Tuesday 7/2/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

---

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#1 Guaco	He got really good here last season, but he'll need to turn the tables on the next guy after fading late in the comeback. Obvious upside in the second start back.
#5 Richiesinthehouse	He's capable of winning right back based on general form, but he doesn't always bring his best stuff right back off a win. Makes sense, but I worry he's overbet and doesn't have to win this.
#8 Erlan	He has some fairly reliable finishing form, and that may be enough to get him past a handful of these late for a piece. Probably a bit of a reach on top.
Race Summary	Guaco can trade decisions with Richiesinthehouse today after staying in the mix until late in that first race back off the layoff. With something more like his baseline here last season, he's right there.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#5 Straightoutadutton	He has been in a bit deep with similar in the past, but he might be the most committed pace in here and could get brave if he doesn't take too much early heat.
#3 Hector	He might be a bit more competitive here while dropping out of that stakes try, and he should be in a really sweet spot while tracking the top choice throughout.
#7 Outhustle	He earned the step back up after the solid comeback score, and he draws well to flash some pressing pace while everything unfolds inside of him.
Race Summary	Straightoutadutton only has one gear, but I'm hoping that sharp pace will allow him to clear off these at some point and run them off their feet while coming back fresh.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#4 Maddon	He can probably be tough with these while getting back in for a tag, as he turned in a couple decent tries at Turfway earlier this year that suggest the move back to synthetic footing might work in his favor.
#6 Be On Notice	He's getting short on excuses, but he has some pretty reliable synthetic form on his page and figures to find a really good spot tracking the pace. One of the ones.
#8 I'm the Cabana Boy	I liked him a bit when facing special weight company last time out, and he may appreciate a more leisurely route tempo while getting a decent bit of class relief.
Race Summary	Maddon has four bad races on his page and two good ones, but the two memorable tries came in his pair of starts over the synthetic surface in Florence, and he could wake up quickly while changing scenery today from Horseshoe Indianapolis.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

---

Fort Erie - Race #3

#5 TWIRLING PIPER (2-1)	Useful debut in 1M race at Woodbine dominated by closers, gets Lasix.
#3 KNOTTY AND NICE (3-1)	Third in recent dirt sprints, second to $40k/nw2 turf victor a year ago.
#2 WAR VOW (9-2)	Disappointed as fave on return to the turf but can’t be discounted.
Race Summary	TWIRLING PIPER, pushed out at the start, chased the leader through the turn and backed up in her debut at one mile. The top three finishers in the race were 5-, 6- and 9-wide. She gets Lasix, shortens up to 7F and breezed a bullet at Woodbine since her debut. Bet to win and place.

Fort Erie - Race #4

#7 HEADING WEST (7-2)	Ultra consistent, working well for return, projects ideal trip.
#6 NICE BABY (6-1)	Popped on the drop off Adamo claim, can repeat on the class rise.
#2 SNELL FLICKA (5-1)	Proven at 5-1/2F, useful return on the lawn, won in second start back last year.
Race Summary	HEADING WEST, first or second in 8 of his last 9 starts with Pinto aboard, is working steadily for her 4-year-old debut and her first start for a claiming tag in more than a year. She draws a good post to stalk and pounce on a likely solid pace. Bet to win and place and play a 6,7/1, 2, 6, 7/ALL trifecta.

Fort Erie - Race #5

#1 JIMMY IS A BREEZE (3-1)	Made it look like a breeze in maiden romp, taken to repeat from rail again.
#5 SPEEDY JOHNY (10-1)	Sheds 12 pounds, will be running late, use underneath in gimmicks.
#7 BELLASPINA (9-2)	Tried stakes company after winning in-hand in Fort Erie debut at age 7.
Race Summary	JIMMY IS A BREEZE, patiently handled behind the dueling leaders, eased off the rail late on the turn to take command, quickly drew away from the field when asked in early stretch and continued strong on the gallop out. She could be sitting on a repeat victory in her third start this year. Bet to win and place and play a 1/5,7/ALL trifecta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 70 • Purse: $43,520 • Post: 3:12P
FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Trailer. SERGEANT CAPPS is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SERGEANT CAPPS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CUPID'S THUNDER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
7	SERGEANT CAPPS	3/1	9/5
1	CUPID'S THUNDER	8/1	6/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	VEHEMENTLY	3	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	47.4	47.4	41.9
2	ROYALIST	2	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	49.3	49.3	45.3
7	SERGEANT CAPPS	7	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	86	67	51.0	51.0	47.5
1	CUPID'S THUNDER	1	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	66	52	44.8	44.8	37.8
4	MISSION IMPROBABLE	4	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	37.0	37.0	28.5

Unknown Running Style: TRULY LEGIT (7/2) [Jockey: Esquivel Emmanuel - Trainer: Davis Christopher], RED SHAHEEN (6/1) [Jockey: Murgia Antioco - Trainer: Matejka Pavel].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 4	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 4-7) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $12,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 2:01P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 2 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * AYEARTOREMEMBER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. WILDCAT GIRL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. RAICHU: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	AYEARTOREMEMBER	5/2	3/1
4	WILDCAT GIRL	6/5	7/2
6	RAICHU	7/2	9/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	AYEARTOREMEMBER	2	5/2	Stalker	71	64	48.6	58.4	54.9
6	RAICHU	6	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	60	54	38.6	48.0	40.0
4	WILDCAT GIRL	4	6/5	Alternator/Trailer	76	75	39.0	64.0	56.5
5	AZTEC BAY	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	50	51.2	44.8	38.8
3	BE LIKE BETH	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	53	49.4	47.6	41.1
1	BOHEMIA BABE	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	41	41.8	27.0	18.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Presque Isle Downs - Race #1 - Post: 3:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#4 SEA URCHIN (ML=5/2)
#6 ELEVATED CAUSEWAY (ML=7/2)


SEA URCHIN - We have lots of early speed with this thoroughbred. He could wire this field. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is meeting an easier group than last out at Presque Isle Downs. ELEVATED CAUSEWAY - Taking a trip down in class ranks; has the ability to make his presence felt. A repeat of that last performance on Jun 12th where he notched a speed rating of 67 looks high enough to prove victorious in this affair.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 LUCIOS ZORAN (ML=4/1), #5 IMPOSING RULER (ML=5/1), #1 MAGNUS EFFECT (ML=6/1),

LUCIOS ZORAN - Notched a mediocre speed figure last time around the track in a $7,500 Maiden Claiming race on June 18th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig. IMPOSING RULER - Finished eighth last time out of the box. Would have to improve to be there at the wire in today's event. When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, he will have to record a much better speed figure than last out to battle in this dirt route. MAGNUS EFFECT - Had to show me more than that last time around the track. Never made much of an impact.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ELEVATED CAUSEWAY - I always scan for the horse that is at the top in earnings per start. If he meets my criteria I make a play.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #4 SEA URCHIN on top if we're getting at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $18500 Class Rating: 96

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 EXACTING 9/5
# 7 GALLANT OAK 3/1
# 1 SLEW'S BAK 4/1

I've got to go with EXACTING. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Badrie should have this gelding in excellent position to win the race. With Badrie aboard him, this gelding will almost certainly be able to break out early for this event. Could beat this group of animals given the 112 Equibase speed fig garnered in his last outing. GALLANT OAK - This equine has to be in good form coming back to the track so quickly. The speed figure of 89 from his last race looks strong in here. SLEW'S BAK - Appears to have a competitive class edge based on the most recent company kept. Has to be given a shot against this group displaying very good figures lately and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 79 under similar conditions.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Louisiana Downs - Race #4 - Post: 5:20pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#4 BRONTE DIEM (ML=4/1)


BRONTE DIEM - The Jun 19th contest at Louisiana Downs was at a class level of (69). Dropping down the class ladder considerably, so he should be in a good spot to win. Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. When I handicap a race on the grass, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This mount has the highest average class in the entire group. This colt notched a strong figure of 56 in his last event. That fig should be high enough to triumph this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 HEXCEL (ML=5/2), #6 ZONG'S FAVOR (ML=7/2), #8 SWEET PRESENT (ML=6/1),

HEXCEL - That was simply not a very good display in the last event. ZONG'S FAVOR - This gelding showed very liitle last out. SWEET PRESENT - Just can't invest in any entrant right back after he doesn't hit the board after any very long layoff. This less than sharp equine hasn't been close at the finish line of late. When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, he will have to notch a much better speed figure than last out to battle in this turf sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 BRONTE DIEM to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 2 - SO - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 91

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $8,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 2 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 SMOKIN' HOT 6/1
# 1 JOKEMEISTER 7/2
# 2 SAHM TEQUILA 10/1

I have to consider SMOKIN' HOT here. A solid 90 avg Equibase class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this field. I like the jockey on this gelding - strong chance to win the contest. Investors should probably take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group. SAHM TEQUILA - Gamblers should probably feel comfortable with this choice given Haldar's recent profits at the window. Decent selection to take this race going in a dirt sprint.