10-1-11

[Mr. IWS]

CKO

10 *SYRACUSE over Rutgers
Late Score Forecast:
*SYRACUSE 31 - Rutgers 17
(Saturday, October 1)
10 *STANFORD over Ucla
Late Score Forecast:
*STANFORD 41 - Ucla 10
(Saturday, October 1)
10 ARKANSAS STATE over
*W. Kentucky
Late Score Forecast:
ARKANSAS STATE 41 -
*W. Kentucky 17

[Mr. IWS]

Prediction Machine
Pauls Picks
GTECH 61.9
Illinois 61.8
S Carolina 60.3

[Mr. IWS]

Bettorsworld

3* Key Release Michigan State +3 over Ohio State

To sum up the play, this is a now or never game for Michigan State and Kirk Cousins. Ohio State has dominated the series winning 7 straight, though the last time they played was 2008. But let's face it, this isn't the same Ohio State team we've seen in recent years with Tyrelle Pryor. Pryor is gone, Tressel is gone, and key players are suspended including receiver Devier Posey and Running Back Daniel Herron.

We like the QB match up here with Cousins over Braxton Miller making his 2nd start. We like the Michigan State defense and their chances to stop the Ohio State run and force the game into the hands of the inexperienced QB. Our main concern would be the Michigan State offensive line.

We can look at Michigan State playing 3 cup cakes and then losing to Notre Dame 31-13. But note that that game was 28-13 with Michigan State having a 1st and goal at the ND 3 late in the game before a pick went the other way for a TD. Mich State had more 1st downs and more yards than ND, holding the explosive Irish offense to 161 passing yards and 114 on the ground.

We can also look at Ohio State squeaking by Toledo, a game where Toledo out gained the Buckeyes and shot themselves in the foot with 14 penalties compared to 2 for Ohio State. We can also look at the Buckeyes being dominated by Miami when they stepped up in class.

We like our chances with Michigan State to finally get a win in this series, making the +3 a bonus.

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

5*Take #239 SMU (+13) over TCU (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 1)

3*Take #178 South Carolina (-10) over Auburn (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 1)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #175 Mississippi State (+7) over Georgia (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 1)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #141 Texas Tech (-6.5) over Kansas (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 1)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #161 Arizona (+12) over USC (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 1)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #126 Tennessee (-28.5) over Buffalo (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 1)

1-Unit Play. Take #124 Virginia (-16.5) over Idaho (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 1)

1-Unit Play. Take #111 Northwestern (+8) over Illinois (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 1)

[Mr. IWS]

OCAL SPORTS

4* Texas Tech -6.5

4* Ohio State -3

3* Washington +10

3* Arkansas State -12

3* Troy -17

[Mr. IWS]

THE DAILY BOBBER

NCAA

Three-game teaser (6 points): Temple -2, Eastern Michigan -2.5, Arizona St. -12

[Mr. IWS]

Arlon Sports

3* SMU
3* Nebraska
3* Florida Atlantic
2* Washington
2* Mississippi
2* Western Kentucky

[Mr. IWS]

David Malinsky

4* Northwestern +10

It should come as absolutely no surprise that we land here, in yet another investment behind Pat Fitzgerald as a road underdog, but we had to let the markets do their thing. Now that they have pushed it to the point at which +10 has become common available, it is time to get in the game.

We will not be too redundant in detailing the Fitzgerald track record in this role, but over the last four seasons, as either road underdogs or bowl underdogs on neutral fields, he and the Wildcats are a sparkling 11-2 ATS. But that only tells part of the tale – in seven of those games they won outright, while two of the losses came in O.T. That indicates something essential to understanding the value the bring – they are not just hanging ATS covers because of a lack of market respect, but instead showing that they have the moxie and tactical acumen to go out and make things happen on the field. With 19 fifth-year SR’s in prominent places on the depth chart, now that QB Dan Persa is ready to make his debut, and DT Jack DiNardo and S David Arnold are back in the fold, they also bring one of the highest motivational levels of their collective careers, after being whipped 48-27 by the Illini at Wrigley Field LY. Persa did not play in that one, and the defense may have had its worst outing of the Fitzgerald era. That brings pride into play for a group that has shown that they have it.

Not much is going to come easily for Illinois. The Illini had to scrap to the final possession to get past Arizona State and Western Michigan by three points each the past two weeks, and the way that Western was able to hang in the game last Saturday, with Alex Carder working the short passing lanes en route to 30 completions and 306 yards, is something what Persa and a deep Northwestern WR can continue. The Illinois pass rush is a force, but if you spread the field and get the ball out quickly it can be negated, and that is exactly what the Wildcats do best.

Prior to LY, Northwestern had won outright as an underdog in the last two meetings in this series, including a win on the last trip to Champaign. We would not be surprised if the Wildcats were in the hunt to the final possession, and another underdog victory is within their reach.

[Mr. IWS]

SB Professor

Original NCAA Picks
Saturday's NCAA Picks:

12 PM EST
Northwestern +10*

3:30 PM EST
SMU +13*

8 PM EST
Purdue +12*

Rest of Games
Toledo +8
Tulane +7
Akron +8.5
Kansas +7
Arkansas +3
Mississippi St. +7
Central Michigan +9.5
Marshall +11.5
Arizona +10.5
Auburn +10.5
Iowa St. +9
North Carolina St. +10
Washington +10
Clemson +7
East Carolina +7
Nebraska +10

[Mr. IWS]

Chip Chirimbes

Nebraska vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -10

Welcome to the Big Ten! The Nebraska Cornhuskers make their Big Ten debut at Wisconsin Saturday night where both clubs enter this fray 4-0. Each of these teams crushed all the early season weaklings on their schedule but there is a difference in the defenses between the two. Nebraska has allowed mediocre competition to move the ball on the ground and that is something the Badgers (5.4 yards per run) will be sure to take advantage. Russell Wilson's passing rushing ability has given Wisconsin that little extra that they need to get to the National Championship game. Lay it as the Badgers wear the Huskers down in the second half.

[Mr. IWS]

Colin Cowherd

Utah

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Roberts

5* south carolina

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root
Free Play

Gametime: Sat Oct 1 2011 4:00 pm
Texas Longhorns @ Iowa State Cyclones

Take: Iowa State Cyclones

[Mr. IWS]

THE GOLD SHEET'S LATE TELEPHONE SERVICE

COLLEGE FOOTBALL SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1

1½ UNITS FRESNO STATE -3½ Home over Mississippi - 6:15 PM PDT game #194

NORTHWESTERN +10 over Illinois - Home 9:00 AM PDT game #111

WESTERN MICHIGAN +3 over Connecticut - Home 12:30 PM PDT game #133

MARSHALL +11 over Louisville - Home 12:30 PM PDT game #157

Arizona-Southern Cal OVER 57 points - at Southern Cal 12:30 PM PDT game #161-162

WASHINGTON +10 over Utah - Home 4:00 PM PDT game #163

PURDUE +12 Home over Notre Dame - 5:00 PM PDT game #192

[Mr. IWS]

RICK NEEDHAM

Clemson at Virginia Tech (-7½) Oct. 1, 6:00 PM, ESPN2


Here’s The Deal … Blacksburg will play host to a blockbuster ACC event on Saturday evening. Both of the game’s participants are hoping to appear in the sequel in Charlotte a little over two months from now. Clemson and Virginia Tech are two of the last three unbeaten ACC members, hoping to represent the Atlantic and Coastal Divisions, respectively, in the Dec. 3 league championship game. For now, simply remaining unblemished through Week 5 will be the goal. The Tigers were one of the country’s biggest surprises of September, capping a perfect start with signature wins over Auburn and Florida State. The program has adapted swimmingly to offseason changes in the coaching staff and the offensive system, while giving birth to a handful of up-and-coming stars at the skill positions. The Hokies have been, well, the Hokies. As always, style points come at a premium, but the team continues to produce results with unflinching consistency. Unlike Clemson, though, Tech has yet to truly be tested in 2011. In fact, it’s yet to even face an opponent from a major conference, which makes this weekend’s showdown an even taller order for the Gobblers.
Why Clemson Might Win: It’s taken just a few weeks for the Tigers to adapt to coordinator Chad Morris’ up-tempo offensive system. With Tajh Boyd calling the shots behind center, they’ve yet to be held below 35 points, slapping 344 yards and three touchdowns through the air on the Seminoles last Saturday. The sophomore’s supporting cast has evolved on the fly, giving him more speed and explosiveness than they’ve had at Clemson in years. The cast of homerun hitters includes RB Andre Ellington and receivers Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins. While just a rookie, Watkins is on the verge of becoming a mega-star, with 28 catches for 433 yards and six touchdowns through the first four games. If the Tigers succeed in dragging Tech into a shootout, the Hokies will struggle to keep pace. Their first-year starting quarterback, Logan Thomas, has been slow to adapt to his expanded role, and the receiving corps has been decimated by injuries.

Why Virginia Tech Might Win: The Clemson offense is terrific. The Virginia Tech D believes it’s a little bit better. The Hokies, under the guidance of long-time coordinator Bud Foster, have gotten off to a great start so far in 2011, ranking no lower than No. 10 nationally in sacks, rushing D, pass efficiency D, scoring D and total D. The unit is a little short on star power, save for CB Jayron Hosley, leaning instead on a committee of speedy defenders who don’t miss tackles. Ends J.R. Collins and James Gayle are quick off the snap, a concern for a middling Tigers front wall. Linebackers Tariq Edwards and Bruce Taylor have a knack for being in the right place at the right time. The corners, Hosley and Kyle Fuller are air-tight, bolstering a secondary that’s allowed only two touchdown passes and picked off seven throws. The Hokies won’t need Thomas to be prolific to win this game. The meld of lightning-quick RB David Wilson and north-south RB Josh Oglesby will do plenty of damage to a suspect Clemson front that’s allowing a whopping 4.8 yards per carry.

What To Watch Out For: The matchup between the Virginia Tech corners and the Clemson receivers will be the best game-within-the-game of the evening. Strike that. It’ll be the most intriguing pairing of the entire weekend’s slate of games. Even by five-star recruit standards, Watkins has been otherworldly so far, toying with defensive backs four or five years his senior. Hopkins, or “Nuke” to the locals, has similar incendiary qualities, yet could be a scratch if his hamstring injury hasn’t healed. Fuller and Hosley rank among the best cornerback tandems in America, the next in a long line of Hokies defensive backs destined to play on Sundays. While Fuller operates with the mentality of a safety, Hosley has elite cover skills. To win in Blacksburg, Clemson will need to be the first team in a long time to solve the Virginia Tech pass defense.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The ACC has not heard the last of Clemson, but the run of wins over ranked teams will end at two. Virginia Tech is ideally suited to slow down the Tigers with a combination of its attacking defense and diverse ground game. While the Tigers will score and amass a bunch of yards, they won’t reach the end zone with the same proficiency as in recent weeks. Foster will employ the right mix of stunts and blitzes to keep Boyd from distributing the ball unmolested. On offense, the Hokies won’t ask Thomas to be the hero, leaning instead on the big-play ability of Wilson. The game will be close throughout, with every late possession carrying significance. Clemson has yet to play outside Death Valley. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, will feed off the energy in Lane Stadium, the difference in a battle between similarly talented programs. I'll TAKE TECH TO WIN - BUT FOR CLEMSON TO "BEAT THE SPREAD!"

RICK'S "HOT-SPOT" PLAYS

PITTSBURGH ( 2.0) OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
VIRGINIA (-17.0) OVER IDAHO
COLORADO STATE (-3.0) OVER SAN JOSE STATE
TEXAS (-9.0) OVER IOWA STATE
F.I.U. (-3.0) OVER DUKE