10-15-11

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INFO PLAYS

7* Pittsburgh Panthers -6

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ACCUWAGER

Michigan vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan +3
The 11th-ranked Michigan Wolverines (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) remained undefeated by routing Northwestern 42-24 in Week 6 and will look to snap a three-game losing streak against the Michigan State Spartans (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) in Week 7 when the two in-state rivals meet at Spartan Stadium at noon in what has long been one of the most heated rivalries in all of college football. The Spartans are coming off a narrow 10-7 upset win over Ohio State on Saturday in which they managed to cash in as a 3-point road underdog and move to 3-1 ATS in their last quartet of contests. Michigan cashed in for the third straight game by covering the spread as a 7-point road favorite at Northwestern and bring a formidable offense led by athletic quarterback Denard Robinson, into East Lansing. Michigan owns the seventh-ranked rushing attack in the nation, averaging a whopping 257.0 yards on the ground per game. The Wolverines also average a whopping 38.0 points per contest (21st) and just a shade over 200 passing yards per contest (90th). Michigan State's No. 1 overall defense allows just 109.4 passing yards per game (2nd), 64.0 rushing per contest, (third) and just 10.2 points per contest (third). Nevertheless, I genuinely believe the Michigan Wolverines are going to find a way to get the rare road win for their seniors that have never beaten the Spartans. The Road team in this rivalry is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings while Michigan State has gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of three (3.0 points or less. The only time the Wolverines have failed to cover the spread was in their 31-3 Week 3 win over Eastern Michigan – and they only failed to do so by a half-point. I like them to get the job done in a thriller as the nearly unstoppable Denard Robinson leads the new-look Wolverines further into their new era under Brady Hoke by snapping their three-year skid against the Spartans!

Ohio State vs. Illinois
Play: Illinois -4
The Ohio State Buckeyes (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) have lost two straight games, including their 34-27 Week 6 loss to Nebraska. The Buckeyes fell apart in the second half, getting outscored 28-7, though they did manage to cash in for gridiron gamblers as a 10-point road dog. The Illinois Fighting Illini (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) remained unbeaten by spanking Indiana 41-20 the last time out to cash in as a huge, 14-point home favorite and snap a two-game ATS losing streak. Both teams are allowing an identical 17.8 points per game defensively, but Illinois is averaging 34.7 points per contest on offense, which is 10.4 more per game than Ohio State, which is why I'm surprised the Fighting Illini' are only 4-point home favorites. Ohio State is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings against Illinois and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against the Fighting Illini. The Home team is 5-2 ATS in the L/7 meetings and Illinois is just too good for the rebuilding Buckeyes this year, particularly with quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase having an outstanding season through six games. The sophomore has thrown 10 TD passes this season and just three picks. Play the Illinois Fighting Illini' as the easy pick in this one college football bettors.

Oklahoma St vs. Texas
Play: Oklahoma St -7
The explosive sixth-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) are ranked first in the nation in scoring, averaging a whopping 51.4 points per game this season. The Cowboys are also ranked second in passing as senior quarterback Brandon Weeden has thrown a stellar 15 TD passes and just six interceptions through a half-dozen games. Oklahoma State pounded the snot out of Kansas in Week 6 to easily cash in as a huge 31-point home favorite to move to a perfect 4-0 ATS over its L/4 games. The 22nd-ranled Texas Longhorns (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a humbling 55-17 loss against No. 2 Oklahoma on Saturday in which they failed to cover the spread as 11-point home underdogs. The Longhorns fumbled five times while losing three of them in the loss while also throwing two interceptions and allowing a whopping 42 points over the second and third quarters. The quarterback combination of David Ash and Case McCoy combined to complete just 20 of 36 passes with Ash throwing both picks. I don't think it's a stretch to say that the Texas Longhorns could be looking at an even bigger defeat than the one they absorbed last week. Oklahoma is 13-3 ATS in its L/16 games while Texas has gone 6-114 ATS over their L/20. The Longhorns are also just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games while Oklahoma State has compiled an impressive 6-1 ATS mark in their L/7 conference games. With the Favorite going 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this Big 12 rivalry and the Road team going a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, not to mention the fact that Oklahoma State's offense is absurdly explosive this season – this pick is as easy as pie. Play the Oklahoma State Cowboys to roll people!

LSU vs. Tennessee
Play: LSU -16.5
Ho-hum. The LSU Tigers (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U) cruised to another emphatic win by spanking the Florida Gators 41-11 to easily cash in for betting backers as a 14-point home favorite. The Tennessee Volunteers (3-2 SU, 2-1-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U) took a tough 20-12 loss on the chin in their SEC showdown against Georgia the last time out while failing to cash in as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Vols fell to 1-2 SU over its last three games and now gets the big prize of hosting the nation's top ranked team. The good news for Touthouse college football bettors that are looking to cash in is that this pick is like taking candy from a baby – really! While the Vols apparently have a real gem in sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray (14 TDs, 2 Ints) the young Volunteers are clearly not in the same caliber of ballclubs as the Tigers, mostly on the defensive side of the ball. While Tennessee averages just under six points per game fewer than LSU, the Tigers' overpowering defense is giving up just 12.5 points per game defensively, almost eight points per game less than Tennessee. The key to this contest however, is as simple as looking at Tennessee's two SEC losses this season. Basically, I'm saying that if the Vols fell to Georgia by eight points and Florida by 10 points, then losing to the Tigers by two touchdowns sounds like more of a certainty than anything. Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog while LSU has gone 4-1 ATS in their L/5 games against a team with a winning record. The road team in this SEC rivalry has gone 4-0-2 ATS in the L/6 meetings, so keep it simple and play the deeper and more experienced Tigers to get 'er done SU and ATS style in this one.

Boise State vs. Colorado State
Play: Colorado State +32
The fifth-ranked Boise State Broncos (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U) may be one of the top teams in the nation, with their explosive 13th-ranked offense (40.6 ppg) and stellar 10th-ranked defense (14.8 ppg) but I'm going on record to say that the Broncos will narrowly miss out on covering the spread at mediocre Colorado State(3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U) when the two battle on Saturday. The Rams are coming off a heartbreaking 38-31 home loss against San Jose State as a 3.5-point home favorite in Week 6, but I think they've got just enough juice to cover the spread in this contest. Yes, I know the Broncos blew Fresno State out of the water in its 57-7 Week 6 win as a 21-point road favorite, but Colorado State's defense is a bit better than Fresno State's and I believe they'll improve on their stellar 4-0 ATS mark in their last four home games against a team with a winning record and 9-3 ATS mark in their last dozen games as a home underdog. Boise State is 17-4 ATS in their L/21 games as a road favorite, but I'm backing the Colorado State Rams and the huge 32 points they're getting in Mountain West Conference matchup this week.

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Arthur Ralph Sports

733- 5409 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Sat Alabama -25

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Dwayne Bryant

2* Fla
2* Texas

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Brewers Friday night.

Saturday it's Navy. The deficit is 2961 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hawaii showed absolutely no interest in contributing to Hondo's deficit-reduction program, losing last night in San Jose to boost the dirty digits to 2,825 cannons.

Today, Mr. Aitch will take a turn for the exotic with a 20-unit five-team parlay consisting of Penn State, Baylor LSU, Washington and Stanford.

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Today's MLB Picks
Detroit at Texas

The Rangers look to build on their 7-1 record in Derek Holland's last 8 starts as a favorite from -110 to -150. Texas is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 15
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 921-922: Detroit at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 14.715; Texas (Holland) 16.384
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150); Under

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Today's NHL Picks
Ottawa at Washington

The Senators look to bounce back from their 7-1 loss to Colorado and build on their 12-3 record in their last 15 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Ottawa is the pick (+190) according to Dunkel, which has the Senators favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+190). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 15
Time Posted 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Calgary at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.768; Toronto 11.383
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+110); Under

Game 53-54: Colorado at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.923; Montreal 11.674
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-135); Over

Game 55-56: NY Rangers at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.164; NY Islanders 10.773
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-120); Over

Game 57-58: Los Angeles at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.193; Philadelphia 12.293
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-150); Under

Game 59-60: Buffalo at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.363; Pittsburgh 12.551
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-115); Under

Game 61-62: Winnipeg at Phoenix (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 11.325; Phoenix 10.924
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+135); Over

Game 63-64: Ottawa at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.162; Washington 10.968
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+190); Over

Game 65-66: Tampa Bay at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.495; Florida 11.130
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-105); Under

Game 67-68: New Jersey at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.213; Nashville 11.954
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 69-70: Detroit at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.221; Minnesota 10.993
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Under

Game 71-72: Columbus at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.537; Dallas 10.463
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+135); Under

Game 73-74: Boston at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.530; Chicago 11.982
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-130); Over

Game 75-76: Vancouver at Edmonton (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.301; Edmonton 10.793
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-150); Over

Game 77-78: St. Louis at San Jose (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.323; San Jose 11.734
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-165); Under

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LuckyDaySports

Saturday’s Comp Play

NCAAF
Take Ohio -14.5 and OVER 58.5 in Ball St./Ohio game

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LPicks.com
Chairmen play is on Florida St. 5 Units.

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OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a sports betting pick Saturday is on Georgia Tech (-7) to Virginia.

Reasoning: Laying points on the road is never the key to the mint but Virginia isn’t very good and therefore should be up against it today against this fire hot Georgia Tech offense.

Things have slowed down a bit for the Yellow Jackets (relatively speaking) after the ridiculous numbers they put up in the first three games, which included going north of 600 rushing yards against Kansas. With that said though Paul Johnson’s squad has remained extremely focused and proven a ton to me. Tech was supposed to be basically a 6-6 team before the season but right now may be the leading contender to win the ACC and go to a BCS Bowl and I’m not so sure it’s a fluke. Every season we see one team totally shock Vegas. Oklahoma State was last seasons surprise as they were expected to be a .500 squad and the Jackets are on their way at around the midway point to be this years’ Cowboys.

Johnson’s triple option has gone exactly as designed chewing up yards better than any team in the entire nation. Quarterback Tevin Washington has been amazing and flawless most of the time shockingly looking better than a star in Joshua Nesbitt from the last few seasons. Guys like Orwin Smith and Roddy Jones have exploded for huge gainers and it’s just asking a ton for the mediocre at best Cavaliers to be able to hold the rope today.

Virginia is 3-2 but it truly may be the least impressive 3-2 in the entire country. The Cavs just nipped Idaho in Charlottesville 21-20 in a not even close to covering effort after getting upset at home by an average Southern Mississippi team. The other two wins were against Indiana and William & Mary and even if they compete today and stay close for awhile it’s probably asking a bit much to stay within single digits after a full 60 minutes of football.

Tech may fall short one of these games as they probably are not as good as they have been playing but this does not feel like that spot to me.

Top expert pick on this game: GA Tech

Sports pick winners in college football abound for Saturday, October 15. The anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com GodsTips starts out with a big underdog:

IOWA STATE +15.5 Missouri

It’s a perfect sandwich game as Mizzou had a tough loss last week at Kansas State and plays very dangerous Oklahoma State next week. Also Missouri is a big favorite that would actually like to regain confidence in their kicking game for the long run. They may actually be less likely to pile up touchdowns and settle for field goal attempts.

After missing only three of 46 attempts the past two seasons, Ressel is just 7 for 13 this year. This week, coach Gary Pinkel opened competition between Ressel and punter Trey Barrow.

Sophomore QB James Franklin has been erratic since taking over for Blaine Gabbert, last year’s starter now in the NFL. So we love taking underdogs in a game with such box of chocolates. Missouri is also going to run more this week, making the large point spread more ominous.

Scheduling dynamics, the likelihood of a less aggressive game plan and the big number are tough to pass up.

Offensively, the Cyclones have shown they can generate big plays. Running back James White and wide receiver Darius Reynolds make most of them. No matter the score, situation, or how poorly the team’s executed up to that point, the offense always seems to be one play a way this year from breaking off a big touchdown.

Defensively, the Cyclones have come up big time and again when their backs are against the wall. Last week at Baylor they forced two turnovers in the first half when the Bears were driving deep in ISU territory. Also, the Cyclones held Connecticut to just three points off three first half turnovers, all of which came in ISU’s end of the field.

They have the talent, they just have to cut down on turnovers, but again that is correctable. Lack of talent is not, but that is not ISU’s issue.

Now to the wunderkinds of The Canadian Crew:

(11) Michigan @ (23) Michigan State

Saturday, October 15, 12:00 pm. ET

NCAAF betting line: Michigan State -2.5

Michigan State is 4-1 but could conceivably end up .500 three weeks from now, as it gets Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska in consecutive devastating matchups. A win over the visiting Wolverines would be the Spartans’ fourth straight over their bitter rivals and would give them a nice confidence boost entering the Wisconsin game.

This matchup comes down to Denard Robinson versus Michigan State’s stellar defense. Robinson has been a special player, rushing for 720 yards and eight scores while also passing for 1,130 yards and 10 scores. However, Robinson also makes his share of mistakes. Even in a win last week, he threw three interceptions against an atrocious Northwestern defense.

Do we know, then, that Robinson can handle a “D like Michigan State’s? The Spartans have truly been the country’s best, first in total defense, second against the pass, third against the run and third in points allowed. That said, I’m not so impressed with the Spartans’ offense. Kirk Cousins is supposed to be one of the nation’s better quarterbacks but he’s looked ordinary in MSU’s tougher matchups. Michigan’s defense is no slouch, either, and should contain him.

I’d expect a surprisingly low-scoring game and for Robinson to outplay Cousins just enough to keep the Wolverines undefeated.

The pick: Michigan +2.5

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Saturday 10/15

4* Best Bet = Washington
3* = Michigan State
3* = Florida State
2* = Northwestern
2* = Navy

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Free Silver Key Pick for Saturday NCAA Football

PENN STATE -12 over Purdue

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JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Idaho -pk over New Mexico State.

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Jeff Scott Sports

6 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY

TEXAS A&M -9.5 over Baylor: Just my second 6 Unit Play on the year and I hope for better results than the first one. Yes I know how awesome RG3 has been this year, hitting 80% of his passes with a 19-1 TD to INT mark, but I feel he will not have great success today. The Aggies defense has had its problems this year on the road, but at home this year they have allowed just 339 ypg and 17 ppg. That 12th man really pays dividends at home and that defense is a HUGE edge that goes to Aggies. I know the Aggeis are 99th overall amd 107th vs the pass, but Baylor is not just a passing team as they are ranked 10th in the nation in rushing at 239 ypg, and that is one the the Aggies know how to stop as they allow just 77 ypg on the ground and a measly 2.3 ypc. Baylors defense checks in at 61st overall (374 ypg) and 76th in points allowed (28.2), but a closser look and we see that one of their games was a shutout win vs an FCS team, so their rankings vs FBS teams is 79th overall (415.8 ypg) and 103rd in points allowed (35.2 ppg). Now let's go even further. In Baylor's last 3 games they have played the 68th, 107th and 97th ranked offenses and they still allowed 399 ypg and 31 ppg. Today they take on the highest ranked offense they have faced so far. The Aggies offense has been great this year, putting up 493 ypg (12th) and 39 ppg (18th) and I just don't see the Baylor Bears being able to stop it. Two other BIG edges for the Aggies are Special Teams (one of the tops in the country) and their infamous 12th man. The last home game they had was a 1 point loss to OSU, so you know they've been looking foreward to coming home and playing well. RG3 is having a great year, but this day will belong to the Aggies as they win by 14+ here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play AGAINST any team that has covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 games if they have won 80%+ of their games and are playing a team with a win pct of 51% to 60%. This system has gone 27-6 the last 5 years.

5 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY

South Florida -7.5 over CONNECTICUT: The Bulls were rolling right along until they ran into ma fired up Panthers squad last Thursday and were throttled 44-17. Now the Bulls have had 16 days to get ready for this one and they should be fully focused to get back on track. Uconn has not been that good in the early going as they are just 2-4 so far, with the 2 wins coming vs Fordham and Buffalo. Not all that impressive. Uconn won the Big East last year, but they still outgaind by 67 ypg vs SFB and this year is no different as they come in having been outgained 81 ypg vs FBS foes. The Huskie offense has been dismal, ranking 101st overall (331 ypg) and 88th in points scored at 23.3 ppg and even though they are decent on defense, they will not be able to a powerful Bulls offense down enough for their own offense to keep this one close. Two weeks ago this Bulls offense was stymied by Pitt, but they have had extra time to correct the mistakes and get this 10th rated offense back on track. The Bulls average 510 ppg and 39.8 ppg and will be just too much for this UConn defense to handle. The Bulls were embarrassed on National TV two weeks ago and they have been chomping at the bit to get back on the field and show that that was a fluke. I say they make their own statement here with a 17+ point win. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play ON any road team off a 21+ point blowout loss to a conference opponent if they have a winning record and are playing a losing team. This system has gone 29-5 over the last 10 seasons.

4 UNIT PLAY

MISSOURI -15.5 over Iowa State: At the beginning of the year I pegged the Tigers as a team to watch, but they haven't played to their potential yet as they come in at 2-3 on the year. I still feel that this will be a team to watch down the stretch. Despite their 2-3 record the Tigers do have some very good numbers on both sides of the ball, Their offense comes in averaging 479 ypg and 32.2 pgg, while on defense they have allowed just 336 ypg and 21 ppg. Now on the other side we see a Cyclone team that is 3-2, but they do not have good numbers across the board, as their offense has put up 386 ypg (61st) and 25.6 ppg (81st), while their defense is 94th overall, allowing 419 ypg and 98th in points allowed at 33.2 ppg, plus we note that ISU has been outscored by 23 ppg in their 2 Big 12 games thus far. This is a home coming game for the Tigers and they are really looking to put a hurting on a team and today that team is Iowa State. I look for a 21+ point win by a Missouri team that needs to start playing well or they will be left out of the post season party.

3 UNIT PLAYS

MICHIGAN STATE -2 over Michigan: At the beginning of the year I had the Spartans winning their division and playing Wisconsin in the Big 10 Title and I will not deviate from that thought process as the Spartans take on Michigan this week. The Spartans have been dominant on both sides of the ball and they check in with the Nation's top rated defense, allowing just 173 ypg. Sparty is also 2nd vs the pass, allowing just (109.4 ypg) and 3rd in points allowed (10.2 ppg). Granted I know the level of competition they played isn't the greatest, but they did hold the Irish to just 275 yards and look at what that offense has been doing lately. On the other side we have a Michigan defense that has also been playing well. The Wolverines come in ranked 30th in yards allowed (323 ypg) and 9th in points allowed (12.5 ppg), but like the Spartans, they haven't really played anyone yet. The big thing though is that Michigan allowed 513 yards to the Irish, while the Spartans allowed just 275. This Michigan State defense is for real and they should be able to contain Robinson like they did last year. Michigan does have the edge on offense and they have put up 38 ppg, but they also have been the recipient of turnovers and that has led to short fields and easy scores. Yes they beat the Irish, but ND did turn the ball over 5 times and last week vs the Cats a close game was broken open by two 2nd half Northwestern TO's. In this game Michigan won't get the same breaks as the Spartans just don't turn the ball over that much.

Toledo -7.5 over BOWLING GREEN: The Falcons looked good out the gate as they won their first 2 games crushing Idaho and Morgan State, but since then they have dropped 3 of 4 and in their last 2 games they were out scored by 45 and 24 points. The Falcons defense has been shredded for 610 ypg and 50 ppg over their last 2 games and now they face a hot Toledo offense that has put up 428 ypg and 40 ppg over their last 3 games. Overall Toledo is 42nd in total offense (427 ypg) and 26th in scoring (32.8 ppg) and will be facing a Falcon defense that is 78th overall (400 ypg) and 88th in points allowed (29.8 ppg). The Bowling Green offense is decent as they put up 412 ypg and 30.8 ppg, but the Toledo defense is beginning to come around as they have allowed just 29 points in their last 2 games. Toledo is the class of the MAC this year and they a5re starting to play that way, while the Falcons are headed in the other direction. Toledo wins this one easily. KEY TRENDS--- Toledo is 15-4 ATS at home off a win of 28 or more since 1992, while Bowling Green is 0-7 ATS after losing 2 out of their last 3 games the last 2 years.

2 UNIT PLAYS

RUTGERS -4 over Navy: Rutgers is 18-5 ATS since 1992, when the total is between 49.5 to 56, while Navy is 0-6 ATS after allowing 6.25 ypp in their last game. The Knights have had a good year so far and last week they sent a message to the rest of the big East after beating Pitt by 24 as 6.5 home dogs. The Rutgers defense has been stout this year coming in at 18th overall and 11th in points allowed, plus we note that Schiano's defense has held the last 8 Option teams to just 269 total yards per game. Navy is not playing well right now and Rutgers will take advantage with another easy win here.

PITTSBURGH -7 over Utah: The Panthers took an embarrassing loss last week at the hands of the Knights, but I expect them to bounce back here. Pitt is 11-1 ATS following a loss and 5-0-1 ATS their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Utah checks in at 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a loss of 20+ points. Pittsburgh should bounce back strong vs a Utah team this is just not playing well this year.

1 UNIT PLAYS

Oklahoma State/ Texas Over 64.5: OSU is 2nd in total offense and 103rd in total defense. Their games have averaged 79 ppg this year. The Texas offense has had their problems this at times, but they have still averaged 30.8 ppg. I see this game hitting 70 with ease.

Kansas State +3.5 over TEXAS TECH: 5-0 teams in game six that are not laying points have gone a very nice 36-13-1 ATS. The KSU defense has become stout once again and they have held each offense they have faced to their season low. They should come away with their 3rd straight upset here.