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We’re going to play a single unit on St. louis tonight and a single unit on them to win the series. Cards are down 2-1 but a win tonight and they’ll go back to Philly tied 2-2 and then anything can happen with both clubs sending out their aces. First things first and that means the Cardinals have to win tonight and they have a great shot at doing so. At age 27, Edwin Jackson hasn't quite fulfilled the high expectations he's had placed on him. Having said that, he's been pretty good all year with a groundball bias profile a good strikeout rate and a 3.64 xERA. Pitching coach Dave Duncan has been working with him for a over two months now and Duncan is the best in the business that worked magic with young arms a lot less talented that Jackson. Of course Jackson could throw a gem tonight. Roy Oswalt went 9-10 with a club that won a lot more games than they lost. That’s not to say Oswalt is a liability but he’s certainly no better than Jackson and in fact, the two starters today have very similar numbers. Oswalt’s strikeout rate is way down from previous years and his 1.34 WHIP is very average. In a game that is a complete toss-up, the Cardinals definitely have a chance to take this back to Philly and then we’ll have other options to “free roll” or let it ride at a huge price. Play: St. Louis +461 to win series (Risking 1 unit). Play: St. Louis +108 to win game 4 (Risking 2 units)
2* MLB* Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS TO WIN -104 ML
(Note: I'm risking 2.08 units to win 2 units)
Arizona extended their playoffs with a 8-1 victory in front of their home crowd last night, and look to force a Game 5 back in Milwaukee with another win here tonight. The D'backs are sending Joe Saunders to the mound, while the Brewers will counter with southpaw Randy Wolf. These two pitchers have freakishly similar numbers on the season. Saunders is 12-13 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and .266 opponents batting average. Randy Wolf is 13-10 on the season with a 3.69 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .266 opponents batting average. Wolf has lost to Arizona twice this season, allowing 10 runs in 13.1 innings of work, although he does have solid career numbers against the Dbacks. Saunders faced the Brewers once allowing 2 runs in 7 innings of work in a no decision. With a good pitching match up tonight we have to look at a few key stats that in my opinion give us a lot of value in tonight's match up. The Diamondbacks are coming off a big confident boosting victory last night, and are 52-25 in their last 77 games following a win. Also note that the Dbacks are 42-20 in their last 60 home games, 16-5 in their last 21 home games vs a team with a losing road record, and 12-4 in their last 16 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Saunders' last 5 starts. Overall the Dbacks are 52-30 at home this season. Milwaukee was just 39-43 on the road this year, although they did improve in the second half. The Brewers are 11-23 in their last 34 games as a road underdog. This game is bouncing around "pick'em" odds tonight, which gives us value on the home side. Arizona always plays well at home, and coming off a big win last night are feeling good about tonight's game as they look to force a Game 5. Lay it down on the Dbacks with confidence tonight for a 2 unit play.
The Cardinals had 14 guys left on base yesterday in a game which they did outplay the Phillies. The postseason is all about taking advantage of opportunities. The Phillies had a pinch hitter off the bench win that game for them. This team has the experience needed to move on to the next round. Philadelphia knows they got away with one yesterday and will leave no doubt tonight. No team wants to bring a series back home for one game. The Phillies will win this on the road.
Arizona Diamondbacks -103
Milwaukee is a great home team. That is really the only thing they have. As long as they win their home games they will be OK, but Arizona now has the momentum and their fans were rocking last night in the desert. The ballpark had an electric atmosphere that the players fed off. I look for similar results tonight. This game should go to 5 back in Milwaukee. Take Arizona.
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