10-14-11

[timbob]

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[Chico1856]

DR BOB FREE ANALYSIS

Hawaii (-6.0) 31 SAN JOSE ST. 27
Over/Under Total: 55.5
06:00 PM Pacific Time, Friday, 14-Oct-2011
SAN JOSE STATE (+6) 29 Hawaii 30 (if SJ St RB Rutley upgraded to probable)
San Jose State is a much improved team in coach Mike MacIntyre’s second season, but the Spartans still lack depth and injuries are starting to chip away at their ability to compete. Most paramount is the availability of star running back Brandon Rutley, who rushed for 519 yards at 5.7 ypr in the Spartans’ first 5 games before having to sit out last week’s loss to BYU with an injured ankle. San Jose State’s other running backs have combined for just 179 yards at 3.1 ypr and the Spartans managed just 82 yards at 3.4 yards per rushing play last week, so having Rutley available makes a huge difference – especially given that backup David Freeman is also out (the healthy backs have averaged just 2.8 ypr). If the Spartans don’t have Rutley then they’ll probably throw the ball more, which is a good thing given that quarterback Matt Faulkner has averaged 6.6 yards per pass play this season despite facing teams that would combine to allow just 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. I rate the San Jose State offense at 0.5 yppl better than average if Rutley is 100% but the Spartans would be just 0.1 yppl better than average without Rutley (and somewhere in between if he plays at less than 100%). Hawaii is soft against the run but pretty decent against the pass, so Rutley would probably have good numbers if he was healthy enough to play and the Spartans should still move the ball at a decent level through the air if Rutley isn’t available.

The other important injury for San Jose State is that of top CB Brandon Driver, who has was injured early in week 5. The Spartans were pretty good against the pass the first 3 games with both starting cornerbacks playing (other CB Thompson missed week 4), but they’ve allowed 8.5 yards per pass play the last 3 weeks because their backups cornerbacks are terrible. With just one decent corner the Spartans will have trouble defending experienced Hawaii signal caller Bryant Moniz. Moniz is not having as epic a season as he had last year with more talented receivers, but the Warriors’ attack is still 0.5 yppl better than average and has been better than that the last two games. San Jose State is thin in quality defensive backs and that is not good against Hawaii’s multiple receiver sets and I project the Warriors to rack up 495 yards at 7.2 yppl in this game.

My math would favor Hawaii by 6 points if Rutley is 100% and I get the Warriors by 9 points if he doesn’t play at all. However, Hawaii applies to a very negative 75-175-2 ATS situation and a 32-87-4 ATS situation so I like San Jose State in this game regardless. I would certainly consider San Jose State a Strong Opinion based on the strong situation if I knew Rutley was healthy enough to play at his normal level, but it appears as if Rutley will be a game time decision this week and that will keep me from making the Spartans a Strong Opinion. However, the situation is strong enough that I’d lean with San Jose State even if Rutley doesn’t play.

[slim]

Looks like Burns is on the Cards tonight.

[timbob]

Ben Burns

10* cardinals

[timbob]

Brandon Lang

25 Dime San Jose St. +5.5

Free: St. Louis Cardinals ML