10-13-11

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HOT LINES

Thursday's Best MLB Bets

Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-175, 7.5)

As much as Justin Verlander lobbied to start Wednesday’s Game 4, he had to know deep down that there was no way Jim Leyland was going to change his mind.

Leyland wants to keep his ace on a regular pitching schedule – even though weather delays have already thrown a wrench in that plan. You can hardly blame the skipper considering Verlander has allowed seven runs over his last two starts.

"My last start my body and my arm didn't feel great,” Verlander told reporters. “But that happened plenty of times throughout the season. It's going to happen. I've worked real hard to be strong this time of year. And I feel like I am. I don't think there's anything else I can do. I feel good. Just need to get my mechanics in order. I've done everything I can possibly do to get myself prepared."

Detroit’s pitching gave the Tigers a shot on Wednesday, but you have to wonder what might have been if Verlander did go in Game 4. At any rate, the Rangers fought back from a 2-0 deficit and Nelson Cruz came through again in extra innings to give Texas a 7-3 win and a 3-1 series lead on Wednesday night.

We have a lot of confidence in Verlander in this one, but -175 is pretty steep even with the Tigers set to bring out all the stops as they sit on the brink of elimination.

Even if Verlander doesn't go deep - which we expect him to - the Tigers are going to unload the bullpen. We'll jump on the under.

PICK: Under

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MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Verlander, Tigers Battle Rangers ALCS Game 5 Preview
By Bruce Marshall


Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-175, 7.5)

Well, Detroit at least guaranteed there would be a Game 5 of the ALCS when beating Texas by a 5-2 count in Tuesday’s Game 3.

Moreover, they assured ace and likely AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander one more outing in this series. Not to mention assuring Tigers fans of at least two more trips to Comerica Park, where the eyeglasses have been thankfully been restored to the Ernie Harwell statue at the entrance to the ballyard.

Depending upon Wednesday’s result, the Tigers can either put themselves in a position to take a 3-2 lead back to Arlington, or be fighting to stay alive in a series that Texas would be able to wrap up if it prevailed in Game 4. Such are the important dynamics for this Game 5 matchup on Thursday at colorful Comerica. First pitch is slated at 4:19 p.m. (ET). TV coverage will be provided by Fox, with Joe Buck and Tim McCarver (just off of the DL himself) on the call.

As mentioned, Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA in regular season) will get another chance at the Rangers after losing a rain-delayed Game 1 in Arlington last Saturday. Again, he will be opposed by Texas lefty C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA in regular season).

It’s worth noting, however, that neither Verlander nor Rangers ace Wilson have been setting the world on fire in the postseason.

As for Verlander, he hasn’t looked his normal dominant self in the playoffs, allowing eight runs (all earned), 12 hits and five walks over 13 IP (6.75 ERA), although he did get the win in a crucial Game 3 over the Yanks in the ALDS. Detroit can be somewhat encouraged, however, by Verlander’s 6-2 mark and 2.31 ERA over his career vs. Texas. Not to mention his 10-3 record, 0.94 WHIP, and .198 OBA at Comerica during the regular season.

Meanwhile, Wilson has not exactly been overpowering lately, either, allowing ten runs (eight earned) and 13 hits over only 9 2/3 IP in a pair of games vs. the Rays and Tigers, with the latter outing interrupted by rain delays and limiting him to just 4 2/3 IP last Saturday at Rangers Ballpark.

In two starts vs. the Tigers this season, Wilson has allowed 12 hits and 10 runs (seven of those earned) in just 11 1/3 IP, with an ERA at a hefty 5.56.

Of some concern to the Tigers is the status of DH Victor Martinez, who strained an intercostal muscle on a home run swing in Game 3 on Tuesday.

There were several positive signs for the Tigers in Game 3, especially regarding an offense that awakened after a sleepy first two games in Texas. Aside from Martinez hitting his homer, Miguel Cabrera and his bat resurfaced with a long home run and Austin Jackson cranked out three hits as the Tigers clawed back into the series.

Such fireworks are crucial because the Detroit offense has been missing a couple of capable components. One of those, OF Delmon Young, sat out Game 3 because of a sore oblique and is listed as day-to-day by manager Jim Leyland. That’s more encouraging than the status of OF Magglio Ordoñez, who is out for the duration of the playoffs with a broken ankle.

Note that the Tigers have also received solid work from their bullpen combo of set-up man Joaquin Benoit and closer Jose Valverde, who have combined to allow just two hits and no runs over five innings of work in the last two games of this series. This might prove to be a deciding advantage for the Tigers, especially since Texas manager Ron Washington is contemplating some adjustments in his bullpen, specifically regarding set-up man Koji Uehara, who has not been effective in his role lately.

As for the Rangers, also watch the status of 3B Adrian Beltre, who was limping on a sore knee during Tuesday’s Game 3, limiting his range somewhat at the hot corner.

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ICE PICKS

Thursday's Best NHL Bets

Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins (-125, N/A)

This time there won’t be any HBO cameras hanging around as the Capitals and Penguins meet for the first time of the season and the matchup sounds like it will be without considerable star power too.

Pittsburgh captain Sidney Crosby still hasn’t been cleared for contact and Evegeni Malkin’s surgically repaired knee is already giving him problems. He has practiced gingerly over the past couple of days but remains questionable for Thursday.

Not like that has slowed the Pens, who have taken seven out of a possible eight points so far with Kris Letang, Jordan Staal and Matt Cooke leading the way.

"We're obviously on the same page. Diving out there, guys are blocking shots," Cooke told reporters. "(Marc-Andre Fleury) and (Brent Johnson) are both standing on their heads and that makes it fun.”

Meanwhile, the Capitals look sloppy early this season and have their depth players to thank for their last two extra-time wins.

This early in the season, we’ll go with a system that’s working over star power any day of the week.

PICK: Pittsburgh


St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars (-140, 5.5)

St. Louis is going to be a team to be reckoned with this season. The Blues have a nasty group of talented forwards that love to run opposing defenseman through the back of the rink and you can see their lines are starting to gel.

They also have a couple of standout players on the blue line like Kevin Shattenkirk and Alex Pietrangelo and Jaroslav Halak is looking to make a statement between the pipes this season.

Dallas is just trying to get used to one another after GM Joe Nieuwendyk brought in five new forwards and two defenseman in a major offseason overhaul. One of the pieces that remains the same is goaltender Kari Lehtonen, who doesn’t get enough credit.

He made 40 saves to help the Stars steal a win over the Coyotes on Monday, holding the fort for the Stars as they managed just 25 shots on the other goal. Lehtonen could have some more nights like that ahead of him, probably starting Thursday against this sparkplug Blues club.

PICK: Saint Louis

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NHL NEWS AND NOTES
Early Excitement As Penguins, Capitals Renew Rivalry
By Brian Hunter


Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins (-125, N/A)
CAPITALS (2-0-0) at PENGUINS (3-0-1)

TV: NHLN-US, CSN-DC, ROOT (HD)

SEASON SERIES: First of four meetings. The Penguins started off last season's series with a victory, but the Capitals took three straight after that -- a 3-1 win in the 2011 Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic at Heinz Field on New Year's Day, then a pair of shutouts by Michal Neuvirth in a 16-day span during February. Mike Knuble's 3 goals led all scorers.

BIG STORY: We're only one week into the 2011-12 season, but Pittsburgh and Washington have already set the stage for the continuation of their rivalry by coming in leading their respective divisions without a regulation defeat between them. The Penguins collected five of six points on a season-opening trip through western Canada, then won their home opener over the Panthers. The Capitals scored 10 goals in taking barnburners against two of their Southeast rivals, the Hurricanes and Lightning.

TEAM SCOPE:

CAPITALS: Last season Washington cut down on its goals against, but that seemed to come at the expense of its formerly explosive offense. Through two games this season, the opposite appears to be the case. The Capitals could certainly stand to tighten up defensively after allowing eight goals to the Canes and Bolts, but nobody's complaining they aren't putting the puck in the net. Jason Chimera scored a pair of third-period goals Monday against Tampa Bay and Matt Hendricks netted the shootout winner in a 6-5 triumph at Verizon Center.

"I guess there was a little sense of revenge, but there's 80 games left in the season, though," Hendricks said of beating the team that swept Washington out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs last spring. "To win these divisional games are big for us. We look forward to the next one."

PENGUINS: Despite getting just one day off after returning from its three-games-in-four-nights road trip and having to play the home opener without Evgeni Malkin, who suffered a lower-body injury in Calgary, there was no stopping Pittsburgh on Tuesday. Four different players had goals and nine scored at least one point as the Penguins doubled up the Panthers, 4-2. So far they've picked right up where they left off last season, getting contributions from around the lineup to compensate for the absence of key pieces.

"We're obviously on the same page. Diving out there, guys are blocking shots," said Matt Cooke, one of Tuesday's goal scorers. "(Marc-Andre Fleury) and (Brent Johnson) are both standing on their heads and that makes it fun. We're all working together as a unit trying to kill penalties."

WHO'S HOT: Chimera, whose career high for goals in a season is 17, already has 3 goals in the Capitals' two games. His first goal against the Lightning was the 100th of his career. … Letang picked up an assist against the Panthers and has points in all four games this season (1-5-6) to lead the Penguins in scoring. Dupuis had a goal and an assist, and his 4 points tie Jordan Staal for second on the team.

INJURY REPORT: Washington defensemen Tom Poti (groin) and John Erskine (shoulder) are on injured reserve. … Malkin (lower body) and defenseman Brooks Orpik (hernia surgery) are day-to-day for Pittsburgh, while forward Sidney Crosby remains on injured reserve but could find himself closer to returning after seeing his doctors at some point this week.

STAT PACK: Over two games, the Capitals have dressed 19 skaters and 15 of them have recorded at least one point. … The Penguins have faced 16 shorthanded situations over their four games, and have killed them all. They led the NHL in penalty-killing last season.

PUCK DROP: The two teams have planned a joint effort to raise money for the families of Lokomotiv Yaroslavl, the KHL team whose plane crashed Sept. 7 in Russia. Pittsburgh and Washington players will wear jerseys with commemorative Lokomotiv patches at the game, then autograph the game-worn and game-issued jerseys afterward and auction them off at NHL.com. All proceeds will benefit the Lokomotiv players' children and families.

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Thursday’s Betting Tips: Can USC Keep Covering vs. Cal?

Who's Hot

MLB: Texas is 6-1 in its last seven road games.

NCAAF: San Diego State is 7-1 against the spread following an ATS loss.

NCAAF: USC has covered in five of its last six matchups with Cal.

NHL: Calgary has won four of its last five games against Montreal.

NHL: New Jersey has won 17 of its last 22 home games.

Who’s Not

MLB: The under is 2-7 in Detroit's last nine home games.

NCAAF: Air Force is 1-7 against the spread in its last eight conference games.

NCAAF: Just one of the last seven meetings between Cal and USC has played under.

NHL: Edmonton has won eight of its last 23 games against Minnesota.

NHL: Phoenix is just 3-11-1 in its last 15 games in Nashville.

Key Stat

13 - Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander has thrown just 13 innings over the past two weeks ahead of Thursday's Game 5 start. That's part of the reason he wanted the ball Wednesday night, but manager Jim Leyland insisted on keeping him on his regular pitching schedule.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Michal Neuvirth, Washington Capitals - The goaltender is dealing with a lower-body injury and is questionable to play in Thursday's game against the Pittsburgh Penguins, according to coach Bruce Boudreau. Neuvirth did not practice on Wednesday, but Boudreau admitted that there is a "good chance" the netminder gets the call if he skates on Thursday. The 23-year-old won his lone start of the season and is 2-0-1 in three career games versus the Penguins. Tomas Vokoun, who was supposed to be the club’s starter, gave up five goals in his first start of the season against Tampa Bay.

Game Of The Day

Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-175, 7.5)

Notable Quotable

“Everybody has those games every year or two where even if you call a play that’s not supposed to work, somebody makes a great play or they get a ball tipped. It was just one of those games where everything went our way and nothing went their way. That’s why it was 42-0 at half.” – USC coach Lane Kiffin on last year’s 48-14 win over Cal as a 2-point favorite. The Trojans are 3-point road favorites Thursday at Cal.

Tips And Notes

The Atlanta Falcons ruled out rookie wide receiver Julio Jones for Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers on Wednesday. The sixth overall pick of the 2011 draft, Jones is nursing a hamstring injury which he suffered in Sunday night's loss to the Green Bay Packers. "He worked out with our training staff today," coach Mike Smith told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Wednesday. "He did some running around. He’s already back out on the field working. We are hoping that after this week, we’ll get him back the following week." Harry Douglas will replace the 22-year-old Jones, who has 25 receptions for 358 yards in five games this season. Douglas has just 11 catches for 80 yards this season. The Falcons are set as 4.5-point favorites at home to Carolina this week.

Better than 57 percent of Covers.com Consensus bettors are backing Air Force in its Thursday night matchup with San Diego State. The Falcons have been hovering anywhere between -6 and -7 since Tuesday, so keep a close eye on the line to see where it settles around the key number before the kickoff. Air Force has covered the number in just one of its last five, while the Aztecs are riding a 1-3 slump against the spread.

Over bettors will be happy to know that Jeff Nelson is scheduled to be behind the plate for Game 5 of the ALCS. The over is 20-12 when Nelson is calling balls and strikes this season. The over is also 7-2-1 in his last 10. Oddsmakers have Detroit as an early -175 favorite against Detroit with the total at 7.5.

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NCAA Football Game Picks

USC at California

The Bears look to take advantage of a USC team that is coming off a 48-41 win over Arizona and is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. California is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: California (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's lined games.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 13
Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (10/10)

Game 101-102: San Diego State at Air Force (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 88.357; Air Force 92.569
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 4; 53
Vegas Line: Air Force by 7; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+7); Under

Game 103-104: USC at California (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 92.351; California 91.946
Dunkel Line: Even; 62
Vegas Line: USC by 3 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (+3 1/2); Over

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DCI

Season
Straight Up: 467-159 (.746)
ATS: 181-189 (.489)
ATS Vary Units: 1135-1237 (.478)
Over/Under: 182-184 (.497)
Over/Under Vary Units: 463-470 (.496)

Thursday, October 13, 2011
Mountain West Conference
AIR FORCE 36, San Diego State 30
Pacific-12 Conference
Usc 31, CALIFORNIA 30

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JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Saturday ... Take Rice +5 over Marshall

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Joe wiz
500,000* Thursday Night Parlay Oddsmaker Mistake Lock:

USC -3 and SD ST +7.
Says they both win by double digits easily.

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Thursday

Play Texas (+145) over Detroit (Top MLB Play)
Starts at 4:15 PM EST

CJ Wilson has won 15 of the last 21 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has also won 3 of the last 4 road games as an underdog of +125 to +150. CJ Wilson has won 10 of the last 15 games vs. AL Central Division Opponents and he has an ERA of 2.23 in road games this season.


Play Milwaukee (+125) over St. Louis (Bonus MLB Play)


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NHL Hockey Thursday

Play LA Kings (-115) over New Jersey (Top NHL Play)

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Marc Lawrence

3 Units California

When we last saw the Berkeley bunch they held one-point first-half lead last Thursday at Eugene as 24-points dogs. However, Oregon had Cal ducking for non-cover in a 29-0 second-half blitz. Despite the disappointing performance, we'll give Jeff Tedford's Jekyll and Hyde Bears another chance. While Lane Kiffin has USC off to a 4-1 start, his defense has been lit up for 84 points by the state of Arizona over the past two games. Add Kiffin's inability to duplicate big offensive numbers (1-7 ATS after scoring 48 or more points), along with Tedford's 18-6 SU and 16-5 ATS mark at home in games in which his team's win percentage is .600 or less on the season, including 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS when hosting a foe that scored 48 or more points in its last game in this role, and it makes it easy to understand why we're not about to kick these wounded Bears. We recommend a 3-unit play on California.

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Sean Murphy

Canadiens

Kings

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SPORTS WAGERS

Edmonton +148 over MINNESOTA

The Wild get Pierre-Marc Bouchard back after he served his two-game suspension but that’s not going to deter us from backing the Oilers. For one, Minnesota has not proved that they’re worthy of this tag for three years now and counting. They were completely dominated by the Senators in its last game and thus far they’ve played Ottawa, the Islanders and Columbus, not exactly the cream of the crop. The Wild has one win in three games. The Oilers are only going to get better as the weeks, months and years past. This is a very young and talented group that could get on a roll. The Oilers are going to win more games than they won a year ago. They’re also going to make mistakes and lose at least half their games and likely more. However, opening the year with a win over Pittsburgh is sweet for these guys and there’s no reason they can’t get this proverbial monkey off their backs. The bottom line here is value against a Minnesota club that scares nobody. Play: Edmonton +148 (Risking 2 units).


N.Y. ISLANDERS +118 over Tampa Bay

The Lightning has given up 10 goals over its last two games and has been outshot 85-54 over those two games. Defensively, this is a team that could be in trouble. The second pairing of Pavel Kubina and Mattias Ohlund offers a veteran presence but at the age of 34 and 35, respectively, the duo is showing the signs of age and wear and tear. The league is now all about speed and talent and this year’s edition of the Lightning lacks the defense to combat it. They do play a frustrating 1-3-1 variation of the trap but this is a team that surprised many last year and they won’t sneak up on anyone this year. The goaltending duo of Dwayne Roloson (age 42) and Mathieu Garon might be this NHL's biggest liability in net. Can you think of a worse duo? The Islanders have not been sharp in two games against the Wild and Panthers. However, New York has its share of impressive youngsters, especially at forward with guys like John Tavares, Kyle Okposo, Michael Grabner, Pierre Parenteau, Matt Moulson, Josh Bailey and the highly- touted Nino Niederreiter. Also, the Isles have their No. 1 defenseman back in Mark Streit and it’s only a matter of time before the Islanders start popping in some goals and it could very well begin here. Play: N.Y. Islanders +118 (Risking 2 units).


Los Angeles/NEW JERSEY Over 5

When you think of the Devils you think defense but that was then and this is now. New Jersey is going to give up goals and plenty of them because they’re not strong behind the blue-line and they’re weaker in net when Marty Brodeur starts. The Kings are coming off two games in Europe to open the year in which they faced the Sabres and Ryan Miller and the Rangers and Henrik Lundqvist. They scored just five times in those two games, which isn’t bad but the going gets a whole lot easier against Brodeur and the Devils. Don’t be surprised to see the Kings score five on their own tonight. The Kings have four potential prolific point getters in Anze Kopitar, Simon Gagne, Mike Richards and Dustin Brown. Justin Williams is a 60-point guy and Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson can get them the puck. This is a low number with small juice and one that should not be missed. Play: Los Angeles/New Jersey over 5 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).


St. Louis –104 over DALLAS

The puck line strongly suggests that the Blues will not lose this game in regulation and therefore we’ll play it that way. On the puck line, the Stars are -½ +159 while the Blue Notes are +½ -173 and that’s a strong enticement to sway any money off the Blues and onto the Stars. You can break it down all you want and analyze even more. It really does not matter, as there’s nothing to analyze. The line says it all and sometimes “reading between the lines” is all the info one need’s to make an intelligent bet. Play: St. Louis –104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

Passing MLB

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Vincent Rizzo sports,

Comp Play,
Auburn +2

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BRYAN LEONARD
THURSDAY NIGHT MOUNTAIN WEST SHOWDOWN SD State Aztecs