9-16-11

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA Football Game Picks

Iowa State at Connecticut

The Huskies look to take advantage of an Iowa State team that is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points. Connecticut is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4). Here are all of this week's lined games.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 16 Time Posted: 10:00 p.m. EST (9/14)

Game 103-104: Boise State at Toledo (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 114.023; Toledo 87.285 Dunkel Line: Boise State by 26 1/2; 56 Vegas Line: Boise State by 19 1/2; 58 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-19 1/2); Under

Game 105-106: Iowa State at Connecticut (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 85.052; Connecticut 90.689 Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 5 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Connecticut by 4; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4); Over

OTHER GAMES: Time Posted: 10:00 p.m. EST (9/14)

Bryant at Sacred Heart (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Bryant 51.928; Sacred Heart 37.512 Dunkel Line: Bryant by 14 1/2

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Cubs -160 over Astros

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Toledo +20 over Boise State

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Cubs -160 over Astros

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

Toledo

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Friday

Play Tampa Bay (+140) over Boston (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST

James Shields has won 4 consecutive games when pitching on a Friday and he has also won 7 of the last 9 games as an underdog of +100 to +150. James Shields has won 5 of the last 6 road games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and he is 3-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 0.71.

-----------------------------------------------------------------


Play Texas (-180) over Seattle (Bonus)

[Mr. IWS]

MLB
Write-Up


Friday, September 16

Hot pitchers
-- Cubs won last three Garza starts (2-0, 3.38).
-- Worley is 3-1, 3.14 in his last five starts.
-- Vazquez is 3-0, 0.45 in his last three starts.
-- Wolf is 6-1, 3.19 in his last nine starts.
-- Bumgarner is 4-0, 1.30 in his last four starts.
-- Miley is 3-0, 3.38 in his last four starts.

-- Haren is 2-1, 1.99 in his last three starts.
-- Sabathia is 2-1, 2.33 in his last three starts; he is 3-0, 2.59 against the Blue Jays this season.
-- Shields is 4-0, 0.79 in his last four starts. Beckett is 3-0, 3.42 in his last four starts; he left his last start Sept 5 with a sprained ankle.
-- Humber is 1-0, 1.26 in his last three starts.
-- Jimenez is 2-1, 3.12 in his last four starts.
-- Fister is 4-0, 0.98 in his last five starts.
-- Wilson is 3-0, 0.78 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Norris has a 5.40 RA in his last four starts.
-- JGarcia is 2-2, 6.35 in his last five starts.
-- Lannan is 1-5, 7.53 in his last six starts.
-- Arroyo is 0-1, 8.79 in his last three starts.
-- Lowe is 2-4, 5.14 in his last six starts. Capuano is 0-1, 5.63 in his last three starts.
-- White has an 8.59 RA in his first four starts.
-- Stauffer is 0-3, 7.58 in his last four starts.
-- Kuroda is 1-2, 6.48 in his last three starts. Locke allowed three runs in five IP in losing his first start.

-- Hunter is 1-2, 7.52 in his last five starts.
-- Cecil is 0-5, 4.78 in his last eight starts.
-- Paulino is 2-2, 5.83 in his last five starts.
-- Slowey is 0-5, 6.67 in his last five starts.
-- Cahill is 2-3, 6.35 in his last six starts.
-- Beaven is 1-3, 6.06 in his last six starts.

Totals
-- Under is 7-3 in Astros' last ten games.
-- Over is 4-1 in Cardinals' last five road games.
-- Over is 8-1-1 in Washington's last ten home games.
-- Milwaukee's last four road games stayed under total.
-- Over is 10-5-1 in Mets' last sixteen games.
-- Over is 12-4 in last sixteen games at Coors Field.
-- Over is 6-2 in last eight games at Petco Park.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in Pirates' last eleven road games.

-- Over is 11-4-1 in Angels' last sixteen road games.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten games at Rogers Centre.
-- Under is 5-2 in Tampa Bay's last seven road games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Kansas City's last eight games.
-- Under is 7-3 in Minnesota's last ten games.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in Oakland's last eleven games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Rangers' last five road games.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won seven of their last eight games. Phillies won nine of last twelve games.
-- Washington won its last five games, allowing seven runs.
-- Braves are 9-4 in their last thirteen home games.
-- Reds won their last three games, scoring 17 runs.
-- Giants won their last five games, scoring 30 runs. Colorado is 8-4 in its last twelve home games.
-- Diamondbacks won 18 of their last 22 games.

-- Angels won five of their last seven games.
-- Toronto won fouro of its last five home games.
-- Tampa Bay won nine of its twelve games.
-- Royals won their last five games, allowing eight runs.
-- Oakland is 10-6 in its last sixteen home games. Detroit had a 12-game win streak snapped last night.
-- Rangers won four of their last five games.

Cold Teams
-- Astros lost 18 of their last 23 road games. Cubs lost their last three games, allowing 17 runs.
-- Florida lost its last four games, scoring four runs.
-- Brewers lost six of their last eight games.
-- Mets lost their last six games, scoring five runs in last four.
-- Padres lost 17 of their last 20 games.
-- Pirates lost five of their last seven games. Dodgers lost four of five.

-- Orioles lost 11 of their last 18 games.
-- Bronx is 3-5 in its last eight games.
-- Red Sox lost 11 of their last 14 games.
-- White Sox won their last five games, allowing 39 runs.
-- Minnesota lost 18 of its last 22 home games. Indians lost eight of last ten games overall.
-- Mariners lost four of their last five games.

[Mr. IWS]

EasyBaseballBetting
Our systems say to go for:

Diamondbacks (+106),
Blue Jays (+164),
Reds (+102),
Cardinals (+130),
Mariners (+178),
White Sox (+132),
Twins (+120),
Nationals (-115).

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Boise State Broncos vs. Toledo Rockets
This week’s Friday night lights telecast takes us to the new and improved Glass Bowl where the Toledo Rockets will look to stick within the lofty pointspread against QB Kellen Moore and the 4th ranked Boise State Broncos; kick-off is slated for 8:00 ET on ESPN.
The Broncos were out of the national spotlight last week with Coach Chris Petersen’s squad having the week off after taking care of business against the Georgia Bulldogs in their season opener. Not even the quasi home field advantage the Dawgs had in the Georgia Dome was enough to topple the Broncos who escaped Atlanta with the 35-21 road win and cover (-3). The victory improved Boise State to an impressive 28-5 SU as a visitor, including bowls, the L/5 seasons. Their high powered offense had no problem ripping through an SEC defense as Moore threw for 261 yards and three TDs, with the combo of RBs Doug Martin and DJ Harper combining to rush for 101 yards and a pair of TDs. The Broncos are 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS their L/12 non-conference match-ups.
With 18 starters back from last year squad that went 8-5 SU and was barely nipped in the Little Caesar’s Bowl by Florida international, the Toledo Rockets are expected to be a MAC Championship contender this season. Coach Tim Beckman’s kids proved its weight in salt last week when it went into the Horseshoe and gave the Ohio State Buckeyes all they could ask for and more as enormous 17.5-point underdogs. The Rockets led 8-7 and 15-7 before going into the break down six, but retook the lead minutes into the 3rd quarter before ultimately giving up the final and deciding TD late in the 3rd. The two headed QB attack of Austin Dantin and Terrance Owens performed admirably combining to throw for 292 yards, but the ground attack was stymied. This unit will have to hit on all cylinders throughout the entirety of this game if it expects to keep up with the offensive dynamo that is Boise State.
These teams battled on the “Smurf Turf” for the first time last season where the Broncos simply creamed the Rockets; Boise was up by 50 heading into the 4th and ultimately came out on top by a 57-14 final tally to just barely cover the whopping 38-point closing spread. Boise State has been an ATM machine for its backers for a number of years now: 7-1 ATS L/8 September games, 17-8 ATS L/25 when favored, 8-3 ATS L/11 as road chalk, and 3-0 ATS L/3 vs. the MAC. As for Toledo, it’s 7-3 ATS in L/10 September match-ups and 4-1 ATS L/5 off a SU loss, but just 1-5 ATS the L/6 when getting 16 or more points. The ‘over’ has cashed at a 5-1 clip in Toledo’s L/6 home games as well as the L/6 times it went off the board dogged.
PICK: BOISE/TOLEDO OVER

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions
Kevin

NEW YORK METS @ ATLANTA BRAVES - BRAVES TO WIN (-153)

(Note: I'm risking 3.06 units to win 2 units)

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Brewers -115

NCAAF

50* UConn -4

[Mr. IWS]

WEST CAPPER

3*** Rangers (-190)
1* Royals (-120)
1* Braves (-140)

[Mr. IWS]

Bookie Killer

10 unit - Detroit Tigers -125 (Our top rated play)

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

Tampa Bay +130 over BOSTON Pinnacle
Rays have all the momentum going into game two of this series. They’ve cut the deficit to three games after last night’s 9-2 win and have won an important six straight games this month over the Red Sox while outscoring them 41-12. Ouch. The pitching matchup might also favor the Rays and if it doesn’t, it’s damn close. Josh Beckett is a big game pitcher that’s having another great year, however, he’s been off for two weeks after spraining his ankle and a two-week layoff this time of year can’t be a good thing. Meanwhile James Shields is the on a serious roll. Shields’ has allowed three runs over his last 34.1 innings while winning his last four starts. He has 210 k’s in 226 innings, a 2.70 ERA and a WHIP of 1.01. In 30 starts, Shields has been masterful in 24 of them. Boston certainly has the better offense but they’re feeling some pressure, they’re slumping badly with 12 losses in last 16 games and the Rays are coming hard. Play: Tampa Bay +130 (Risking 2 units).

KANSAS CITY –114 over Chicago Pinnacle
One really has to wonder what will motivate the White Sox to do anything but get this season over with ASAP. Off all the teams in the majors, the South Side is the least motivated of them all. Chicago is coming off a series against Detroit in which they were buried and followed that up with a 7-2 loss last night here. They’ve now lost five straight and 11 of 16 while the Royals have won five straight. K.C. is having fun and they’re enjoying coming to the park and that gives them a huge edge over a completely uninterested South Side club. Philip Humber is 2-0 in his last two starts with 13 k’s and no walks after a brief stint on the DL. However, he faced the Twinkies and Indians. Prior to that he surrendered four runs or more in five straight in which Chicago lost them all. Felipe Paulino has three wins on the year. Incredible for a guy that deserves better. Paulino is coming off an 11-strikeout, zero walk performance against Seattle. The game before that he walked six in 4.1 innings. That was uncharacteristic of Paulino, as he’s walked just 48 batters all year in 122 frames. Increased groundball % in 2011 is another positive step in trying to ascertain how projectable Paulino really is. His xERA of 3.70 is much better than is actual ERA of 4.49. He's already a solid mid-to-upper tier starter on skills alone and he could easily shine again here against this unmotivated guest. Play: Kansas City –114 (Risking 2.28 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Friday's Best NCAACFB Bets

Boise State Broncos at Toledo Rockets (+20, 59.5)

The No. 4 team in the land, the Boise State Broncos are going to be put to the test in NCAA football betting action when they hit the road to the Glass Bowl to take on the Toledo Rockets.

The Broncos are looking at this weekend as one that really could be astounding for them as long as they can survive this game. After all, a slew of teams ranked in the Top 10 in the land are going to be on the road, all of which are going to need to lose (and some of which might have to lose twice) for them to get to the National Championship Game. Boise State was more or less forgotten about last week when it was on its bye, but this week, it gets thrust right back into the national spotlight with this Friday night game on ESPN2. If it is as impressive this time around as it was against the Georgia Bulldogs, this will be a cakewalk. Though the Dawgs are falling apart at the seams right now, any time you can beat up a team from the SEC in a de facto road game, you’ve done your job, especially when you’re in the Mountain West. QB Kellen Moore threw for 261 yards against Georgia in the opener, and he is going to hope for better against a team that he helped drop 57 points on last year on the Smurf Turf.

Just in case Boise State wanted its wakeup call for this one, it got it last week while it watched the Rockets go into the Horseshoe and push the Ohio State Buckeyes to the limit. Sure, Ohio State probably doesn’t have as strong of a team as the Broncos do this year, but if that’s what Toledo can do on the road, it could have a field day in the Glass Bowl. QB Austin Dantin is one of the up and coming players in the MAC this year, as the sophomore has thrown for 316 yards and four scores without tossing a pick thus far on the year. The question is whether the defense, which allowed 22 points to New Hampshire to start off the campaign, has the ability to slow down these Broncos, especially knowing that the last time they played on the road against a non-BCS team, they were beaten 34-31 in overtime and will be eager to make amends for that. However, there is definitely something to be said about the fact that the Rockets were crushed 57-14 last year in Boise, and they would love nothing more than to prove that they belong.

Boise State Broncos @ Toledo Rockets Pick: Week in and week out, it feels like the Broncos are the most square play on the board. However, they are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games, most of which have come as big favorites. In this one though, we’re going with the Rockets. No, we don’t think that they can win this game, but they definitely can make this interesting for awhile. Take the points.

PICK: Toledo +20