9-12-11

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ATS Lock Blitz Newsletter from Maryland

New England is 3-1 ATS L4 on the road in series.

Last year: New England (pk/48) beat Miami on the road, 41-14 and at home, (-4.5/44) 38-7. The Pats owned the Dolphins last year and they should be a very good team again. Only question is at wide receiver, where Wes Welker (86 for 848), Chad Ochocinco (67 for 831yds) and Deion Branch (61 for 818) are not explosive-type playmakers anymore. They’ll rely more on their running game and outstanding tight ends. Miami does add a playmaker in Reggie Bush to help out Chad Henne (3301yds, 15, 19), who had a bad regular season but was very good in the preseason.

New England over Miami 34-27


Oakland is 3-0 ATS L3 in series and 5-0 ATS L5 on the road in series.

Last year: Oakland (-8/41.5) over Denver 39-23 at home and beat
Denver (+7/42) on the road, 59-14. Oakland was a steady 8-8 last season but they
lose star CB Nnamdi Asomugah to a pass defense that allowed just 189 yards per game in the air. The run defense was a different story (4.5ypc allowed). John Fox takes over in Denver to a team that should be improved some with the addition of NT Brodrick Bunkley and rookie LB Von Miller and SS Rahim Moore. QB Kyle Orton doesn’t have a lot of weapons though Brandon Lloyd (77 for 1,448yds, 11TDs) is coming off a huge season.

Denver over Oakland 28-24


MLB Best Bet: Fla/Atl Under

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Raiders at Broncos: What Bettors Need to Know


Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3, 40)

THE STORY: Most of the offseason talk surrounding the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders centered on their respective quarterbacks. No surprise there, except in both cases the quarterbacks in question are not expected to be contributors this season.

Tim Tebow and Terrelle Pryor will be watching from the sideline when Denver opens the season by hosting Oakland in an AFC West matchup on Monday night. Of more consequence, each team will feature new head coaches (John Fox for the Broncos and Hue Jackson for the Raiders) amid renewed optimism that both can challenge for the division crown.

TV: ESPN, 10:15 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2010: 4-12, 4th, AFC West): Ex-Carolina Panthers coach Fox was brought in to help plug a sieve defense that allowed an NFL-high 471 points last season. Kyle Orton, the subject of major trade rumors in the offseason, returns as the starter after throwing for 3,653 yards and 20 TDs in 13 games last season. Although Brandon Lloyd led the league with 1,448 receiving yards, expect a more balanced offense with Willis McGahee joining former first-round draft pick Knowshon Moreno in the backfield. LB Von Miller was drafted No. 2 overall to bolster the defense, and the pass rush in particular.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2010: 8-8, 3rd AFC West): Oakland ended a string of seven straight seasons with double-digits losses, but it couldn’t save head coach Tom Cable’s job. The Raiders went 6-0 against the division, helped in large part by a breakout season from RB Darren McFadden, who finally lived up to his billing as a No. 4 overall pick and was second overall in the league with 128.0 yards from scrimmage per game. With a stable of speedy, young receivers, QB Jason Campbell (2,387 yards, 13 TDs) may be asked to do more in his second season with the Raiders.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Raiders annihilated the Broncos in two meetings last season, outscoring them 98-37. That included a 59-31 thrashing in which McFadden romped for four touchdowns.

2. Denver usually starts the season well, posting an AFC-best 32-18-1 mark in season openers, including winning 16 of the last 22. The Broncos also have won 11 consecutive home games on Kickoff Weekend.

3. In their glory days under owner Al Davis, the Raiders were known as the Kings of Monday Night. Not anymore. Oakland has lost 11 straight games in prime time since beating Denver in November 2008.

TRENDS:

The Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against AFC West opponents but 1-5 ATS in their last six Week 1 games.

The Broncos are 11-25-2 ATS in their last 38 home games and 8-26-1 in their last 35 games as favorites.

The over is 5-1 in Denver’s last six home games.

LINE MOVEMENT:

This game opened as a pick ‘em at most sportsbooks back in early August but got bet up to Broncos -3. The game is still at Denver by a field goal but the juice is starting to climb (-125 on Sunday afternoon). We could see the line close with Oakland getting 3.5 points.

The total sits at 40.5 and has been around that numbers since oddsmakers first opened the over/under line.

PREDICTION: Broncos 20, Raiders 19. One of the league’s best home-field advantages comes into play as Fox wins his debut – narrowly – and Denver avenges a pair of humbling beatings by Oakland last season.

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Patriots at Dolphins: What Bettors Need to Know


New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7, 45.5)

THE STORY: Bill Belichick is the master of the poker face and non-disclosure, but the coach of the New England Patriots made no secret of his strategy this offseason: He’s all in.

Following a second straight home playoff loss, Belichick brought in a bevy of high-profile veterans – most notably Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth – in a shocking pair of trades following the lockout.

Even for a franchise that has a reputation of being a halfway house for malcontent stars (see: Randy Moss and Corey Dillon), those acquisitions scream out that nothing less than another Super Bowl ring will satisfy Belichick. New England’s quest begins Monday night at AFC East rival Miami.

TV: ESPN, 7 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (2010: 7-9, 3rd, AFC East): Miami had its own share of offseason drama. QB Chad Henne remains the starter after a much-publicized failed trade for Denver’s Kyle Orton, and star WR Brandon Marshall was stabbed in the abdomen (allegedly by his wife) and later revealed that he suffers from borderline personality disorder.

The Dolphins have their own personality issues as a team, particularly a stunning inability to win at home (1-7) last season. The RB tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams was scuttled in favor of ex-Saint Reggie Bush and second-round rookie draft pick Daniel Thomas.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2010: 14-2, 1st, AFC East): Behind unanimous MVP selection Tom Brady, New England was an offensive juggernaut last season, running up a league-high 518 points before being run out of the playoffs by the Jets.

Belichick overhauled a defense that couldn’t sniff a QB by bringing in the massive Haynesworth along with pass rushers Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter.
Ochocinco did not make much of an impression in preseason as he tries to adjust to an offense that spreads the ball around. That Patriots drafted RBs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley to back up 1,000-yard rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady won his second MVP award after throwing 36 touchdowns against only four interceptions last season. He set an NFL record with a streak of 335 completions without an interception. The last time he was picked off in the regular season was against Baltimore on Oct. 17, 2010.

2. Miami’s Cameron Wake was second in the AFC with 14 sacks last season, while new arrival Bush leads all NFL running backs with 294 receptions since 2006.

3. The Patriots swept the Dolphins in lopsided fashion last season, outscoring them 79-21.

TRENDS:

The Pats are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as road favorites and 44-21-3 ATS in their last 68 road games.

The Dolphins are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when getting points but 17-45-1 ATS in their last 63 home games.

The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams.

LINE MOVEMENT:

The spread opened in late June with the Patriots listed as 4-point road favorites. The number has been bet up to Pats -7. The total is staying put around 45.

PREDICTION: Patriots 27, Dolphins 20. New England brings its talents to South Beach and will get a tougher-than-expected matchup from a gritty Miami defense in stifling heat.

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The Goldsheet

KEY RELEASES

DETROIT by 9 over Tampa Bay

DENVER by 14 over Oakland (Monday)
OVER THE TOTAL in the New England-Miami game (Monday)

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 12


OVER THE TOTAL *New England 35 - MIAMI 20—Without the hard- hitting runs of Ronnie Brown & Rickie Williams, Miami coach Tony Sparano says the Dolphins can no longer “crawl” down the field with a ball-control offense. Instead, with the multi-talented Reggie Bush available to position strategically, Miami intends to attack this season, spreading the field, using more shotgun and more first-down passes. The question is whether Dolphin QB Chad Henne (15 TDs, 19 ints. LY) is the guy to execute such a system, especially in a throwing contest with Tom Brady. It will be interesting to see whether the Pats’ new veteran pass rushers of Andre Carter, Sean Ellis & Albert Haynesworth can give a boost to a Patriot defense that was 30th vs. the pass LY and last on third down (allowing 47% conversions), although most foes were playing from behind early in 2010. N.E. “over” 15 of last 18. CABLE TV—ESPN


*DENVER 30 - Oakland 16—The Raiders hammered the Josh McDaniels Broncos by a combined score of 98-37 LY, rushing for a total of 592 yards. With Darren McFadden (sat out the preseason with a fractured orbital bone) expected back for the Silver & Black, Oakland is hoping to do more of the same. However, there’s a new era beginning in Denver, with players reportedly happy that veteran HC John Fox has installed a little smashmouth football in the Mile High City. The Broncos were 31st vs. the run last season, but it should be noted that the Raiders themselves have ranked 31, 31, 29 & 29 the L4Ys. Elvis Dumervil (17 sacks in 2009) is back for the Denver defense and is now aided by star rookie LB Von Miller. Oakland secondary not the same without CB Nnamdi Asomugha, and the offense will miss steady veterans LG Robert Gallery & TE Zach Miller. TV—ESPN

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Rick Needham

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Monday September 12th, 2011 7:00PM EST, NFL Football Week 1 Sun Life Stadium Miami, Florida

Point Spread: NE -7/MIA 7
Over/Under Total: 45

The Miami Dolphins will have the luxury of hosting the first Monday Night Football Game of the new NFL season when they host the New England Patriots at FBZ Sun Life Stadium. The Dolphins look to rebound after a disappointing 7-9 campaign in 2010. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they will start their season off against one of the best teams in the NFL by way of the New England Patriots. In fact, the Patriots dominated their AFC East rivals in 2010 by outscoring Miami 79-21 combined in their two meetings. This season the Patriots have added more talent on both sides of the ball and looked poised to make a run at another AFC Championship.

New England added two big names on both sides of the ball over the off-season despite both players having well-known character issues. On offense, the Patriots signed WR Chad Ochocinco in hopes to find another weapon for QB Tom Brady. It has been stated that Ochocinco's work ethic has declined over the past few years, which reflect his numbers on the field. However, he is still a great athlete that can be a big time player in the Patriots' offense. If Ochocinco can stay focused, there is not any reason to expect that he will not be a big contributor for the offense. Fortunately for Ochocinco, he will not have to carry the offense along in the receiving game like he has with some of his prior teams. WR Wes Welker was the team's leading receiver last season with 86 catches for 848 yards and 7 scores. Considering the fact Welker is healthier this season, he should be primed for an even better season. If both guys stay healthy, this should be an even more dangerous Patriots offense in 2011.

Despite little receiving help in 2010, QB Tom Brady still posted dominant numbers. Brady completed 66% passing for 3,900 yards with 36 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. It's hard to believe that Brady could improve on those numbers from last season, but it is also very possible if the receiving core stays healthy. As good as the Patriots are on offense; Coach Belichick hopes they will also be on the defensive side of the ball. New England was inconsistent in 2010 giving up over 360 yards per game in a defense that ranked 25th overall. This season New England added troubled DT Albert Haynesworth on the defensive line. Haynesworth's previous troubles have been well documented, but he is still one of the most dominating forces among the defensive front in the NFL when he wants to be. Sure Haynesworth has been a nuisance in the past, but this could be his last opportunity to play football as well. Considering the fact Haynesworth is not making ridiculous amounts of FBZ money any longer by sitting on the bench, I really expect him to come out and be a force defensively. With the help of some additional depth among the defensive front, the Patriots should be an improved bunch in 2011 overall.

Miami on the other hand is a team with a lot more questions entering 2011. QB Chad Henne took over the starting job in 2010, but was plagued by inconsistency completing 61% for 3,301 yards with 15 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. In fact, it was the 2nd straight season that Henne finished the year with more interceptions thrown than touchdowns. This season Henne will again be the starter in possibly what will be his make or break year for the Dolphins.

In the receiving game, the Dolphins are led by WR Brandon Marshall who is among the best receivers in the NFL. In 2010, Marshall caught 86 passes for 1,014 yards with 3 touchdowns. While those numbers are not staggering, they are pretty solid if you consider how much Miami struggled in the passing game. Marshall is a guy that can potentially lead this Miami team with big play ability if someone (Henne) can just get him the ball on a consistent basis. One of the bigger questions for the Miami offense in 2011 will be the search for a rushing game. Both starting running backs from 2010 in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown departed from the team over the off-season. The Dolphins did acquire running back Reggie Bush from New Orleans. However, Bush has yet to prove that he can be an every down back in the NFL. Bush has had some brilliant moments catching passes out of the backfield during his tenure with the Saints, but has yet to prove he can be a reliable every down threat. If Bush fails to yield the threat of a rushing game, it will make things even more difficult for the struggling Henne at quarterback. Defensively, the Dolphins return the majority of a group that ranked 6th overall last season giving up only 309 yards per game. The Dolphins defense is loaded with talent. Leading the group is LB Cameron Wake. Wake recorded the 2nd most sacks in the NFL last season with 14 total while earning a trip to the Pro Bowl. Most believe the defense will be every bit as solid this season as they gained more experience over the off-season. Therefore, the Miami offense's ability to score points will likely be the determining factor in deciding if the Dolphins have a successful season.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The simple fact here is the Dolphins are retracting and the Patriots are progressing from a team stand point. The Patriots appear to have an offense that could virtually become unstoppable this season and it is hard to believe that an offense as inconsistent as Miami will be able to keep pace. Therefore, I think this is another New England blowout just like their last 2 meetings over Miami. I'll TAKE NEW ENGLAND TO WIN AND COVER!

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JACK HOWARD

10* New England -7

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Erin Rynning

AFC GOY 20* Miami

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RICHIE CARRERA

New England -7 over MIAMI 10 Dimes

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JOHN HARRISON

9-12-11 New England Patriots -6.5 (20 UNITS)

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Mighty Quinn

Miami
Raiders

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Todays Picks

Miami Dolphins +7

Oakland Raiders +3

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL

2* Miami

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Sniperpicks

5* patsover45.5

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DOUBLE DRAGON NFL

PATRIOTS -7 at dolphins
BRONCOS -3 vs raiders