10-14-11

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Friday

San Jose/LA Kings over 5.5

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Hondo

The Tigers passed their roarschach test last night, but Hondo crashed with Air Force and Cal so the big red inkblot grew to 2,615 kuntzes.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will put the Warriors to work for him -- 20 units on Hawaii to know the way to a cover in San Jose.

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DCI INDEX

Western Athletic Conference
Hawai'i 41, SAN JOSE STATE 26

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DUNKEL INDEX

Game 105-106: Hawaii at San Jose State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 87.972; San Jose State 78.137
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 10; 63
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 6; 55
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-6); Over

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BANG THE BOOK

Friday's Best CFB Bet

Hawaii Warriors at San Jose State Spartans (+6, 55.5)

WAC rivals duke it out on Friday night in San Jose in college football betting action, as the San Jose State Spartans host the Hawaii Warriors.

Every time the Warriors go on the road, they have to deal with some tremendous problems. First off, they’re virtually always relatively square on the NCAA football odds, and they have the longest road trips of any team in the WAC (save for potentially the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs). It’s difficult to prepare for this team because of this run and gun offense, but the truth of the matter is that it is a one dimensional ‘O’. However, QB Bryant Moniz is running this offense with stunning efficiency, resembling one of the quarterbacks right before him, QB Colt Brennan, one of the best players in the history of the school. Moniz has thrown for 1,578 yards and 15 TDs against just one pick. That’s a phenomenal TD/INT ratio in itself, but factoring in the fact that he has thrown a whopping 209 passes already is all the more impressive. Hawaii throws the ball 70 percent of the time, and to think that Moniz has only turned the ball over once in five games is incredible.

San Jose State hasn’t had a great year at 2-4, but at least it has won some games, something that it hasn’t been able to say a heck of a lot of the past couple of years. What’s more important though, is that the Spartans really are staying competitive. There has only been one game this year in which they have been beaten by more than two touchdowns, and that came against the Stanford Cardinal right at the start of the season. This offense is still iffy at 347.5 yards per game, but that’s a tremendous improvement from years past as well. The question is this one is whether RB Brandon Rutley is going to be in the backfield. He missed last week’s loss against the BYU Cougars, but he still leads the team in rushing with 519 yards and total touchdowns with six. Again, the defense has been iffy, but not as atrocious as it has been in years past. Allowing 414.5 yards per game is worse than reality, as the majority of the damage came in the team’s worst game against Stanford. We’d be surprised if Hawaii accounted for 400 yards on this offense without a truly amazing game by Moniz.

Hawaii Warriors @ San Jose State Spartans Pick: Home is where the heart is for the Spartans, and we think that they, at minimum, are going to stick around in this game. The WAC is wide open this year, and San Jose State is going to potentially make a real case to be in a bowl game by the end of the season.

PICK: San Jose State +6

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CFB NEWS AND NOTES
Hawaii at San Jose State: What Bettors Need To Know

Hawaii Warriors at San Jose State Spartans (+6, 55.5)

Can’t wait until Saturday’s full slate of college football action? The WAC comes to your rescue Friday night, when Hawaii (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) heads to the mainland to face San Jose State (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS).

LINE MOVES

The Warriors opened as touchdown favorites but have been bet down to -6. The total opened at 55 and has climbed half a point.

STATE OF EMERGENCY

With an ankle injury to starting running back Brandon Rutley, San Jose State head coach Mike MacIntyre may have to hand his rushing attack over to freshman Tyler Ervin again Friday night.

Rutley, who is averaging 104 yards on the ground per game, was limited in practice this week after hurting himself against Colorado State two weeks ago. He sat out last weekend’s loss to BYU, in which Ervin and sophomore RB Jason Simpson combined for just 70 yards on 26 carries.

MacIntyre isn’t overly concerned with the production of the running game but rather the pass protection from his running backs. Ervin is only 5-foot-10 and 170 pounds in his first year of FBS action. Against the Cougars, the Spartans allowed only one sack for a loss of nine yards.

"If he goes the wrong way one time, the quarterback gets hit in the back," MacIntyre told the San Jose Mercury News. "He's a very bright young man, and he's picking it up pretty quick."

Despite those kind words, SJSU's head coach has his fingers crossed that Rutley can return to action this week.

HAWAIIAN PUNCH

The Warriors are coming off the bye week following their first road win of the season – and 44-26 beating of Louisiana Tech two weeks ago.

Hawaii used the time off to fine tune its offense, which finally got up to speed in its last two wins. The Warriors have scored 100 points on 1,131 total yards in victories over UC Davis and LTU – most of those coming from the big arm of quarterback Bryant Moniz.

The senior is 10th in the country is passing per game, averaging 315.6 yards an outing. He’s totaled 11 touchdowns and 834 yards through the air in the past two games, and hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 2’s loss to Washington. Moniz also put his name in the record books with seven first-half TD passes versus UC Davis, tying the NCAA record.

Last season, Moniz lit up San Jose State for 560 passing yards and three touchdowns, but was picked off twice. The Warriors thumped the Spartans 41-7 as 30-point favorites.

COACHING CONNECTION

Friday night is homecoming for the San Jose State but also for coach McMackin and Hawaii special teams coach Dick Tomey.

McMackin was the Spartans’ secondary coach from 1979-83 and Tomey served as SJSU head coach from 2005-09, and is credited for the resurgence of the football program.

"There's a lot of players I'm very familiar with, but a lot of those players have really improved a ton," Tomey told reporters. "They're older (and) they're more mature; they were sophomores when I was there and now they're seniors. I think it just suffice to say, I have incredible respect for what they've done the last two years...and I have incredible respect for what they're doing on the field now.”

SPARTAN TOUGH

While Hawaii holds a slight edge, 17-16-1, in the all-time series with San Jose State, the Warriors have owned the Spartans in recent years.

They’ve won nine of the past 10 meetings and four straight in San Jose, but have had to battle for those victories inside Spartan Stadium. The last five meetings at SJSU have been decided by a touchdown or less, including two overtime affairs in the two most recent collisions at Spartans Stadium.

"We've always won over there but they have been just battles," McMackin told the media.

Hawaii has covered in their last two meetings and is 4-2 ATS in the past six. The teams are 5-5 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head games, going back to 2001.

TRENDS

- Warriors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
- Spartans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.
- Over is 6-2 in Warriors last eight games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Spartans last five home games.

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HOT LINES

Friday's Best MLB Bet

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (N/A)

Zack Greinke raised some eyebrows with some interesting comments earlier this week, most notably that St. Louis starter Chris Carpenter was “phony.”

He wasn’t quite as outspoken when he met with the media Thursday, but did give his take on postseason umpiring.

"This is one thing I've been meaning to talk about. I think the home-plate umpires have been amazing so far,” Greinke said. “It's the best zones - better than it is during the regular season. Even the guys I've had, they're not perfect, but in the postseason, the two games I've thrown, I thought, were perfect zones. There have been some mistakes on the field. But calling balls and strikes, I think, is as good as I've ever seen."

Friday’s scheduled umpire is Bill Miller. Unlike a number of umps working games over the last few days, there isn’t much about Miller’s numbers that jump out at baseball handicappers.

But the numbers of Thursday’s starters speak for themselves. Greinke allowed six runs over six innings in his last trip to the hill and St. Louis has dropped each of Jaime Garcia’s last three starts as he’s working on a 7.80 ERA over that span.

"After you make a start where things don't go your way, you get a little anxious," Garcia told reporters about giving up six runs in Game 1 of the NLCS. "But it's part of it. It's part of the game. You've got to have that feeling.”

With these two guys sharing the mound again Friday, we have a pretty good feeling about the over.

PICK: Over

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Hurricanes-Sabres Preview

Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres (-175, 5.5)

After nearly a week off, the Buffalo Sabres have surely had plenty of time to let their tremendous start to the season sink in.

While there's already a palpable level of excitement surrounding the team, Friday night's home opener is sure to create even more hoopla.

The Sabres try to open with three consecutive wins for the first time in three seasons when they meet the Carolina Hurricanes.

After defeating Anaheim 4-1 in Helsinki in last Friday's season opener, Buffalo concluded its European trek with a 4-2 win over Los Angeles in Berlin the next day.

Ryan Miller stopped 60 of 63 shots during the trip, and the line of left wing Thomas Vanek, rookie center Luke Adam and first-year captain Jason Pominville sparked the Sabres offensively.

The trio scored five of Buffalo's eight goals and is just one of the many reasons why Sabres fans have high hopes for this season.

"There's a buzz everywhere. Doesn't matter where," coach Lindy Ruff said. "Anybody you bump into is talking about the team and expectations. I don't know if it's ever been this high before. I think it's probably a little bit out of proportion but it's great to have, it's a great place to be."

Vanek is more than pleased with the team's recent efforts but knows continuing at its current pace won't be easy.

"The season is long, and you're going to have good stretches and bad stretches," said Vanek, who leads Buffalo with five points. "I think I've been around long enough where you welcome it and take it as they come. But it's the same as when you win and lose games, you try to stay even keel."

The Sabres haven't started 3-0-0 since winning their first four in 2008-09, and they now face a Hurricanes team coming off its first win.

Carolina (1-2-1) had surrendered 13 goals - five on the power play - over its first three games before killing all five of Boston's chances with the man advantage during Wednesday's 3-2 win.

"We're talking about the fourth game of the year, but we did treat it like a must-win game," said Cam Ward, who made 26 saves. "It's important that we get a win and feel good about ourselves and know what it's like to win hockey games.

"We can build from a game like (Wednesday). There's a lot of great positives that you can take away from it."

Defenseman Joni Pitkanen gave the Hurricanes a 1-0 lead in the second period before Jiri Tlusty and Anthony Stewart - left wings on Carolina's third and fourth lines - scored in the third.

"Teams are going to key on those two (top) offensive lines that we have," coach Paul Maurice said. "The big goal for me is Stewart's goal ... confidence-wise for that line and for me wanting to put them on the ice in a tight game. They've had some offense there, and if we can get comfortable with four lines that can play, we're going to be able to play in these kinds of games."

Ward is 2-1-0 with a 1.02 goals-against average over his last three visits to Buffalo, posting his second shutout during that span in a 1-0 win March 15.

Miller has gone 6-3-0 with a 1.69 GAA over his nine most recent home meetings with the Hurricanes, allowing two goals or less in all but one of those matchups.

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ICE PICKS

Friday's Best NHL Bets

Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres (-175, 5.5)

It’s back to reality for the Buffalo Sabres.

The Sabres were one of four teams that began the regular season in Europe last week and were the most successful club that made the trek by picking up four points in two games.

However, starting your season across the pond can really throw teams for a loop. Brad Richards of the Rangers admitted as much late last week and many teams have a tough time to get back in the swing of things on home soil.

But Buffalo couldn’t get enough of the European experience.

"Now that we've won two games, we think it's great, fantastic and we'd like to do it every year," Sabres President Ted Black told reporters, a statement that was echoed by a number of different players. "Seriously, it's really been a wonderful experience.”

Even though the Sabres haven’t played in a week, they shouldn’t have any problem keeping the momentum going as long as Ryan Miller does his thing. His save percentage is north of .950 through two starts.

PICK: Under


San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks (+100, 5.5)

The Ducks are another club trying to find its legs after coming back from Europe, but they have a tough test here in their home opener.

While Anaheim did pick up a win in Europe, the club looked sloppy in its own end at times and had a terrible time on the power play. Despite a unit loaded with top-end talent, the Ducks couldn’t score on 11 chances with the man advantage.

"Our power play right now is the one thing that's not clicking the way it should," defenseman Cam Fowler told reporters. "I think it's just getting that chemistry back to where we left off last season. If all five guys aren't on the same page, that's when things can get a little rough out there."

San Jose’s power play already looks like it’s in midseason form, converting three of its six chances in a 6-3 win over Phoenix in the club’s season opener.

PICK: San Jose

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CFL NEWS AND NOTES
CFL Betting Notes - Week 16
By David Schwab


The postseason picture in the CFL is starting to take shape with five teams clinching a spot in the playoffs after this past week’s games. Winnipeg punched its ticket in the East Division with a 33-17 victory over Hamilton this past Friday as a four-point road underdog. On Saturday, British Columbia defeated Calgary 33-31 as a 3½-point home favorite, but both teams clinched a playoff berth in the West Division by virtue of Edmonton’s 17-1 win over Saskatchewan as a 6½-point home favorite. This was the first of two games scheduled on Monday as part of Canada’s Thanksgiving Day Holiday celebration. The Eskimos are also celebrating a playoff berth as well as a result of their lopsided win. Montreal knocked off Toronto 29-19 as a 13½-point home favorite in Monday’s other game to ensure it will have a shot at winning its third straight Grey Cup with a place in the postseason.

Friday, October 14

Calgary Stampeders (-6½) vs. Toronto Argonauts Over/Under (52½)

Despite last week’s loss, Calgary still has a share of the lead in the West with an overall record of 8-6 both straight up and against the spread. It is 5-1 SU and ATS on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last six games. Toronto’s postseason hopes are on life-support at 3-11 SU, but it has been tough ATS at 6-8. It is 2-4 SU and ATS at home and the total has stayed ‘under’ in six of its last seven games.

The Stampeders were stunned on opening day in a 23-21 loss to the Argonauts as eight-point home favorites. The total stayed ‘under’ the 51-point line. Playing on the road has been even tougher for Calgary in this series as it is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to Toronto. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of the last five meetings.

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CANADIEN BACON

Friday's Best CFL Bet

Calgary Stampeders at Toronto Argonauts (+6, 52.5)

The Argos are now officially out of the playoff picture, so from now on it’s every man for himself in Toronto’s dressing room with each player having to prove he belongs on the team.

The acquisition of receiver Maurice Mann from the Tiger-Cats can only benefit QB Steven Jyles, who couldn’t rely on his wideouts since taking over Cleo Lemon’s job. Mann and Jyles know each other well having played with one another in Edmonton, but the Argonauts need a lot before becoming anything close to a respectable team.

Also keep in mind that they will host the Stampeders only four days after losing in Montreal. The Stampeders are going to Toronto needing a win to stay in contention for first place in the west where they are in the thick of a three way-tie. Calgary is 5-2 on the road and should leave Toronto with another road win.

PICK: Calgary

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Friday’s Betting Tips: Ole Miss Suspends Four Players

Weather To Watch

Meteorologists are predicting 11 mph winds blowing out to right field for Friday’s Game 5 in St. Louis between the Brewers and Cardinals.

Who’s Hot

MLB: Milwaukee is 23-6 in Zack Greinke’s last 29 starts overall.

NCAAF: Hawaii is 12-4 against the spread in its last 16 games overall.

NHL: Buffalo is 7-2 in its last nine home games.

NHL: Anaheim has won seven of its last 10 home games.

Who’s Not

MLB: The under is 6-14-1 in Jaime Garcia’s last 21 starts for St. Louis.

NCAAF: San Jose State is 3-9 against the spread in its last 12 home games.

NHL: Carolina is 3-8 in its last 11 trips to Buffalo.

NHL: San Jose has dropped each of its last five road games.

Key Stat

28-5-4 – The Carolina Hurricanes were 28-5-4 last season when scoring the first goal of the game. They have scored first in three of their first four games this season but are 1-1-1 in those contests after beating the reigning Cup champion Boston Bruins on Wednesday. The Hurricanes are +155 underdogs Friday at Buffalo.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Over Looked

Brandon Rutley, San Jose State – The status of San Jose State’s top running back remains in question as Rutley is dealing with an ankle injury. If he can’t go, freshman Tyler Ervin could see more work after picking up 40 yards in his first nine carries of the season last week against BYU.

Game Of The Day

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (N/A)

Notable Quotable

"This recovery from Europe isn't just a one-day or a two-day event when you travel the number of hours we did and the difference in time change. There's some nights now where they're ... having trouble getting to sleep." – Anaheim Ducks coach Randy Carlyle about his team’s preparation ahead of Friday’s home opener against San Jose. The Ducks are set as early +100 underdogs.

Tips And Notes

Mississippi will be shorthanded when it faces the second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend. Ole Miss has suspended four players for breaking team rules earlier this week. Sitting out will be starting running back Brandon Bolden, standout center A.J. Hawkins, special teams star Philander Moore and offensive guard Alex Washington. Mississippi coach Houston Nutt wouldn't elaborate on what the players did to earn the one-game ban. Bolden will be the biggest loss of all, sitting second on the team with 105 rushing yards while scoring a pair of touchdowns. Ole Miss is currently set as a 26.5-point underdog.

College football bettors are all over Hawaii in the Warriors’ Friday night matchup at San Jose State. As of Thursday evening, better than 74 percent of Covers.com Consensus bettors were supporting Hawaii. San Jose State has won just two of its last five games overall, but is 4-1 against the spread during that span.

Indianapolis Colts running back Joseph Addai expects to be miss Sunday's game against the Cincinnati Bengals with a strained hamstring. Addai said he is a "long shot" to suit up after he was injured late in the opening quarter of last week's game against Kansas City. He was unsure when he'd be healthy to return. Backups Delone Carter and Donald Brown are expected to share the carries in Addai's absence. Addai has rushed for 249 yards and a touchdown this season. Indy is set as a 7-point road underdog.

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DCI NHL

Season: 15-8 (.652)

BUFFALO 3, Carolina 2
San Jose vs. ANAHEIM: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

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Today's CFL Picks
Calgary at Toronto

The Argonauts look to take advantage of a Calgary team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games in Toronto. Toronto is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+6 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 14
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (10/12)

Game 291-292: Calgary at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 113.071; Toronto 107.325
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Calgary by 6 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+6 1/2); Over