10-1-11

[timbob]

Norm Hitzges

DOUBLE PLAYS:
Virginia Tech -7 Clemson
Alabama -4 Florida

*SINGLE PLAYS:**
W. Michigan* +2 1/2 Uconn
Ohio -16 1/2 Kent State
Michigan St.* +3 Ohio State
Louisiana Tech -4 Hawaii
E. Carolina +6 N. Carolina
Troy -16 1/2* UAB
Oregon State* +18 1/2 Arizona St.
Baylor -3 1/2 Kansas St.
Iowa State +9 1/2 Texas
Texas Tech -6 1/2 Kansas

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PITTVIPER SPORTS

MLB PLAYS
2* ROT# 955 - 2:07pm - Arizona Diamondbacks +130 [2 units to win 2.60 units]
2* ROT# 956 - 2:07pm - Arizona/Milwaukee UNDER 7 (-110) [2.5 units to win 2.27 units]
2* ROT# 958 - 5:07pm - St. Louis/Philadelphia UNDER 7 (-110) [2.5 units to win 2.27 units]

CFB PLAYS
2* ROT# 190 – 12:20pm - Louisiana State U. Tigers -30.5 (-110) [2.5 units to win 2.27 units]
2* ROT# 185 – 8:00pm - North Carolina Tar Heels -6.5 (-115) [2.5 units to win 2.17 units]
2* ROT# 150 – 10:30pm - Stanford Cardinal -21 (-118) [buy half point] [2.5 units to win 2.12 units]
2* ROT# 162 – 3:30pm - Arizona/Southern California UNDER 57 (-110) [2.5 units to win 2.27 units]
2* ROT# 185 – 8:00pm - North Carolina/East Carolina OVER 60 (-110) [2.5 units to win 2.27 units]
2* ROT# 192 – 8:00pm - Notre Dame/Purdue UNDER 48 (-110) [2.5 units to win 2.27 units]

[timbob]

Paul Leiner

100* Auburn +10.5
50* Indiana +15

100* Texas Rangers -120

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BOOKIE BEATING-RON CLEARY
5 unit - Indiana +15
5 unit - Kansas State +3.5
5 unit - Washington +10
10 unit - Alabama -180 (ML play)

BOOKIE BEATING-CLAYTON RODGERS
5 unit - Marshall +11
5 unit - Arizona +12.5
5 unit - SMU +13
5 unit - Clemson +7
5 unit - Norte Dame -12

BOOKIE BEATING-DAVID HARPER
5 unit - Western Michigan +3
5 unit - Kent State @ Ohio - Over 46
5 unit - Nebraska @ Wisconsin - Over 55

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Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Clemson +7 over VT

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JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Hawaii +4.5 over La. Tech.

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Rainman

Wake Forest
South Carolina
Stanford
Northern Illinois
Temple
Cinncinati
Northwestern

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Prophet

NC State over
Kansas over
Ohio State
Texas over
Baylor over
Tcu over
Nebraska over

Brewers

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POINWISE PHONES:

4* S Carolina, VT

3* Stanf, Tex, Wash, Tex Tech, Utah St, Northwestern, W Forest

2* Arkansas St, Bama

LET'S DO THIS! BEST OF LUCK!

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Redsheet

Wake 27 BC 17 (89*)
Stan 48 UCLA 13 (89*)

USC 30 Zona 24 (88*)
BST 63 NEV 20 (88*)
OHIO U 47 Kent 13 (88*)

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NCAAF
Writeup

Saturday's best games

Underdogs are 9-2-1 vs spread in last dozen Air Force-Navy games, as Falcons lost last three visits here, by 3-11-3 points. Air Force beat the Middies 14-6 (-9.5) at home LY, their first series win in last eight tries, running ball for 292 yards. Air Force hasn't beaten a I-A team yet, while Navy (+17.5) lost 24-21 at South Carolina two weeks ago, converting 9 of 14 on third down and running ball for 274 yards. Navy is 7-14-1 in its last 22 games as a home fave. Air Force is 12-10-1 as a road dog.

Favorites are 5-2 in Northwestern's last seven visits to Illinois, with the Wildcats winning three of last four; Illini are 5-3 vs spread in last eight as a series favorite, 2-2 here. Since 2008, Illinois is 5-7-1 as a home favorite. Wildcats covered eight of last ten games as a road underdog- they're 1-1 on road this season, winning 24-17 (+3) at Boston College, losing 21-14 (-8) at Army two weeks ago. Illinois is 4-0 but hasn't played anyone of note; they trailed Western Michigan at half last week, won 23-20 (-13).

Underdogs covered six of last seven Georgia Tech-NC State games, with Tech winning last three visits to Raleigh, by 8-10-7 points. Tech covered one of last four as a series favorite- they're 4-0 this year, scoring 50 ppg in three games vs I-A opponents. NC State beat Tech two of last three years after losing previous five meetings, but Wolfpack lost both games vs I-A foes, 34-27 (-2.5) at Wake Forest, 44-14 (+7.5) last Thursday at Cincinnati. Tech has 1,298 rushing yards in its last three games.

Ohio State won its last seven games vs Michigan State, with six of seven wins by 10+ points; Spartans lost lost last four visits here by an average score of 30-20. Favorites covered six of last eight in series, but Spartans are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here. Buckeyes completed 11 of 34 passes in last two games; since 2004, they're 30-17 as a home fave, 1-2 so far this season. MSU covered twice in last seven games as road dog, losing 31-13 (+5) at Notre Dame in only road game this year.

Florida is home dog for first time since 2003. Alabama won 31-6/32-13 in last two games vs Gators; last six series games were decided by 11+ points. This is Tide's first visit to Swamp since '06; they're 9-4 in last 13 games as road favorite, winning 27-11 (-10) in only road game this year, at Penn State. Florida covered seven of last ten games as a dog. Alabama outscored first four opponents 76-22 in second half. Dogs are 4-3-1 vs spread in last eight series games.

Arkansas beat old SWC/future SEC rival Texas A&M 24-17/47-19 last couple years; Razorbacks are 10-7-1 vs spread in game following last 18 losses- they got drilled at Alabama last week. Aggies covered six of last eight as a road favorite, are coming off home loss to Oklahoma State in a game A&M led 20-3 at half- they're 6-10 coming off a loss. Arkansas is 11-8 as a dog under Petrino. Hogs are minus-2 in turnovers in each of its last three games, all of which went over the total.

Utah's first Pac-10 home game is against Washington squad that got beat 51-38 (+17) at Nebraska in its only road game this year. Huskies are 3-1 after beating Cal at home last week- they scored 40-38-31 points in last three games. Since 2006, Utes are 13-9-2 as home favorite, 25-15-1 in conference play; they had last week off after crushing rival BYU 54-10 two weeks ago. Since '07, Huskies are 6-13 as road underdogs. Utes have +9 turnover margin, recovering eight opponent fumbles last two games.

Baylor QB's have thrown 14 TD passes, 13 IPs, but things figure to get tougher in Little Apple vs Kansas State squad that won in rainy Miami last week. Bears lost last three visits here by average score of 46-10, but those games were before Baylor had Briles/Griffin combo. Baylor scored 50-56 in its games vs I-A foes; over last decade, they're 5-0 as a favorite on road. K-State outrushed Miami 265-139 in rain last week, stopping 'canes on goal line in last 1:00. Wildcats are 3-7 in last 10 as home dog.

Mississippi State lost 27-24/47-0 in last two visits to Georgia; MSU is 4-8 in last dozen games as road underdog- they beat Louisiana Tech last week in OT, after consecutive losses to Auburn/LSU, so they're trying to find their way. Georgia outrushed Ole Miss 207-34 last week- since 2003, Dawgs are 15-22-1 as home favorites. Since 2008, State is 7-10 vs spread coming off a win- they were outscored 23-12 in second half of last two games. Georgia's losses are Boise/South Carolina, top 25 clubs.

Auburn won last five games vs South Carolina by average score of 37-15, covering four of five games, winning last three here by 39-7-17 points, but Auburn's defense is lame, allowing 41 of 69 conversions on 3rd down (59.4%)- they gave up 624 yards in 38-24 loss at Clemson, only road tilt of year so far. Tigers are 2-6 in last eight games as road dog. Gamecocks have been tested in tight wins over Georgia (45-42), Navy (24-21); they are 12-9 vs spread in last 21 games as a home favorite.

Clemson beat Auburn/Florida State at home last two weeks, now goes to Blacksburg for first time since '06 to play Virginia Tech squad that beat them five games in row, all by 17+ points. Hard to tell much about Tech squad that allowed 9 ppg to three cupcakes, outscoring them 24-3 in 2nd half. Hokies are 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorite. First away game for Clemson team that covered four of last five as road underdog. Tigers lost last two visits to Lane Stadium 24-7 (-5) in '06, 31-11 (+12) in '99

First game in new league for Nebraska; over last decade, they're just 6-11 as road underdog, but 2-1 under Pelini. Cornhuskers allowed average of 157.7 rushing yards, 27 ppg in last three games, but they also ran ball for 861 yards in those games. Wisconsin won its four games by average of 39-9, but none of those teams are any good. Badgers have senior QB in Wilson, who transferred in from NC State; they're 23-15-1 in their last 39 games as a home favorite, 16-12 under Beilema. Huskers completed only 32 of 63 passes in last three games. Badgers have more balance.

Fresno State went to Oxford LY and got crushed 55-38 (+2), giving up 425 rushing yards to Ole Miss, but the '11 Rebels are struggling with the ball, scoring 11 ppg, running for just 61 ypg in losing all three games vs I-A competition. Since 2006, Fresno is mystifying 3-14-1 vs spread as home favorite; they've allowed 34 ppg in 1-2 start vs I-A teams, but all three of those games were on road. Ole Miss is 6-2 as road unerdog with Nutt as coach, but they lost only '11 road game, 30-7 at Vanderbilt.

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SPORTS WAGERS

INDIANA +15 over Penn State

12:00 PM EST. Who the f**k are the Nittany Lions to be favored by 15 points on the road. Yeah, they’re 3-1 and the Hoosiers are 1-3 but Penn St has played three cupcakes and one power (Alabama) and were crushed by the Tide at home by a 27-11 count. When the Nittany Lions went into Temple in week 2, they squeezed out a 14-10 win. Penn State’s offense is brutal. They work the two-headed QB system and through four games they’ve scored 100 points. Keep in mind that they scored 41 and 34 against Indiana St. and Eastern Michigan respectively. The Hoosiers have never beaten the Lions. They’re 0-14 lifetime against Paterno’s bunch and that has influence on bettors and the line. That streak could get broken here. Indiana will look to get this monkey off its back and will be jacked right up to do so. The Hoosiers three losses to Virginia, Ball State and North Texas have been by a combined 13 points. Indiana is averaging over 413 yards of offense per game and while they really haven’t faced a defense like the one they’ll see here, they have two very capable QB’s and a strong receiving corps. Penn State is nothing this year but they’re being billed as a threat in the Big-10. That’s a joke. Hoosiers keep this one well within this range. Play: #129 Indiana +15 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).


Michigan St +3½/+144 over OHIO ST

3:30 PM EST. We’ll split this one up and play the Spartans for one unit on both the money line and point spread. MSU comes in with a 3-1 record but they’ve beaten three dregs by big scores while losing to Notre Dame by 18. Losing to the Irish is nothing to hang your head over, as the Irish are a quality and dangerous team but the Spartans were supposed to keep it a lot closer than that. With three “nothing” wins on their résumé this season. Michigan St is getting very little respect. What we can assure you is that they’re much better than the Buckeyes and that might be an understatement. OSU also has three wins and one loss. They went into Miami and were crushed by the Canes by a 24-6 count. At home against Toledo, as a 17½-point favorite, the Buckeyes escaped with a scary five-point win. Aside from the loss to the Canes, the Buckeyes have been a 17-point favorite or better in all three games, yet their passing ranks 108th in the nation. This is a one-dimensional offense that will be hard-pressed to move the ball against MSU. By contrast, the Spartans offense is wicked. Kirk Cousins has completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 947 yards. By contrast, OSU QB, Braxton Miller went 5-13 against Colorado for 83 yards. The Spartans had a bad game against the Irish and that brought their stock way down. It happens. If they played them again today, they could just as easily reverse that score. Now they get an opportunity to show who they really are and expose this rebuilding Buckeye club in much the same way that the Canes did. Play: #153 Michigan St +3½ (Risking 1.1 units to win 1). Play: Michigan St +144 (Risking 1 unit).


KANSAS STATE +4½ over Baylor

3:30 PM EST. SIA has the Wildcats taking back 4½ while most everyone else has them taking back 3½. We would play it either way. Baylor won a 47-42 shootout against K-State last year to reach bowl eligibility for the first time since 1994. This year both teams are improved, but it's the home standing Wildcats who have made the most progress from 2010. Kansas State's rush defense was one of the worst in the FBS last season, but this year K-State has upgraded its line play from poor to decent and may have the most improved linebacking corps in the nation. Impressive goal-line stands in back-to-back weeks have this group playing confident football, and while decorated Baylor QB Robert Griffin III will certainly get his yards, the Bears will have to finish drives to keep pace in this affair. This Wildcat team has the rushing attack to limit Baylor's possessions while denting the scoreboard itself. And although Baylor's defense is improved in its own right under new coordinator Phil Bennett, the Bears are still no match for the Wildcats' power offense. Kansas State's win against the Miami Hurricanes was more than just a one-time offer. While coach Bill Snyder's Wildcats are probably a year or two away from true contention in the Big 12, this is clearly a program on the rise again. The whole football world is laying the points here and one thing that remains constant in this sport is that when all the traffic is going one way, it’s usually better to go the other way. Play: #170 Kansas State +4½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).


Northwestern +10 over ILLINOIS

12:00 mPM EST. Wow, 10 points is a lot of lumber for the Illini to be spotting any quality club and you can double that against a quality club with two weeks to prepare. Not only can Northwestern stay close, they can win this game outright. The Land of Lincoln rivalry has been heating up the past few years and with both teams looking to contend in the new Big Ten divisional format and with both laying claim to the mantle of "Chicago's Team," this year could be the most venomous entry in the series in some time. Northwestern's fire is especially stoked after allowing an embarrassing 519 rushing yards to the Illini in last year's Wrigley Field debacle. Quarterback Dan Persa hasn't played a down of football since that game due to a ruptured Achilles tendon, but he and his quick release will be back under center Saturday behind a veteran offensive line that can blunt Illinois' stout defensive front. Illinois is coming on strong behind a quality pair of second-year coordinators and some solid recruiting classes, but the Illini aren't quite talented enough to prevent this game from boiling down to the coaching mismatch between Ron Zook and Pat Fitzgerald. With a bye week ahead, Northwestern chose to hold a medically cleared Persa out of action against the Army Black Knights to conceal their plans for Big Ten play. It cost them dearly in a loss to the Cadets but will pay off this week as Persa and the rested Wildcats show up in Champaign bent on redemption from last year's laydown. You’re paying a big premium for wagering on the Illini for two reasons. One, they’re ranked and two, they blew this foe away last year. Don’t pay anything. Take the points. Play: #112 Northwestern +10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Tampa Bay +110 over TEXAS

The Rangers are definitely more comfortable playing at night by so what. They have the second best pitcher on the mound here, they’re an eye-opening 3-10 at home in the playoffs over the past few years and Ron Washington will never out-manage Joe Maddon. James Shields posted a 2.23 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP when it counted most, over his last six starts. All year Shields was consistently hurling quality start after quality start with an elite strikeout rate and a high groundball rate. Derek Holland also had a tremendous year with 16 wins and just five losses. The difference is that Holland had far more implosions than Shields and one could even argue it was all feast or famine for Holland. In 32 starts, he was hit hard in 13 of them, while 19 were considered pure quality starts. Holland also showed a tendency of losing command and falling behind hitters with runners on base. Holland has made great strides this year by utilizing his other pitches more frequently. Prior to this season he had a lifetime ERA of 5.25 and that’s because he threw his fastball 74% of the time. He’s down to 64% of the time this year but this is a big playoff game and he could easily revert back to some bad habits of the past. Regardless, Shields is the superior pitcher, the Rays are rolling along and all of a sudden a whole lot of pressure is on these Rangers bats. Play: Tampa Bay +110 (Risking 2 units).

[timbob]

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

KANSAS STATE+3.5 over Baylor: Wow what a year that RG 3 is having for the Bears, as he has hit 85% of his passes and has more TD's (13) than incompletions (12), but he has yet to face a defense this tough. Sure the Bears rolled up 564 yards and 50 points vs TCU, but that was game 1 and the Horned Frogs had to replace a lot of talent on the defensive side. KSU comes in ranked 6th in total defense (246.3 ypg) and 7th in points allowed (10.3 ppg) and they are fresh off a big win on the road vs a tough Miami squad. The KSU defense has been stout, but their offense hasn't taken off yet as they rank 90th overall (345 ypg) and 84th in scoring (25 ppg), but they did put up 398 yards and 28 points last week vs a very good Miami defense and they will be taking on a Baylor defense that isn't very good. The Baylor defense is ranked 60th (363 ypg) overall and 72nd in points allowed (26.3), but vs FBS foes this defense ranks 99th overall (411 ypg) and 113th in points allowed (39.5 ppg). Last week this Baylor defense faced a Rice offense that was 105th in the nation, but allowed them to put up 31 points and 416 yards, plus the Owls were a solid 9-19 on third downs. As I said this is not a good defense. KSU is off a huge upset win, but don't expect a letdown here as they are playing their Big 12 opener vs a 16th ranked team. Baylor has the Edge on offense, but KSU has huge edges on defense and special team, plus they are at home and getting points. Smells like an outright upset to me. KEY TREND--- The Cats are 14-0 ATS with revenge in the first of BB home games.

4 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Northwestern +10 over ILLINOIS: Illinois is off to a fine 4-0 start, but 2 of those wins were vs FCS foes and 1 was vs MAC foe Western Michigan (they needed a 4th quarter rally) and all 4 of their wins so far have been at home. An interesting trend is that teams in the 5th game of a home stand are 0-5-1 ATS if they are playing off an ATS loss of 6 or more, plus we also note that the Cats are 10-1 ATS as dogs off a SU loss of 6 or more. The only real team that Illinois has played spo far and they needed a late comeback to beat ASU. Last year Illinois gave Northwestern their biggest defeat of the year, winning 48-27, but their was one important ingredient missing for the Cats in that one and that was QB Dan Persa. Dan Persa is considered by many as the best QB in the Big 10 and having the bye week to prepare and get himself ready for this one will really help. Actually he knew before the season began that this would be his return game so he has been studying plenty of film on the Illini just to get ready for this one. Last year before his injury he completed 73% of his passes for 2581 yards, with 15 TD's to just 4 INT's. This year Northwestern QB's have thrown for just 498 yards with 3 TD's and 1 INT. As you can see they are glad to have him back. The Illinois defense is very tough to run on, but they can be thrown upon as they are 74th vs the pass, allowing 231 ypg so far. The Cat's do play a bend but don't break style of defense as they are 86th in yards allowed (402 ypg) but just 33 in points allowed (19.7 ppg). This game is big for the Cats after getting crushed last year and with Persa back they should be able to keep it close, especially vs an Illinois team that may be a bit complacent playing their 5th in a row at home. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any game 4 road team if they are off a SU & ATS loss before their bye, if that loss was their initial loss of the year and as long as they were not dogs of more than 3 points in that loss. This has gone 13-2 the last 15 times it came up.


LOUISIANA TECH -4.5 over Hawaii: The Schedule has been tough for the rainbows in the early going as this will be their third mainland trip in the first 5 weeks. They are already 0-2 in these trips including a 20 point loss at UNLV, which is one of the worst teams in CFB. This high powered Hawaii offense comes in ranked 12th in passing (326.8 ypg), but just 56th overall (414 ypg), while a closer look shows us that vs FBS foes they are just 88th in total offense (340.3 ypg) and 41st in passing (265 ypg). Bryan Moniz is one of the better QB's around and he does have 11 TD's on the year, but 7 of those were in the first half of last week's game vs FCS foe Cal-Davis. This offense is good but hasn't really clicked yet vs the FBS and they should have more problems today vs a good Bulldog defense. Louisiana Tech comes in ranked 61st in total defense and 58th in points allowed vs FBS foes. This is a defense that will just get better as the season goes on and they should have a good showing vs a Hawaii offense that was able to put up just 20 points vs a BAD UNLV defense in their last road game. The LA Tech offense hasn't been that great, ranking just 84th in total offense, but this Hawaii defense has really struggled on the road allowing 40 points in each of their 2 mainland trips this year. La Tech has played in bad luck this year and they are 1-3, but those 3 losses have been by a combined 9 points. I see them putting forth their best effort of the year thus far vs a tired Hawaii squad and walk away with win of at least a TD. KEY TRENDS--- The Host is 7-0 ATS the last 7 in the series and LA Tech is 9-1 ATS in conference openers.

3 UNIT PLAYS

VIRGINIA TECH -7 over Clemson: No rest for this Clemson team as they must now travel to Blacksburg after facing FSU last week. The Clemson Tigers are 4-0 on the year, but it has not been easy for them. They were down at the half vs Troy, only won by 8 over FCS Wooford had a tough game vs Auburn before pulling away late and had a back and forth game vs FSU last week. The Clemson offense has been very good this year, ranking 7th overall (515 ypg) and 16th in scoring (38.7) vs FBS foes. The going won't be so easy vs this defense. The Hokie defense is ranked 4th overall (231 ypg) and 6th in points allowed 10 ppg and they are a much more dominant unit than Clemson has faced so far this year. Yes Clemson can score, but their defense has been bad this year, checking in at 89th overall (405 ypg) and 65th in points allowed (25 ppg), plus they are 85th vs the run, allowing 176 ypg. That isn't very good here vs a Hokie offense that is 30th in rushing at 211 ypg. The Tigers has a small offensive edge, but the Hokies have huge edges on defense and special teams, plus we also note that while Clemson is off 2 straight emotional home games vs Auburn and FSU, VA Tech has been getting ready for this one with 4 straight non-BSC schools. Look for a solid DD win by the Hokies in this one. KEY TRENDS--- The Hokies are 36-14 ATS as faves of 3.5 to 10 and 13-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive Unders.


Air Force +3.5 over NAVY: A lot of teams are at a disadvantage when facing the Naval Academy, but not this Air Force group as they both run the same Option offense. The Navy offense does come in ranked 4th in rushing at 358 ypg, but they don't have the better rushing offense on the field today as Air Force checks in with the top ground game as they have averaged 412 ypg on the ground so far. Not only can Air Force run, but they can throw a little as they have put up 153 ypg through the air so far, compared to Navy throwing for just 69 ypg. Ok we see that Air Force gets the offensive edge, but they also have a slight defense edge, especially vs the run as they are 9th vs the run, but Navy is 100th vs the run. Look for the Air Force offense to have the better showing here vs a Navy defense that is weak and really hasn't even played a great offense so far. Air Force wins outright. KEY TRENDS--- Navy is 2-11 ATS as a home favorite vs an opponent off a win, while Air Force is 17-3 ATS in road openers, plus 10-2 ATS as road dogs off a non-conference game.

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Penn State/ Indiana Under 48: The Penn State defense is back and playing some very good football right now as they come in ranked 8th overall (249 ypg) and 10th in points allowed (12.5 ppg). The offense for the lions hasn't gotten on track this year as they are 90th overall (346.5 ypg) and 84th in points allowed (25 ppg). The Indiana offense has been decent, putting up 27.5 ppg, but any one can do that vs the teams they've played thus far (Ball state, SC State, Virginia and North Texas). They won't come close to 25 points vs this defense. The Indiana defense has been OK, and they should be able to hold down this struggling Penn state offense that has averaged just 19.7 ppg vs FBS foes this year. Neither offense is playing well enough right now to expect this game to hit 49+ points. I expect Penn State to get NO MORE than 35 in this one and I really don't feel that Indiana can get 14 points vs this tough defense. I expect a game in the low 40's here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The OU is 18-46 when a road team allowed 75 or less rushing yards last game and are playing a team that gained 75 yards rushing or less last game, if the OU line is 42.5 to 49.

2 UNIT PLAYS

UCLA +21.5 over STANFORD: The Bruins are in revenge mode here after suffering their first home shutout loss since 1999 to these Cardinals last year. Stanford has a powerful offense with the best QB in the land in Andrew Luck, but a couple of his weapons are banged up as RB Chris Owusu and top WR Coby Fleener are both listed as questionable. The Bruin defense has struggled so far, but I do look for their best effort of the year. I mean how can ya not get up to play against Andrew Luck. Last week the Cardinal lost a very important part of their defense when LB Shayne Skov was lost for the year and he was one of the best in the nation at that position. He will be missed vs a UCLA offense that isn't that bad, putting up 411 ypg and 27 ppg thus far. I just don't see the Cardinal being able to win by more than 3 TD's in this one.

IOWA STATE +9 over Texas: I expected the Longhorns to be more dominant than they have been this year, but it hasn't panned out that way. Sure they blew out UCLA in their last game, but the Bruins also helped them with sloppy turnovers and poor special teams play. Sure the revenge factor is in play, but the Cyclones 3 games thus far have been decided by 34 points or less and I do feel that they can keep it close here. We also note that Game 4 Conference home dogs off a bye are 15-2 ATS, if they won their last game before their bye. State keeps it close here.

[timbob]

FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Saturday
Play Philadelphia (-215) over St. Louis (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 5:00 PM EST
Roy Halladay has won 12 of the last 15 day games and he has also won 18 of the last 21 games when the total posted is seven runs or less. Roy Halladay has won 9 of the last 10 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he has an ERA of 2.10 vs. St. Louis over his career.

Play Arizona (+125) over Milwaukee (Bonus)
Starts at 2:05 PM EST

Play Tampa Bay (+105) over Texas (Bonus)
Starts at 7:05 PM EST

[timbob]

Dwayne Bryant

3* Alabama-Florida under 43.5

2* Arkansas +2.5

2* Kent-Ohio under 46.5