9-26-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

Pointwise Phones

3* Redskins

[Mr. IWS]

DCI

Monday, September 26, 2011
DALLAS 27, Washington 20

[Mr. IWS]

Doc Sports

3 Dallas

[Mr. IWS]

NFL Week 3

Redskins (2-0) @ Cowboys (1-1) - Romo showed major guts in leading comeback win last week with busted rib/punctured lung, now he faces rival Redskins in Dallas home opener. Since 2004, Dallas is 4-12-1 vs spread as home favorite in divisional games. Cowboys won four of last five in series, with three of four wins by 4 or less points. Redskins lost four of last five visits to this site, with only one loss by more than five points. Four of last five series totals were 24 or less. Dallas is 9-12 in last 21 games as home favorites; they’re 9-7 in games following a win. Redskin defense allowed only 4-19 conversions on 3rd down, as Washington won field position in both wins, by 7-8 yards; they’ve got seven sacks and had defensive TD that put them ahead against Giants. Since 1988, Week 3 home favorites who played on road first two weeks are 15-33 vs spread; Week 3 road underdogs who played first two games at home are 34-22-1. One-dimensional Cowboys have 753 passing yards, only 109 on the ground.

[Mr. IWS]

Redskins at Cowboys: What Bettors Need to Know

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 45.5)

THE STORY: Tony Romo shouldn't be feeling confident enough to book a reservation in the penthouse suite yet, but at least he's out of the outhouse as the Dallas Cowboys prepare for their home opener against bitter division rival Washington on Monday night. Romo returned from a fractured rib and tiny tear in his lung to rally the Cowboys to a 27-24 overtime win at San Francisco last week. The performance helped blot out the memory of two killer turnovers in a season-opening loss to the New York Jets. The unbeaten Redskins are the surprise leaders in the NFC East but are venturing on the road for the first time.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2-0): Washington erased an eight-point deficit in the final 5 ½ minutes to overcome Arizona 22-21 last week for its first 2-0 start since the 2007 season. Rex Grossman, who brashly predicted Washington is the team to beat in the NFC East, had thrown for 596 yards and four touchdowns. Tim Hightower and rookie Roy Helu combined to rush for 170 yards on 30 carries as the Redskins held the ball for 38 ½ minutes. TE Fred Davis has averaged 17.4 yards on 11 receptions. Defensively, safety LaRon Landry (hamstring) is expected to make his season debut for Washington, which has registered seven sacks.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (1-1): Romo came off the bench to ignite a fourth-quarter rally that prevented a second straight 0-2 start. He has thrown for 342 and 345 yards in the first two games. Romo did not practice Thursday but was fitted for a protective vest Wednesday. If he plays, Romo could be without his top two receivers. Miles Austin (hamstring), who caught three TD passes last week, has already been ruled out and Dez Bryant (thigh) is questionable. In addition, RB Felix Jones has a separated shoulder. The Cowboys top the NFL in sacks with 10, led by league leader DeMarcus Ware’s 4.0.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Cowboys own an NFL-high 42 wins on Monday Night Football, but they have split 14 meetings with Washington, which is seeking its first 3-0 start since the 2007 season.

2. Romo holds a franchise record with a TD pass in 20 straight games for Dallas, which has lost both its home openers since Cowboys Stadium opened in 2009.

3. “I want to get a chance to put my helmet on whatever’s hurt. Romo’s ribs – I’m going to be asking for some corner blitzes. If I know Felix Jones’ shoulder’s hurt. … I’m definitely going to try to hit him up high. If you know something’s wrong with an opponent, you’re going to try to target in on that. We’re going to try to definitely get as many hats on that team as possible.” – Redskins CB DeAngelo Hall on attacking Dallas’ injured players.

TRENDS:

The Redskins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 roadies.

The Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records and 7-2-1 in their last 10 games overall.

The under is 7-2 in the Redskins' last nine games overall while the over is 9-0 in the Cowboys' last nine home games.

LINE MOVEMENT

Most books kept this game off the board because of the uncertain status of Dallas QB Tony Romo. Vegas and offshore sportsbooks started opening the line over the weekend as it became more apparent Romo would play. The MGM/Mirage has Dallas as a 5.5-point favorite while the Hilton lists the home side as 6.5-point chalk. The total is between 45.5 and 46.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 27, Redskins 17. Even with all the injuries, the Cowboys should be able to move the ball and outscore Washington.

[Mr. IWS]

MNF - Redskins at Cowboys
By Kevin Rogers

The NFC East usually sees plenty of storylines week in and week out, but it was turned up this week with Tony Romo and Michael Vick's injuries. Romo is expected to start on Monday night when the 1-1 Cowboys host the 2-0 Redskins, as the quarterback looks to capitalize on the dramatic comeback victory at San Francisco last Sunday.

The roles flipped around in the span of seven days after Jason Garrett's club blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter of a Week 1 loss to the Jets, as the Cowboys rallied from a 10-point deficit at Candlestick Park. Romo suffered bruised ribs and a punctured lung, but led Dallas on two scoring drives to force overtime, while connecting on a key 77-yard pass to Jesse Holley to set up the winning field goal. The Cowboys pushed as three-point favorites, bailing out Dallas backers when it looked like all hope with lost with Romo's injury.

Washington has turned into one of the league's early surprises after being picked by many to finish in the cellar of the NFC East. The Redskins are 2-0 following home victories over the Giants and Cardinals, capped off by overcoming a late 21-13 deficit in a 22-21 triumph against Arizona. Mike Shanahan's team failed to cover as four-point favorites, as the Redskins' offense ranks 11th in the league through two weeks by posting 393.5 yards/game (Dallas ranks fourth at 431 yards/game).

Past Romo's internal injuries, the Cowboys are dealing with the bumps and bruises of running back Felix Jones (shoulder) and wide receiver Dez Bryant (quad). Both Jones and Bryant are expected to play on Monday night, as the former Oklahoma State standout missed last week's win at San Francisco. Miles Austin is unlikely to play for the Cowboys with a hamstring injury, as the receiver hauled in nine passes for 143 yards and three touchdowns against the 49ers.

The Redskins covered two of three road games against division foes in Shanahan's first season as head coach, including a 33-30 loss at Dallas as 9 ½-point 'dogs. Washington compiled a 5-2 ATS record when receiving points on the road last season, while going 9-3-1 ATS since 2009 as an away 'dog.

Dallas isn't exactly the best team to back as a home favorite, putting together a 1-5 ATS mark last season, including 0-3 ATS record with Romo under center. The offense clicked in those three losses to the Bears, Titans, and Giants in 2010, but the defense was shredded by allowing an average of 34 ppg. The 'over' hit in all eight games at Cowboys Stadium, while cashing in 14 of the last 15 overall since Week 4 of last season.

America's Team is just 1-5 ATS since 2006 under the Monday night lights, including a 41-35 home loss to the Giants last season as 3½-point favorites. That defeat sent Dallas to 1-5 as Romo's season ended with a broken collarbone in the first half. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in this stretch against NFC East opponents, while facing Washington on Monday night for the first time since 2005. That loss still stings Cowboys fans after blowing a late 13-0 lead in a 14-13 setback to the rival Redskins as six-point favorites.

Washington's record against division foes on Monday night isn't any better with three double-digit defeats over the previous two seasons, including an embarrassing 59-28 whitewashing by the Eagles in 2010. The last time the Redskins were victorious on Monday night was in 2007 as Washington won at Philadelphia, 20-12 as seven-point underdogs.

The Cowboys are listed between 4½ and 5-point favorites, as the line will stabilize once the status of Romo, Jones, and Bryant becomes clearer. The total is set at 45 ½ as the game will kick off at 8:30 PM EST from Cowboys Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN .

[Mr. IWS]

DOUBLE DRAGON NFL

REDSKINS +4 at cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Monday's Best NFL Bet

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5, 45.5)

Monday Night Football betting action heads to Arlington this week for the home opener for the Dallas Cowboys against their hated rivals, the Washington Redskins.

Could the Skins really end up moving to 3-0 in this game? There’s a distinct possibility of that happening, and if that’s the case, playoff fever will be striking our nation’s capitol in a heartbeat. Washington hasn’t played the prettiest football in the world to start off the year, and wins against the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants isn’t the most impressive slate ever either, but wins are wins in this league. This is the first time that QB Rex Grossman is going to be starting on the road this year though, and it really could be a difficult start against a Dallas team that is surely going to be bringing a whole heck of a lot of pressure off of the edge with multiple man blitzes at all times. Still, Grossman has played well this year, throwing for 596 yards and four TDs against two picks for a rock solid 90.6 QB rating. That added to the running game with RB Tim Hightower and rookie RB Roy Helu, who is looking to get more and more playing time as the season wears on, is a formula that just might work for Head Coach Mike Shanahan.

betonline.comThe injury bug has bitten the Cowboys and bitten them hard. QB Tony Romo is probably the most notable injury to watch over the course of the next several days, as he has a punctured lung and a broken rib. Whether he decides to go or not this week is going to be up to him and his pain tolerance level from the sound of it, but it also sounds like this is a situation that won’t totally be settled until game time. QB Stephen McGee was picked back up this week and will be put on the active roster after the Cowboys only used two quarterbacks last week. On top of all of that, WR Miles Austin, fresh off of a three TD game against the San Francisco 49ers, has a hamstring injury that will keep him out for the next three weeks, while WR Dez Bryant is still up in the air with his thigh injury. RB Felix Jones had to come out of last week’s game with a shoulder injury, but he has improved throughout the week and is expected to give it a go. Dallas has to pick up its intensity defensively, as both the Niners and the New York Jets were able to score points in bunches against this season. As the season progresses though, expect to see better things, as DC Rob Ryan is going to get the best possible out of this unit.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The Hilton has opened this game at Dallas -6.5, presumably assuming that Romo is going to play. The game is off the board everywhere else. That being said, the underdog is 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings in this series, and though we wouldn’t be shocked to see Dallas win this game, even if it was QB Jon Kitna calling the shots, we do think that Washington makes this one very, very entertaining the whole way.

PICK: Washington +6.5

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Detroit Tigers Tune Up For Playoffs Vs Indians
By Evan Abrams


Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers (-140, 8)

The Detroit Tigers open up their final home series of the regular season Monday evening against the second-place Cleveland Indians. The game is scheduled to start at 7:05 p.m. (ET) from Comerica Park.

The Tigers have defeated the Indians seven straight times and nine of their last 12 going into this series Monday.

Starting for Cleveland will be the ace of the pitching staff, Ubaldo Jimenez (10-12, 4.52 overall and 4-3, 4.62 with Indians). The Indians are 5-5 in Ubaldo’s 10 starts since being traded from the Colorado Rockies at the end of July.

Jimenez has faced the Tigers three times as a Cleveland Indian and once as a member of the Rockies this season. Ubaldo is 2-2 in those four starts, with his most recent road start versus the Tigers being his worst start of the season by far (3 1/3 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 4 K).

Ubaldo is winless in three starts in his career at Comerica Park, allowing 15 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings with a WHIP of over two.

The Tigers' 3-4-5 hitters – Delmon Young, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez – are hitting a combined .404 career batting average (17-for-42) versus Jimenez.

Pitching for the Tigers in this American League Central series will be recently acquired right-handed starter Doug Fister (10-13, 2.94 overall and 7-1, 2.02 with Tigers). Fister was traded from the Seattle Mariners right before the trade deadline at the end of July.

Fister has won four consecutive starts dating back to September 1 and has not lost a start since August 14 at Baltimore. The Tigers have won eight of the 10 games in which Fister has started for them.

Fister has allowed only five walks and struck out a total of 48 batters in his last 62 1/3 innings pitched since the beginning of August.

Cleveland shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is questionable for Monday’s game versus the Tigers. Cabrera left Saturday’s game with a right elbow contusion. The Indians also lost outfielder Trevor Crowe for the remainder of the season just two days ago. Crowe left the September 24th game against the Twins with a shoulder strain.

The ‘over’ is 3-0 in Ubaldo’s last three starts overall, while the ‘under’ is 5-1 in Fister’s last six starts.

Monday’s weather forecast in the Motor City shows a high probability of scattered thunderstorms and an evening temperature in the low-50s.

[Mr. IWS]

Monday's Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Doug Fister, Detroit Tigers (10-13, 2.94 ERA)

Fister will be the team’s No. 2 starter in the playoffs and he deserves the spot behind Verlander. Since coming over from the Mariners, Fister is 6-1 with a 2.12 ERA in 59 1/3 innings. Despite a fastball that tops out in the high 80s, the righty has 46 strikeouts in 50 1/3 innings with the Tigers.

"I've never thrown hard," Fister told reporters. "When I have tried to focus on getting strikeouts, it doesn't work for me. So I still take the mentality that I'm going to try to make them hit it, and hopefully, the right contact comes out of it."

Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals (13-7, 3.45 ERA)

The Cardinals have won each of Garcia’s last four starts and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of those outings. All four runs the Mets scored with him on the hill last week were unearned and he also struck out five batters over 7 2/3 innings.

SLUMPING

Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins (0-7, 6.54 ERA)

Kevin Slowey had a no-hitter going into the sixth inning in his last outing, doing his best to pick up his first win of the season. Then everything fell apart again. He gave up five runs before getting the hook after 6/23 innings and has now allowed 16 runs over his last three starts.

"I think every win is important, not just for me, but for this team," Slowey told reporters. "I'm not going out there and trying to make sure that I get a win so much as we need to win games in here."

Chris Schwinden, New York Mets (0-2, 5.06 ERA)

The Mets have lost all three of Schwinden’s starts this season, but he is giving them a shot every time he climbs the hill. The rookie looked to be in good shape to pick up his first MLB win when he hit the showers with a 4-3 lead over the Cardinals. After allowed three runs over six innings, the bullpen blew it by allowing three more in the seventh.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Monday’s Best MLB Bets

Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers (-140, 8)

The Detroit Tigers are still eying home field advantage in the playoffs and are keeping their foot on the gas heading down the stretch.

They hammered out four home runs in Sunday’s 10-6 win over Baltimore that saw Miguel Cabrera hit his 29th homer of the season and go 2-for-3 at the dish. Detroit’s slugger now leads the AL with a .341 batting average, just ahead of Boston’s Adrian Gonzalez, who went 0-for-4 Sunday afternoon.

However, Cabrera left the game after seven innings with what the team described as “light-headedness.” As of now, it’s uncertain whether he’ll miss any time, but the club may give him a day off with the way the offense is going lately.

Detroit is averaging 8.4 runs during its current five-game winning streak and the Tigers have won 20 of their last 26 home games against Cleveland.

PICK: Detroit


Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (-130, 7)

C.J. Wilson will be Texas’ starting pitcher when the club plays its first postseason game, but first he’ll have a tune-up start Monday.
Don’t expect him to stumble before the finish line.

"Last year, we all experienced the circus atmosphere of the playoffs," Wilson told reporters. "There is a lot of flexibility and weird stuff happening. You have to stay in your own little bubble, stay as regular as possible and not make a big deal out of it."

Wilson isn’t making a big deal of his recent blister issues either. He had one pop on the middle finger of his pitching hand in his last start, but says he has learned to deal with blister problems. The lefty has allowed just five combined runs over his last five starts.

PICK: Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Texans (+4) Sunday.

Monday it's the Cowboys. The correct deficit is 2606 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo's sweep dream ended quickly yesterday when the pathetic Pats failed miserably in Buffalo. However, he rallied in the later tilts with the more cooperative Packers and Saints to slash the dreaded dirty digits to 2,155 kilmers.

Tonight, it's Hail to the Redskins in Dallas and Fail to the Red Sawx in Baltimore -- 20 units apiece.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Monday

Marlins -140