9-16-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

DCI

FBS Non-Conference
Boise State 46, TOLEDO 21
CONNECTICUT 27, Iowa State 20

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Hot Sheet

Boise -20

[Mr. IWS]

Boise State at Toledo: What Bettors Need to Know

Boise State Broncos at Toledo Rockets (+20, 59.5)

THE STORY: Boise State wouldn’t figure to have a lot of trouble with Toledo but Ohio State certainly didn’t expect to either. The No. 4 Broncos insist they won’t be taking the Rockets lightly after Toledo nearly upset the Buckeyes before falling 27-22 last Saturday. Boise State is the highest-ranked team to ever visit Toledo’s Glass Bowl. The Broncos haven’t played in 13 days since defeating Georgia in their nationally-televised opening contest. Boise State routed Toledo 57-14 last season in the only previous meeting between the two schools.

TV: ESPN.

LINE MOVES: This spread opened with BSU at -17 and money on the Broncos has driven the spread as high as -20. The total has also moved, going from its opening post of 58.5 points to 59.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

ABOUT TOLEDO (1-1): The Rockets enter the contest with a lot of confidence after slugging it out with powerful Ohio State. Receiver Eric Page caught 12 passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns against Ohio State and has 17 receptions in two games. The Rockets use a two-quarterback system with Austin Dantin (316 yards, four touchdowns) and Terrance Owens (259 yards, three touchdowns) both faring well.

Toledo also was impressive defensively, holding the Buckeyes to 301 yards. Standout linebacker Dan Molls (leg) will likely miss his second straight game and fellow linebacker Robert Bell (ribs) is also ailing.

The previous highest-ranked team to visit Toledo was No. 9 Pittsburgh in 2003. The Rockets upset the Panthers 35-31.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (1-0): The Broncos forced six three-and-outs in their victory over Georgia. Quarterback Kellen Moore threw three touchdown passes and has thrown multiple touchdowns in 34 of 41 career games. Moore is 39-2 as a starter and is six wins away from matching the career victories record held by former Texas star Colt McCoy.

Defensive end Shea McClellin scored on a 36-yard interception against Toledo last season. Starting safety Cedric Febis was expected to miss his second straight game as one of three Dutch players in Boise State’s program having their eligibility investigated by the NCAA.But Febis was re-instated by the NCAA on Thursday.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Broncos were officially placed on NCAA probation Tuesday. The penalties included the loss of nine scholarships over a three-year span.

2. Toledo’s Page had 11 receptions for 120 yards in last year’s contest against Boise State.

3. Boise State is 17-2 when playing on Fridays.

PREDICTION: Boise State 45, Toledo 17 – The Broncos are well rested and typically well prepared and it’s bad timing for the Rockets to face the Broncos six days after meeting Ohio State.

[Mr. IWS]

College Football Betting News and Notes Friday
Boise St. at Toledo
By Brian Edwards

After dealing out woodshed treatment to Georgia in Atlanta, Boise State (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) had an open date in Week 2. The Broncos will get back to work Friday night when they go on the road again to take on Toledo at the Glass Bowl.

Most betting shops opened Chris Petersen’s team as a 17-point favorite Sunday night. However, the number was up to 18 or 18½ by Monday afternoon. Then on Tuesday, most spots adjusted BSU to a 20-point ‘chalk.’ The total was in the 59-60 range Thursday morning, while Toledo (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) was listed at plus-700 to win outright (risk $100 to win $700).

Kellen Moore was the catalyst for Boise St. in its 35-21 season-opening win over UGA, completing 28-of-34 passes for 261 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Without former star WRs Austin Pettis and Titus Young, Moore spread the wealth around by connecting with five different targets three times or more.

UGA drew first blood on an 80-yard touchdown run, but BSU responded by scoring 28 unanswered points. While Moore shredded the Dawgs’ secondary, Boise St.’s defense looked like an SEC-type unit by locking down Aaron Murray and Co. (BSU’s ‘D’ looks even better after Georgia put up 42 points against South Carolina this past weekend.)

Georgia would cut the deficit to 14 twice at 28-14 and 35-21, but it never really got back into the game. When the final gun sounded, Boise St. had gone into enemy territory across the country to pick up a huge win for a second straight season opener.

Tim Beckman’s team won its lid-lifter by trouncing New Hampshire 58-22 as a 10½-point home favorite. Junior quarterback Austin Dantin, a product of Tallahassee Leon High School’s storied high-school program, completed 15-of-21 throws for 161 yards and three TDs without a pick. Senior RB Adonis Thomas added 115 yards and one TD rushing on just nine carries.

In Week 2, Toledo gave Ohio St. fits for 60 minutes at The Horseshoe. The Rockets may have pulled the outright upset if not for giving up a 69-yard punt return for a TD with only 46 seconds left in the first half. The Buckeyes eventually captured a 27-22 win, but they never threatened to cover the number as 17½-point home favorites.

Dantin, who split time under center with sophomore Terrance Owens, played well once again. He connected on 14-of-26 passes for 155 yards and one TD without an interception. Thomas was limited to 47 rushing yards on 14 carries, but he found paydirt on a four-yard TD run that gave his team a 22-21 advantage early in the third quarter.

Toledo out-yarded OSU 338-304 but couldn’t muster any offense in the final stanza.

This will be the Rockets’ fourth game as home underdogs during Beckman’s three-year tenure. They are 2-1 ATS in the three previous situations, beating Colorado and No. Illinois outright in 2009. Dating back to 2001, Toledo is 10-4 ATS as a home underdog.

Boise St. owns a 17-10 spread record as a road favorite under Petersen, going 16-6 versus the number in such spots since 2007. The Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as double-digit road favorites.

Kick-off is slated for Friday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Also on Friday, UConn will play host to Iowa St. on ESPN2 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. The Huskies are looking to bounce back from a 24-21 loss at Vandy, while the Cyclones might be in a letdown situation after beating arch-rival Iowa 44-41 in overtime.

Florida owns an 18-9 spread record as a home favorite since 2007. The Gators, as of Wednesday night, were listed as 9½-point favorites for their SEC opener Saturday vs. Tennessee.

UT quarterback Tyler Bray, fresh off a career-high 405 passing yards in a 45-23 win over Cincinnati, will try to become the first Vol QB not named Casey Clausen to win at The Swamp since the early 1970s. Bray had four TD passes and one TD rushing against the Bearcats.

After not being able to go at Wednesday’s practice, Boston College star RB Montel Harris was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ for Saturday’s game vs. Duke. Harris, who rushed for 1,243 yards and eight TDs in 2010, has missed the Eagles’ first two games. They are 0-2 after losing to Northwestern at home before getting thumped last week at UCF.

Ole Miss RB Brandon Bolden has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for Saturday’s game against unbeaten Vanderbilt in Nashville. Bolden sat out last week’s win over Southern Illinois after suffering a leg injury in a 14-13 home loss to BYU in the season opener. Bolden had 14 TDs rushing and a 6.0 yards-per-carry average last year. The Rebels are 1½-point road favorites against the Commodores.

[Mr. IWS]

Friday’s Best MLB Bets

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (105, N/A)

All of a sudden it doesn’t sound like everything is peachy in Milwaukee’s clubhouse. On the heels of K-Rod’s comments that he wasn’t happy with his setup role, Prince Fielder came out and told everybody that this is “probably” going to be his last season with the Brewers.

Considering the team’s cap situation and the fact that he’s due to become a free agent, this isn’t shocking news, but the timing of a statement definitely is. The Brewers have been on a major slide, watching their lead in the NL Central shrink to 5.5 games ahead of Thursday’s action, so they don’t have time for this stuff.

Still, manager Doug Melvin tried to extinguish the controversy.

"If players give you the same old clichés, then they get criticized for the same old clichés," Melvin told reporters. "Both players spoke what they felt, and I respect that. I don't have a major issue with that as long as these guys go out and play the game. Nobody plays the game harder than Prince Fielder, and nobody is as big a competitor as K-Rod."

We tend to agree and against Bronson Arroyo, any team’s a good bet.

Pick: Brewers

Florida Marlins at Washington Nationals (-115, 7.5)

Don’t look now, but the Washington Nationals are on a bit of a hot streak. They beat up on the New York Mets 10-1 on Thursday to secure a four-game series sweep in the Big Apple.

Ian Desmond did most of the damage at the dish, picking up five hits and driving in three runs, while rookie Tommy Milone threw 5 2/3 solid innings to notch the first MLB win of his career.

They have now won five straight games, outscoring the opposition 26-6 over that stretch as they moved ahead of the Mets into third spot in the NL East. However, they will have their work cut out for them Friday against Florida’s Javier Vazquez. The veteran has given up just one run over his last three starts.

The Marlins have beaten up on the Nats all season and this winning streak has run its course.

Pick: Marlins

[Mr. IWS]

Friday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking

Javier Vazquez, Florida Marlins (10-11, 4.13 ERA)

There is some talk that Vazquez may call it a career after this season and if that’s true, he’s going out with a bang. The veteran has allowed just a single run over his last three starts with 20 strikeouts compared to three walks.

"He's been pitching unbelievably. And when you see a guy doing that and not getting anything out of it, as a position player we feel guilty," Florida first baseman Gaby Sanchez told reporters recently. "It's been amazing the turnaround from the beginning of the year to now. He's got his velocity back, he's doing everything out there."

James Shields Tampa Bay Rays (15-10, 2.70 ERA)

Shields already has a career-high 15 wins on the year and nearly picked up his 12th complete game in his last start. He left with one out in the ninth during a 9-1 win over Boston, giving up a solo home run and seven hits. The big righty has now allowed just three earned runs over his last four starts, including a pair of complete games over that span.

Slumping

Tim Stauffer, San Diego Padres (8-12, 3.87 ERA)

Stauffer has to be counting the days to the end of the regular season at this point. He hasn’t won since Aug. 18 and is working on a fat 9.69 ERA in three starts since then.

"Physically and mentally I feel strong and good,'' Stauffer told reporters recently. “I'm just not executing as well as I need to be. I'm just not putting guys away when I have a chance to.''

Alex White, Colorado Rockies (3-1, 6.32 ERA)

Don’t let White’s 3-1 record fool you because this guy has been awful in his four starts with Colorado. He has allowed nine home runs and has an 8.18 ERA. The Rockies have averaged 5.5 runs in his starts and they’ll need to keep that up to help him out. White gave up five homers in a 12-7 win over Cincinnati in his last start, upping his total to nine dingers allowed since coming over from Cleveland.

[Mr. IWS]

MLB Betting News and Notes Friday
Brewers Open Up Series At Cincinnati Reds
By: Evan Abrams

The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds begin a three-game series Friday night from Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. (ET).

The Brewers currently own a six-game lead in the National League Central division over the St. Louis Cardinals with exactly 13 games left on the schedule for both teams. Cincinnati goes into this series in third place in their division, a full 14 games out of first place and mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Starting for the Brewers on Friday night will be their veteran left-handed pitcher Randy Wolf (12-9, 3.44 ERA), who is 2-0 (team is 3-0 in that span) in his last three road starts. Wolf has pitched against the Reds twice this season, with the Brewers going 1-1 in those games.

Pitching for the Reds at home will be Bronson Arroyo (8-11, 5.28 ERA), who has only picked up one victory in his last 13 starts overall. Arroyo has started 10 games this season in which he has allowed five or more runs and Friday may be no different with Milwaukee’s potent offense in town.

Wolf and Arroyo faced each other back on April 3rd in Cincinnati and the Reds were able to come up with the victory, 12-3. The win came behind a stellar pitching performance by Arroyo (7 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5 K) and a real tough start from Wolf (4 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 5 K).

Milwaukee begins a 6-game road trip with this series against the Reds followed by a trip to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers finish the regular season with a 6-game home stand against the Marlins and Pirates.

Cincinnati on the other hand will be in the middle of a 10-game home stand when they face the Brewers on Friday night. The Reds will follow this three-game set against Milwaukee with three games against the last place Houston Astros.

The Reds currently lead the season series 8-5 (5-1 in Cincinnati) over Milwaukee. The Brewers are 3-14 in their last 17 meetings in Cincinnati, while Arroyo is 4-1 in his last five starts against Milwaukee.

The ‘over’ is 12-3-1 in Arroyo’s last 16 starts versus a team with a winning record and the Reds are hitting left-handed pitchers a full 12 points higher at home this season.

Friday night’s forecast shows partly cloudy skies and a pretty frigid night for baseball with a temperature of approximately 49 degrees.

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with LSU (-3-1/2) Thursday night.

Friday it's Boise State. The deficit is 2686 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo came up a whisker short of greatness last night with the Marlins in the Philly nightcap, which, coupled with the Tribe's setback in Texas, boosted the runaway red number to 2,565 reuschels.

Today, Mr. Aitch is counting on magic Wandy to put a little sunshine in his life at Wrigley -- 20 units on the 'Stros. Tonight, he expects a massive letdown from Iowa State after last week's shocker against Iowa -- 20 units on UConn.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Friday

Florida +105

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

719- 528 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one FRI: Phillies -150

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

Houston at Chicago Cubs

The Astros look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 2-7 in Matt Garza's last 9 starts in Game 1 of a series. Houston is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+140). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 16 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Houston at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 16.076; Cubs (Garza) 14.199 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-160); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Houston (+140); N/A

Game 903-904: St. Louis at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.659; Philadelphia (Worley) 16.464 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-140); 8 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140); Over

Game 905-906: Florida at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Vazquez) 14.706; Washington (Lannan) 14.986 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-115); Under

Game 907-908: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 14.867; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.863 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 9 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Over

Game 909-910: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Capuano) 13.338; Atlanta (Lowe) 16.031 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 8 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-160); Over

Game 911-912: San Francisco at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.280; Colorado (White) 15.448 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); Under

Game 913-914: Arizona at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 15.887; San Diego (Stauffer) 14.301 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-105); Over

Game 915-916: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Locke) 13.742; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.416 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-185); Under

Game 917-918: LA Angels at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Haren) 16.168; Baltimore (Hunter) 17.323 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-180); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+160); Over

Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.505; Toronto (Cecil) 15.109 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-180); Under

Game 921-922: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.235; Boston (Beckett) 14.500 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 8 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+120); Over

Game 923-924: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Humber) 13.484; Kansas City (Paulino) 15.780 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-140); Under

Game 925-926: Cleveland at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 13.556; Minnesota (Slowey) 14.502 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Over

Game 927-928: Detroit at Oakland (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 15.924; Oakland (Cahill) 15.589 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 929-930: Texas at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wilson) 17.601; Seattle (Beavan) 14.528 Dunkel Line: Texas by 3; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Texas (-190); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-190); Under

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Atlanta at Connecticut

The Dream look to take advantage of a Connecticut team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 conference semifinal games. Atlanta is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 16 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 655-656: Atlanta at Connecticut (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 116.396; Connecticut 116.498 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 158 Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 3 1/2; 164 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3 1/2); Under

Game 657-658: San Antonio at Minnesota (9:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 110.170; Minnesota 121.860 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 11 1/2; 152 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 9; 149 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-9); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's CFL Picks

Edmonton at Hamilton

The Tiger-Cats look to build on their 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 Friday games. Hamilton is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Tiger-Cats favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-5). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 16 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (9/15)

Game 291-292: Edmonton at Hamilton (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 105.472; Hamilton 114.917 Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 9 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Hamilton by 5; 50 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-5); Under