9-29-11

[Mr. IWS]

Pointwise Newsletter


South Florida 24 - PITTSBURGH 20 - (8:00 - ESPN)
Panthers must regroupoff 2 wrenching setbacks, but note just 124, 137, 105 RYs last 3 outings, & lost 2 of last 3 HGs by 28,11 pts ATS. Bulls (4-0) feasting on patsies past 3 wks (1st RG since opener). So note 508-254 yd deficit in upset of NoDame. Pass.


　
Houston 48 - UTEP 22 - (8:00 - CBSC)
Barnburners the rule here, but Miners'93rd ranked scoring "O" can't match pts with potent Coogs. Utep in off ceding 373 RYs & you know they'll be stung by Keenum, who threw for 815 yds last 2meetings, & is at 384 PYpg so far this year. Only caveat is horrid UH RF log.

[Mr. IWS]

Nelly Newsletter

　

South Florida (-2½) PITTSBURGH 7:00 PM
South Florida quickly moved to the favorite in this game and could be the

favorite in the Big East moving forward, but we have seen fast starts dissolve

with the Bulls program in the past. Pittsburgh has won the last three

meetings between these teams including a blowout in the last home matchup

and after back-to-back tight losses the Panthers will be focused.

Pittsburgh has been an unimpressive statistical team as the system changes

are taking some time to implement and even in the first two games against

far lesser foes the Panthers struggled. Pittsburgh deserved to cover at Iowa

and covered last week against Notre Dame as the defense has been

opportunistic. South Florida caught a lot of breaks to beat Notre Dame in the

opener and the schedule has been incredibly weak since so the big statistics

should not be considered overly meaningful. The Bulls did not play that well

on defense last week but this has been a tough team to run against and with

Pittsburgh playing back-to-back big games and suffering tight losses this

could be a challenging situation on a short week.

SOUTH FLORIDA BY 10

　

Houston (-18) UTEP 7:00 PM

The Cougars are off to a 4-0 start and the schedule ahead presents few real

threats. Houston has not exactly been dominant however, needing late

scores for narrow wins over UCLA and Louisiana Tech so a perfect season is

not going to make this team a threat to be a BCS buster. Winning

Conference USA is very possible however but this is a team that was just 2-4

on the road last season. Last season Houston won 54-24 at home against

UTEP but playing in El Paso can be a challenge and the Cougars have

struggled in the road favorite role. UTEP is 2-2 and they have covered in all

three FBS match-ups, hanging around as big underdogs against both SMU

and South Florida. The Miners have played each of the last three games on

the road in a tough early season schedule and this team was 5-1 S/U at

home last year. Houston looks suspect as big favorites and the Miners could

get starting QB Nick Lamaison back this week.

HOUSTON BY 10

[Mr. IWS]

Goldsheet Newsletter

*South Florida 28 - PITTSBURGH 21—


Pitt shook up its defensive lineup, but

Panthers still couldn’t keep ND at bay in crunch time last week, and Panther QB

Sunseri still learning ins and outs of HC Graham’s offense. Meanwhile, USF

has won and covered 5 straight road games. HC Skip Holtz’ offense avoiding

miscues, as QB Daniels has been very efficient (66%, just 1 int.), and his

defense getting contributions from younger players. CABLE TV—ESPN

(10-Pitt 17-S. FLA. 10...S.19-17 S.37/153 P.36/150 P.11/16/0/142 S.15/29/1/132 P.0 S.0)

(10-Pitt -3 17-10 09-PITT -6' 41-14 08-Pitt +13' 26-21...SR: Pittsburgh 5-3)

*Houston 40 - UTEP 28—


UTEP’s soph QB Carson Meger (26 of 40, 2 TDs)

showed plenty of moxie in 52-24 loss at South Florida. And Miner HC Mike Price

said his team would “

surprise” TY (hey, UTEP 3-0 vs. spread vs. FBS squads!).

Vet UTEP”D” could be healthier this week (star DT Reed & all-league CB Nixon

could return after missing last 2 games), so will take hefty number vs. UH (allow

30 ppg vs. FBS). UTEP 9-4 as a Sun Bowl dog since Price took over in ’04,

including 58-41 stunner in ‘09.

(10-HOU. 54-Utep 24...H.32-24 H.42/308 U.21/100 H.24/34/1/348 U.30/55/0/340 H.1 U.1)

(10-HOUSTON -20' 54-24 09-UTEP +14' 58-41 08-HOUSTON -17' 42-37...SR: EVEN 4-4)

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco
Thursday
15 Dime Play on South Florida as the road favorite tonaght against Pittsburgh

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast

Marquee Pitt +3
Bonus Play: Houston -16.5

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

25 south florida -2.5

100 syndicate play houston/utep over 66

[Mr. IWS]

spartan | CFB Side

dime bet 101 South Florida -2.5 (-110) Hilton vs 102 Pittsburgh

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Handicapper King

NCAA FOOTBALL
10* Utep +17 (buy half a point)

[Mr. IWS]

The Gold Sheet

Houston at UTEP
Pick: UTEP +17

Too many points for Houston to lay on road? This road chalk role hasn't been a good one over the years for Kevin Sumlin's Cougars (just 2-8 vs. points last 10 as visiting chalk). UTEP's soph QB Carson Meger (26 of 40, 2 TDs) showed plenty of moxie in 52-24 loss at South Florida. And Miner HC Mike Price said his team would "surprise" TY (hey, UTEP 3-0 vs. spread vs. FBS squads!). Vet UTEP"D" could be healthier this week (star DT Reed & all-league CB Nixon could return after missing last 2 games), so will take hefty number vs. UH (allow 30 ppg vs. FBS). UTEP 9-4 as a Sun Bowl dog since Price took over in '04, including 58-41 stunner in '09. Play UTEP Miners

[Mr. IWS]

Lines2win

After taking the last 2 days off we are ready to get back to business. NCAAF is 23-9-3 (+31.56 Units) and we are looking to add to our totals. We are gonna play 2 tonight but keep them small and build up for a Sat run.

Pitt +3 (3 Units) - The Bulls have looked good early. Skip Holtz has brought respectability to a good up and coming program, but even though they are 4-0 we just don't think they have played good enough competition. We are gonna choose to ignore the Notre Dame game because Notre Dame was in serious disarray early on. Pitt on the other hand brings a good defense into this matchup. They managed to lose 2 straight games against a much better Notre Dame team and good Iowa team. We think the Pitt defense can hold up tonight. They will have to key on qb BJ Daniels and limit his production and this looks like a good bounce back spot as any. Get the +3 and we should win this one.

Houston/Utep Over 66 (2 Unit) - We really like Houston in this one and even though the line is dropping, 17 points still seems like too much. Houston tries too hard early in games to be balanced. They allow teams to stay close knowing their defense is not built to contain teams. They need to fully realize that the pass attack can never slow down. For this reason UTEP will be in this most of the way and the Over seems a near certainty, more so than a Houston cover.

[Mr. IWS]

Great Lakes Sports

4* South Florida Bulls 8:00est

[Mr. IWS]

DAQsports

Today's selections:

NCAAF: Pittsburgh +2.5, UTEP +16.5

[Mr. IWS]

Trusted Picks

Houston Over 66

[Mr. IWS]

JOHN CHANG

---Start Time 8:00 PM EST---
South Florida Bulls -3 over PITTSBURGH PANTHERS, 10 dimes
We're rolling with the visiting South Florida squad over a very mediocre Pitt team. B.J. Daniels with a couple of linemen alone could probably beat Pitt. The Bulls have a dangerous, high octane offense that averages over 45 points per game. Some of that may be due to light competition, but credit has to go where it is deserved. Pitt will pin their ears back and rush the passer, but Daniels is a talented and elusive player, and I expect some big rushing plays from him tonight. The air attack cannot be ignored either, as Daniels has a decent arm and is improving his decision making every week. He's made dramatic improvements since last year, and I don't think Todd Graham has had enough time this week to prepare for the double sided threat of Daniels. South Florida's defense is stingy as hell. Tino Sunseri is a below average quarterback, and he's the last signal caller that has a chance to break through Skip Holtz's defense. Take the road team.

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton
Thursday's Action
30 Dime Thursday Winner # 3 in a Row goes toniaht from the Sun Bowl, as I back the home underadog in this one. Take UTEP plus the points agaicst the visiting Houston Cougars. The Miners are priced right around a +16 1/2-point underdog both here in Vegas and offshore.





10 Dime Big East Bonus Lock is to take the Pitt Panthers plus the points at home against visiting South Florida. As I release this winner to you, the Panthers are +3-points both here in Vegas and offshore.