9-1-11

[timbob]

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[Chico1856]

Dr. Bob

Strong Opinion
North Texas 24 FLORIDA INTL. (-14.0) 33
04:00 PM Pacific, 01-Sep-11
There’s been a change in attitude at North Texas with the arrival of experienced head coach Dan McCarney and a band of assistant coaches that know what they’re doing. The Mean Green haven’t been so mean in recent years under former coach Todd Dodge, who was plucked out of the high school ranks in order to get his hot shot quarterback son to follow him to Denton. That experiment was a disaster, as Dodge’s offense didn’t work and his assistants weren’t good at teaching fundamentals. McCarney and his staff have come in and changed things at North Texas and the players are excited about those changes. There has been much more emphasis on tackling in practice, which should help a defense that allowed 5.4 yards per rushing play (to teams that would combine to average only 4.5 yprp against an average defense) and gave up 6.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would average only 5.5 yppp) despite allowing just 57.0% completions (they missed too many tackles after the catch). North Texas is still probably going to struggle defensively, but they should be much better with 7 returning starters and better tackling. Florida International has a good offense that I rate at slightly better than average on a national scale, so I expect the Panthers to score a good number of points in this game. However, FIU has a horrible defense that has a particularly tough time defending the run (5.7 yprp allowed last season to teams that would average 4.6 yprp and they were 1.3 yprp worse than average the year before that) and I don’t see how that unit will be able to slow down two time 1st Team All-SBC RB Lance Dunbar, who has run for 2931 yards at an incredible 6.2 ypr with 30 rushing touchdowns the last two seasons for the Mean Green. McCarney did retain last season’s offensive coordinator Mike Canales, whose offense started scoring points the last 5 games of the season in 2010 after he took over as the head coach in place of the fired Dodge. The Mean Green averaged 33.8 points over those 5 games when Canales ran things his way while averaging 6.5 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) and new quarterback Derek Thompson is an upgrade over last year’s injury riddled quarterbacking group that used 4 different signal callers to get through the season. I actually think North Texas will have an equally bad pass attack this season as they had last year (5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average attack) due to the loss of their top two receivers, but Thompson could surprise on the upside and I don’t think the Mean Green will have to throw much with Dunbar breaking off big gains on the ground against a porous FIU run defense. My math model would have only favored FIU by 11 points using last year’s stats and North Texas should be more improved than the Panthers will be. My current ratings favor Florida International by only 7 ½ points and the Panthers haven’t won a home game by more than 7 points since 2008 (1-4 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points the last two years). My only issue is that North Texas coach Dan McCarney’s teams always struggled on the road when he was at Iowa State (10-27 ATS as a road dog of more than 7 points). However, that was a while back and Iowa State wasn’t at the talent level of the rest of the Big 12 during those days. North Texas, meanwhile, is not lacking in talent by Sun Belt Conference standards and McCarney and his staff is certainly a big step up in coaching. I’ll consider North Texas a Strong Opinion at +13 points or more.
Strong Opinion


IDAHO (-6.0) 35 Bowling Green 24
06:00 PM Pacific, 01-Sep-11
Bowling Green went from being 7-6 in coach Dave Clawon’s first season in 2009 to a horrendous 2-10 last season with an inexperienced and young team. The Falcons should be improved on both sides of the ball this season but they’re still a bad team. The Bowling Green offense is led by sophomore quarterback Matt Schilz, who completed 61% of his passes but tended to settle for short completions (9.7 yards per completion) that led to a poor compensated yards per pass play rating (Schilz averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback). Schilz should be much more comfortable in his second season and I expect him to be better in finding receivers open down the field, which should lead to a decent increase in his yards per pass play. The real problem with the offense is a rushing attack that was among the worst in the nation last season, averaging a pathetic 3.2 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team. The Falcons return 4 of 5 starting offensive linemen (not sure if that’s a good thing), but top back Willie Geter is gone and sophomore Jordan Hopgood averaged only 2.2 ypr on 76 runs last season. Bowling Green should be better than their horrible offensive rating from 2010 (1.4 yards per play worse than average), but I still rate the Falcons’ attack at 0.9 yppl worse than average heading into this season. Idaho’s defense wasn’t good last season (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) and that unit should be just as bad this season, but I still rate the Vandals’ bad defense as a bit better than Bowling Green’s offense.

Idaho has a huge advantage when they have the ball, as I expect senior quarterback Brian Reader to improve upon last year’s sub-par passing numbers. The Vandals had an explosive offense in 2009, but experienced quarterback Nathan Enderle struggled last season (5.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB) after being 1.9 yppp better than average the season before. Reader was actually slightly better than Enderle in 2009, averaging 8.7 yppp on 76 pass plays against the starting defenses of the Division 1A teams he faced (I excluded garbage time and games against 1AA teams), which would have allowed 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Reader also got good experience last season, averaging 6.3 yppp on 68 pass plays against 1A teams that would allow just 5.5 yppp to an average QB. Overall, Reader has been 0.7 yppp better than an average quarterback on his 144 meaningful pass plays the last two seasons and I expect him to be 0.3 yppp better than average this season due to a less experienced receiving corps. Unfortunately, Reader will have to do without his most explosive receiver, Justin Veltung, who is listed as doubtful for this game while dealing with turf toe. Veltung averaged 19.9 yards on his 25 catches with 8 touchdowns and will certainly be missed. Another veteran receiver, Preston Davis, is also out for this game so I’ve lowered my passer rating for Idaho from 0.3 yppp better than average to 0.1 yppp worse than average for this game. Idaho’s rushing attack should also rebound a bit after a down season behind a rebuilt offensive line, but I still rate the Vandals’ rush attack at 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than average. Overall, the pass heavy Idaho attack should return to being better than average (I rate that unit at 0.2 yppl better than average) after rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average in 2010. There is some concern about big play WR Justin Veltung missing this game, but numerous receivers have emerged over the last month as pleasant surprises so missing Veltung may not hurt as much as anticipated. Either way, the Vandals should have no trouble moving the ball in this game against a bad Bowling Green defense that was 1.0 yppl worse than average last season (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and which I rate at 0.7 yppl worse than average heading into this season. Bowling Green is likely to be a bit more improved this season than Idaho will be but my math model using last year’s numbers would have favored the Vandals by 16 ½ points in this game and Bowling Green certainly hasn’t made up enough of the difference to justify the relatively low number. I’ll consider Idaho a Strong Opinion at -7 or less.

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB

STRONG OPINION
North Texas 24 FLORIDA INTL. (-14.0) 33
04:00 PM Pacific, 01-Sep-11
There’s been a change in attitude at North Texas with the arrival of experienced head coach Dan McCarney and a band of assistant coaches that know what they’re doing. The Mean Green haven’t been so mean in recent years under former coach Todd Dodge, who was plucked out of the high school ranks in order to get his hot shot quarterback son to follow him to Denton. That experiment was a disaster, as Dodge’s offense didn’t work and his assistants weren’t good at teaching fundamentals. McCarney and his staff have come in and changed things at North Texas and the players are excited about those changes. There has been much more emphasis on tackling in practice, which should help a defense that allowed 5.4 yards per rushing play (to teams that would combine to average only 4.5 yprp against an average defense) and gave up 6.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would average only 5.5 yppp) despite allowing just 57.0% completions (they missed too many tackles after the catch). North Texas is still probably going to struggle defensively, but they should be much better with 7 returning starters and better tackling. Florida International has a good offense that I rate at slightly better than average on a national scale, so I expect the Panthers to score a good number of points in this game. However, FIU has a horrible defense that has a particularly tough time defending the run (5.7 yprp allowed last season to teams that would average 4.6 yprp and they were 1.3 yprp worse than average the year before that) and I don’t see how that unit will be able to slow down two time 1st Team All-SBC RB Lance Dunbar, who has run for 2931 yards at an incredible 6.2 ypr with 30 rushing touchdowns the last two seasons for the Mean Green. McCarney did retain last season’s offensive coordinator Mike Canales, whose offense started scoring points the last 5 games of the season in 2010 after he took over as the head coach in place of the fired Dodge. The Mean Green averaged 33.8 points over those 5 games when Canales ran things his way while averaging 6.5 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) and new quarterback Derek Thompson is an upgrade over last year’s injury riddled quarterbacking group that used 4 different signal callers to get through the season. I actually think North Texas will have an equally bad pass attack this season as they had last year (5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average attack) due to the loss of their top two receivers, but Thompson could surprise on the upside and I don’t think the Mean Green will have to throw much with Dunbar breaking off big gains on the ground against a porous FIU run defense. My math model would have only favored FIU by 11 points using last year’s stats and North Texas should be more improved than the Panthers will be. My current ratings favor Florida International by only 7 ½ points and the Panthers haven’t won a home game by more than 7 points since 2008 (1-4 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points the last two years). My only issue is that North Texas coach Dan McCarney’s teams always struggled on the road when he was at Iowa State (10-27 ATS as a road dog of more than 7 points). However, that was a while back and Iowa State wasn’t at the talent level of the rest of the Big 12 during those days. North Texas, meanwhile, is not lacking in talent by Sun Belt Conference standards and McCarney and his staff is certainly a big step up in coaching. I’ll consider North Texas a Strong Opinion at +13 points or more.

STRONG OPINION
IDAHO (-6.0) 35 Bowling Green 24
06:00 PM Pacific, 01-Sep-11
Bowling Green went from being 7-6 in coach Dave Clawon’s first season in 2009 to a horrendous 2-10 last season with an inexperienced and young team. The Falcons should be improved on both sides of the ball this season but they’re still a bad team. The Bowling Green offense is led by sophomore quarterback Matt Schilz, who completed 61% of his passes but tended to settle for short completions (9.7 yards per completion) that led to a poor compensated yards per pass play rating (Schilz averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback). Schilz should be much more comfortable in his second season and I expect him to be better in finding receivers open down the field, which should lead to a decent increase in his yards per pass play. The real problem with the offense is a rushing attack that was among the worst in the nation last season, averaging a pathetic 3.2 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team. The Falcons return 4 of 5 starting offensive linemen (not sure if that’s a good thing), but top back Willie Geter is gone and sophomore Jordan Hopgood averaged only 2.2 ypr on 76 runs last season. Bowling Green should be better than their horrible offensive rating from 2010 (1.4 yards per play worse than average), but I still rate the Falcons’ attack at 0.9 yppl worse than average heading into this season. Idaho’s defense wasn’t good last season (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) and that unit should be just as bad this season, but I still rate the Vandals’ bad defense as a bit better than Bowling Green’s offense.

Idaho has a huge advantage when they have the ball, as I expect senior quarterback Brian Reader to improve upon last year’s sub-par passing numbers. The Vandals had an explosive offense in 2009, but experienced quarterback Nathan Enderle struggled last season (5.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB) after being 1.9 yppp better than average the season before. Reader was actually slightly better than Enderle in 2009, averaging 8.7 yppp on 76 pass plays against the starting defenses of the Division 1A teams he faced (I excluded garbage time and games against 1AA teams), which would have allowed 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Reader also got good experience last season, averaging 6.3 yppp on 68 pass plays against 1A teams that would allow just 5.5 yppp to an average QB. Overall, Reader has been 0.7 yppp better than an average quarterback on his 144 meaningful pass plays the last two seasons and I expect him to be 0.3 yppp better than average this season due to a less experienced receiving corps. Unfortunately, Reader will have to do without his most explosive receiver, Justin Veltung, who is listed as doubtful for this game while dealing with turf toe. Veltung averaged 19.9 yards on his 25 catches with 8 touchdowns and will certainly be missed. Another veteran receiver, Preston Davis, is also out for this game so I’ve lowered my passer rating for Idaho from 0.3 yppp better than average to 0.1 yppp worse than average for this game. Idaho’s rushing attack should also rebound a bit after a down season behind a rebuilt offensive line, but I still rate the Vandals’ rush attack at 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than average. Overall, the pass heavy Idaho attack should return to being better than average (I rate that unit at 0.2 yppl better than average) after rating at 0.3 yppl worse than average in 2010. There is some concern about big play WR Justin Veltung missing this game, but numerous receivers have emerged over the last month as pleasant surprises so missing Veltung may not hurt as much as anticipated. Either way, the Vandals should have no trouble moving the ball in this game against a bad Bowling Green defense that was 1.0 yppl worse than average last season (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and which I rate at 0.7 yppl worse than average heading into this season. Bowling Green is likely to be a bit more improved this season than Idaho will be but my math model using last year’s numbers would have favored the Vandals by 16 ½ points in this game and Bowling Green certainly hasn’t made up enough of the difference to justify the relatively low number. I’ll consider Idaho a Strong Opinion at -7 or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Lean: Memphis
Lean: UNLV

[Mr. IWS]

BIG AL MCMORDIE

4* Indianapolis Colts

4* Atlanta Falcons

3* Tennessee Titans

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns | CFB Side Thu, 09/01/11 - 7:00 PM ÛÛ
triple-dime bet 139 North Texas 14.5 (-110) BetUS vs 140 Florida Intl Analysis: I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS. Both teams have some issues and both are likely to make a few mistakes in their opening game. Each team has some matchup advantages. While the Golden Panthers do have the advantage of playing at home, I believe this is simply a case of the favorite laying too many points.

This is a big game for the Mean Green. They've got a lot of new excitement about this year's team but they also haven't forgotten that the Golden Panthers embarrassed them, at North Texas, last year. What better way to start this season than by getting some payback.

Note that last year's line was -4.5 and that the line for the 2009 meeting, here at Florida International, was only -3. (FIU won that game by a touchdown.) In fact, all six meetings between these teams have had lines of less than a touchdown.

Even with last year's cover at North Texas, the Golden Panthers are still just 5-7-1 ATS as favoriˆtes the past few seasons. During that time, they're only 3-7 ATS in lined home games. They're also 0-1 ATS as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range.

Meanwhile, North Texas checks in at 3-1 ATS the last four times it was an underdog in the +10.5 to +21 range and 7-5 ATS its last dozen road lined games.

As of this writing, the O/U line is 53.5 or 54. Therefore, its worth mentioning that FIU is just 2-4 ATS (1-5 SU) the last six times it played a home game with an O/U line in the 52.5 to 56 range. That includes an 0-2 ATS mark the past few seasons. On the other hand, North Texas is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times it played a road game with an O/U line in the 52.5 to 56 range, going 9-2 ATS its last 11 in that situation. I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *3

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness | CFB Side Thu, 09/01/11 - 8:00 PM Ý‘
double-dime bet 136 Syracuse -6.0 (-110) Hilton vs 135 Wake Forest

Analysis: My Double-Dime 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Syracuse at 8:00 ET.

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

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