Sunday 7/7/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2024, 08:01 AM

Race of the Week: Sunday's Delaware Handicap

July 3, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Back-to-back Race of the Week scores at $870 and $518 made for a highly successful June in this space. We'll see if July can stay hot when one of my favorite races of the calendar year is renewed Sunday. The tradition-rich Delaware Handicap is the final of 4 straight stakes on Delaware Park's card and goes as Race 9. The race was shortened in distance to 1-3/16 miles a year ago and will be conducted at that trip again in 2024. The DelCap's storied history includes modern star winners like Idiomatic, Songbird, Royal Delta and Blind Luck.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner WET PAINT is the field's handicap highweight at 123 pounds. HONOR D LADY is a multiple Grade 3 winner. MORNING MATCHA is Group 2-placed via this race a year ago. No doubt, WET PAINT holds the class edge in terms of strength of schedule.

Pace:
Stretch-out sprinter MALIBU BEAUTY leaves from the rail and almost certainly sets the tempo. SADDLE UP JESSIE figures to apply the most pressure with HONOR D LADY having to make a decision between them. The pace should be solid for the 1-3/16 miles trip.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-MALIBU BEAUTY: Speedster takes them as far as she can and benefits the longer they go without feeling strong pressure. Only 1 win in her last 9 since stretching out to 1-1/8 miles and winning a slow-paced Laurel stakes to close 2022. Needs that kind of trip ... and even an additional 110 yards.

#2-HONOR D LADY: Jockey Jose Ortiz is a 3-time winner of the DelCap and can match the race record of victories held by legendary pilot Angel Cordero Jr. if successful. Last year's Remington Park Oaks winner has transferred her form to age 4 this year by winning the Royal Delta at Gulfstream. Stuck between the 2 apparent speeds in this race, so a patient ride could land a great spot, but there's a chance she gets sucked up into the mix.

#3-SADDLE UP JESSIE: No excuse not to hold off HONOR D LADY last time at Monmouth when that one had a troubled start, so it's difficult to imagine her turning the tables over a longer trip Sunday. Stakes winner at Laurel and Aqueduct capable of having a big say in how the pace of this race unfolds, however. Prefer others to keep punching late.

#4-QUEEN OF MISSOULA: Deep closer has had a tendency to break in at the start, so beware inside of her. Her best races of late came on the Tapeta at Turfway, but those were 1-1/4 miles races and you know the distance won't dissuade her. Not without some chance, but demand a very square price.

#5-MORNING MATCHA: Third-place finisher in the '24 Delaware Handicap, she's also hit the board locally in the Delaware Oaks and Obeah Stakes ... obviously showing an affinity for a sometimes-tricky course for newcomers. Takes the 2 sprints and a route form cycle for respected trainer Butch Reid. May trip out behind the pacemakers and with first run on the closers.

#6-WET PAINT: Trainer Brad Cox won this race last year with eventual champion Idiomatic and can become the first barn to win back-to-back renewals with different horses since Todd Pletcher in 2006-'07. Idiomatic is being pointed instead to the Molly Pitcher at Monmouth. Her 2 races this year, albeit vs. much tougher, haven't been world-beaters and you'll likely have to take an underlay price with Flavien Prat in to ride. First try at Delaware Park, but note sire Blame gets a fantastic 24% winners over this main track from more than 75 chances.

#7-INTREPID DREAM: Laurel-based runner returns to the scene of some past success. Must rebound off a poor effort in the DuPont Distaff at Pimlico when far behind re-matched rival Queen of Missoula. Likely to chase the chase, however, and that's a difficult trip the way this could play out over 1-3/16 miles. Better than last, but not sure this is the right situation.

#8-ABUNDANCIA: Peruvian export has a Gulfstream allowance win among 3 domestic starts since arriving. She's had significant spacing between starts and a couple of local workouts over the track in preparation. First try beyond a mile since leaving Peru, where she showed plenty of stamina. Pieces to like, dislike.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
MORNING MATCHA is 21-26 in the trifecta lifetime, including 3-3 in Delaware Park stakes. She's my play Sunday.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
QUEEN OF MISSOULA should be running late when others are tired, and that could land a share.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$70 win MORNING MATCHA. $10 exacta box MORNING MATCHA and WET PAINT ($20). $5 exacta box MORNING MATCH and HONOR D LADY ($10).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2024, 08:22 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 7, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park begins the week with a 15-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

7-Liteningonthebeach (2-1)-Aaron Merriman steers for the Bercury barn and this combo has posted 27% winners. Bumps up but this is not a field full of proven winners at this level. Won last at the Mea with the same pilot in the bike and tried a different plan. Rolled home with a 54.1 back half, and Merriman has good gate speed to use or could look for a covered trip.
8-Saulsbrook Genesis (5/2)-Ronnie Wrenn gets the nod and the Burke veteran has shown the ability to beat straight Open company. That's the good news, the not so good part is the one above has a better chance of getting on the point off the gate. It won't be easy, but the price could be better than the morning line and has the ability to grind it out with an honest pace.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

1-Winning Shadow (5/2)-This 9-year-old got his way on the front end in last and now takes a double bump up. Normally would shy away but the veteran can win at this level, especially against this field. Best to respect, a cozy trip is probably coming. Did bank >$130k in 2023 and has won 35% of its Nfld races.
3-Dudley (6-1)-Bumps up after winning on a sloppy track. Could be overlooked, and might surprise with a sharp drive. Does good work at Nfld (7-2-1-1).
5-Kandy Sweet (7/2)-Drops after a decent try versus better and Billy Davis Jr sticks. The trip will be key, and could be driven aggressively. Might have the gate speed to land on the point, and could seal the deal with a well-rated mile.
6-Doc's Spirit (20-1)-Willing to take a swing for a large price as this Scott Cox entry ships in from the Meadows. Does good work here and has shown the ability this spring at Nfld to beat better than this crew. Ryan Stahl needs a live cover flow and to push the button at the right time.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-Buy In (5/2)-Ships back from Scioto after racing over its head there. Posted its last win against this kind here on May 5. Ken Holiday will probably look to get on the engine and could be tough to tackle.
3-Pitt Panda (7/2)-Has only 1 win in 11 starts this year. Fits with this bunch and could benefit from a dry track. Two of the last 3 starts were on a sloppy track and has only 1 win in 10 races on a wet surface. Billy Davis Jr could leave, get a cozy pocket ride and post a trip-out win.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

5-Elite Machine (7/2)-Gets some post relief and has good gate speed. Billy Davis Jr should have the pedal down. Could go gate to wire if it doesn't work too hard to get on the point.
6-Melodies Major (6-1)-Drops to a more competitive spot and shouldn't blush at the competition. Hunter Myers needs to provide a smooth trip and can start well enough to get a close-up seat. The price should be right to use, on top and in gimmicks.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

7,8/1,3,5,6/2,3/5,6
Total Bet=$32

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2024, 08:23 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #5

#8 Strummin	He has been pretty reliable through those first four starts with shares to his name in each one, and he might find himself in a good midpack spot while stretching out on the grass today.
#6 Bright Skittle	He has been solid through two starts and landed a piece with stakes company last time out, but I worry he'll be overbet on the drop. One of the obvious ones.
#2 Courageous Clay	Debuter isn't meeting what feels like the deepest group on paper today, so get a look at him on the track ahead of this one. Might be worth having on the deeper plays.
Race Summary	Strummin moves around two turns on the turf after showing some reliable interest going short on the main track, and he may offer a fair enough price today despite owning that good form.

Ellis Park - Race #8

#2 Sahalat	He has yet to run a bad one through three starts, and I liked his graduation score at Churchill last month. Thinking he'll get another perfect first-over trip.
#7 Bad Boy Frank	He may offer a decent price after needing to head to Belterra to land that first score, but he wasn't totally overmatched in some tougher groups prior to that and has some versatility in his settle-and-finish running style.
#6 Lakota Territory	Wouldn't be any surprise to see him step right up to handle winners today after a nice score at 9/5 in his Gulfstream debut earlier this year. Tactical pace should find a good trip.
Race Summary	Sahalat and Lakota Territory look like a couple of tough risers making the difficult step to face winners, and I'm going to try to get Bad Boy Frank in the picture with one of them within the race.

Ellis Park - Race #9

#8 Kalispera	She's an honest enough finisher whose only dull American race came in Grade II company, and I think her baseline stuff is supposed to get the job done today.
#4 Hidden Class	Have a little interest in seeing what this one can do on the move around two turns. Maybe she just hasn't (and won't) progress from the solid races to open her career, but she'll go third off the break today with some upside and at least a little proven form buried in her past.
#6 Weigh the Risks	Dangerous team sends out this one with some fairly mild running lines to her credit, but she was only a couple lengths off similar last time out and probably doesn't need a huge step forward to get in the frame.
Race Summary	Kalispera looks like the right one, but I also won't be upset if Hidden Class wakes up at a price while getting around two turns today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2024, 08:23 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Grand Prairie
PURCHASE

Grand Prairie - Race 3	Pick 3 ( Races 3-4-5 ) / Exactor / No Show Wagering
Stakes • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $14,100 • Post: 2:05P
A.C.T.R.A. ALBERTA BRED S. - THOROUGHBRED STAKE FOR FILLIES & MARES, THREE YEAR OLD'S & UPWARD. HORSES MUST HAVE STARTED TWICE ON A CLASS B TRACK IN 2023 / 24. ENTRY FEE OF $150 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. WICKED WOMAN is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * THE RIVER GREY: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. SUGAR M OON: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. WICKED WOMAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMast er Power Rating.
4	THE RIVER GREY	4/5	7/2
1	SUGAR MOON	4/1	4/1
3	WICKED WOMAN	5/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SUGAR MOON	1	4/1	Front-runner	64	67	78.0	57.0	52.0
4	THE RIVER GREY	4	4/5	Front-runner	58	67	0.0	72.1	68.1
3	WICKED WOMAN	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	60	0.0	60.0	55.0
2	SASSY CINDERELLA	2	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	49	72.3	56.0	51.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2024, 08:24 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Wyoming Downs
PURCHASE

Wyoming Downs - Race 9	$2 First Half Late Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $2 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta ($.10 Box)
Stakes • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $21,500 • Post: 4:25P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, RAYSHA'S RUN - RACING FOR A CURE S. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEAR OLDS AND OLDER. HIGH MONEY EARNED IN 2023 AND 2024 AT TIME OF NOMINATION PREFERRED. FREE NOMINATIONS DUE BY JUNE 30, 2024 BY 2:00 PM. $150 TO ENTER. THREE YEAR OLDS . 126 LBS. OLDER.128 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MS FLAMING FINISH: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
5	MS FLAMING FINISH	4/1	2/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CHARM	1	8/1	Average	74	74	3.9	0.0	0.0
2	JKH ALMOST A DYNASTY	2	5/1	Fast/Trouble-prone	75	69	1.1	0.0	0.0
3	CAYENNEOVERTHEMOON	3	3/1	Fast	76	75	3.3	0.0	0.0
4	UNAVAILABLE	4	8/1	Average	75	75	4.2	0.0	0.0
5	MS FLAMING FINISH	5	4/1	Fast	88	93	3.4	0.0	0.0
6	KEVINS KNOCKOUT	6	10/1	Average	76	76	4.3	0.0	0.0
7	CARTEL NIGHT	7	12/1	Average	72	68	4.8	0.0	0.0
8	DRIVE	8	8/1	Fast	75	74	2.3	0.0	0.0
9	SO SIXY IT HURTS	9	10/1	Average	86	74	5.1	0.0	0.0
10	UD CHOLULA	10	12/1	Fast	75	70	3.3	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2024, 08:24 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $76000 Class Rating: 96

ELP - R7 - FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERSOF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE MAY 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 CROWN IMPERIAL 6/1
# 1 EXCELLENT QUESTION 4/1
# 6 WORK OF FICTION 9/2

I've got to go with CROWN IMPERIAL. Make a note that this one runs on Lasix today. Should be given consideration in this race if only for the competitive Equibase Speed Figure put up in the last contest. EXCELLENT QUESTION - Overall the speed figures of this horse look respectable in this race. This filly could improve on Lasix. WORK OF FICTION - Must be considered - I like the figures from the last competition.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2024, 08:24 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race #2 - Post: 2:38pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#5 PRAEFECTUS URBANUS (ML=6/1)

PRAEFECTUS URBANUS - Comes out of a last event against 'open' company on May 18th and faces what I believe are easier 'state breds' today. Jockey jumped on this colt's back for the 1st ride on May 18th. Should be in touch with the horse even better in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CANYON SHADOWS (ML=1/1), #6 CRUZIN N CURSIN (ML=9/2), #3 TIGGER ATTACK (ML=5/1),

CANYON SHADOWS - Showed very little in the last event. Really don't see any hint of a reversal of fortune today. CRUZIN N CURSIN - Doesn't appear to have enough good qualities to warrant the price. TIGGER ATTACK - No accomplishments for this entrant in a sprint contest over the last couple of months tells me that this gelding is in a formidable circumstance I'd like to see more conducive recent showings with morning line odds of 5/1.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 PRAEFECTUS URBANUS to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2024, 08:25 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6800 Class Rating: 11

FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; , 120 LBS. 1# A CLASFS.$8,000 ALLOWED 1 LBS. 2# A CLASFS. INFERIOR Y DEBTS ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 YA SABE 15/1
# 8 JUSTY CALIL 5/2
# 3 MI NINA PONCENA 3/1

YA SABE has a strong shot to take this affair and is a competitive value bet given the line at 15/1. Looks decent to be up near the front end at the first call. JUSTY CALIL - With one of the strongest riders in terms of profits at the window, don't count this filly out. MI NINA PONCENA - This filly has to be considered just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-07-2024, 08:25 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Monmouth Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:50pm - Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

#8 FAMOUS GENT (ML=6/1)
#4 SUMMER IN ADRIANE (ML=5/2)

FAMOUS GENT - Solid average class rating on this horse. Should have the capability to run well on the turf. In this race here, this horse has registered the highest speed rating at the distance, so I have to give him the edge. Finished off the board last out at Saratoga, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 6/1 makes me think he's got a chance. SUMMER IN ADRIANE - I like when a thoroughbred has dropped in class at least 5-points like this one did last time out and then runs against a similar field right back. Morley must've found the right class. Morley is strong in grass sprints. This equine should have no justifications if he doesn't win. Taking this rider/handler combination is a good choice. Came home fast last time around the track at Belmont at the Big A. That type of move bodes well for his chances in this event. Gets help from Morley with the addition of Lasix.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 POWER ATTACK (ML=2/1), #7 BEWARE OF PRIDE (ML=5/1), #1 TRAINER PLEASE (ML=8/1),

POWER ATTACK - Trying to beat this one this time around at the reward of 2/1. BEWARE OF PRIDE - This thoroughbred hasn't had nary a single drill after running so well on June 13th. TRAINER PLEASE - I can't play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the assignment done once in a while. He probably cannot repeat that last stretch run effort and win against this bunch. The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a likely underlay.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 FAMOUS GENT to win at post-time odds of 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	8 with 4 with [6,7,9] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Sunday 7/7/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Sunday 7/7/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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