushing champion Arian Foster will be kept on the bench as he’s nursing a hamstring injury, as will Ben Tate and Steve Slaton. Derrick Ward and Chris Ogbonnaya will take the bulk of the carries.

After Matt Schaub gets a few snaps in, Houston will look to Matt Leinart to run the offense for the majority of the game. The club wants to get him in some live game action as he works to get comfortable with the offense.

Wide Receiver Andre Johnson is currently listed as questionable with his dislocated finger. Kubiak will have the final say about his status, though Johnson did practice without a splint late last week.

Don’t expect to see much from the defense either.

"Defensively, I think Wade is very basic in what we're fixing to go do Monday night," Kubiak told reporters. "We just want to see guys play, make sure they're in the right spot. We've come a long way here in the first two weeks and we've got a grasp of the base stuff. That's what we're looking for."

THINGS TO REMEMBER

The Jets are trying to get a better run-pass balance to their offense this season. Last year they ran the ball 63 percent of the time in first-down situations. The Texans were 1-3 against the spread in preseason play last season, playing over the total three times.

[Mr. IWS]

Jets at Texans: What Bettors Need to Know

New York Jets at Houston Texans (-2.5, 34.5)

THE LINE

The Texans are holding steady as 2.5-point favorites and the total has dropped a half point since the open. About 57 percent of Covers.com Consensus bettors are supporting the Jets.

NEW YORK JETS

Monday night was supposed to be Plaxico Burress’ big night as he returned to action for the first time since 2008 but a sprained ankle will put that on hold.
Burress won’t even travel with the team to Houston after Friday’s MRI revealed a “classic sprain.”

"I know the difference between pain and soreness," he said. "This is just soreness. This is just a minor sprain. And if I remember correctly, the last time I tweaked an ankle in training camp, I won a Super Bowl."

Meanwhile, the Jets will also be without Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold who picked up a stinger on Thursday and right guard Brandon Moore (hip) will also sit. Backup quarterback Mark Brunell is doubtful after injuring his finger during Saturday’s practice.

That means that rookie quarterback Greg McElroy will be taking most of the Jets' snaps.

Head coach Rex Ryan was steamed after Friday’s sloppy workout that featured seven false starts, three interceptions and a pile of dropped passes.

Ryan says he won’t play his starters more than a quarter Monday.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Head coach Gary Kubiak says his starters will play just 10-12 snaps before giving way to the backups, which seems like a good idea considering the team’s past and present injury concerns.

Reigning rushing champion Arian Foster will be kept on the bench as he’s nursing a hamstring injury, as will Ben Tate and Steve Slaton. Derrick Ward and Chris Ogbonnaya will take the bulk of the carries.

After Matt Schaub gets a few snaps in, Houston will look to Matt Leinart to run the offense for the majority of the game. The club wants to get him in some live game action as he works to get comfortable with the offense.

Wide Receiver Andre Johnson is currently listed as questionable with his dislocated finger. Kubiak will have the final say about his status, though Johnson did practice without a splint late last week.

Don’t expect to see much from the defense either.

"Defensively, I think Wade is very basic in what we're fixing to go do Monday night," Kubiak told reporters. "We just want to see guys play, make sure they're in the right spot. We've come a long way here in the first two weeks and we've got a grasp of the base stuff. That's what we're looking for."

THINGS TO REMEMBER

The Jets are trying to get a better run-pass balance to their offense this season. Last year they ran the ball 63 percent of the time in first-down situations. The Texans were 1-3 against the spread in preseason play last season, playing over the total three times.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Monday's Best NFL Bets

New York Jets at Houston Texans (-2.5, 34.5)

Monday Night Football picks head to Reliant Stadium this week for a big time clash between two of the promising teams in this year’s AFC playoff race, the Houston Texans and the New York Jets.

Things are going to be interesting this year for the New York offense, knowing that there are a ton of changes that need to be made for this team to succeed. Gone are WRs Jerricho Cotchery, Braylon Edwards, and Brad Smith, and in are WRs Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason. These two are both fantastic veterans, but Mason’s best days are clearly behind him, and Burress hasn’t stepped on a football field in almost two years. It will be interesting to see how QB Mark Sanchez reacts to all of the changes in the lineup. Veteran QB Mark Brunell will probably see some action, but not a ton, whereas Head Coach Rex Ryan will want to see what QBs Drew Willy and Greg McElroy really have to offer. We also tend to believe that we will see a heck of a lot out of RBs Joe McKnight and Bilal Powell on Monday, and we wouldn’t be surprised if both of these players put up some impressive numbers behind a rather deep offensive line. The Jets played some low scoring games last year in the preseason, putting up a total of just 124 points in their four preseason games, going 2-2 to show for it both SU and ATS.

Houston really tends to play out its preseason games in search of victories, and we think that this year will be no exception. The defense should see a little bit extra time on the field in the new 3-4 formation, especially knowing how many new pieces to the puzzle are really out there. LBs Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans didn’t spend a lot of time on the field together last year thanks to injuries to them both, and newcomers in the secondary, Danieal Manning and Johnathan Joseph are also going to take some time to get used to their new roles. LB Mario Williams is going to have to get used to his new role as a rusher off of the corner instead of from a down stance, and the rest of the crew up front is going to have to figure out their 3-4 responsibilities instead of their 4-3 ones. The offense will look awfully familiar to the one from a year ago. We don’t think that we’ll see all that much out of RB Arian Foster, knowing that Derrick Ward, Ben Tate, and Steve Slaton are all vying for carries as well. It will be interesting to see how rookie QB TJ Yates does in his first professional action this week as well.

New York Jets @ Houston Texans Pick: The Texans are going to try their best to win this one, and we tend to think it’s a little bit of an insult that we can get them as less than a field goal favorites. The Jets are just going to tinker around with things to see what works briefly with the starters before going to backups, while Houston, especially defensively, should see more out of its starters.

PICK: Houston -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Preview
By: Michael Robinson


San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves (-155, 7)

The San Francisco Giants didn’t expect to be thinking about the NL wild-card race, but that’s exactly what’s happening as they start a 4-game series Monday night at the Atlanta Braves.

ESPN2 will have the national broadcast from Turner Field at 4:00 p.m. (PT). The pitching matchup is young Madison Bumgarner for the visitors opposite veteran Tim Hudson.

The Giants (65-55) split the first two games of their weekend series at Florida, with Sunday’s game still pending. They’re 4-11 in their last 15 and can blame the offense. The lineup is averaging 2.27 runs per game over that span, scoring four total runs on Friday and Saturday.

San Francisco trails surprising Arizona (winners of five straight) by two games in the NL West, and is five back of Atlanta for the wild card.

The Giants have the second-best ERA in baseball (3.16), with Bumgarner (3.53 ERA) slightly above. He’s pitched much better than his 7-11 record indicates, including seven shutout innings (four hits) at home against Pittsburgh last Tuesday (6-0 win). The 22-year-old lefty has overcome an early sophomore slump to have 17 quality starts in his last 20 outings. He has a solid 8.30 strikeout rate for the year and an OPS allowed of just .676.

Bumgarner did struggle in his last road start, July 30 at Cincinnati. He surrendered seven runs (five earned) over four innings in the 7-2 defeat. His road ERA (3.06) for the year is better than at home (3.94).

This is Bumgarner’s second start versus the Braves this year. He only lasted 2 2/3 innings at home against them (four runs, three earned) while still struggling in April. His one career start at Turner Field was in last year’s NLDS, getting the win in a 3-2 victory after allowing two runs over six innings.

The Braves (70-50) would lead any other NL division, but trail elite Philadelphia by 8.5 games in the NL East standings. They did struggle after the All-Star break at 9-10, but are 7-2 in their last nine pending Sunday, looking solid for the wild-card with the 5-game cushion.

The ‘over’ is 9-2 for Atlanta in August, with team scoring (5.55 runs per game) increasing along with ERA (4.85). Dan Uggla’s 33-game hitting streak has been the big news.

Hudson (12-7, 3.18 ERA) is 14 years older than Bumgarner at age 36, but has a lot left in the tank. He’s also been hot of late with a 7-1 record (2.08 ERA) in his last 10 starts. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in his last five.

The right-hander has been solid all year at Turner Field (2.71 ERA), although Atlanta has won just eight of his 14 starts. The team won 13 of his 18 regular season home starts (2.48 ERA) last season.

Hudson faced the Giants in April, surrendering two runs over 8 2/3 innings in a 5-2 road win. He had a great ERA (.81) in three starts against them last year, including one unearned over seven innings at home in the NLDS. Atlanta still lost 3-2.

The Giants are just 3-13 in their last 16 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Hudson’s is 1.09. The Giants have also started slowly lately, going 0-7 in opening games of a series.

The Braves swept the first series against San Fran out West in May. This is the first home series since the NLDS and the ‘under’ is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Atlanta.

Carlos Beltran (wrist) was doubtful Sunday after missing five games. He’s struggled since coming from the Mets (.617 OPS) after expecting to be an offensive catalyst. Atlanta catcher Brian McCann (oblique) was expected back Sunday after missing 16 contests.

Weather should be clear and around 80 degrees. Tuesday’s pitching matchup is Tommy Hanson versus Jonathan Sanchez.

[Mr. IWS]

Monday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Randy Wolf, Milwaukee Brewers (9-8, 3.48 ERA)

Wolf has won his last three starts, giving up just five combined runs over that span. He threw eight strong innings in a 5-1 win over the Cardinals last week, allowing a single run on five hits.

Wolf threw just 82 pitches and struck out only one batter.

"He had everything working," manager Ron Roenicke said of him after the win. "He got a lot stronger as the game went along, his command got better.”

Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves (12-7, 3.18 ERA)

Hudson has also won three in a row and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in an outing since way back on June 5. He’s really helping out the bullpen too, going at least seven innings in seven straight starts.

Hudson has walked only 38 batters in 155 2/3 innings this year.

SLUMPING

Gio Gonzalez, Oakland Athletics (9-10, 3.25 ERA)

It’s been a tough month for Gonzalez. He has lost four straight starts, giving up 20 runs over the slump, which has bumped his ERA up about a run.

It looked as though he was on the right track in holding the Blue Jays to one run over five frames in his last start, but then got the hook after a five-run sixth inning.

James McDonald, Pittsburgh Pirates (7-6, 4.24 ERA)

The Pirates have dropped each of McDonald’s last three trips to the hill as he has had some major problems with the long ball. The 6-foot-4 righty has served up seven dingers over the last three outings.

McDonald held the Cardinals to four hits over six innings last week, but also gave up a pair of homers in a 6-0 loss.

“It seems like when he makes a mistake he pays for it,” manager Clint Hurdle told reporters. “His stuff has gotten better as the season goes along, it's just a matter of execution."

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Monday’s Best MLB Bets

San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves (-155, 7)

The Giants have faced a lot of adversity this season and now there are some major concerns about closer Brian Wilson.

The Giants, who had dropped 11 of their last 15 games heading into Sunday’s series finale against Florida, didn’t have Wilson available for that contest. Reports indicate he’s suffering from back problems again after starting the season on the DL with the same problem.

The team isn’t saying much about the injury, but it’s just about the last thing the club needs at this point. Carlos Beltran missed his sixth straight contest Sunday and may need another cortisone shot in his strained right hand.

The Braves won’t let up on the Giants here as they try to cut into Philadelphia’s lead in the NL East.

PICK: Braves


Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (-145, 8.5)

It looks like the schedule is just going to drag on for the lifeless Minnesota Twins. The club had dropped eight of its last nine games heading into Sunday’s action and were 12 games behind the first-place Tigers.

Injuries have ripped the Twins apart since April and the club has never really gotten on track.

"We got here with all the expectations of pretty much having everybody back in the lineup, and before we got through our first game, we were down two again," manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters recently. "That's why I've had over a hundred different lineups this year; we've been trying to mix and match and get through all the different injuries we've had.”

The latest guy to hit the shelf was second baseman Alexi Casilla, who will miss at least a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury. The Twins are going to have a tough time in this series. They’ve won just one of their last 13 games against Detroit.

PICK: Tigers

[Mr. IWS]

Monday’s Betting Tips: MLB Away Faves Cashing In

Who’s Hot

MLB: Atlanta is 17-6 in its last 23 home games.

MLB: Chicago is 10-3 in its last 13 overall.

NFL: The Jets have covered in four of their last five meetings with Houston.

Who’s Not

MLB: Florida has won just once over the last nine games.

MLB: Minnesota is 1-10 in its last 11 meetings with Detroit.

NFL: Houston went 2-8 straight up following the club’s Week 7 bye last season, covering just three times over that span.

Key Stat

76.7 – Visiting favorites are cashing in big lately in MLB action. Heading into Sunday’s action, away faves were 23-7 (76.67 percent) over the last seven days.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Andre Johnson, Houston Texans – Johnson is considered questionable for Monday night’s game against the New York Jets. The club’s top wideout has been battling a dislocated finger in camp but was able to practice without a splint late last week.

Game Of The Day

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (+135, 8)

Notable Quotable

"I just have that confidence and belief in myself that I'm going to go out and play at a high level. Then everybody is going to go back to scratching their head again: How does he do it? How did he not practice and do it? He's been away for two years. How does he do it?" – New York Jets wideout Plaxico Burress on an HBO special that airs Tuesday. Burress’ return to the NFL will have to wait a while as he has been ruled out for Monday’s game against the Houston Texans.

Tips And Notes

The Cincinnati Reds’ offense went mental Sunday afternoon, cranking out seven home runs in a 13-1 destruction of the San Deigo Padres. The Reds have an off day, but the Padres are back at it at home against the Mets. San Diego has now played over the total in 21 of its last 29 games overall.

Dan Uggla’s 33-game hitting streak came to an end in Atlanta’s 6-5 loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Uggla hit .377 with 15 homers and 32 RBIs during the streak and moved his batting average from .173 to .232. The Braves dropped two out of three against the Cubs but opened as a -155 favorite against a Giants team that had lost 11 of its last 15 contests.

The Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips At The Glen that was supposed to run Sunday afternoon was postponed due to rain and is now scheduled to start at 10 a.m. ET Monday.Kyle Busch (+700) obliterated the track record Saturday afternoon en route to seizing the pole. Busch posted a fast-lap speed of 126.421 miles per hour for his first pole of the season, and the first of his career on a road course. That speed broke the old record set by Jeff Gordon in 2003 by nearly two mph.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

The Pirates failed to hold on to a late lead yester day in Brewville so Hondo, who connected with the Padres, saw his deficit dip only slightly to 2,095 bahnsens.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch hopes he isn't giving out a bum steer with Bumgarner -- 20 units on the Giants to walk all over Hudson.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Monday

Orioles over 7.5

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

Jets +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

Florida at Colorado

The Rockies look to take advantage of a Florida team that is 1-8 in its last 9 games as an underdog. Colorado is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockies favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, AUGUST 15
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST Game 901-902: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Westbrook) 15.952; Pittsburgh (McDonald) 14.200
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Over Game 903-904: San Francisco at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.369; Atlanta (Hudson) 16.057
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-155); Under Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lopez) 15.559; Houston (Sosa) 13.485
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-120); Over Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Lilly) 16.033; Milwaukee (Wolf) 17.244
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-160); Under Game 909-910: Florida at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Hensley) 12.972; Colorado (Millwood) 14.892
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Under Game 911-912: NY Mets at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Dickey) 15.396; San Diego (Harang) 14.628
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Over Game 913-914: Minnesota at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 14.156; Detroit (Porcello) 14.583
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-145); Over Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.395; Kansas City (Paulino) 14.614
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-155); Under Game 917-918: Baltimore at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hunter) 14.687; Oakland (Gonzalez) 16.014
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-170); Over Game 919-920: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Ogando) 17.114; LA Angels (Richards) 14.855
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150); Under Game 921-922: Toronto at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Alvarez) 15.196; Seattle (Pineda) 15.673
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-145); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Tigers -150 over Twins

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Jets +3 over Texan

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Tigers -150 over Twins