9-18-11

[Mr. IWS]

Hilton Contest Top 5 selections. (Last weeks record for top 5 was 2-3)

1Dallas (Top play)
2Buff
3Balt
4Atl
5Wash

[Mr. IWS]

DCI

Sunday, September 18, 2011

DETROIT 28, Kansas City 15
Baltimore 26, TENNESSEE 12
INDIANAPOLIS 27, Cleveland 15
BUFFALO 23, Oakland 22
Tampa Bay vs. MINNESOTA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Chicago 25, NEW ORLEANS 24
N.Y. JETS 32, Jacksonville 13
PITTSBURGH 32, Seattle 16
WASHINGTON 29, Arizona 14
Green Bay 36, CAROLINA 9
Dallas vs. SAN FRANCISCO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NEW ENGLAND 33, San Diego 22
Cincinnati 28, DENVER 20
Houston 23, MIAMI 22
Philadelphia 26, ATLANTA 24

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

ATLANTA +110 over Philadelphia

The “Dream Team” went into St. Louis last week and won handily. Are we supposed to be impressed with anything other than Michael Vick’s ability to run? If so, we’re not. Vick went 14-42 for 167 yards through the air and that’s without a lot of pressure by the Rams. They racked up 236 yards on the ground and that was the difference. The 31-13 final was not an accurate account of what happened on the field. The Rams receivers dropped pass after pass after pass. St. Louis racked up 154 yards on the ground and they out-gained the Eagles through the air. Everything went the Eagles way. While it’s still early, the Falcons need to turn things around before this trickle turns into a stream. Despite a poor start for the Falcons, this is still a step up for the visitor. Perhaps Atlanta was looking ahead to this game or perhaps they just weren’t ready for the opener. What we do know is they’ll be ready this week. Quality teams that get embarrassed often have a huge bounce back game and the Falcons are a quality team. With Matt Ryan behind center, Atlanta has won 20 of past 22 regular season home games. With an improved pass rush, a bruising running game and an opportunity to unwelcome Michael Vick back to Atlanta, this one becomes a huge statement game for a quality host on prime time TV. Philly is not as good as the media makes them out to be. Play Atlanta +110 (Risking 2 units).


TENNESSEE +6½ over Baltimore

The Ravens wanted that game last week against Pittsburgh badly. They were sick of losing to the Steelers and even sicker about hearing about it all the time. They put all that to rest and they’ve been reading about how good they are all week. It would be difficult to knock the Ravens after their dismantling of rival Steelers, nor will we try. However, Baltimore ’s intensity level for that game will not be applied here and that affords us a chance to back the less popular choice. The Titans looked awful in week one loss to Jacksonville. Awful is an understatement. Granted, the Titans are no great shakes but they were not quite ready with Chris Johnson missing most of camp and Matt Hasselbeck and new coaching staff playing first real game together with new team. Johnson had just 15 touches last week. Hasselbeck now has a game under his belt and we’re going to see a different Hasselbeck than the one we saw last week. Hasselbeck had great success in Seattle with lesser talent than he has here. He found a rhythm in the 2nd half of his team’s loss last week and that could carry over against the Ravens thinning secondary. Expect a close one or a straight up Titans win. We see a +6½ at Sportsinteraction while most have this at +5½ so if you don’t have a SIA account, we would still play it at +5½. Play: Tennessee +6½ (Risking 2.1 units).


San Diego +6½ over NEW ENGLAND

6½ points? For real? While New England’s offense can be downright scary, its defense can be frightening but not in the same way. Miami’s Chad Henne threw for 416 yards against this secondary and the Dolphins were a half-yard away from making that game very interesting with six minutes to go. What will the league’s top passer from a year ago, Philip Rivers, do with his full arsenal running amok? Let’s also not ignore that Monday night game was played in extreme heat where even the refs were cramping up. How inflated is this price? Well, let’s go back to the NFL’s season opener in which Green Bay, considered the best team in the league, were just a 4½-point choice over New Orleans. Is this a bigger mismatch than that? The line says it is but we beg to differ. New England remains a public team and thus, price gets inflated. That is especially true after the Pats play pitch and catch on national television. But this is a top-ranked Chargers defense that has capable personnel and a team as a whole that is not intimidated by its host. Chargers can win outright. Play: San Diego +6½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).


INDIANAPOLIS +115 over Cleveland

Let’s say you’re a member of the Colts. Imagine waking up Monday morning and seeing that you’re a dog at home to the Browns. That’s insulting, not to mention motivating. Yes, the Colts were manhandled on the road, against a talented and motivated divisional foe. But Cleveland lost at home to the Bengals and while the Colts were expected to lose as a nine-point pooch, the Brownies were expected to win as a 6½-point choice. Had this game been played in week one, the Colts would’ve been a four-point favorite but week two lines are largely based on week one results. The Colts still have weapons with two excellent deep threats in the passing game and a running back in Joseph Addai that is capable of a big game. Indy also has a tremendous pass-rush tandem with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis and that’s potentially big trouble for a young Colt McCoy. Meanwhile, the Brownies have no pass rush whatsoever and given time Kerry Collins is an accurate passer. A banged up Browns team with low morale and less talent does not warrant this tag. Cleveland favored at this venue is ludicrous. Play: Indianapolis +115 (Risking 2 units).


Dallas –3 +100 over SAN FRANCISCO

It’s not customary for us to lay road points and if we lose this game, shame on us. What we know for sure is that the Boys have to bring it this week after giving one away against a quality Jets club last Sunday night. Tony Romo keeps finding ways to lose but he’s one of the most talented QB’s in the game and he’s heads above water better than that stiff Alex Smith. Dallas played a great game last week in New York. They were moving the chains, they played good defense and everything was in place for a win until two late turnovers, both by Romo. Romo can’t let that happen again. What we see on paper is another blown game by Romo and a 16-point San Fran win over Seattle. What you may or may not know is that the 49ers 16-point win was the most misleading score of the week. Seattle had 18 first downs to the 49ers 12. Seattle passed for 155 yards while San Fran passed for 124. When Seattle outplays you at home you’ve got bigger problems than a bad QB. Apparently the new head coach doesn’t see the easily distinguishable connection between Alex Smith and the unemployment line. San Fran is unwatchable. Their offense is about as exciting as a quilt festival. The Boys are far superior in every way and it’s one thing to come in here after a big win but that’s not the case. The Cowboys come in here after a bad loss and suddenly they’re in jeopardy of starting the year 0-2. That’s not going to happen against the worst team in football. Play: Dallas –3 +100 (Risking 2 units).


Survivor Pick

DETROIT over Kansas City:

The Chiefs were down by 14 points to the Buffalo Bills by the end of the first quarter last week and ended up having to play catch-up football. They can’t. The Chiefs have injuries, inside turmoil, coaching changes and no Charlie Weis as Matt Cassels QB coach. The Lions are truly a contender. They’re loaded offensively and they just keep getting better. Detroit now opens at home and they’ll be as motivated as ever to keep the excitement in Detroit rolling right along. KC can’t score nor can they defend and they’ll probably lose by four TD’s.


Raiders (1-0) at Bills (1-0)

One of only four games that feature undefeated teams. Who woulda thunk it? While the Bills do have some legit talent, this may not be a good match up for them. Raiders like to pound the rock and Buffalo’s run defense is a liability. Da Rrrrrraiders hang around here. TAKING: RAIDERS +3 +105 Pin


Bears (1-0) at Saints (0-1)

What will it take for folks to buy into the Bears? They won the NFC North last year while starting this campaign off with an impressive dismissal of a formidable Falcons bunch. Still, oddsmakers feel the Saints are worthy of spotting a full touchdown. Prove it. Bears will dedicate game to Brian Urlacher’s mom and will play extra hard for their beloved teammate. TAKING: BEARS +6½ bet365


Cardinals (1-0) at Redskins (1-0)

It scares us when a game looks too easy and this one more than qualifies. Washington ’s sturdy defense is quite capable of stopping an unrefined Arizona offense. More importantly, how bad is the Cardinal defense if neophyte Cam Newton can carve them up for 422 yards through the air? TAKING: REDSKINS –3½


Chiefs (0-1) at Lions (1-0)

Don’t expect letdowns by this Detroit team anytime soon. After suffering through an epic 4-40 drought, this emerging bunch has suddenly won a legitimate five straight regular season games. Conversely, the Chiefs are a mess with no real remedy in sight. TAKING: LIONS –8½


Seahawks (0-1) at Steelers (0-1)

Seahawks are dreadful but still can’t pull the trigger on a Steelers team that lost by 28 points and are now being asked to spot in excess of two touchdowns. The Steelers play the NFC West this year, which subconsciously has them easing up at times like this. TAKING: SEAHAWKS +14½


Packers (1-0) at Panthers (0-0)

The champs looked unstoppable in opener. They’ll have had 10 days rest prior to facing a rebuilding team with a rookie quarterback. So how do we endorse the doggie here? Simple. We hope the Packers are overlooking this one in anticipation of a trip to Chicago next week. TAKING: PANTHERS +9½


Buccaneers (0-1) at Vikings (0-1)

It’s official. Minnesota is where old quarterbacks go to die. The Bucs may not be ready to compete at the next level but they can certainly hold their own against riffraff like the Vikings. Minnesota is old and lacks an identity. Tampa has played well on the road with nine covers in past 10 away. Better team is taking points. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +3


Texans (0-0) at Dolphins (0-0)

If it looks like a trap and smells like a trap it usually is a trap. Texans known to disappointment after big wins and after clobbering Manning-less rival, same could happen here. Miami ’s defense is better than it showed versus Patriots last week while offense feeling better about their previously pedestrian unit. TAKING: DOLPHINS +3


Jaguars (1-0) at Jets (1-0)

One can be a force while the other is a fraud. The Jaguars were fortunate to defeat the Titans in opener. Jacksonville won’t have the luxury of playing at home or against a quarterback guiding a new team. Without a pass rush to contend with, Jets offense gets time to exploit subpar visitor. TAKING: NY JETS –9½


Bengals (1-0) at Broncos (0-1)

John Fox likes to run. RB Knowshon Moreno had eight carries for 22 yards while Willis McGahee ran four times for 3 yards. Without a passing game to offset this ineptitude, we can’t rationalize backing Denver as chalk, especially against a decent Cincinnati defense. TAKING: BENGALS +4½

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Tampa Bay Rays -135 over the Boston Red Sox

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Chicago Bears +7 over the New Orleans Saints

[Mr. IWS]

sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Chicago Bears +7 over the New Orleans Saints

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

719- 529 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Sun Det Lions -7 1/2 16-4 run

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Notre Dame Saturday.

Sunday it's the Packers. The deficit is 2586 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo tumbled deeper into his sinkhole last night when he hit with Oklahoma but missed with Michi gan State and the Tigers to move the red digits to 3,185 barkers.

Today, it looks like easy pickin's with the Ravens -- 20 units on Baltimore to waltz past Tennessee. Also, his "don't ask Dontrelle" policy is in effect, and the Price is right in Boston -- 20 units apiece on the Brewers and Rays.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

Astros +135

[Mr. IWS]

Today's CFL Picks

Winnipeg at Montreal

The Bluebombers look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Winnipeg is the pick (+8) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by only 5. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+8). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (9/15)

Game 297-298: Winnipeg at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 112.821; Montreal 117.881 Dunkel Line: Montreal by 5; 50 Vegas Line: Montreal by 8; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+8); Under

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Indiana at New York

The Dream look to close out the series and build on their 7-3-1 ATS record in their last 11 home games. Atlanta is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-5). Here are all of today's picks

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 663-664: Connecticut at Atlanta (3:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 111.950; Atlanta 120.396 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 163 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 5; 167 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-5); Under

Game 665-666: Minnesota at San Antonio (5:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 115.023; San Antonio 115.105 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 153 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3; 149 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

NY Yankees at Toronto

The Blue Jays look to build on their 7-1 record in Brandon Morrow's last 8 starts in Game 3 of a series. Toronto is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 18 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Greinke) 15.681; Cincinnati (Willis) 14.049 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-170); 9 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-170); Over

Game 903-904: Florida at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Hand) 14.273; Washington (Wang) 15.419 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-130); Under

Game 905-906: NY Mets at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 15.186; Atlanta (Beachy) 14.182 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 8 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+160); Over

Game 907-908: Houston at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 14.642; Cubs (Dempster) 15.632 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-150); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-150); N/A

Game 909-910: San Francisco at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.667; Colorado (Rogers) 16.060 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-160); 9 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+140); Under

Game 911-912: Arizona at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Saunders) 16.058; San Diego (Harang) 15.130 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Over

Game 913-914: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Lincoln) 13.673; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.485 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-155); Under

Game 915-916: St. Louis at Philadelphia (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.072; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.052 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 917-918: NY Yankees at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Garcia) 15.427; Toronto (Morrow) 16.187 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Under

Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.870; Boston (Wakefield) 14.865 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-135); Over

Game 921-922: LA Angels at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.396; Baltimore (Simon) 16.095 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-200); Over

Game 923-924: Cleveland at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 13.990; Minnesota (Pavano) 14.067 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Under

Game 925-926: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 13.328; Kansas City (Chen) 15.935 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Over

Game 927-928: Detroit at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.748; Oakland (Moscoso) 15.764 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 7 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-175); Under

Game 929-930: Texas at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 15.853; Seattle (Hernandez) 16.277 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 7 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-110); Under

[Mr. IWS]

Sitxth Sense

BEST BETS

YTD 4-3 +2.10%

3% ARIZONA +3.5
3% TAMPA BAY +3 Must get at least +3
3% CLEVELAND -2
3% NEW ENGLAND -6.5
3% CINCINNATI +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

RICK NEEDHAM

Packers (-10.5) at Panthers Sept. 18, 1:00, FOX

Cam Newton was impressive in his debut as the starting quarterback of the Carolina Panthers, but it still ended in a bittersweet defeat in the opener. Now the rookie will try and lead the Panthers past the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers for his first professional victory, when the Packers travel to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte for a week two NFC clash. Newton, the former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall pick in last year’s NFL draft, threw for 422 yards and two scores in his NFL debut but the Panthers still wound up short in the Arizona desert, 28-21. But after performing better than most people expected, including poise and a knowledge of the playbook he has yet to show in his short stint as a pro, Newton and the Panthers are looking for a big splash like the kind of one an upset over the Packers in his home debut would create. GB picked up right where they left off last February in their season opening, 42-34, victory over the New Orleans Saints, with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense looking nearly unstoppable. But before we crown them back-to-back champs there are plenty of flaws on defense for the Packers to work on, and the offense sputtered a little in the second half and nearly let the Saints back into the game, so don’t expect the Pack to be gracious guests in Bank of America Stadium on Sunday.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas aren’t giving the Panthers much of a chance to spring an upset in this game, setting the opening point spread with the Packers as 10-point favorites on the road. So far the bettors going to the window agree, since there is enough early money coming in on Green Bay that it has moved the number up to 10.5-points at some of the offshore sportsbooks on the Web. The over/under total opened at 45.5 and has seen a bunch of early line movement in both directions, dropping as low as 45 at a few sportsbooks and as high as 46.5 at a few more, so shop around if you want to move the total a full point in your direction. Offensively the Panthers had a lot of bright spots despite the loss in the opener. They did tally 26 first downs, nearly twice as many as the Cardinals in the game. They also welcomed Steve Smith back to being relevant, as the veteran receiver “broke loose” for 178 yards and two touchdowns. But the Packers best defense is its offense, which looked in post-season form in the opener. After racing out to a 28-17 halftime lead the Packers offense did lose focus in the third quarter a little, but that may have been due to the blitzing style of the Saints defense, something Carolina might try and copy this weekend. The Panthers defense will try and contain Rodgers better than they contained Kevin Kolb of Arizona last week. Kolb was effective (309 yards, 2 TD) due to the fact he was not pressured very much (2 sacks), something the must get on Rodgers or he will pick them apart with his crew of receivers on the perimeter. It’s been a few years since these two have met on the gridiron, with the Panthers winning the last time they met in 2008 in a 35-31 shootout. The Packers outgained the Panthers 448-to-298 in the game, but they just couldn’t contain DeAngelo Williams who had four touchdown runs in the contest.

All told the Packers hold the edge in the series, winning six of the last 10 games straight up, while holding a slim 5-3-1 ATS advantage at the window for bettors. The over has been profitable of late too, cashing in for the last three games and in six of the last 10 as well (over is 6-3-1 since 1997). The Packers do seem to like Charlotte though, as they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six visits to play in Carolina. The Packers are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite as well, giving bettors plenty of trends to follow if they so choose. The under wager is also a trend play this week, going 9-2 in the Packers last 11 games on the road and 4-0-1 in the last five games the Panthers were 10-point underdogs. In fact, the Panthers have gone under in 35 of their last 52 home games, a nearly 70 percent clip for those of you scoring at home (67.3%).

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: Double digit home dog and a team that played well on the road last week? Gimme those points! I'll TAKE THE PANTHERS to beat the spread!