10-13-11

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Lance Blankenship

San Diego St. at Air Force
Pick: Over 58.5

Both Air Force and San Diego State score a lot of points and give up a lot of points which is what leads us to believe the game will go over. Both of these defenses are giving up over 400 yards per game and Air Force is allowing teams to score over 30 points per game. Enough said.

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STATFOX

NLCS Game 4 - St. Louis leads series 2-1
First pitch: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -135, Milwaukee +125, Total: 8.5


MILWAUKEE is 45-25 (64.3%, +19.0 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.1, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*).

MILWAUKEE is 57-28 (67.1%, +23.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.6, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*).

Wolf (13-10, 3.69 ERA in the regular season) was knocked around in Arizona in his Game 4 NLDS start, allowing seven runs and 11 base runners, including two home runs, in just three innings. It was a third straight ugly outing for Wolf, who’s now allowed 17 runs and 34 base runners over his past 14.2 innings (10.43 ERA, 2.32 WHIP).

But the lefty threw a great game in St. Louis a month ago, holding the Cardinals to one run over eight innings in a victory. He also threw eight innings of one-run ball in a victory at Busch Stadium in August and has won four of his past five starts in St. Louis.

Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA in the regular season) finished the regular season strong, but did not pitch well in the NLDS, allowing six runs (five earned) over 5.1 innings in Philadelphia.

Lohse’s overall track record against Milwaukee is not good (4-8, 4.89 ERA in 17 career starts) but the results in St. Louis have been more encouraging. His six innings of shutout ball on September 6 was the Cards’ first Busch Stadium win over the Brewers with Lohse on the mound. But he’s made five quality starts in six outings against the Brewers in St. Louis, posting a 2.77 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in these 39 innings against Milwaukee.

The Cardinals can move one game closer to avoiding a return trip to Milwaukee when they host the Brewers for Game 4 of the NLCS Thursday night.

With St. Louis’ Game 3 win, the Brewers’ road losing streak ran to four and they fell to 39-45 (-8.1 Units) away from home of the year. But this was a team that went 4-4 in St. Louis during the regular season, and Game 4 starter Randy Wolf has had back-to-back excellent road starts against the Cards. He and Cardinals righty Kyle Lohse make the pitching matchup in this game very even, especially with both bullpens throwing well. And in a matchup that’s close to a coin flip, underdog MILWAUKEE is the pick.

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JOHN RYAN
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers (MLB) - 4:19 PM EDT
Pick: Money Line: 139 Texas Rangers

15* graded play on Texas as they take on Detroit in Game 5 of the ALCS set to start at 4:15 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. So much of this line is based on Verlander throwing extremely well against very strong Texas lineup. Texas has a commanding, almost insurmountable lead in this series and Detroit’s lineup is looking more like a MASH unit. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 45-18 making 32.8 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on road teams having won 12 or more of their last 15 games in October games. This system is 3-1 this season. Verlander is arguably the best starter in the Al and will in the Cy Young. However, the Texas lineup that has not holes has done well against strong control type starters like Verlander. They are a solid 37-13 (+24.4 Units) against the money line facing an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season. Moreover, Texas is 28-13 (+10.7 Units) against the money line on a good fielding streak posting 10 straight games with one or less errors this season; 22-9 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season; 35-18 (+11.5 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more this season. Take Texas to advance to the World Series.

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Parlay King

Today it is to tease Air Force, Air Force UNDER, and USC UNDER. Says to do a 3 team 6 point teaser

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BEST SPORTS PICKS

USC Trojans -3

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PHD PICKS

California Golden Bears UNDER 58

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ROBERT FERRRINGO

4 UNITS Saint Louis Blues -105 ML
2 UNITS Calgary Flames +105 ML

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ICEMAN

4*Saint Louis Blues -115 ML

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Prediction Machine


SD St is 56% below the minimum for a play.