9-2-11

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Friday

Play Milwaukee (-200) over Houston (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 8:00 PM EST

Milwaukee has won 31 of the last 36 games as a favorite of -150 or more and they have also won 67 of the last 104 games vs. right-handed starting pitchers. Zack Greinke has won 15 of the last 18 games as a favorite of -110 or higher and he is 2-0 vs. Houston over his career with an ERA of 1.20.

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Play Tampa Bay (-210) over Baltimore (Bonus)

Play New York Yankees (-180) over Toronto (Bonus)

[Mr. IWS]

Big Slick Sports
NCAAF for Friday

15* - TCU Horned Frogs @ Baylor Bears - OVER 53.5

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks
1 - 3 this week

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears 8:00PM ET
The 2011 CFB season kicks off for both the TCU Horned Frogs and Baylor Bears in Waco Friday night from Floyd Casey Stadium where the respective programs will collide for the second year in a row; kick-off live on ESPN is set for 8:00 ET.
The Horned Frogs enter their 2011-12 campaign off a brilliant effort a season ago that saw them go a perfect 13-0 SU en route to capping the season with a Rose Bowl victory over the Wisconsin Badgers. HC Patterson’s club finished up #2 in the AP Poll and even garnered some votes as the #1 team. This season looks to be a rebuilding year in Fort Worth with only eight starters returning from last year’s team. Still, TCU has shown a penchant for excellent recruiting over the years, so the Horned Frogs will by no means be overlooked by any opponent it faces this season. MLB Tank Carder and his mates are a perfect 11-0 SU & 8-3 ATS on the road the last two seasons.
After managing just 4-8 SU records each of the first two seasons with HC Art Briles at the helm of the Bears program, Baylor went 7-6 SU last season and punched its ticket to a bowl game for the first time since 1994. Though it got its doors blown off by Illinois in the Texas Bowl as a one-point favorite (38-13), there’s still plenty of hope of another winning season in Waco. And why not, with QB Robert Griffin III in control of an offense that broke a multitude of school records last year with nine starters on that side of the ball returning. The problem for the Bears last year came on the other side of the ball though, as it allowed opponents to score an average of 30.5 PPG and only returns five bodies from that unit.
Baylor will no doubt take the field on Friday night extremely motivated to exorcise the demons that still remain from the 45-10 woodshed beating it absorbed at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth last season. However, TCU’s covered each of its L/4 confrontations with the in-state rival Bears, while Baylor is just 3-13 SU & 6-10 ATS the L/16 times it went off the board dogged.
PICK: TCU/BAYLOR OVER

[Mr. IWS]

EasyBaseballBetting
Our systems say to go for:

Orioles (+196),
Rockies (+104),
Diamondbacks (+153),
Blue Jays (+158),
Cardinals (-139),
White Sox (+195),
Mets (-103),
Royals (+113),
Astros (+199).

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

250* Indians -125
100* Reds +120

NCAAF
50* TCU -3.5

[Mr. IWS]

Todays Picks

San Diego Padres ML -110

Washington Nationals ML -105

[Mr. IWS]

Defeat Your Bookie

Jesus Munsero

3* Kansas City Royals ML +105

2* Arizona D´Backs ML +145

Mat Earlston

6* Boston Red Sox ML -130

4* St. Louis Cardinals ML -140

Jhonny Palumbo

3* OVER 9.5 - Toronto / NY Yankees

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

Toronto +160 over N.Y. YANKEES Pinnacle

The result of this game does not matter. If we lose, we lose but in terms of a gross overlay, you really need not look further than this one. Brandon Morrow taking back 60 cents against Ivan Nova after the Yanks series win in Boston is about as sweet as it gets. Those games against Boston are taxing, and intense and for the Yanks, this last series was also gratifying. Nova made the 2011 rotation out of spring training and though an ankle injury cut his July short, he's still won 14 of his 22 starts. Say what you want about Yankee run support (for the record, it's been a whopping 6.89 RPG) Nova still has pitched good enough to get those "W"s. However, while Nova has shown several incremental improvements in this his second time through the league, his win total still far outpaces his skills. In 2011, control and strikeout rate have slipped a bit in tandem -- the net has meant no significant change in his sub-par command. Groundball growth has been a positive, and likely plays a large part in his xERA gains. For the second year, Nova has given up more hits than innings pitched and batters are hitting .272 against him, which does no favors for his WHIP (1.37). Until/unless he misses a few more bats, Nova looks like a back-end innings eater at best. Don't be smitten by the wins. Brandon Morrow does not have the surface stats of an ace (4.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), but some of his skills are elite (164 k’s in 143 IP). The root cause of his problems is a strange home/road split. He has posted a 6.87 ERA and 1.58 WHIP at home due to a 39% hit rate and 56% strand rate. However, on the road, Morrow is 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA and when you break it down there is a ton of profit potential on him. Win or lose, we’re going with the best of it, as the Jays streaky bats have once again woke up. Play: Toronto +160 (Risking 2 units).

Seattle +132 over OAKLAND Pinnacle

The first thing to note here is that the Mariners are 9-4 versus the A’s this year. Advantage Seattle. Also, the A’s have lost five of its last six while the Mariners just split a four-game series with the Angels. Advantage Seattle. And then there’s Guillermo Moscoso, perhaps the biggest fraud in all of MLB. Moscoso has been taking a regular turn in the rotation and the results have been pretty good overall: 6 W, 3.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. But don't be fooled. This is a ticking time bomb, one who has been hit hard in five of his last eight starts. His strikeout rate, command, 56% fly-ball%, and 5.16 xERA are all on the wrong side of acceptable. CAVEAT EMPTOR (that means "AVOID"). Jason Vargas is another finesse lefty that pitches to contact and is not a good risk as a favorite. However, this is absolutely nothing to do with wagering on Vargas and everything to do with taking back a tag against Moscoso. Play: Seattle +132 (Risking 2 units).

NCAA FB

BAYLOR +4/+150 over Texas Christian SportsInteraction

The first lone football game of the year and the books made the Horned Frogs an enticing small favorite on the road in game that is going to attract a ton of money. TCU beat the Bears last season by a whopping 45-10 and they also have the second longest winning streak in the nation, which now stands at 13. On the road, the Frogs own the nations longest winning streak, which now stands at 11. Of course the Frogs look like the right play but the line says otherwise and that’s something that should never be ignored. What we know for sure is that the Horned Frogs lost their most important player in QB Andy Dalton. Now the Bears are forced to go to sophomore Cast Pachell, a guy with very little experience. The Horned Frogs' Rose Bowl season was the culmination of a decade of program-building. They now lose 26 lettermen, and are largely green at every position group except running back and linebacker. TCU has the valuable commodities of talent and coaching, but no, this program does not just reload -- not with only eight returning starters to try to fashion an encore to one of the greatest seasons in school history. The Frogs have been ranked highly (14) this year based on last year’s performance and in no way are they the 14th best team in the country. Baylor is much more comfortable in its own offensive skin than is an Andy Dalton-less TCU, with dynamic Robert Griffin III guiding an attack well-stocked with talented veterans of multiple years in the system. The Bears' defense can hold its own against a TCU offensive line in major transition. Baylor has the strongest momentum and buzz around the program in a long time and will be looking to make a statement in this prime time home opener. Art Briles' Bears are ready to win a game like this against a way overvalued Frogs. Play: Baylor +4 (Risking 1.1 units to win 1) Play: Baylor +150 (Risking 1 unit).


CFL
B.C. Lions –2 over TORONTO Bet365

Game opened as a pick’em and the Lions have taken most of the money since. That’s usually a sign to stay away and we’re going to do just that. It’s not easy to pull the trigger on the Argos. Despite beating the Roughriders in its last game, the Argos were clearly the second best team on the field and they’re not taking a step down in class. Every call and every bouncing ball went in the Argos favor and they nearly blew an 17-point lead going to the fourth quarter. In this offensive-minded league, the Argos are dead last in time of possession. For the Lions, it’s déjà vu all over again, as last year they started horribly and came on big time in the second half. They are the superior team here despite the identical 2-6 records. B.C. is coming off a 36-1 blowout in Edmonton against the depleted Eskies but we wouldn’t put too much emphasis on that. Edmonton was and still is reeling. The Lions only other win came against Saskatchewan and two wins against the league’s two worst teams right now is not that encouraging. Still, we know the Lions are the better team on paper but we’re going to have to see just a little bit more from tem before endorsing them as road chalk. Put a gun to our heads and we’d lay the points with some reserve. Play: B.C. Lions (No bets).

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions
Kevin

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees – OVER 9.5 RUNS (+105)
(Note: I’m risking 2 units to win 2.10 units)

The Blue Jays head to New York off of a solid series in Baltimore, where they scored 26 runs taking two of three. New York went into Boston and took two of their three games versus their AL East rival, moving them just a half game back in the division. The Blue Jays have Brandon Morrow on the mound, who has struggled as of late. In his last two outings Morrow has given up 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings against the Rays, and 6 earned runs (11 hits) in 4.2 innings against the Royals. He is 9-9 on the season with a 4.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .241 opponents batting average. In his lone start against the Yankees this season Morrow picked up the win at home, but has yet to pitch at Yankee stadium this season. Although Morrow has pitched well on the road, taking a look back he hasn’t played many playoff calibre teams away from home. Pitching in Boston he went just 5 innings giving up 4 earned runs. The Yankees will counter with Ivan Nova, who is 14-4 on the year with a 3.96 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .265 opponents batting average. Note the Yankees have scored 92 runs in Nova’s last 11 starts, and are averaging 5.78 runs per game at home on the season. The Blue Jays have their bats going, and that can be good news for them in a hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. In addition to the home run power of Bautista and Lind, the Jays have picked up power hitter Kelly Johnson who is 9 for 17 with two homers in his last 4 games and rookie Brett Lawrie who has smashed four homers during his 9 game hitting streak. The OVER is 6-0 in the Jays last 6 overall, 6-0 in their last 6 vs AL East opponents, and 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The OVER is also 11-4 in Morrow’s last 15 starts as a road underdog, 15-5-1 in his last 21 starts with 4 days rest, and 4-1 in his last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. Note that the OVER is 4-1 in the Yankees last 5 during game 1 of a series, 4-0 in their last 4 home games, and 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs a right handed starter. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Nova’s last 7 home starts, 8-2-2 in his last 12 starts as a favorite, and 6-2 in his last 8 vs AL East opponents. In these two teams last 14 meetings in New York the OVER is 10-3-1. When two power hitting teams that are playing with confidence meet up in New York it is always good to take a look at the OVER. Tonight looks like another high scoring game between these two clubs in the Bronx. I’m on the OVER.

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

NCAAF *BEST BET*
5* Baylor +4

MLB Friday Night SMASH
3* Diamondbacks RL

Comp
Cardinals

[Mr. IWS]

LT Profits

MLB

Blue Jays +156
Rockies +105

[Mr. IWS]

Vic Monte

2000* MAX OUT SPECIAL - ST LOUIS CARDS -140

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Braves -155 over Dodgers

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

TCU -4 over Baylor

[Mr. IWS]

RANDY BRUCE

MLB: *5 dimes
Mariners/Athletics Over 7.5, Even


NCAA Football: *5 dimes
TCU/Baylor Under 53, -110