9-2-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

DCI

FBS Non-Conference
MICHIGAN STATE 50, Youngstown State 12
Tcu 48, BAYLOR 20

[Mr. IWS]

DUNKEL


Game 145-146: TCU at Baylor (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 110.693; Baylor 93.405
Dunkel Line: TCU by 17 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: TCU by 6 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-6 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Coll - Pro Sports


FRI 9/02
2* TCU -4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Gold Sheet LTS

Raiders / Seahawks Over 38

[Mr. IWS]

NFL NEWS AND NOTES
NFL Preseason Preview - Oakland (0-3) at Seattle (1-2)
By Scott Garbarini


Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 38)

The NFL closes the lid on its 2011 preseason when the Oakland Raiders and Seattle Seahawks square off Friday at Qwest Field in a matchup of teams that will feature a few familiar faces on one of the opposing sidelines.

This game is the only one on Friday's schedule and will be the last warm-up test before the league officially kicks off its 2011 campaign with a high- profile clash between the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints on Sept. 8.

While both the Raiders and Seahawks will essentially use this contest as a means to evaluate players who are battling to stick on the final roster when final cuts are announced on Saturday, each would also like to head into their regular-season openers with a bit of momentum as well.

That's especially the case on Oakland's part, as the Raiders are in danger of going winless in the preseason for the first time since 1989, when the franchise was then located in Los Angeles.

Oakland was unable to contain Drew Brees and a high-powered New Orleans offense in its most recent defeat, with the Saints amassing a gaudy 514 total yards en route to a 40-20 victory last Sunday at the Coliseum.

On a positive note, starting quarterback Jason Campbell completed a sharp 12- of-17 passes for 150 yards with one touchdown and one interception while participating in the entire first half against the Saints. Rookie running back Taiwan Jones also made a very good first impression in his pro debut, with the speedy fourth-round draft pick ripping off a 22-yard touchdown run in the third quarter and finishing with 81 yards on 13 carries.

Jones, who sat out Oakland's first two preseason tilts with a hamstring injury, figures to get more work in Friday's clash, which could also mark the first pro action of Raiders quarterback Terrelle Pryor.

Pryor, taken by Oakland in the third round of the Aug. 22 supplemental draft, began practicing with his new team last week. This game will be the only opportunity for the Raiders to get a look at the former Ohio State standout for a while, as Pryor is to serve a five-game suspension to begin the regular season for receiving improper benefits while a collegian.

Campbell may not play at all on Friday, which would allow new head coach Hue Jackson a chance to judge quarterbacks Kyle Boller and Trent Edwards, two veterans competing for the No. 2 spot on the depth chart. Boller may have pulled ahead in the race after hitting on 5-of-7 throws for 69 yards in spot duty versus New Orleans.

Jackson's first real game in charge will take place on Sept. 12, when the Raiders travel to Denver for a Monday night showdown with the Broncos.

His predecessor, meanwhile, will be attempting to help the Seahawks to victory on Friday. Tom Cable, who was fired and replaced by Jackson in January after two-plus seasons as Oakland's sideline boss, is currently serving as Seattle's offensive line coach under Pete Carroll.

Cable helped bring two of his former players to the Emerald City during the offseason, with the Seahawks signing tight end Zach Miller and left guard Robert Gallery just prior to camp. Miller led the Raiders with 60 catches and 685 receiving yards in 2010, while Gallery had spent his entire seven-year career with Oakland after being taken by the Silver and Black with the second overall pick of the 2004 draft.

Miller will be counted on heavily in Seattle's new-look offense, especially with tight end John Carlson out for the rest of the season due to a torn labrum in his shoulder.

The Seahawks are also dealing with injuries to wide receivers Sidney Rice (shoulder), Mike Williams (toe) and Ben Obomanu (head), as well as running back Marshawn Lynch (ankle) and offensive tackle Russell Okung (ankle). Carroll is confident that they'll all be ready to go when Seattle visits San Francisco for its Sept. 11 regular-season opener, however.

Starting quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is healthy and will likely see some playing time in Friday's finale. The offseason pickup hasn't had a particularly good preseason, having completed 27-of-48 passes (56.3 percent) for just 181 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He's also been sacked seven times behind Seattle's troublesome offensive line.

Jackson lasted into the fourth quarter of last week's game at Denver, but managed only 93 yards and a touchdown on 13-of-22 passing while taking five sacks in the Seahawks' 23-20 loss to the Broncos.

Seattle has won six of its nine previous preseason bouts with Oakland, though Cable's Raiders came through with a 27-24 home decision in last year's finale. Oakland also piled up 545 total yards on the Seahawks in a 33-3 rout at the Coliseum during Week 8 of the 2010 regular season.

[Mr. IWS]

Friday's Best NFL Bet

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 38)

Two surprise teams from a year ago complete their preseason schedules in Seattle as the Oakland Raiders invade Qwest field looking for a confidence booster after getting drubbed by the Saints in Week 3. The Raiders actually played quite well for the first half of the game at least offensively but it was all for not as the Superbowl contending Saints put it into high gear in the second half and dismantled the Silver and Black by a 40-20 mark. The Seahawks meanwhile are coming off a 23-20 loss that saw their 17-point 4th quarter rally come up just short in Denver dropping the Seahawks to 1-2 in the preseason.

The Oakland Raiders were one of the league's bigger surprises last year as they finally shedded an ugly label of futility and moved into respectability with their 8-8 and unblemished 6-0 record in their division. However, Oakland's tendency to play down to their opponent was their ultimate demise once again as they fell short of the playoffs and entered an offseason filled with illogical signings and more bade decision making. The loss of Nnamdi Asomugha is massive for the Raiders secondary as was evident in their loss to the Saints last week as Drew Brees picked apart the right side of the field once occupied by Asmougha. Furthermore, the Raiders have a number of questions on the offensive line as Robert Gallery will be across the line on Seattle this season leaving a lot of question marks in the Raiders run game. However, the Raiders were able to hang in against one of the better teams in the NFL for the first half meaning their starters have the ability to compete and against a Seattle defense that has lost some key players they could hold their own on the West coast.

Seattle as mentioned is coming off a loss to the Denver Broncos but they only showed up for 15 minutes as they were abysmal in the first three quarters of the game. The Broncos defense is respectable but it wasn't as if the Seahawks were playing against the Eagles, Packers, or Ravens and they were somply unable to put points up on the board. With a quarterback controversy looming with no clear cut starter in mind the Seahawks will have to rely heavily on their ground game and although Marshawn Lynch has shown signs of brilliance he is by no means an every down back as we saw in Buffalo. Justin Forsett in their to counter with Lynch but after a disappointing season from him last year there is no telling whether he will be a viable backup in Seattle. With a lot of uncertainty for both teams heading into the regular season I think they try and sort some things out on the fly and thus this game becomes a chess match. I like the Raiders to keep it close if not to pull off a win even though it is in the unfriendly confines of Qwest field.

KYLE'S PICK: Oakland Raiders +4

[Mr. IWS]

TCU at Baylor: What Bettors Need to Know

TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears (+4.5, 55.5)

THE STORY: No. 15 TCU finished last season a perfect 13-0 and has won 27 of its last 28 games dating back to 2008 but return just eight total starters. Baylor is coming off its first winning season since joining the Big 12 and first bowl appearance since 1994.

The Horned Frogs have dominated this series of late, winning the last three meetings against Baylor by a combined score of 89-17.

ABOUT TCU (2010: 13-0, 8-0 Mountain West): This is the Horned Frogs’ final season in the Mountain West before they depart for the Big East in 2012. Coach Gary Patterson lost record-setting quarterback Andy Dalton to the NFL and will ask sophomore Casey Pachall to fill his shoes. Linebacker Tank Carder — the Mountain West’s 2010 Defensive Player of the Year — should lead another stout TCU defense.

ABOUT BAYLOR (2010: 7-6, 4-4 Big 12): The Bears’ most successful season since the early 1990s ended sourly with a four-game losing streak and blowout loss to Illinois in the Texas Bowl. Junior quarterback Robert Griffin is Baylor’s do-everything star, and he has plenty of weapons at receiver in Kendall Wright, Josh Gordon and Terrance Williams. Coach Art Briles brought in highly regarded defensive coordinator Phil Bennett to fix a defense that gave up 30.5 points per game in 2010.

EXTRA POINTS

1. TCU has finished No. 1 in the FBS in total defense each of the past three years and in five of the last 11 seasons.

2. The Horned Frogs haven’t given up more than 19 points per game since 2004.

3. Baylor returns five players who caught at least 40 passes in 2010.

TRENDS

TCU is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against Baylor but just 1-5 ATS in its last six nonconference games.

Baylor is 18-38 ATS in its last 56 games as a home underdog.

The under is 5-0 in Baylor's last five nonconference games.

LINE MOVES

Oddsmakers opened with the Horned Frogs giving 6 to 6.5 points to the hosting Bears. But bettors have come in on Baylor with the line dropping all the way to 4.5. This is kind of a dead number, so you could see spread drop another half or full point before kickoff if the books don't get more action on TCU. The total seems to be holding steady between 55 and 56.

PREDICTION: TCU 20, Baylor 14 -- The Bears should be able to keep this one closer than in years past, but the Horned Frogs’ defense will be strong enough to pull out a tight victory.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Friday's Best CFB Bets

TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears (+4.5, 55.5)

The TCU Horned Frogs had a storybook season last year. TCU went 13-0 and finished second in the final AP college football standings. The team would have obviously liked to get a chance to play in the BCS Championship Game, but a hard fought win over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl was huge for the program. Art Briles has done an impressive job turning around the program at Baylor, and they would like nothing more than to stop TCU’s winning streak at 13 games. TCU dominated Baylor 45-10 last year, but the circumstances are a little different this season. This game will be nationally televised by ESPN on Friday night.

TCU’s team will look a whole lot different this season. Only eight starters return from a year ago, and the team lost 26 lettermen from last year’s undefeated team. Andy Dalton was the offensive leader for TCU, but he’s now the starter for the Cincinnati Bengals. Casey Pachall appears to be the guy who will be the starter, but he attempted just nine passes in his freshman season last year. The Horned Frogs lost three of their top four receivers, which will make life even more difficult for Pachall. On the positive side, TCU returns three terrific running backs. Ed Wesley, Matthew Tucker, and Waymon James should have another great year in the backfield. The strength of this TCU team will need to be the defense. Tank Carder and Tanner Brock are both great linebackers, but the defensive front must replace four out of five starters from last year. TCU has plenty of talent on its roster, but they also have quite a bit of inexperience.

Baylor was destroyed by Illinois in their bowl game at the end of last year, but the team still had a very successful 7-6 season. This was a program that was a perennial doormat just a few short years ago. Art Briles has come along and made this team pretty competitive. Robert Griffin III is the team’s leader, and he is one the best quarterbacks in the country. Griffin is a dual-threat quarterback who makes solid decisions with the football. He completed 67% of his passes last year, and he also ran for 635 yards. Griffin’s top five receivers from a year ago will be back, but the team will definitely miss star running back Jay Finley’s presence in the backfield. As good as the Baylor offense was last year, the defense was that terrible. Baylor’s defense allowed 30.5 points per game last season, and they lost some of their best talents on the defensive side of the football.

These teams know this is a great chance to show what they are made of on national television. I really like Griffin and the Bears offense, but Baylor’s defense is a real problem. TCU should still be able to run the football at will. I like the Horned Frogs to cover in this one.

PICK: TCU -5

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Texas Rangers At Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
By: Michael Robinson


Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox (-135, 10.5)

The Texas Rangers will be looking for revenge when they visit the Boston Red Sox for a weekend series beginning Friday night.

First pitch from Fenway Park will be at 7:10 p.m. (ET). It’s an all lefty pitching matchup with Andrew Miller against Derek Holland. The odds will be released shortly.

These teams met last week in Texas and it started well for the Rangers with a 4-0 victory. However, Boston stormed back to win the next three by a combined score of 30-7.

That series was a great boost for the Red Sox’ psyche. They were just 2-11 in their prior 13 games in the Lone Star State before the barrage. They will feel much more comfortable if they return down South for a potential playoff series.

The Rangers (77-60) first have to make the postseason, holding a 3.5-game lead over the Angels in the AL West. They took two of three versus the Angels after battling Boston and are playing the rubber match with Tampa Bay on Thursday night.

Texas is a 145 favorite behind C.J. Wilson, who now won’t be available for this series.

Holland (12-5, 4.30 ERA) hasn’t faced Boston this year, most recently pitching Friday versus the Angels and allowing one run over 6 2/3 innings. It was a great performance in a big game, but he’s been streaky with several poor outings to go along with great ones.

The ‘over’ is 8-2 in Holland’s last 10 starts following a quality start.

The 24-year-old did get one start at Fenway as a rookie in 2009. He surrendered four earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in an 8-1 loss. The jitters should be less Friday than in that game and he has pitched well away (6-3, 3.76 ERA) this year.

The Red Sox (83-52) are also playing a rubber match against the Yankees on Thursday. They’re a big 200 favorite behind Jon Lester and will have the AL East lead no matter the outcome.

There’s a theory that Boston is mentally exhausted after playing these grueling Yankees series. However, the stats show the team is 7-1 in the last eight Game 1’s of a series after playing New York.

Boston should also have a big addition to the lineup on Friday in third baseman Kevin Youkilis. He’s been out since August 17 with a back injury.

Miller (6-1, 4.42 ERA) is a very interesting pitcher who was acquired from Florida after flaming out as a high No. 1 pick by the Tigers. The pressure is much less with the Red Sox as a spot starter and they’ve won nine of his 10 starts, scoring a whopping 7.9 runs per game.

The 26-year-old lefty last pitched Thursday at Texas, allowing no runs on three hits over 6 1/3 innings (6-0 win). It was his longest outing of the season and he only walked two batters. Walks have been a problem this year (5.24 per nine innings).

Miller hasn’t had a home start since July 26. His home ERA is just 6.88, but it’s a small sample size of four appearances (three starts).

The Red Sox are 14-5 in their last 19 home games against a lefty starter. The Rangers are 2-5 in their last seven road games versus a lefty.

Boston is 41-26 at home this year, but for -2.7 betting units. The home record the last 16 games is just 8-8.

Texas is 34-32 away this year (+1.2 units), but hasn’t played at Fenway. It went 4-3 there last season.

The Rangers just activated third baseman Adrian Beltre from the disabled list following his stint away with a hamstring injury. But they're still missing outfielder Nelson Cruz who is also nursing a hamstring pull. Texas has scored just three total runs in the two games since Cruz went out.

Weather should be clear and in the 60s. Saturday’s matchup is Colby Lewis against Erik Bedard.

[Mr. IWS]

Friday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

John Danks (6-9, 3.63 ERA), Chicago White Sox

On May 29, Jon Danks gave up nine runs in four innings of work and picked up his eighth loss of the season. The summer months have been much kinder to the Chi-Sox righty.

Chicago is 9-2 in Danks starts since and the club was never a bigger fave that -155. Danks is 6-1 with a 2.03 ERA over his last 11 trips to the bump and the under is 9-1-1 over the stretch.

“Wow,” White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen told reporters after Danks’ most recent start, a complete game shutout with 10 K’s to boot. “He’s been throwing the ball pretty good the last six or seven starts. I think today was the best he’s thrown the ball in a long time.”

Bruce Chen (10-5, 3.94 ERA), Kansas City Royals

The Royals win 68.4 percent of this journeyman hurler toes the rubber. Anytime a starting pitcher has that type of success playing for a team as poor as Kansas City, you know baseball bettors will be following.

Chen is the seven best bet in baseball and our starter money list shows that you’d be up 9.89 units if you bet the lefty in each of his starts this season. The Royals are 5-0 in his last five appearances and the under is 4-1 over the same period.

SLUMPING

Chris Carpenter (8-9, 3.76 ERA), St. Louis Cardinals

We’re not sure if it’s Carpenter or just the Cards that are struggling. Either way the net result isn’t good. Carpenter owns a respectable 3.86 ERA over his last seven trips to the hill but the Cardinals are just 2-5 over the stretch.

St. Louis is averaging just 2.3 runs per game in the former Cy Young winners’ last seven starts. That’s not going to help Cardinal backers.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Friday’s Best MLB Bets

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-135, 7)

It was only fitting that as the calendar turned from August to September, Albert Pujols powered the Cardinals to a huge win over the Brewers.

Pujols went 4-for-4 with a grand slam, a solo homer and five RBIs in St. Louis’ sweep-clinching 8-4 win over Milwaukee at Miller Park Thursday. Pujols is a career .344 hitter in September and now the Cards now sit 7 ½ games back of the Brewers in the NL Central.

"As many games as we have left, if we keep playing the way we did here, then we still have a pretty good chance," Pujols told reporters after the win.

It would take a real collapse from the Brewers for St. Louis to end up at the top of the division, but it’s not out of the question. With Chris Carpenter on the hill, the Cards should get a little closer Friday when they ride their momentum into this home series against the Reds.

PICK: Cardinals


Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox (-135, 10.5)

Andrew Miller might not be the biggest name in Boston’s starting rotation, but he definitely deserves to be there. He has allowed just one run over his last two starts and is coming off an impressive win over these Rangers.

The big lefty threw 6 1/3 shutout innings, allowing just one batter to reach third base – and that was on an error. He struck out six and walked two while improving to 6-1 on the year.

“It was fun to watch,” Boston manager Terry Francona told reporters of Miller’s performance. “I think the biggest thing he did was he repeated his pitches. We’ve always seen glimpses, but he just kept going out there and repeating. He threw fastball, breaking ball, change-up, against a lineup that is pretty dangerous and he did a really good job.”

The Rangers have a pretty tough lineup to shut down in back-to-back starts but we’ve seen enough from him to at least put down an under bet.

PICK: Under

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA NEWS AND NOTES
Fever, Sun Clash In WNBA Betting Battle
By: Adam Markowitz


Indiana Fever at Connecticut Sun (-3.5, 150.5)

The Indiana Fever could move one step closer towards becoming the No. 1 seed in the WNBA playoffs on Friday night when they take on the Connecticut Sun. WNBA TV will have live coverage of this crucial clash, which gets started at 7:30 p.m. (ET) at the Mohegan Sun Arena.

Home-court advantage is always crucial when analyzing the WNBA odds, and the proof is definitely in the pudding in this matchup. Indiana is sitting at 19-10 straight up and 17-11-1 against the spread on the campaign, but the Fever are just 7-7 SU outside of Conseco Fieldhouse and will face a tough test to take down Connecticut (18-12 SU, 16-14 ATS) who is 13-2 SU at home.

Indiana bucked the trend the last time that these two met, pulling off the upset as 5½-point underdogs here at the Mohegan Sun Arena, winning 69-58 to hand the Sun one of their two home losses on the season.

As a result, Connecticut is 1½-games out of first place in the Eastern Conference. The Fever have already clinched a playoff berth and have a magic number of three to clinch the top spot in the East for the postseason. The Sun can punch their postseason ticket with a win on Friday night.

Indiana has been slipping of late though, especially having all sorts of problems with the Atlanta Dream. The Dream knocked off the Fever in back-to-back games, winning 86-80 at Conseco Fieldhouse on August 27 and 92-90 on August 30 at Phillips Arena.

The Fever have now dropped three of their last four games, which has really made this Eastern Conference race a heck of a lot tighter than perhaps it should have been.

With fourth-leading scorer Briann January sitting on the bench, Indiana has gone just 2-4-1 ATS. January's season-ending knee injury has left the trio of Tamika Catchings, Katie Douglas and Jessica Davenport to pick up the slack.

Catchings is one of the best all-around players that this league has to offer. She's averaging 15.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 3.6 APG. The former Tennessee Volunteer has averaged 21.4 PPG in her last seven games, but the Fever are only 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS to show for her work in that stretch.

Meanwhile, Connecticut has been sliding as well with consecutive losses on the road to the Tulsa Shock and San Antonio Silver Stars. The team has lost four in a row as visitors, which is why these final four games are so important.

The New York Liberty are only a game in the Sun's rearview mirror for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, a seed which ensures home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

The Sun have really dropped off defensively, allowing at least 72 points in nine straight duels. The team is allowing 78.7 PPG on the campaign, only good enough to rank No. 8 in the WNBA.

The offense is paced by four double-digit scorers – Tina Charles, Renee Montgomery, Asjha Jones and Kara Lawson.

This is the fifth and final meeting between these two teams in the regular season. Indiana holds a 3-1 SU and ATS edge coming into Friday's clash. However, Connecticut is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings of these rivals at the Mohegan Sun Arena.

The Fever are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall and have covered four straight spreads following an SU defeat. Connecticut is 8-3 ATS its last 11 conference games and 5-2 ATS in the last seven coming off a SU defeat.

[Mr. IWS]

Friday's Best WNBA Bet

Indiana Fever at Connecticut Sun (-3.5, 150.5)

Connecticut is second in the Eastern Conference with a record 7W-5L since the beginning of the season they are undefeated at home with a record of 5W-0L, she meets Indiana who have a record 10W-4L since the beginning of the season, their record away is 3W-2L, it was a series of seven straight win but it was a broken against Minnesota in last match (80-70).

Both teams are in the top 5 of the best defense in the league with 78 points average for Connecticut and 74 points for Indiana.
Indiana made ??the last 5 home game and have less tendency to defend when it play away,Indiana average away is 79 point to offense and 79 point to defense also.
Connecticut played very offensive when it played at home, she had 83 point to offense and 73 points to defense
Two meeting this season between these two team,first meeting 75-70 and 90-68 in second meeting, two victory for Indiana!

PICK: Over

[Mr. IWS]

CFL NEWS AND NOTES
CFL Betting Notes - Week 10
By David Schwab


British Columbia Lions at Toronto Argonauts (PICK ) Over/Under (51½)

This week’s games mark the halfway point of the 2011 CFL regular season as all eight teams are back in action after a pair of bye weeks. Last week, Winnipeg squeezed out a 30-27 victory over Hamilton on Friday night but could not cover the spread as a 3½-point home favorite. The total went well ‘over’ the 49½-point closing line. This past Saturday, Calgary came out on top 38-31 as a one-point home favorite in a shootout with Montreal. The total easily eclipsed the 55-point line.

BC comes off its bye week with a 2-6 record straight-up and a 3-5 record against the spread. It is 1-3 SU on the road this season and 2-2 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of its eight games. Toronto has matched the Lions win total with a 2-6 SU record and is 4-4 ATS. It is 1-2 at home both SU and ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of its eight games.

These two teams met twice last season with the Argonauts winning the first game 24-20 as 1½-point home favorites. The Lions won the second time around 37-16 as 4½-point home favorites. Toronto is 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings overall and the total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of the last eight games at the Rogers Centre. Cleo Lemon remains the starting quarterback for the Argonauts with Steven Jyles still on the nine-week injured list.