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3 UNIT* ROT (259) St. Louis -1.5 over Kansas City
ANALYSIS : The Kansas City Chiefs return to Arrowhead Stadium to host cross-state rival St. Louis Rams on Friday, in a Governors Cup match up. Kansas City stands 0-2 in the preseason while St. Louis has a 2-0 ledger. The 2010 season marked a turning point for the Chiefs franchise as Head Coach Todd Haleys squad turned in a 10-6 record after a 4-12 performance in 2009. It marked the best single-season turnaround in franchise history. The Chiefs won the AFC West Championship and earned a home playoff game for the first time since 2003. St. Louis ended the 2010 season with a 7-9 mark, staying in playoff contention until the last weekend of the regular season. The Rams played at Seattle in the final game of the season with the winner advancing to the playoffs. Seattle pulled out a 16-6 victory over the Rams to win the NFC West. The Rams are 12-8 in preseason action against the Chiefs. Since the Rams relocation to St. Louis, the two clubs have squared off 11 times in preseason play. The most recent preseason meeting between the two teams resulted in a 17-9 Rams win at the Edward Jones Dome (9/3/09). Kansas City's last preseason win against the Rams was a 21-17 decision at Arrowhead (8/28/08). The Rams hold a 16-14 edge in all games between these two teams. However, recent preseason trends show Haley could care less about exhibition games. Chiefs 1-10 SU, 0-11 ATS. Kansas City is 3-19 ATS against the NFC at home. Especially with Haley's success in the regular season last year, he has absolutely nothing to prove here. Spagnuolo on the other hand is 8-2 SU in the preseason, with a perfect 5-0 ATS road mark. The line open at St. Louis -1, but I can assure you this number will continue to rise before kickoff. We love the Rams in this spot. St. Louis 23 Kansas City 10
Pittsburgh +149 over ST. LOUIS Pinnacle
The Cardinals won last night to snap a losing streak but so what. They’ve still lost seven of its last 10 games and most of the players couldn’t give a damn and they continue to be overvalued almost daily. This is a team that is just going through the motions right now and can’t wait for the season to end. Not even Dave Duncan can turn cat food into caviar, as is the case with Jake Westbrook. Westbrook has issued 56 walks while striking out just 80 in 149 frames. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats and at Busch he’s 3-4 with an ERA of 5.96. At best, Jake Westbrook and the Cards are a 50/50 proposition here and that’s why they Bucs are a solid play taking back almost 7½-5. James McDonald has been trying to live up to his potential since his days as a Dodger prospect, and at times this year he's been brilliant. Even more encouraging is that he's begun to find consistency in the second half of the season. His strikeout rate for 2011 isn't bad and he's picked up his strikeout rate since July. For the season, McDonald's numbers don't wow anyone. But his performance lately has been worth attention. His value going forward depends on the lens through which it's viewed. With the Pirates falling out of the NL Wild Card race and McDonald never having thrown 150 innings as a professional, it's a bit of a gamble to count on the 26-year-old continuing to pitch well in September. Longer-term, though, the future is finally starting to brighten and in no way is he a worse option taking back a tag than Westbrook is laying one. Play: Pittsburgh +149 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels +107 over TEXAS Pinnacle
The Angels won’t go away in this race. They’re just two games back in the AL West standings coming into this series and it was all triggered with that ninth inning walk-off win last weekend against these Rangers to avoid getting swept. A loss in that last game would’ve put the Angels seven back and dampened their sprits completely. Instead, they haven’t lost since and that gives us a chance to back a hot team with a great pitcher going. Even on his own team, Dan Haren can get lost in the shadows of Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana. It's easy to forget that Haren, despite being bounced around a bit from team-to-team in his career, easily has one of the most consistent skill sets of the last six years. He's making his claim for his first sub-3.00 ERA season, and xERA shows that it's within reach. Haren has walked even fewer batters than before, and even though his strikeout rate has slipped slightly, his command remains top-notch. His 0.98 WHIP and hit rates, which never stray far from 30%, affirm that his ERA (2.98) numbers are for real. Haren's year-in, year-out production at the elite level is what really stands out. His career high for wins is 16 in 2008. The fact that he's never approached 20 wins could be holding back his reputation and at 13 wins so far in 2011, it won't happen this season. But know that at 30 years old, Haren's only a year-long dash of good fortune away from Cy Young consideration and in 100 games against Derek Holland, Dan Haren should be favored 100 times. Play: L.A. Angels +107 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay –1 -105 over TORONTO Pinnacle
If you don’t have the option of laying a single run you can lay 30 cents and feel pretty good about it, as James Shields is the straight goods and the Jays can’t hit him. In two starts against Toronto this season, Shields is 2-0 with a 0.55 ERA and it’s also worth noting that the Jays’ .713 OPS in August ranks dead last in the AL. The Rays have won 11-of-15 coming in and are 7-4 against Toronto this season but it even gets better than that. The Jays are 21-24 against right-handers this season at home while the Rays are 24-14 against lefties and will face one here in newcomer Henderson Alvarez. Alvarez is going to be a good one. The guy is poised and he’s talented. Alvarez consistently buries pitches low in the strike zone and keeps walks to a minimum. He sometimes overthrows his fastball, which curtails its movement and leaves him hittable. Due to his natural stuff, he has nice upside, but he likely won't be a dominant presence with a high strikeout rate. Furthermore, his 4.02 ERA in the minors says he’ll go through some growing pains at this level and those growing pains are likely to show up here. Play: Tampa Bay –1 –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
CFL
Hamilton +3½ over WINNIPEG Pinnacle
The Bombers are 6-1 and own the league’s best record and that’s saying something about a team that went 4-14 a year ago and is virtually unchanged. What that tells us is that the Bombers grossly underachieved last year or perhaps they’ve overachieved this season. What we know for sure is that Winnipeg is not much better, if it all than the TiCats. The Blue Bombers defense is superior but the offense is inferior and that makes this assignment tough. The CFL is a QB league and an offensive league and Winnipeg QB Buck Pierce ranks last in the CFL in passing yards. Winnipeg overall is dead last in yards in the air and in this league the defense will only carry you for so long. The Blue Bombers may have been undervalued the first half of the year but as we approach the second half, they’re getting just a little too much credit and this is most certainly a winnable game for the visitor. Play: Hamilton +3½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Jeff Benton
Friday's Action
30 Dime baseball release this Friday night on the visiteng Rays as they open a weekend series agaionst their division-rival Toronto. At the time I releose this winner, the odds have Tampa Bay -140 across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. Note that when placing your action, you must list Shields as the Rays starting pitcher, and Alvarez as the starting pitcher for the Nationals. Both must start, or this play is VOID!
10 Dime winner is to take the over in the Kansas City-Cleveland game with Paulino and Jimenez listed as the starting pitchers. As I release this winner, the total I am seeing both here in Vegas and offshore is right around nine runs. Both listed pitchers must start, or this play is VOID!
25 UNIT AL GOW Tampa Bay Rays -135
10 UNIT Colorado Rockies +115
10 UNIT Cleveland Indians -155
10 UNIT Arizona Diamondbacks -160
5 UNIT 2 TEAM PARLAY Arizona Diamondbacks + Cleveland Indians
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