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Jeff Benton
Wednesday's Action 30 Dime baseball selection goes this Wednesday night and it is a play on the visitoing Angels as they continue their series with the Mariners.
At the time I releose this winner, the odds have Los Angeles -125 across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. Note that when placing your action, you must list Haren and Hernandez as the starting pitchers. Both must start, or this play is VOID!
10 Dime bonus play is the Rays to bounce-back after getting shut out last night in Texas. At the time I release this winner to you, Tampa Bay is +125 across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. Note that when placing your action, you must list Shields and Ogando as the starting pitchers, Both must start, or this play is VOID!
Play San Francisco (-180) over Chicago Cubs (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 3:45 PM EST
Chicago has lost 7 of the last 10 games and they have also lost 21 of the last 27 games as an underdog of +150 or higher. Rodrigo Lopez is 0-4 vs. san Francisco over his career with an ERA of 6.31 and he has an ERA of 6.66 in road games this season.
BOSTON –1½ +110 over N.Y. Yankees Pinnacle Josh Beckett needs no introduction. He’s solid and he and John Lester make up one of the best starting duo’s in the league. New York’s weakness is just as glaring as at it was last year. The Yanks will go into the final month of the year with a rotation of C.C. Sabathia and the Misfits once again and once again they’re doomed come playoff time, as offense rarely carries a team in October. Phil Hughes leads the way for the Misfits. Hughes has a low strikeout rate, a horrible groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 32%/24%/44% and a bordering on disastrous WHIP of 1.53. Hughes’s numbers on the season are still skewed by his three April starts but they’re still below average after that and he failed to make it out of the third inning against Oakland in his last start. This is a guy whose confidence level was fragile to begin with and that shellacking he took against the A’s sure doesn’t help it going into Fenway. The Yanks took the opener last night with C.C. on the hill. However, the Red Sox are still dominating the series this year, winning 10 of 13 and outscoring them 77-51. That domination gets back on track here. Play: Boston –1½ +110 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +128 over TEXAS Pinnacle James Shields is as rock solid as they come. He has 21 pure quality starts in 27 games started. Shields has an ERA of 2.96, a WHIP of 1.05 and he has 192 K’s and just 51 walks in 201 IP. With better run support he could just as easily be close to 20 wins and in the running for the Cy Young against Justin Verlander and C.C. Sabathia; that’s how good he‘s been and anytime a take-back is offered with Shields pitching it has to be considered. This really is uncharted territory for Alexi Ogando in that he pitched 72 innings total (minors and majors) in 2010, and has far exceeded that total already. Ogando has more than doubled that with 151 IP thus far and he may be collapsing under the heavy workload, as he's posted a 6.84 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over his past five starts. Need further proof? His strikeout rate is way down, his groundball rate continues to drop way below the league average and these signs of fatigue should not be ignored. You look up and down the Rays line-up and it’s a mystery as to why they’re not scoring more but they’re capable of doing so and it’s also worth noting that the Rangers have not faced Shields this season. Play: Tampa Bay +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The St. Louis Cardinals are running out of time to catch the Milwaukee Brewers, so they’ll look to make the most of their Game 2 match-up set to go on Wednesday night; first pitch from Miller Park is scheduled for 8:10 ET.
Back in the middle of July, manager Tony LaRussa’s Redbirds were in the catbird seat of the NL Central a half a game in front of the Milwaukee Brewers. Since then, Albert Pujols and his mates have had a heck of a time keeping up with the scorching hot Brew Crew and now find themselves a whopping 10.5-games back entering Tuesday night’s series opener. After getting swept at home by the lowly Dodgers, the Cardinals battled back to take three of four from Pittsburgh to enter the land of cheese on a high note. St. Louis has been one of the more decent investments out there as a visitor going 35-33 ($103) to date.
The Brewers value has seemingly been washed away ever since the team pulled away from the rest of the pack within the division. They, along with the Atlanta Braves, offer up just under a 3:1 return to win the NL pennant and have a 6:1 payoff if they indeed win the October Classic. If only the Brewers could play every game within the comfy confines of their own ballpark, as their 50-16 record is by far the best home mark in the league and the main reason the Brewers are the best bet in all of baseball ($2149).
The home team has won eight of these division rivals 12 overall meetings with Tuesday night’s game yet to be played. Milwaukee holds the 8-4 lead in the 2011 season series and has won seven of the L/8 times these teams went at one another at Miller. Total players have seen the ‘under’ cash at a 6-4-1 clip to date. Though St. Louis is 7-3 in Jake Westbrook’s L/10 road starts, it’s just 1-4 its L/5 versus lefties. As for Milwaukee, it’s a perfect 5-0 in Randy Wolf’s L/5 against NL Central opposition and 16-6 its L/22 at home against +.500 opponents. PICK: ST. LOUIS / MILWAUKEE UNDER
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