Thursday 7/4/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#1 Cheerful Trout	Her form has turned around since getting over the local footing, and she'll probably be in a really good spot early on from the inside. Not overmatched here.
#7 Bess' Candy	She was pretty one-paced in the debut try, but that might set her up for something better while getting around two turns with that race under her belt. Could see better today.
#6 She's Got Rhythm	I really liked her three-back run, but she hasn't really moved forward a whole lot from that since coming back this season. Maybe the move around two turns wakes her up enough with this modest group.
Race Summary	Cheerful Trout has some tactical pace and a clear affinity for the surface here, and I could see her stepping into this special weight spot and handling an iffy group.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 Unraptured	He might offer a decent enough price while getting back on synthetic footing, and those isolated running lines are all pretty solid compared to this bunch. Spying trip while shortening up?
#2 Diamond Dust	Forward player is one of the ones here, but I worry the price is going to get short while he meets a couple other potentially solid pace players. Threat to score again.
#4 Spirited Sol	He held his form fine last out when Diamond Dust turned the tables on him, and a similar kind of baseline effort today should be competitive yet again.
Race Summary	Unraptured might get a decent tracking trip from the outside, and I'm hoping Aqueduct invader #5 Legends Can't Die will be keen off the bench and keep Diamond Dust from an easy go of things.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#11 Elm Street	Think he'll be a good fit with the locals at this level, and he has some proven finishing form in his past in a race that is otherwise lacking it. Interesting.
#8 Brian	Cutback player drops hard off a pace-and-fade turf route, and he should appreciate the sharper trip again today with the two best races on his page having come in his shortest tries. Capable underlay with mixed messages.
#7 Make the Bed	Could see that even run from last out translating into a share of this in a race where several of them are only going to be chasing elements. On the tickets.
Race Summary	Elm Street was able to get past a few horses on the synthetic surface at Turfway earlier this year, and that kind of run might be enough in a soft spot with a handful of pace and chasing types.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#3 FIA FIRST (4-1)	Good works, good company lines, good fit for new barn as today’s Best Bet.
#2 HER LUCKY LOTTO (6-1)	Marked improvement with Lasix in six-horse race won by the odds-on fave.
#5 CHOCOLATTI (2-1)	Troubled third in slooow 5F sprint after two years on sidelines.
Race Summary	FIA FIRST makes her first start for Klesaris off a six-month layoff. But she drops in class, shows a busy and solid work tab at Delaware Park and was overhauled by first-time starter Kavala (4-13, $74k) -- who won a $7500 open claimer last month at Woodbine – when last seen. Bet to win and place and play 3-2 and 3-5 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#5 SKULL LEGEND (4-1)	No fire in four-horse debut sprint, could awaken with change of scenery.
#4 LA CREMA (5-2)	Four in-the-money finishes stand out in field that is combined 0-32 on turf.
#6 SIPPIN TIME (12-1)	Beaten fave two months ago stretches out, changes surfaces off series of 5F works.
Race Summary	The field is a combined 32/0-3-2 on the turf. Morning-line favorite LA CREMA has accounted for two seconds and two thirds, mostly at higher levels than today’s 1-1/16-mile race. But take an all-or-nothing type shot on SKULL LEGEND, who trailed in a well-bet debut sprint against three rivals. She’s bred to go longer, she gets second-time Lasix and her high-percentage trainer is 20-percent on the sprint-to-route angle. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#2 ASPIRING COMEDIAN (8-1)	Had no breathers, found more late to win, too good to pass up at 8-1.
#1 LOOK SHARP (9-5)	Drops below claim level, strictly the one to beat as a deserving favorite.
#3 TAPORICAL (10-1)	Late rush for second, claimed again, sheds 7 pounds, use in gimmicks.
Race Summary	ASPIRING COMEDIAN hesitated at the break, rushed up into a solid pace and survived a race-long duel to inch away late for his new barn. He faces a tough customer in LOOK SHARP but could repeat at a tempting price. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-3 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 6	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 6-7) ($1 min.) /Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Maiden Claiming $25,000 • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 66 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 8:25P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ROGUES FAST PRIZE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GAME COWGIRL: Horse has a TrackM aster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MEAN TWEET: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. QUEEN OF POWER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	ROGUES FAST PRIZE	5/1	6/1
4	GAME COWGIRL	6/1	6/1
2	MEAN TWEET	7/2	6/1
6	QUEEN OF POWER	8/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ROGUES FAST PRIZE	1	5/1	Slow	70	58	7.0	0.0	0.0
2	MEAN TWEET	2	7/2	Fast	65	56	2.0	0.0	0.0
3	YOU BUX	3	20/1	Slow	52	37	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	GAME COWGIRL	4	6/1	Average	68	58	4.8	0.0	0.0
5	JB EL SANTO PERRY	5	10/1	Slow	0	0	9.0	0.0	0.0
6	QUEEN OF POWER	6	8/1	Average	67	55	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	EYE B JAMMIN	7	5/2	Slow/Trouble-prone	59	51	7.9	0.0	0.0
8	BAR THE SAINT	8	20/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	RL KANGURO	9	6/1	Average	59	48	5.1	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine
PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race 3	Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)/ 0.20 Jackpot Power PK6 (Races 3-4-5-6-7-8)/$1 Swinger
SO $10,000 • 7 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $36,300 • Post: 5:53P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 4 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $9,500, ALLOWED 1 LB. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * MAKE NO MISTAKE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. EMERALD LAKE: To day is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ONANDONANDON: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TEXT ME UP: Horse ranks in the top three in av erage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	MAKE NO MISTAKE	9/5	7/2
1	EMERALD LAKE	3/1	6/1
4	ONANDONANDON	6/1	7/1
3	TEXT ME UP	5/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	ONANDONANDON	4	6/1	Stalker	73	69	60.4	63.8	56.3
2	MAKE NO MISTAKE	2	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	82	81	60.1	67.3	63.8
3	TEXT ME UP	3	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	79	62	55.7	59.6	52.1
1	EMERALD LAKE	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	67	49.7	70.4	64.9
6	BUTTERED TOAST	6	8/1	Trailer	88	81	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	ENGLISH BISCUIT	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	96	83	45.2	57.2	46.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 62

FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 BESS' CANDY 5/2
# 4 UPTOWN CAT 9/2
# 1 CHEERFUL TROUT 8/1

BESS' CANDY looks quite good to best this field. Very good shot today with second time Lasix. This filly with Gallardo in the saddle makes her a definite contender. The average class figure alone makes this entrant a key contender. UPTOWN CAT - Morales has a win percent of 17 over the last month. CHEERFUL TROUT - Has been running solidly lately and will almost certainly be on or close to the lead early on. Valdez is very serious with this one, wheeling her right back.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Penn National - Race #7 - Post: 8:39pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 58

Rating:

#1 BOOTSY'S MERLOT (ML=3/1)
#4 GORMLEY GIRL (ML=5/2)


BOOTSY'S MERLOT - Taking a big drop in Equibase class figure points from her June 19th race at Penn National. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this animal the edge. Earnings per start is something that I believe can be a very important handicapping aspect. This racer is ranked numero uno in this field. GORMLEY GIRL - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier field than last race out at Parx Racing. Martinez and Martinez perform well when they join forces. Hard to top a winning percent of 33.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BIG SIS NIC (ML=8/5), #2 HIGHWAY QUEEN (ML=9/2),

BIG SIS NIC - Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any kind of closing ability on Jun 18th. HIGHWAY QUEEN - This horse doesn't win here at Penn National. She needs a different racing surface to show her best. This horse ran a substandard speed fig in the last race. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat in today's race running that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #1 BOOTSY'S MERLOT to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $40000 Class Rating: 65

FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 UP UP AND AWAY 5/2
# 10 EXPECT GLORY 7/2
# 5 BAYOU BOY 10/1

UP UP AND AWAY looks competitive to best this field. Overall the speed figures of this horse look solid in this competition. Might see a different animal here with the blinkers change. Ran a strong last race. EXPECT GLORY - Sanchez and Bravo are a potent pair for profits. Will probably be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the halfway point of the contest. BAYOU BOY - Has to be considered a contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Thistledown - Race #8 - Post: 4:20pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $38,400 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#1 LEROYISALAGNIAPPE (ML=9/2)
#7 CAVALETTO (ML=8/1)
#8 COLOR BEARER (ML=5/1)
#4 HARTSTEIN (ML=6/1)


LEROYISALAGNIAPPE - I like to invest in this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid contest within the last thirty days. Traditional handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. Going to run a good one. CAVALETTO - Gorham has this gelding entered in the right event. COLOR BEARER - Batista and Skerrett perform well when they work together. It's hard to beat a +79 ROI for a jock and conditioner. Skerrett brings him back again. I suggest you stick with this hot gelding. This gelding should be at the fitness peak, this far into his form cycle. HARTSTEIN - This gelding is in good form. Finished third on Jun 5th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ROLL A QUARTERS (ML=5/2), #3 KELLEHER (ML=7/2), #5 WOLFINE (ML=8/1),

ROLL A QUARTERS - You should normally wager against morning-line choices that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last three weeks. KELLEHER - Should have at least finished in the money in the last two months in a sprint contest to be worth the chance at low odds in a sprint. This pony ran a quite unimpressive speed figure in the last race. He shouldn't run better and will probably get beat in today's race running that number. WOLFINE - I cannot play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the assignment done infrequently. Extended vacation, then came back and finished sixth. Hard to expect much better this time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 LEROYISALAGNIAPPE is going to be the play if we are getting 5/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip