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Free Silver Key Pick for Monday NFL Pre-Season Football
Over 35 Total Points, Chicago at GIANTS
Over 35 Total Points, Chicago at GIANTS
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Sports Wagers
WASHINTON +106 over Arizona Pinnacle
The saying goes, “The cream always rises to the top” and if that’s true than something has to sink. The Pirates were the first to sink and now it’s the D-Backs turn, though to a lesser extent. Arizona has two rock-solid starters in Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy. After that it gets shaky as hell. The offense has been overachieving for 4½ months and now what we’re seeing is the real D-Backs, which is about as mediocre a club as the Pirates or Mets or any other mediocre club. ARI's offense is hitting closer to form now. They had a league-low .193 BA, .259 OBA, .294 SLG and .553 OPS in the seven games before Sunday, when they went 5-for-29 with 10 K's in a shutout loss to the Braves. Justin Upton (.278) and Paul Goldschmidt (.269) are the only regulars batting over .260 for ARI this month and now the pressure heightens. Enter Joe Saunders. Saunders was among the best pitchers in the NL last month, posting a 4-1 record and 2.16 ERA. Saunders's skills (skills refer to (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line/fly ratios (G/L/F) hit%, strand % and expected ERA (xERA) show he's the same pitcher of years past, just luckier. Saunders is walking more hitters this year and striking out fewer. He's benefiting from a high strand rate, meaning the extra walks haven't hurt him as much. Take care not to read too much into Saunders' success. While he's delivering his best season since 2008, it's been heavily influenced by luck. At his core, Saunders is the same innings eater with a poor K rate that he was before. The D-Backs luck has run out and so has Saunders in his last two starts, as he’s allowed five earned runs in both and he’s not likely to do much better here. Play: Washington +106 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO +118 over Atlanta Pinnacle
The Braves activated Jair Jurrjens from the DL and he got the start Wednesday against San Francisco. He had been out since August 2 with a knee strain. Jurrjens began the season with an outstanding 2.07 ERA in the first half and he appears to have been struggling a bit with a 4.03 ERA since July 1. While it's true that Jurrjens has not duplicated his first half ERA, his xERA said that a correction was coming. His second half performance has been precisely in line with expectations. His skills have actually been a tad stronger in the second half, with the only difference being an expected correction in his hr/f rate. Still, it’s hard to overlook that Jurrjens has been whacked in two consecutive starts by both the Nationals and Giants. Getting whacked by that pair is not easy. Jurrjens had one strikeout in each game and that suggests something is not right with him. Chicago boasts the league's top offense in BA, SLG and OPS in August. Ryan Dempster is outpitching Jurrjens by a large margin since the All-Star break. Dempster is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his past three starts and he’s struck out 18 in 20 IP. The Cubbies have won three of his past four starts and seven of his last 10 and there’s no reason he can’t win this one too. Pay very little attention to Dempsters 2-11 career record vs the Braves, as he’s pitched well against them with a xERA of 3.34 and it’s been mostly bad luck. Play: Chicago +118 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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David Banks
5 - 2 last week
Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants
Week 2 of the NFL preseason comes to a close Monday Night from the New Meadowlands in East Rutherford New Jersey where the New York Giants will host the Chicago Bears; ESPN’s Monday Night telecast is scheduled to go at 8:00 ET.
Chicago only lost five games last season en route to winning the NFC North Division. However, one of those defeats came right here in tonight’s venue where they were manhandled by the G-Men en route to falling by a 17-3 final count. Jake Cutler was thrown around like a rag doll before ultimately getting knocked out of the game with a concussion. When the dust cleared, Chicago QBs were thrown to the turf 10 times and the offense accumulated just 110 overall yards. Unfortunately, the same problems the Bears had on the O-Line a year ago reared their ugly head in last week’s 10-3 home win and cover (-2.5) over Buffalo, as the Bills accumulated a whopping nine sacks.
New York hasn’t been the best option to back in the preseason over the course of the last few seasons under the watchful eye of Tom Coughlin. With them falling 20-10 as 2.5 point underdogs last week at Carolina, the Giants now stand 4-5 SU & 3-5-1 ATS since the 2009 exhibition season. Though the team played error free football last week, the defensive effort was sloppy at best as it allowed one of the league’s worst offensive units from a year ago gain nearly 350 yards of combined offense. With them forced to deal with the potent offensive attacks of all their division rivals this season, you can bet your bottom dollar that NY will look to shore up its defensive deficiencies under tonight’s national spotlight.
These teams last met in the preseason back in 2009. The Bears won that game 17-3 as two-point home underdogs and the combined 20 points easily went ‘under’ the closing total of 34.5. Chicago has now played five preseason games in a row without surpassing the 17 point plateau; they’ve averaged a grand total of 11.2 PPG during that stretch. That said; New York has been a miserable home favorite of 3.5 points or more in the preseason managing just a 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS tally since 2003.
PICK: UNDERComment
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FantasySportsGametime
MLB Baseball Monday
Play Colorado (-210) over Houston (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 8:30 PM EST
Houston has lost 20 of the last 24 games as an underdog of +175 to +250 and they have also lost 34 of the last 44 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Houston has lost 6 consecutive games after having won four or five of the last six games and they have also lost 25 of the last 35 games with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over the last ten games.
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Play St. Louis (-185) over Los Angeles Dodgers (Bonus)
Play Detroit (-140) over Tampa Bay (Bonus)Comment
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MLBPredictions
Kevin
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates - BREWERS TO WIN (-112)**GAME #1 @ 5:00 PM EST**
(Note: I am risking 2.24 units to win 2 units)
The Brewers and Pirates are playing a double header today, so please make sure you are betting on Game #1. In the first of the two games we will see Chris Narveson return for the DL. Narveson had stitches on his hand in a little bit of a freak accident, and I don't expect it to affect him like it might a pitcher coming off a shoulder or arm injury. Narveson is 8-6 on the year with a 4.49 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and .263 opponents batting average. Lifetime against the Pirates Narveson is 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA. On the rubber for Pittsburgh in this first game is Jeff Karstens, who is 9-6 on the year with a 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and .255 opponents batting average. Karstens has yet to beat the Brewers in his career, with a 0-4 record and 4.03 ERA in 11 appearances against them. Also note the Pirates are 1-6 in Karsten's' last 7 starts vs the Brewers. The red hot Brewers have won 22 of their last 25 games, and are looking for an amazing 13 straight win over the Pirates. Milwaukee has beaten them 8 times this year, and their 12 game winning streak against Pittsburgh goes back to July 21st. Take note that the Brewers are a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series, 8-1 in their last 9 road games, and 35-17 in their last 52 overall. They are also 49-21 in their last 70 vs right-handed starters, 36-15 in their last 51 vs NL Central teams, and 13-3 in their last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Also note that they are 4-0 in Narveson's last 4 starts, 5-1 in his last 6 road starts, and 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs NL Central opponents. The Pirates who were recently in the hunt for playoffs are now just 8-22 in their last 30 overall, 3-10 in their last 13 home games, and 4-12 in their last 16 games following a loss. Head to head the Brewers are 42-10 in these two teams last 52 meetings, and 8-3 in their last 11 meetings in Pittsburgh. I don't expect the travel from New York to Pittsburgh for a little bit of an early start to affect the Brewers, who are on a tear and coming off a road sweep of the Mets. This is a team that is confident, and is showing no signs of slowing down. Showing up for the ballpark is a lot of fun for the Brewers right now, and I'm not sure we can say the same for the Pirates who have been on the losing end of a lot of games recently. Take the Brewers in Game #1 today of the double header at a generous price.Comment
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WUNDERDOG (MLB)
MLB 50-50 last 100 picks ($620)
1 OF 3
Game: Baltimore at Minnesota (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Baltimore +125 (moneyline)
Zach Britton was pitching much worse than he was capable of, and was finally put on the DL with a shoulder strain. He is heeled and ready to show his upside, while remaining under the radar due to his ugly work before the arm strain was revealed. Carl Pavano, after surprising the Twins with 17 wins a year ago, has managed just six this season, pitching to an ERA almost a full run higher. The Twins have fared just as poorly, even at home, where they are just 2-6 in Pavano's last eight home starts. Pavano lost to the Birds 11-0 back in April, and Baltimore is 12-5 in their last 17 vs. bad teams with a winning percentage from .380 to .460. Back Baltimore in this one.Comment
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