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Meet the Contenders: Schuylerville Stakes at Saratoga | Thursday

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July 9, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Opening day at Saratoga kicks off New York’s premier racing meeting on Thursday. The traditional feature to start Saratoga summers is the Schuylerville Stakes for 2-year-old fillies, highlight of an 11-race card that gets underway at 1:10 pm ET.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Schuylerville (Race 10):

#1-AORAKI: $11,000 bargain buy won her debut at Churchill in May before a head runner-up in the Astoria over this track during the Belmont Stakes Festival. Steve Asmussen has trained a trio of Schuylerville winners (2008, ’09, ’13). Sire Dominus was a Saratoga dirt allowance winner and graded stakes winner on the local turf.

#2-WEST MEMORIAL: 17-1 upset winner of Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Juvenile Stakes in May was disappointing in her reappearance when fifth in the Astoria over the Saratoga track on June 6. Daughter of Caracaro makes her first start for George Weaver, who returns from suspension. Jockey Manny Franco takes over, fresh off a meet title during Belmont at Aqueduct.

#3-SHERBINI: Daylight winner of her only start at Churchill Downs in a restricted maiden contest. Pulled clear late at 11-1 odds for trainer Mark Casse, who won the ’18 Schuylerville with Catherinethegreat.

#4-SLANG: $190,000 Omaha Beach filly was a second-start maiden break at Churchill Downs for the Norm Casse barn. No match late at first asking vs. eventual Debutante Stakes winner Vodka With a Twist, a race conducted over a sloppy track.

#5-COMPLEXION: Smashing, 6-1/2 length debut winner during the Belmont at Aqueduct meeting didn’t catch anyone by surprise while strongly favored. The $400,000 daughter of Complexity is bred for speed on both sides and returns jockey John Velazquez, a record 5-time winner of the Schuylerville. Trainer Danny Gargan hopes to ride the momentum of Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch back to the Spa.

#6-CARMEN’S CANDY JAR: Vino Rosso filly surged late to win her debut against restricted maidens June 23 as the 3-5 favorite. Moves upstate for Todd Pletcher, whose 6 Schuylerville victories are tied with D. Wayne Lukas for most in race history. Granddaughter of

#7-DREAMGIRL: 12-1 Churchill Downs debut upsetter for Mike Maker outlasted the competition on the front over 5 furlongs. Mo Town filly drew $65,000 bid in April at Ocala. Jockey Luis Saez seeks a third Schuylerville win.

#8-WHATINTHELITERAL: Took 3 starts to break her maiden, but did so with a 13-1 upset in the Astoria Stakes over this Saratoga track on June 6. Jockey Javier Castellano aims for back-to-back Schuylerville wins and a potential fourth of his career. Trainer Jena Antonucci is best-known for 2023 Belmont-Travers winner Archangelo.

#9-LONG NECK PAULA: $500,000 Ocala March purchase paid quick dividends with a May 2 wire job in her Churchill Downs debut over 4-1/2 furlongs. Trainer Wesley Ward loses jockey John Velazquez to Complexion on Thursday, but picks up Flavien Prat. Dam Take Charge Paula won her first 2 starts and was a multiple stakes winner as a juvenile.

#10-VIGGIEDAL: Five-length debut winner June 14 at Churchill Downs is by red-hot first-crop sire Vekoma, whose juveniles are a ridiculous 19: 10-3-3 so far this year. Tyler Gaffalione rides for 3-time Schuylerville-winning trainer Steve Asmussen. $350,000 Ocala purchase in March should vie for favoritism.

#-11: THE QUEENS M G: 45-1 Keeneland debut stunner was sold in the aftermath, but unable to deliver in her Astoria Stakes return as the 2-1 favorite. Troubled start at Saratoga put the Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee in makeup mode and she faded to finish seventh. Barn has been hot throughout July, including Saturday’s Delaware Handicap victory by Honor D Lady.

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Saratoga Scouting Report: July 11-14, 2024

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July 8, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saratoga Scouting Report: July 11-14, 2024

Key Races
Thursday | Schuylerville Stakes (2yo fillies)
Friday | Coronation Cup (3yo filly turf sprint), Wilton (3yo fillies)
Saturday | G1 Diana (f&m turf), G3 Kelso (turf mile), G3 Sanford (2yo)
Sunday | Quick Call (turf sprint)

Horsepower
Thursday | ’23 G1 Preakness runner-up Blazing Sevens (R9 allowance)
Friday | ’24 G1 Al Quoz Sprint runner-up Star of Mystery (R9 Coronation Cup)
Saturday: ’23 G2 Hall of Fame winner Carl Spackler (R2 G3 Kelso)
Saturday: ’23 G1 Diana winner Whitebeam (R10 G1 Diana)
Saturday: ’24 G1 Just a Game winner Chili Flag (R10 G1 Diana)
Saturday: ’24 G1 New York winner Didia (R10 G1 Diana)
Saturday: ’22 Queen’s Plate winner Moira (R10 G1 Diana)
Sunday: ’24 Palisades winner Fandom (probable, Quick Call Stakes TBD)

Extra Incentives
Daily | Late Pick 4 | 2 Million 1/ST Wager Rewards Points Hit & Split

Tracking the Trends
-- Favorites won 41.5% during opening week of the 2023 Saratoga meeting (32% year prior).
-- 4 of 41 winners were longshots at 20-1 or more during Saratoga ‘23 opening week.
-- 22 of 41 opening week ’23 Saratoga winners exited races in New York; 13 out of state; 6 first-time starters.
-- Trainer Linda Rice went 13: 5-4-1 during Saratoga’s opening week ’23 (4-4 with favorites).
-- The Ortiz Brothers both won a colony-best 7 races during Saratoga’s opening week ’23 while hitting 24-25% apiece.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Hawthorne - Race #5

#2 Thunderstrike	Not totally against her if this stays on the turf, but this is more of a lean if this one comes over to the main after a few days of rain in the forecast. Her tactical sprint pace might leave her in a good spot while stretching out.
#6 Crossanna	She has finished up well in both starts so far, and she's the clear one to beat after those first two efforts. Price is going to be short, but she figures to show up again late.
#4 Deal'em and Weep	She comes out of the same barn as Crossanna, and they look like they've probably got this one locked down if it stays on the turf. Second-out upside could make her tough.
Race Summary	Thunderstrike might get a perfect tracking run in a short field if this comes over to the main, but she has a little upside trying two turns on turf, too. Willing to give her a look on either surface, but a less-invested look on the turf.

Hawthorne - Race #6

#6 Lit Miss Hat Trick	She outran her price when making her debut here last month, and she might be in the right spot to track the likely favorite into the turn. Any update puts her in the frame.
#4 Arrivedercci	She might drill these for a team that has landed half of the similar local special weights over the last few years, and this brings serious local sprint pedigree up and down. Would expect her to be fast.
#1 Little Poison	She's another who goes for the Rivelli barn, and she has turned in a couple quick works along the way ahead of this. Guessing her stablemate will take most of the cash.
Race Summary	Lit Miss Hat Trick looked OK at first asking when chasing pace, and she might be in line for a similar go today behind Arrivedercci.

Hawthorne - Race #7

#5 Command Point	She steps up in reliable form and could be the right horse at the right time in a race with a few key horses bringing flat form from tougher circuits.
#1 R Katiebug	She is super honest at this kind of trip and should be in a great spot with her manageable pace from the fence. Think she's an OK fit with these.
#4 Spicy Italian	Not much to write home about on her page right now, but her best races have come over the main track here, and the weather forecast may cooperate to give her another shot over that surface.
Race Summary	Command Point rises from claiming company while in good form, and a lot of these are looking to reclaim their better form today with the locals.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Canterbury Park - Race #3

#4 GLOBAL RISK (3-1)	Faces weaker field at the same level, worth the risk today.
#6 COLLIER (5-2)	No match in MSW company, ran third for $10k at Hawthorne in between.
#7 PRINCESS VANELLOPE (5-1)	Burned money at start in Fonner Park debut off steady work tab.
Race Summary	GLOBAL RISK failed as the 1-to-5 favorite two starts ago, then dueled inside the two favorites and finished third in a faster-paced follow-up try. She has no excuse against six rivals who stand a combined 16/0-0-1. Bet to win and place and play 4-6 and 4-7 exactas.

Canterbury Park - Race #4

#9 SHAMAN SEZ (9-2)	Hails from 20-percent debut barn; dam romped twice on the Canterbury lawn.
#7 LATIN FORCE (7-2)	Duplicate of lone 7-1/2F start on the grass could be enough to graduate.
#3 JOSH’S DRAMA (8-1)	Has speed, hit board in 3 of last 5 starts, cuts back from route races.
Race Summary	SHAMAN SEZ debuts for Robertson and has good bloodlines in an unproven field of turf runners. His sire, Shaman Ghost, was a multiple graded stakes winner and multimillionaire; his dam, Rock That Jewel, won back-to-back route races on the lawn in Maiden Special Weight and allowance company for the same barn as a 3-year-old. Play a 9-ALL exacta.

Canterbury Park - Race #5

#5 GOT GHOSTED (8-1)	Longshot stab off troubled trip on the lawn two starts back.
#6 LEGALLY REDDY (4-1)	Big numbers and a lot of runner-up finishes at Turf Paradise.
#8 IT’S BOB’S BUSI	Stretched out, led to stretch in unfamiliar lead role, gets Lasix.
Race Summary	GOT GHOSTED, 4-wide on the final turn, checked in traffic at the quarter pole, losing all chance in a state-bred turf allowance two back at this distance. He then chased the favorite most of the way around the main track when second in a follow-up mile. He’s worth a win and place bet. Also play a 5-6-8 exacta box.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs
PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 5:57P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 11, 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. LOUISIANA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SKIPPA is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SKIPPA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. FAMILY CREED: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front- runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	SKIPPA	8/5	5/2
4	FAMILY CREED	8/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	G E H GIANTS WAY	6	3/1	Front-runner	79	76	50.6	58.2	49.2
4	FAMILY CREED	4	8/1	Front-runner	75	69	50.2	63.6	58.1
2	SKIPPA	2	8/5	Stalker	79	75	61.6	75.4	71.4
7	STRONG PROSPECT	7	7/2	Trailer	61	65	9.1	63.0	56.5
1	ARKANSAS ZONG	1	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	76	70	57.4	57.4	50.4
5	BYATHREAD	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	67	37.6	41.4	28.4
3	HEZA SEXY ZONG	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	71	33.6	59.6	51.1

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Crooked River Roundup
PURCHASE

Crooked River Roundup - Race 6	$3 Win, Place, Show $3 Quinella / $3 Trifecta ($1 Tri Box)
Claiming $8,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $6,500 • Post: 9:20P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. LORD OF LIGHT is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LORD OF LIGHT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. AIN'T NO SISSY: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. SENOR FABULOSO: Horse ranks in the t op three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. WORKDAY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
2	LORD OF LIGHT	5/2	9/2
1	AIN'T NO SISSY	4/1	5/1
4	SENOR FABULOSO	9/2	7/1
5	WORKDAY	8/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	WORKDAY	5	8/1	Front-runner	76	70	42.3	60.5	57.0
6	LUCCA'S LEGACY	6	6/1	Front-runner	52	50	25.3	35.4	23.9
1	AIN'T NO SISSY	1	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	70	74	68.8	68.0	59.5
2	LORD OF LIGHT	2	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	77	71	39.5	68.4	64.4
4	SENOR FABULOSO	4	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	81	77	26.5	64.8	59.3
3	BEER BEGONE	3	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	62	59	54.3	43.6	32.1
7	PACKRAT BRANT	7	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	53	0.0	60.0	48.5

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 62

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 10, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $5,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 ALWAYS CONNECTED 4/1
# 4 LOVELY DRAMA 3/1
# 3 RITZ ON BROADWAY 2/1

ALWAYS CONNECTED looks to be the bet in here. She has been racing very well recently while recording sharp Equibase Speed Figs. Looks solid versus this field and will probably be one of the leaders. Has to be carefully examined in here if only for the respectable speed figure put up in the last race. LOVELY DRAMA - Is worth looking at and may be a wager - strong speed figures (52 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Pickett has her trained admirably to break quickly out of the starting gate. RITZ ON BROADWAY - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this filly.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Thistledown - Race #6 - Post: 3:20pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,400 Class Rating: 58

Rating:

#5 REDDEN (ML=3/1)
#2 GIBBY MY CORN (ML=15/1)


REDDEN - This speedy sort should benefit from this contest's shorter trip. The rest of the group may trail this mount all the way around the track. Another way to evaluate class is earnings per race. This horse has the highest in the field. I think he'll be close at the end. GIBBY MY CORN - Peterson rode this horse for the initial time last time around the track and comes right back this time. Last race was at Thistledown in a race with a class figure of 69. Dropping a significant amount in Equibase class figure this time out puts him in a solid position today. If this gelding goes off at a big price, I have to make a bet. He' has some wins as a longshot.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LITTLE RONS ROCKET (ML=9/5), #4 NO MAS CERVEZA (ML=2/1), #1 ONE STEP ASIDE (ML=5/1),

LITTLE RONS ROCKET - Tough to put any cash on this gelding on the win end. Likes to finish in the money though. Tough to like the downward spiraling flow (56/52/49) of Equibase speed figures. This runner has had no success at Thistledown. NO MAS CERVEZA - Common speed rating last time around the track at Thistledown at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this questionable contender will improve too much in today's race. ONE STEP ASIDE - Didn't end up on the board on June 5th at Thistledown. Followed it up with another lackluster performance. Disappointing fig last time around the track at Thistledown at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this less than sharp equine will improve too much today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 REDDEN to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $46240 Class Rating: 93

IND - R7 - FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, RESTRICTED OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 YARBOROUGH 7/2
# 9 I HAD THAT ONE TOO 6/1
# 8 BIG BRASS BED 4/1

I like YARBOROUGH here. As of late Reed has provided wagerers with a very good winning percentage with horses travelling in turf route races. With Roman controlling the reins on her, this mare will most likely be able to break out early for this event. Posted a solid speed figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race. I HAD THAT ONE TOO - McGee has this filly running well and is a strong selection based on the strong speed figures posted in route races lately. As of late Morales has been scorching which may give the edge to this filly. BIG BRASS BED - The odds may be just right on this entrant. Has posted sound Speed Figures in turf route races in the past.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:25pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,800 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#7 CASTLE TOY (ML=7/2)


CASTLE TOY - You'll be making money left and right by turning your betting money onto this jockey/trainer combination.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 CHEROKEE CASTLE (ML=4/5), #5 WINDSOR'S PLAY (ML=5/1), #1 BEST VIRGINIA (ML=8/1),

CHEROKEE CASTLE - Can't really play this kind of oft beaten chalk. You always believe this equine has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but she falls short regularly. WINDSOR'S PLAY - The speed rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this mount as a questionable challenger. BEST VIRGINIA - Difficult to wager on any thoroughbred in a sprint race at 8/1 when she hasn't shown any on the board results in sprints in the last 60 days.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #7 CASTLE TOY to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip