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Free Silver Key Pick for Wednesday ML Baseball
St. Louis Carpenter -R -195 over HOUSTON
St. Louis Carpenter -R -195 over HOUSTON
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MLB
Write-up
Wednesday, September 28
Hot pitchers
-- Batista is 1-0, 3.71 in three starts for the Mets.
-- Strasburg has a 2.50 RA in four starts this year. Volstad is 0-0, 2.16 in his last four starts.
-- Hudson is 2-0, 1.98 in his last couple starts. Blanton is 1-1, 3.12 in his last five starts.
-- Carpenter is 2-0, 1.45 in his last four starts. Myers is 4-0, 1.53 in his last four starts.
-- Greinke is 3-1, 1.80 in his last six starts.
-- Dempster has a 2.70 RA in his last three starts. Leblanc is 1-1, 2.08 in his last couple starts.
-- Saunders is 3-0, 2.49 in his last three starts. Lilly is 4-1, 2.48 in his last six starts.
-- Morrow is 2-0, 0.00 in his last two starts (15 IP).
-- Porcello is 2-1, 3.33 in his last four starts.
-- Chen is 2-1, 2.11 in his last three starts.
-- Weaver is 2-1, 2.15 in his last four starts. Harrison is 4-0, 2.92 in his last four starts.
-- Gonzalez is 3-0, 1.71 in his last three starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Volquez is 0-3, 6.95 in his last four starts.
-- Locke is 0-2, 4.97 in three starts for Pittsburgh.
-- Surkamp has a 7.31 RA in his last four starts. Pomeramz is 0-1, 9.39 in his last couple starts.
-- McAlister is 0-1, 10.38 in three starts this season.
-- Lester, who is pitching on three days' rest, is 0-3, 10.54 in his last three starts. Simon is 0-3, 6.00 in his last six starts.
-- Price is 0-2, 4.25 in his last five starts. No idea who is pitching for Bronx; they could go bullpen/committee.
-- Humber is 0-1, 7.50 in his last three starts.
-- Pavano is 0-2, 5.85 in his last three starts.
-- Vasquez is 0-5, 11.05 in his last five starts.
Totals
-- Six of last eight Volquez starts stayed under the total.
-- Last four Surkamp starts went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Volstad starts.
-- Three of last four Hudson starts went over the total.
-- Four of last five Myers starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Greinke's last six starts.
-- Four of last five Dempster starts stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Saunders starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Humber starts.
-- Over is 7-2-2 in last eleven Porcello starts.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Simon starts.
-- Six of last nine Price starts stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Pavano starts went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Harrison starts went over the total.
-- Over is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Gonzalez starts.
Hot Teams
-- Reds won five of their last seven games.
-- Phillies won their last three games, scoring 20 runs.
-- Washington won 12 of its last 16 games.
-- Cardinals won 12 of their last 17 games.
-- Brewers won 10 of their last 14 games.
-- Arizona won seven of its last nine games. Dodgers won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- San Diego won seven of its last eleven games.
-- Detroit won 19 of its last 24 games. .
-- Rays won their last four games, outscoring foes 21-9.
-- Orioles won 10 of their last 15 games.
-- White Sox won three of their last four games.
-- Royals won 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Rangers won 13 of their last 15 games.
Cold Teams
-- Mets lost 12 of their last 17 games.
-- Atlanta lost 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Marlins lost four of their last six games.
-- Pirates lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Astros lost three of their last four games.
-- Cubs lost six of their last eight road games.
-- San Francisco lost four of its last six games. Rockies lost 11 of their last 14 games.
-- Indians lost their last three games, allowing 29 runs.
-- Red Sox are 7-19 so far this month.
-- Bronx lost its last three games, allowing 17 runs.
-- Toronto lost eight of its last ten road games.
-- Minnesota lost 15 of its last 18 games.
-- Angels lost five of their last six games.
-- Oakland is 9-12 in its last 21 games. Mariners lost five of their last six games.
Umpires
-- Phil-Atl-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Scott games.
-- Wsh-Fla-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Everitt games.
-- Cin-NY-- Road team won 11 of last 13 Runge games, with dogs 5-1 in his last six games behind dish.
-- StL-Hst-- Four of last five Danley games went over the total.
-- Pitt-Mil-- Five of last six BWelke games stayed under total.
-- LA-Az-- Over is 9-2 in last eleven Miller games.
-- Chi-SD-- Home side won four of last five Ripperger games.
-- Col-SF-- Under is 5-2-2 in last nine Tumpane games.
-- Cle-Det-- Six of last seven Bellino games stayed under the total.
-- Bos-Balt-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Hirschbeck games.
-- NY-TB-- Over is 11-5-1 in last seventeen West games.
-- KC-Min-- Six of last seven Kellogg games went over total.
-- Tor-Chi-- Lollo is a rookie ump; might be first game behind plate.
-- Tex-LA-- Five of last seven Emmel games went over total.
-- A's-Sea-- Under is 4-1-1 in Knight's last six games.Comment
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FantasySportsGametime
MLB Baseball Wednesday
Play Boston (-220) over Baltimore (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:00 PM EST
Jon Lester has won 25 of the last 30 games when playing as a favorite of -200 or more and he has also won 18 of the last 26 games when playing in the month of September. Jon Lester is 14-0 vs. Baltimore over his career with an ERA of 2.33 and he is 10-4 in road games this season with an ERA of 3.49.
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Play Detroit (-170) over Cleveland (Bonus)Comment
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WNBA Basketball Picks
Atlanta at Indiana
The Dream look to follow up on their 94-77 win on Sunday and build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games following an ATS victory. Atlanta is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's picks
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. ESTGame 609-610: Atlanta at Indiana (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.164; Indiana 114.059
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 157
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1 1/2); UnderComment
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SPORTS WAGERS
MILWAUKEE –1½ +115 over Pittsburgh
The Brewers clinch home field for the first round of the playoffs with a win here. How badly so the Brewers want home field? Well, for starters, Milwaukee has won 56 games at home, which is a franchise record. Secondly, instead of saving Zack Greinke for the opener of the playoffs, they’ve elected to have him go here to secure home field. That says a lot. Greinke’s ERA is 3.86 but over the last month it’s 2.61. His ERA on the year is not bad, but certainly not elite. However, his skills are absolutely elite 2.53 xERA, elite strikeout rate, high groundball bias profile and elite control. These are elite skills; it's only his ridiculous (bad luck) 34%/71% hit rate/strand rate that held him back from being the most dominant pitcher in the majors. Jeff Locke was obtained from the Braves in June '09. He performed well at the minor league level but he’s not ready for prime time. In three starts covering just 13 innings, Locke has walked eight and struck out two. He has a WHIP of 1.89 and an ERA of 4.97 and he’ll face a club that is going for it all. Can’t see how the Brewers don’t win this game by five or more. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +115 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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MLB PREDICTIONS
Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers - TIGERS TO WIN (-165)
2* MLB* (Note: I'm risking 3.30 units to win 2 units)
The Tigers need a win tonight and some help from Los Angeles in order to get home field advantage in the first round, which would be huge for Detroit who are 49-31 at Commerica Park this season. The Indians will send Zach McAllister on the mound for the Indians final game of the season. McAllister is 0-1 over three starts with a high 8.53 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, and .351 opponents batting average. His longest outing of the three starts was 5.1 innings in his last start vs the White Sox where he gave up 6 hits and 2 earned runs. This will be his first road start, and won't be an easy one against a Tigers team that is rolling right into the postseason and are playing for home field advantage tonight. Detroit sends Rick Porcello to the mound, who is 14-9 on the season despite a high 4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and .294 opponents batting average. The Tigers always seem to play well in front of Porcell0, as they are 20-8 in his last 28 starts, 6-1 in his last 7 home starts, and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite. Overall the Tigers are 38-16 in their last 54 overall, and 19-7 in their last 26 home games. The Tigers have dominated the AL Central division this season going 45-17 in their last 62 vs AL Central opponents. The Indians have collapsed in the second half of this season, and are just 8-20 in their last 28 vs a team with a winning record, 22-52 in their last 74 games as an underdog, and 3-11 in their last 14 games with a total set at 9-10.5. The Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 games after losing the first two games of a series, and 0-5 in their last 5 games as a big underdog of +151 to +200. Also take note that the Tigers are 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 home stats vs the Indians and 8-3 in his last 11 starts against them overall. The Tigers have won 9 straight games vs Cleveland after last night, and are 35-17 in their last 52 home games vs Cleveland. Injury problems have hit the Indians, including their team MVP Asdrubal Cabrera who will most likely miss the final game of the season. The Tigers are facing a struggling pitcher and that isn't good news for their opponent, as they have managed 46 runs in their last 7 games. Everything points to the Tigers here tonight as they roll into the playoff with a win - whether or not they got home field advantage will fall on the Texas/Los Angeles game. Take Detroit on the moneyline.Comment
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Zach Sparazza (THE WINNING ADDICT)
3* MLB* UNDER 8.5 White Sox/Blue Jays –110 (Risk 3.3 units to win 3 units) 2:10 P.M. EST
Phil Humber has been lights out during the day this year, while Brandon Morrow has been untouchable in his last three outings. This same matchup ended in a 2-1 score on Tuesday, and both of these teams are seeking the end of the season as if it can’t get here soon enough. Well, it is finally here—the final day of the regular season. The White Sox haven’t hit the ball well all year long, especially at home, and the Jays haven’t done much in this series, as Jose Bautista is being pitched around more and more without other solid hitters around him. Thames has cooled, Kelly Johnson isn’t killing it, and Adam Lind hasn’t found his groove through 161 games—so I doubt he finds it on the last day of the season. I expect the pitchers to dominate in this one, and 8.5 is much too high for two scuffling teams during the day time. Under 8.5 to win 3 units.Comment
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WEST CAPPER
4**** Reds/Mets under 9
2** Blue Jays/White Sox under 8.5
3*** Tigers (-160)
(directly from the West Capper email)
After going 39-19 in August in MLB for +15.1 units, we have struggled in September, going 6-7 (-6.8 units). We typically don't take a lot of MLB action in September because of the roster additions, team motivations and football season kicking off. We will start taking more action as the playoffs begin later this week. Looking to make a splash today and finish the month on a positive note, and today offers some very good value.
As a former professional player, I know all about getaway days and playing a game on the last day of the season with nothing on the line. Getaway Day refers to the last game of any series because the road team is going to "get away", or leave, after the game is over. Well today offers a unique betting situation, as it is the last day of the season and there are several day games. As a former player, I know that each of the guy's on the field have their bags packed and are ready for their off-season to begin. There will be a few players that are trying to hit a milestone (20 HR's, 20 stolen bases, 10 wins, etc), but for the most part the players just want the game to end so they can start their off-season. They have already checked out mentally and they want nothing more than for the game today to last under two hours. When I was a player, I remember our manager putting a $50 fine for anybody that took a strike on the last day of the season. The objective was to be aggressive and make it a quick game. That will hold true today for a few teams:
4**** Mets/Reds under 9 runs (-120)
Jump on this one early, as the number will definitely move to 8.5 closer to gametime. Volquez has struggled in his most recent starts, but he still has power stuff and as long as he throws strikes, he should keep the number down. Considering most of the Mets will be very aggressive and put the ball in play in a lot of 0-0 and 1-0 counts, he shouldn't have many walks or strikeouts. Six of his last eight starts have stayed UNDER. Bautista is a solid arm and throws strikes, and look for the Reds hitters to be aggressive. Both teams played a very long and meaningless game last night, so their should be some tired bodies on the field as the players close the season. With 11 and 9 runs being scored in the first two games (keeping this total higher than it should be), jump on this line with great value.
2** Blue Jays/White Sox under 8.5 runs (-110)
Another day game with two teams already looking toward their off-season. Morrow has been lights out his last two starts and has 15 straight scoreless innings coming into today. The White Sox have struggled to hit at home all season, and 8.5 is too high for two teams that can't wait for this game to end.
3*** Tigers (-160)
The Tigers need to win tonight to try and get home field advantage in the first round, which would be big considering how well the Tigers play at home. Cabrera will most likely miss the game for the Indians, and Pocello has been good his last few starts while McAlister has been bombed lately. Take the hot team (Detroit has won 19/24) and the team who has something to play for.
I'm also looking VERY closely at this Yankee game. Yankees pitched all of their meaningful relievers last night, which means none of them will throw today. They would actually probably prefer to lose this game today because of the Red Sox factor, and I question how many starters will actually see the field. If this line is crazy (-250 or above) then I might consider other options, but the Yankees are just giving away today.Comment
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David Banks
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
It could all come down to game #162 for the Atlanta Braves when they face the division rival Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday night, as manager Freddi Gonzalez’s squad needs to win out to avoid being overtaken or tied in the wild card standings by the St. Louis Cardinals; first pitch from Turner Field is scheduled for 7:10 ET on ESPN2.
Philadelphia has absolutely nothing to play for at this point of the season with the top seed in the National League all wrapped up. Still, manager Charlie Manuel’s squad could relish the opportunity to play the spoiler role, and evidenced by taking Game 1 of this series on Monday night, the Phillies aren’t just going to roll over and die for their division rival. Monday night’s win was #100 on the year for the Phillies who check in as the 6th best bet in all of baseball having made those that supported them all season long a healthy $1009; $668 of that profit has come in on the road where they sport a 48-31 overall record.
Much like the Boston Red Sox, the Atlanta Braves have put forth a September they hope doesn’t come back to bite them when it’s all said and done. The club has managed just nine wins in 25 tries costing those that backed them a whopping $1160 overall. Because of it, Atlanta’s 89-71 overall record has reeled in just $65 on the year. Not the numbers of what the NL Wild Card leader should look like, but the NL is by far the lesser of the two league’s overall this season. Atlanta does sit 15-games over .500 at home (-$19), but enters the second game of this series on Tuesday night losers in six of their L/10 as hosts.
Philadelphia has rattled off five straight wins against the Braves and holds a 10-6 overall advantage in the division rivals 2011 season series; the ‘under’ is 8-6-2 in those games.
Philly will go with Joe Blanton who will be making his second start since returning from the DL on Wednesday, while the Braves will throw veteran righty Tim Hudson for the 33rd time. Atlanta has won two of his three 2011 starts against the Phillies, and he’s 10-4 with a 2.29 ERA & .204 BAA in 18 starts in front of the hometown faithful this season. The ‘under’ is 3-1-1 the L/5 times these teams squared off in Hot’Lanta.
PICK: PHILLIES/BRAVES UNDERComment
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