10-13-11

[timbob]

ARTHUR RALPH SPORTS

3% TROPHY PLAY
2 TEAM PARLAY: Air Force Falcons -7 & California Golden Bears +3.5

[timbob]

MLB PREDICTIONS

2* MLB* Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers - TIGERS TO WIN (-159) *AFTERNOON GAME*
(Note: I'm risking 3.18 units to win 2 units)
The Rangers took Game 4 going up 3-1, but the Tigers are hoping to head back to Texas, and have their ace on the mound in Game 5. Justin Verlander is back on the mound after 4 days rest and looks to give his team a chance at forcing a 6th game. Of course Verlander always gives the Tigers a chance at winning, as they are 50-23 in his last 73 starts, 40-14 in his last 54 starts as a favorite, and 39-12 in his last 51 home starts. Like mentioned in my 5 Star write up, the Tigers do a good job bouncing back from losses as they are 35-16 in their last 51 games following a loss. Note that the Tigers are also 45-12 in their last 57 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. There isn't much negative to say about CJ Wilson, who will be on the mound for the Rangers, but he is just 6-13 in his last 19 road starts vs a team with a winning record, and 2-5 in his last 7 starts as a road underdog. The Rangers are 5-17 in their last 22 meetings with Detroit at Comerica Park. Detroit's manager Jim Leyland seemed to have a positive attitude in post game and I expect him to bring that into the locker room to keep the spirits up. Detroit knows that they send their ace to the mound in front of their home crowd, where he is lights out, and if they can force another game anything can happen. I don't see the Tigers going down easily especially with Verlander on the mound. I'm laying some chalk here on the home team, but I like the price we are getting - I'm making this a 2 unit play.

[timbob]

DOC SPORTS

5 GOW
Over 8.5 Runs Milwaukee vs. St. Louis

[timbob]

Jason sharpe

4* mlb detroit

[timbob]

Richie carrera

nhl: 10 dimes
nashville -150

[timbob]

JOHN CHANG

---Start Time 9:00 PM EST---
USC Trojans -3 over CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS, 10 dimes
Zach Maynard is one of my least favorite signal callers. I wouldn't trust this kid to throw a temper tantrum, much less a football. While he's got a great receiver in Keenan Allen, the Cal offense simply doesn't have the capability to keep up with the more talented USC passing attack. Matt Barkley is a solid game manager with better numbers and more experience against tough opponents. Plus, he's got an outstanding receiving corps featuring quite possibly the best receiver in the land. If Cal's starting corner Marc Anthony stays out with a shoulder injury, which is the prediction now, then look for Barkley to attack Anthony's likely replacement, freshman Stefan McClure. The Golden Bears have dropped seven in a row to USC, and I see too much in favor of the Trojans to go against them here. Take the road chalk.

---Start Time 8:05 PM EST---
ST LOUIS CARDINALS (-135, list both pitchers) over Milwaukee Brewers, 5 dimes

[timbob]

INDIAN COWBOY

4* MLB Milwaukee/St. Louis OVER 8.5

[timbob]

Benjamin lee Eckstein "Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB AL/NL Championship Playoffs

Ben lee won on Wednesday with the Cardnials -$150/Brewers.

For Thursday "Mr Chalk" likes the Tigers -$150/Rangers.

"Mr Chalk" is 10-4 + $385 for the 2011 MLB AL/NL Playoffs.

[timbob]

INFO PLAYS

7* Brewers / Cardinals Over 8½

[timbob]

Tom Freese

15* Tigers
15* Cards

10* Ottawa
10* Nashville

[timbob]

SEAN MURPHY

10* NHL Home Cooking Blowout
MONTREAL CANADIENS


NHL Road Warrior 'Special'
LA KINGS


comp Avs/Sens over 5.5

[timbob]

WEST CAPPER

I don’t give the Tigers much chance to come back from a 3-1 hole and win this series, but tonight’s game is squarely on Justin Verlander’s shoulders. Relievers Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit are unavailable for tonight’s game, so the season rest’s on the shoulder’s of the best pitcher in baseball. If there is an over/under bet on the amount of pitches Verlander will throw tonight, it wouldn’t matter the number, the bet would be over.

Verlander has been allowed 13 runs over his last 20 innings, but I don’t put much value in those recent numbers. He also didn’t have a single 1-2-3 inning in game one of this series, but with the rain delays he had trouble finding a routine. Some people are speculating it’s because he threw a MLB leading 251 innings during the regular season, but Justin Verlander is the best arm in the game for a reason. There is a reason this guy makes $12.75 million this year and will make $20 million next season, it’s to win a game just like tonight. I didn’t think Verlander would lose this entire postseason, and I certainly don’t think he will allow the Tigers to lose two consecutive starts.

The only knock on the Tigers for today’s game is the health of their hitters. Delmon Young has gone 0-for-8 since straining his oblique, Victor Martinez didn’t have good swings last night and only managed a groundball single in five trips. Alex Avila is hurting, and Dirks and Kelly are lefty bats that should be neutirilized by Wilson.
CJ Wilson threw a gem in game one against the Tigers, until the rain delay took him off his game. Wilson was very effective using his cutter to perfection to dominate the Tigers hitters in Arlington. His road numbers were much better than his home numbers, with his ERA much lower (2.31 opposed to 3.69 at home) and only allowing six homeruns on the road all season. He had a 2.56 ERA post all-star break and has been one of the best in the game down the stretch. He has struggled lately with command of his curveball, so getting ahead in the count with his cutter will be key.

I don’t see either offense scoring much today. The Tigers hitters are so banged up, and nobody has had great success in their career against Wilson. Delmon Young (3-for-15), Johnny Peralta (1-for-14), Victor Martinez (3-for-17) all have struggled. On the other hand, I think Verlander shows today why he is the best pitcher in baseball and limits the Rangers hitters. Kinsler (3-for-18), Napoli (3-for-15) have struggled historically against Verlander, while Hamilton and Beltre have enjoyed some decent success.

I love playing the Tigers at home in day games against lefties, and that’s the exact situation we have today. Verlander will throw 120+ pitches as the Tigers try to use him and Coke today, and we’ll be headed to Arlington. The public is all over the Tigers because it’s Verlander and a “must-win” situation, so the value isn’t completely there. Verlander hasn’t lost back-to-back starts since April, and he hasn’t lost at home since July. I expected this line to be around -120 (and if it was we would be going larger), but take the Tigers at -150 for 3***. Also take the under 7 runs for 1*.

BREWERS @ CARDINALS
The Brewers are in desperate need of a well pitched game on the road this series, and that falls into the hands of Randy Wolf. Wolf was awful in game four against the Diamondbacks, and has allowed 17 runs in his last 14 innings. Wolf went 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA on the road, but his strikeout and walk rates were much better on the road. He’ll need to mix his pitches early, and Wolf will be on a short leash tonight.

Kyle Lohse will be looking to provide a big win for the Cardinals, whose bullpen saved the game last night in a huge effort. Lohse had a solid year, posting a 3.39 ERA and was very effective early against the Phillies last round. In two home starts against the Brewers this year, he allowed just one run in 14 innings and has kept Prince Fielder quiet (6-for-26 with no home runs). Lohse doesn’t have dominating stuff, but relies heavily on his defense and throwing strikes with his changeup. He hasn’t pitched in 12 days, so his command could be off early.

Albert Pujols has absolutely dominated this series, and expect the Brewers to pitch around him the rest of the series. Holliday has eight strikeouts this postseason, and Berkman is hitting .214 this postseason. Essentially Pujols and David Freese have beaten the Brewers this series.

The Cardinals are playing with such high confidence and are at home, so generally I would lean toward the home team facing a soft lefty in this game. But something tells me this entire series changes hands tonight and Wolf surprises everyone with a solid performance. He hasn’t pitched in eight days, and the veteran lefty is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his last two starts at Busch. Loshe is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts at Busch Stadium, so I think both pitchers surprise tonight and hold the offenses to less runs than expected. Both guys gave up 5+ runs in their last start, so this total is a little inflated due to public perception. We are going to play the Brewers (+120) for 1* unit and the under 8.5 runs for 1* unit. If the total goes to 9, then we’ll play the under 9 for 2** units.

[timbob]

Sports Handicapper King

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
10* San Diego State +7

NHL HOCKEY
10* LA Kings

comp Detroit Tigers

[timbob]

MADDUX SPORTS

10* Detroit Tigers

10* CALIFORNIA +3.5

comp USC & Cal Over 58

[timbob]

RANDY BRUCE

MLB: 5 dimes
Brewers/Cardinals Over 8.5, -115


NCAA Football: 5 dimes
USC -3