Friday 7/5/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2024, 08:55 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 5, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 7, and the sequence will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (9:00 PM EST)

1-Chillin Bythe Pool (8-1)-Willing to toss the last race versus $50k claimers, gets needed class relief and should get away in good shape off the gate. Brent Holland gets the nod and he is posting 22% winners with the Tom Fanning barn. Does well racing at the top of the stack and that trip works here.
2-Jenden Strike A (9/2)-Can show gate speed at times and should be in the mix with this crew. Team Cushing entry has hit the board in 2 of 4 races at Yonkers but hasn't taken a picture. Could get the job done tonight with a sharp steer.
4-Fade Out (8/5)-Recent form has been dull but dropped and raced better in last at Philly. Has won 8 of 26 here and if dialed on high should have his way with this field. But the price will be small and can't fully trust.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

1-No Turning Back (9/5)-Only raced once in May, on 5-30, and hasn't done much since returning. Showed a bit of life last time and drops to the lowest level in a long time. Jason Bartlett takes the lines and has been off since 6-21. Willing to use and expecting the price to be better than the morning line.
5-Anjeliki (2-1)-Joins the Travis Alexander barn and makes its Yonkers debut. Recent form has been dull but did race better in the last start at the Mea on 6-21. Joe B gets the call and this will be a class test. Will respect the connections in race without much form and too many question marks.
7-Street Gossip (6-1)-This is the level where the 6-year-old could be heard from. Drops to the same class as its last win on May 3, which was at Yonkers. The post helps the price, raced better in the last start, and could surprise if Austin Siegelman works a close-up stalking trip.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

4-Immanuel K S (9/5)-Keeps dropping looking for its 1st picture (10-0-4-2) and in the last race was bet down to 3/2 despite being off 3 weeks. Will respect connections (Bartlett-Engblom) but will be a short price most likely, and is only 1-14 at YR.
6-For A Dreamer (5-1)-Drops after almost wiring the field on 6-21. The Laterza barn has been cold but improved last time and this is a winnable race. Not sure the 5-1 morning line holds up, could land on the point and not look back.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

2-Bri Express N (9/2)-Bri gets class and post relief in her 4th start since shipping in from Philly. George Brennan sticks and my take is he will be on the point or in the pocket. Either trip could work when facing this bunch.
4-Sweetest Belle (8/5)-Broke stride and was put away in the beginning of May until the last start on 6-28. Faced easier in last, went off at 4/5 and finished 2nd. Will probably be a short price again but has hit the board in 5 of 12 at Yonkers with 2 wins. Could win if improves in the 2nd start off the bench. Using but a small price is tough to take.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,2,4/1,5,7/4,6/2,4
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2024, 08:59 AM

Prairie Meadows Pick 4 Friday, July 5

July 5, 2024 | By Frank Carulli

PRAIRIE MEADOWS PICK 4
Friday, July 5, 2024

Prairie Meadows will host its annual Festival of Racing this weekend, awarding more than $1 million in purses. The fireworks will begin Friday, July 5, with four $100,000 stakes on the 10-race card. Here’s a look at the All-Stakes Pick 4 that costs only 50 cents to play:
PrM 6th race (9:10 p.m. EST) -- NECKER ISLAND, the lone millionaire in the $100,000 Iowa Sprint Stakes, trailed most of the way in the $200,000 St. Matthews Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs to begin his 7-year-old season. But he’s worth a second look after facing the likes of multiple Grade 2 winner Hoist the Flag ($1.4 million), multiple Grade 3-winning speedball Skelly (10-16, $1.6 million) and Tejano Twist (9-34, $1.4 million) last year. BOURBON HEIST is 6/2-1-2 sprinting at various venues in the last nine months. The races that he didn’t win produced two next-out stakes winners and three allowance/optional claiming winners who all posted 94-plus Beyer speed figures. PEACE DOG emerged from a backstretch duel while 4-wide and drew away impressively from a nondescript field of allowance runners for his new trainer. He gets the class test tonight, but at least the price will be right to use him in the leadoff leg.
PrM 7th race (9:39 p.m. EST) -- OLGA ISABEL ran unchallenged on the lead en route to her first stakes victory in the $50,000 Prairie Rose. She faces more pressure in tonight’s $100,000 Saylorville but should overcome it as a solo play in the Pick 4. She set faster fractions than the $50,000 Ed Skinner Stakes for the boys on the same night and finished only 1/5 of a second slower in her seasonal debut.
PrM 8th race (10:08 p.m. EST) -- Eight entrants in the $100,000 Prairie Golden Lassie arrive off debut Maiden Special Weight victories, spanning five tracks. ELEGANT JUSTICE caught the eye with a stretch burst on the lead, albeit against three state-bred rivals at Horseshoe Indianapolis. SHEZAFUNKYDRUMMER lived up to the 2-to-5 hype in field of all first-time starters at Hawthorne, sprinting clear and never asked for run in a 4-1/2F romp. Interesting to note, winning jockey David Cohen will be aboard her stablemate, RICH CITY GIRL, who debuts with a flashy work tab for trainer Larry Rivelli. SPANKERBOOM seized the moment when the even-money favorite was in ‘cramped quarters’ on the turn and emerged from a 6-way battle for the lead that she held safe in the final sixteenth.
PrM 9th race (10:37 p.m. EST) -- Proven and improving route runners abound in the $100,000 Iowa Distaff at 1-1/16 miles, prompting an ‘ALL’ punch in the Pick 4. MAGICAL LUTE won an allowance at Churchill Downs two starts ago and sustained a 3-wide rally to finish third behind graded stakes-placed Opus Forty Two in the $50,000 Wayward Lass at Tampa Bay Downs to start the year. PIGALLE shook a duel with the second favorite and won off a six-month layoff in a six-figure allowance at Churchill Downs. LACIE BE GOOD’s five-race winning streak ended in a $100,000 stakes on Preakness weekend at Pimlico. TAKE ME SERIOUS is a two-time stakes winner against Oklahoma breds at Will Rodgers Downs. FLAT OUT STORMIN rallied to win the Hawkeyes Handicap at Prairie Meadows last fall.

Suggested 50-Cent Ticket
PrM 6th Race: 2, 5, 6
PrM 7th Race: 6
PrM 8th Race: 1, 2, 3, 9
PrM 9th Race: ALL
Cost for 50-cent ticket: $42

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2024, 09:01 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #6

#8 Lady Aberdeen	A bit worried about how she has given away ground late in her starts, but she might offer a midrange price today while getting into a friendlier spot. Think she can grind past today.
#9 Dark Fury	She's tough here if she's able to get back to something like the debut try when she raced for this same tag, and a better break today would probably also go a long way to helping her take advantage of the good attack draw.
#1 Starcourt	She might work out an OK trip from the fence while tucked in just behind the quicker players early, and she didn't miss by much at this level a couple starts back. One of the ones.
Race Summary	Lady Aberdeen has been in the picture with a couple cheaper groups, but she doesn't appear totally overmatched here after doing the dirty chasing work last time out.

Ellis Park - Race #8

#11 Peignoir	Straight company line play for a capable team, as this one was last seen running nine lengths behind Thorpedo Anna in the fall, and she has turned into one of the best 3-year-olds of either sex. Can roll if she's ready.
#10 Sabrina	She's probably in the mix today if she's able to get past the dud last time out, but the two-back run might keep her in the frame at an OK price.
#8 Lotsandlotsofcandy	She took that big step forward last out after never really mixing things up in her debut run, but I worry there are a couple horses who might force the issue and make things tougher for her this time around.
Race Summary	Peignoir may come back better as a 3-year-old, and there's nothing in here even remotely close to what she saw in that last try in November. Worried the price might get a little too short, but I think she's the one.

Ellis Park - Race #9

#12 Provisional	He didn't run to the huge pedigree in the debut try last summer, but he has every right to be better this time around. Wondering if he'll be able to relax a little bit more and maybe prompt or spy the rail pace?
#8 San Martin	Spent a lot of time thinking about having this one on top -- I like the way he is progressing and think he may still offer an OK price after outrunning his 111/1 price last out. Main problem is that I think he's going to be trying to find a spot similar to a lot of the others here. Would be playable on either surface for me.
#6 Oscarworthy	The Florida form is competitive on paper, but he hasn't been a super serious threat in either of those races, and I worry the price is going to be a bit shorter than it should be.
Race Summary	#1 Rocky Joy sits at 8/5 on the morning line, and his better stuff would probably do the trick, but he has given away ground late in every race and is meeting some outside pace that could keep him honest and make him vulnerable late again.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2024, 09:02 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Prairie Meadows - Race #3

#4 KASA (2-1)	Should sit ideal trip, lures Santana, waited for running lane in latest allowance sprint.
#1 HANK’S GIRL (5-1)	Shook duel, repelled challenge on turn, upstaged string of in-money placings.
#6 HOP AWAY HOTTIE (6-1)	Earned top speed figure in win over same rival that beat Kasa.
Race Summary	KASA, first or second in 7 of 18 starts at Prairie Meadows, took inside aim at the winner while she ‘awaited room for a clear path’ and finished second. She gets Santana to ride, an extra half-furlong of ground to cover and a projected ideal pace set-up. Bet to win and place and play 4-1 and 4-6 exactas.

Prairie Meadows - Race #5

#3 DO YOU BILEVE (10-1)	Hard used against next-out repeater in four-horse field, live price play.
#6 MY GOOD FORTUNE (2-1)	Oaklawn invader has solid numbers, exits allowance ranks.
#7 SET THE PACE (4-1)	Controlled pace, turned back follow-up winner despite drifting in lane.
Race Summary	DO YOU BILEVE survived a long duel with the favorite but settled for another runner-up finish in the same spot. She gets upgraded after race winner War Music came back with a 5-1/2 length allowance win and a 77 Beyer speed figure. Bet to win and place.

Prairie Meadows - Race #11

#8 MILTON STREET (8-1)	Right set-up, right price for new connections in third start this year.
#4 SAY IT NICELY (5-2)	Fought back in final sixteenth after winner passed by in same spot.
#2 SNAP N TAP (4-1)	‘Sustained a steady bid’ to finish third off an eight-month layoff.
Race Summary	MILTON STREET chased the runaway favorite around the track for half this claiming price, but he enters a strong claim barn, should work out a good stalking trip and offers plenty of value in his third start as a 5-year-old. Play an 8-ALL exacta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2024, 09:02 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National
PURCHASE

Penn National - Race 3	W-P-S/ Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / Hollywood Hi 5
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 1:58P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 5. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SIR SAHIB: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CHAIN REACTION: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ET'S MAGIC MAN: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. WAHOOWA WAHOOWA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	SIR SAHIB	6/1	5/1
5	CHAIN REACTION	8/1	5/1
7	ET'S MAGIC MAN	8/1	8/1
1	WAHOOWA WAHOOWA	8/1	8/1
10	WICKED MAD	8/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	BERMONDSEY	9	8/1	Front-runner	79	72	81.8	58.8	42.3
1	WAHOOWA WAHOOWA	1	8/1	Front-runner	80	75	59.2	66.8	57.8
10	WICKED MAD	10	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	74	66.6	67.4	50.4
11	COBBLE ROAD	11	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	64.4	67.2	55.7
5	CHAIN REACTION	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	73	63.0	69.6	60.1
6	SIR SAHIB	6	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	66	62.2	67.4	60.4
2	CASH KID	2	6/1	Trailer	81	74	39.8	60.2	42.2
3	SHANGHAI CANDY	3	8/1	Trailer	75	60	37.8	61.4	46.9
4	TRIBAL NOTION	4	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	84	66	56.4	71.6	66.6
7	ET'S MAGIC MAN	7	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	83	78	44.2	64.8	58.3
8	FORECLOSURE	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	63	51.6	51.2	38.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2024, 09:02 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Monmouth Park
PURCHASE

Monmouth Park - Race 1	Win, Place and Show Exacta, 50-Cent Trifecta and 10-Cent Superfecta Daily Double (Races 1-2)/50-Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) 50-Cent Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Optional Claiming $15,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $68,750 • Post: 2:00P
FOR REGISTERED NEW JERSEY BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 5 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES)(HORSES WHO HAVE WON THIS CONDITION FOR THE CLAIMING PRICES AT THE 2024 MONMOUTH PARK MEET ARE INELIGIBLE).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * VIOLETS SMILE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CAPTURED DARLING: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BELLA F AST: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. GRAVITY HILL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	VIOLETS SMILE	3/1	9/2
4	CAPTURED DARLING	5/2	5/1
6	BELLA FAST	10/1	8/1
5	GRAVITY HILL	3/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	BELLA FAST	6	10/1	Front-runner	57	76	70.1	45.7	37.7
7	VIOLETS SMILE	7	3/1	Front-runner	77	69	68.6	62.4	56.9
4	CAPTURED DARLING	4	5/2	Stalker	58	66	63.5	62.6	58.1
3	DANTASTIC	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	73	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	GRAVITY HILL	5	3/1	Trailer	69	62	28.4	58.8	54.3
2	KATE'S CUBAN KISS	2	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	76	62	61.6	57.2	49.2
1	CHARLIZE CHUB	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	54	44	55.8	39.0	28.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2024, 09:03 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $48000 Class Rating: 85

FOR STATE BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 MAIDEN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 AMERICAN OF COURSE 9/5
# 9 JULEE'S LEGACY 9/2
# 4 PRETTY'N AWESOME 10/1

AMERICAN OF COURSE looks decent to best this field. Shows formidable speed figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group. Ran a strong last race. I can't pass on this mare given one of the top rider and handler combos on the grounds. JULEE'S LEGACY - Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the recipe to a turnaround. PRETTY'N AWESOME - The speed rating of 87 from her most recent affair looks strong in here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2024, 09:03 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race #2 - Post: 1:36pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $38,000 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#8 WELCOME BACK BABE (ML=3/1)
#6 SHEHANAH (ML=7/2)
#7 DANCING LIANA (ML=5/1)

WELCOME BACK BABE - Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier field than last race out at Belmont at the Big A. This filly should be at the peak of fitness, this far into her form cycle. SHEHANAH - My handicapping know-how tells me to be on the alert for this horse in this affair DANCING LIANA - You always have to be on the prowl for profit making rider/handler teams; we have one right here. This horse wins a lot of money per start. I believe she can increase the lifetime bankroll in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 ANNIEWORKSTOOMUCH (ML=7/2), #1 NOBLE DISGUISE (ML=5/1), #4 TERESA (ML=8/1),

ANNIEWORKSTOOMUCH - 7/2 is not enough of a price to take on this horse. NOBLE DISGUISE - No good fortune for this entrant in a sprint event over the last couple months tells me that this filly is in a formidable spot TERESA - The Brain always cautions me to keep away from horses in short distance contests that haven't finished in the money in sprint affairs of late. Finished fourth in her most recent race with a quite unimpressive speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #8 WELCOME BACK BABE to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	8 with [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7,8] Total Cost: $6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2024, 09:03 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick Four

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 9.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $102000 Class Rating: 102

BAQ-R7 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $62,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 PERFORM 3/1
# 4 POWER SEEKER 4/1
# 1 ARCHIE THE GIZA 5/1

PERFORM looks to be a solid contender. Davis will most likely be able to get this colt to break out early in this race. Could beat this group given the 98 speed fig recorded in his last outing. POWER SEEKER - Lezcano ought to be able to get this horse to break out early in this race. Ranked high in earnings per start at the distance/surface in this lot. ARCHIE THE GIZA - This gelding has some longshot handicapping angles I like to take a chance on.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2024, 09:04 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #5 - Post: 2:33pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $49,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating:

#4 DOWNTOWN KATIE (ML=8/1)
#2 NICOLAR (ML=5/1)

DOWNTOWN KATIE - Trainer Gorham moves this thoroughbred to a lower class rank to face a lower class field. Look for a nice performance racing against these lower level horses. I'm focusing on the class of this horse, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. NICOLAR - This mare is very familiar with the winner's circle at Laurel. I expect a repeat performance right here in this race. Mare won shipping here on Jun 15th and looks good right back. This animal may have too much power on the grass for the rest of the field. Moving down the stretch, she could put these away.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 GINGER GIRL (ML=7/5), #6 ROWSIE EXPRESS (ML=8/5), #9 HIT THE ROAD BRAT (ML=2/1),

GINGER GIRL - Doesn't appear to be in a cozy spot in today's event. ROWSIE EXPRESS - Don't think this horse will do much running in today's race. That last speed fig was mediocre when compared with today's class figure. HIT THE ROAD BRAT - The speed rating last out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a questionable challenger.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 DOWNTOWN KATIE is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[2,4] with [2,4] with [3,5,7,8,9] Total Cost: $10
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,4] with [2,4] with [3,7,9] with [3,5,7,8,9] Total Cost: $24