Friday 7/12/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-12-2024, 08:17 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 12, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Hoosier Park begins the weekend with a 14-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Don't forget to register for the Hit and Split Promo at the Big M on Saturday.

Race 11 (10:09 PM EST)

5-M-M's Tony (5/2)-Recent form has been dull but this is a spot to wake-up. Drops in the 4th start off the bench and draws a choice post. Should be a player and hopefully won't be over bet.
6-VP Rockin (3-1)-Has been battling $34k claimers without any success. The last 4 starts have netted no checks and has enough money off its card to land in a winnable situation.

Race 12 (10:32 PM EST)

1-Goodness Graycious (4-1)-Cashed checks against ISS company but couldn't seal the deal in the last 2 starts. Has only 1 win in 12 races at HoP but this isn't a deep group and drawing the rail shouldn't hurt its chances.
4-Rolling Image (8/5)-Program chalk has hit the board in the last 4 races against ISS 3-year-olds. Drops into a more comfortable spot. Does good work at Hoosier (10-3-3-3) and the Tyler George pupil looks like a main player.

Race 13 (10:55 PM EST)

2-Gullfaxi (5-1)-Sat the pocket into a slow pace in last and finished a close 2nd. Should be in striking range turning for the wire and my guess is they don't walk to the half in 57.1 tonight.
3-Play Me Rock (5/2)-Started in the 2nd tier, made the most of a fast pace and came off cover to win. This will be the 4th race since shipping in from MVR and could benefit from a confidence boosting victory last week.

Race 14 (11:18 PM EST)

5-Rip Wheeler (3-1)-Comes off a gate to wire score, now steps up but can dance with this kind. Branden Bates should be racing with the leaders if not on the point off the gate. Should get a clean trip and is a double up possibility.
6-Cool Moment (7/2)-Ships in from Oak Grove after some dull races and had breaking issues. Had been facing stakes company and now lands in a nice spot to take a picture. Team Putman entry has done well at Hoosier (7-3-2-0) and if minds its manners could post the 1st win this year.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

5,6/1,4/2,3/5,6
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-12-2024, 08:17 AM

Colonial Downs Pick 3 Friday, July 12

July 12, 2024 | By Frank Carulli

COLONIAL DOWNS PICK 3
Friday, July 12, 2024

Colonial Downs, the first pari-mutuel track in Virginia, will begin its 27th season this week. The combination of big fields, turf races galore and top trainers and jockeys from around the country paved the way for a record-breaking year in 2023. Nine turf races are scheduled on the Friday, July 12 card, but two dirt races will get the action started with $1 Pick 3 wagering available. Here's a closer look:

CNL 1st race (4:30 p.m. EST) -- WILEY WIZARD slowed down after a :36-1/5 debut bullet workout at Keeneland June 1. He had a useful :48-4/5 breeze from the gate last Saturday and could be ready to upgrade the barn’s 1-for-30 record the last three years with first-time maiden claimers, 13 of whom were dismissed at 6-1 odds or less. MISTER WOODFORD gave way chasing an even-money first-time starter at Churchill Downs after posing no threat in a Keeneland sprint that produced a stakes-placed and two Maiden Special Weight runners-up. He also wears blinkers for the first time. GREY SHADOW takes a magnified drop from MSW company, considering his first two starts produced next-out MSW winners and his most recent race on a sloppy track produced the top speed figure in this field and was dominated by a pair of sub 2-to-1 favorites.
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CNL 2nd race (5:00 p.m. EST) -- STYLE AND PROFILE pressed the pace in the 3-path, was no match for the 3-to-5 winner but battled gamely to the wire and got caught by the second favorite for the place spot. She gets class relief for the track’s all-time leading trainer Ferris Allen III. LOKI’S LIGHTNING has speed and the rail and should carry it better on the class drop and the cutback from a pair of two-turn MSW sprints at Charles Town.

CNL 3rd race (5:30 p.m. EST) -- NOBLE GENTLEMAN returns to the turf an improved horse -- if his form on Turfway Park’s synthetic track is an indicator. He broke his maiden at this distance with a 71 Beyer, rallied for third in a $30,000/nw2 long sprint with first-time Lasix, then dueled on the lead and tired in a productive starter allowance dominated by closers. FIRST SLEW returns to his maiden-breaking surface and distance. He finished in a dead heat for the win but finished 5-1/2 lengths in front of Fire Baron, who recently ran third in a $40,000 turf maiden claimer at Saratoga. ELUSIVE broke his maiden on the Colonial Downs lawn for $25,000 last fall, taking the measure of Dr. Hyde, a recent $20,000/nw2 runner-up at Laurel Park. He then earned his top speed figure when third in a starter allowance. He finished last in two starts since then but remains a wake-up candidate at a big price with McCarthy aboard. The ‘For Sale’ sign goes up on QUOKKA, who won a $90,000 Maiden Special Weight grass route at Aqueduct the first time he raced on turf, but he pulled up and was eased last out in an allowance at Indiana Downs against a mid-70 Beyer type winner and a last place finisher who came back with an allowance victory. With rain in the Friday forecast, add numbers 5 and 8 to the ticket if this race is switched to the main track.

Suggested $1 Pick 3 Ticket
CNL 1st Race: 1, 2, 4
CNL 2nd Race: 1, 7
CNL 3rd Race: 1, 2, 4, 6 [If off the turf: 1, 4, 5, 8]
Cost for $1 ticket: $24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-12-2024, 08:18 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #6

#11 America's Honor	He may have caught a nice one last out, checking in a well-beaten third behind that nine-length winner who has not been back to race since, so I'll take what I think is a company line play. Barn won a similar race with a Monmouth second-timer here last year.
#10 Classic Time	He ran well when flashing pace and digging in to just miss at first asking, and any reasonable step forward off that effort would make him one of the ones.
#6 King's Leap	Considered him on top, so I'd want him prominent on a lot of the plays -- check him out on the tote and track ahead of this, but I'm guessing he'll be ready.
Race Summary	America's Honor has some appeal going second out for a barn that won in a similar spot last summer with a similar horse, and I think he's going to validate that open-length Monmouth winner.

Saratoga - Race #9

#13 Golden Degree	Her form has gone through the roof since joining the Rice barn, and she earned this class hike with those two wins by nearly 40 combined lengths. The one if this comes over.
#10 Star of Mystery	She was just third when facing older Grade I boys in the Jaipur in her North American debut, and anything even remotely near that should handle this group at a short price. I'm always willing to overthink it -- but there's no way around it for me in this one. She's just supposed to win this by basically every measure.
#5 Twirling Queen	She seems like the main danger with pace that might give her just a slight jump on the chalk, but I am not sold that she's going to find enough to turn away that challenge.
Race Summary	Star of Mystery is one of those short-priced favorites I am not willing to stand against -- her last is in a bit of a different league than the rest of these. I think #4 Pipsy has a small claim on this one while turning back, but I'm worried she won't offer a price that's appealing enough to justify her compared to some of the others in here.

Saratoga - Race #10

#11 Guile	He has found himself a pretty snug home at this kind of level, and he'll get a shot on the turf with capable sire Blame on top of the pedigree. Tactical pace has some appeal today on either surface.
#8 Adventurous Spirit	He has some form on the drop that makes me think someone will find a home for him with hopes that he'll wind up a useful horse given a few competitive special weight tries. Also good to see that he bounced right out of his last with some works, so the drop doesn't seem as full of red flags on paper.
#13 Always Be Smart	Think his better Churchill and Oaklawn form would probably do the trick if this comes over to the main, but I'd still try to pair him up with the top choice.
Race Summary	Guile has turned in a couple honest tries, and he might like the turf enough to take a small step forward today -- that might be all he needs to land a race like this. Consider #1 Torpedo Run if you plan to be live from a price you love elsewhere.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-12-2024, 08:18 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1

#6 ANAITA (7-2)	Impressed in both grass sprint victories, today’s Best Bet to three-peat.
#8 STRESSED (3-1)	Claimed out of dull try at Lone Star Park, still merits long look on class drop.
#5 GOLDEN CAM (6-1)	No match for top one but ran second in last two 5-1/2F sprints.
Race Summary	ANAITA, a lightly-raced but productive 5-year-old, seeks her third consecutive win since transitioning to the turf. She out-dueled the 4-to-5 favorite through solid fractions to spring a 16-1 upset at this distance. Then she repeated after rearing slightly in the gate, getting squeezed at the break and swinging 6-wide for a stretch rally. Bet to win and place and play 6-5 and 6-8 exactas.

Laurel Park - Race #2

#2 MONEY ROOM (7-5)	Sat good trip but held off the favorite to win off Farrior claim, likely repeater.
#6 WHATAHARDMANFIDEAD (4-1)	Steady route form of late, gets big weight break from his rivals.
#1 LAW OF THE JUNGLE (7-2)	Ran 1-2 in last three starts at Laurel under the same conditions.
Race Summary	MONEY ROOM eased out off the dueling leaders, circled 4-wide into the stretch and held off the favorite to win with the top speed figure of his career. Hard to look past him on the return to the $12,500 level for this barn. Bet to win and place and play 2-1 and 2-6 exactas.

Laurel Park - Race #6

#1 NATTY BUMPPO (7-2)	Appears all set to make good first impression from difficult post.
#8 RAPIDITY (9-2)	Returns to dirt sprint for barn in the midst of 16-for-70 run with claims.
#3 THIS IS GOOD (5-2)	Stalked duel, ran second when last seen in November, gets Lasix.
Race Summary	NATTY BUMPOO shows some flashy works over the track to get ready for his debut. He will need to show that zip with the rail draw but we will give him the nod to do so. His dam, Riveting (9-39, $232k), was a second-out winner at age 3 and two-time allowance winner that same year. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-12-2024, 08:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Monmouth Park
PURCHASE

Monmouth Park - Race 5	Win, Place and Show Exacta, 50-Cent Trifecta and 10-Cent Superfecta Daily Double (Races 5-6)/50-Cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) 50-Cent Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $16,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 3:55P
(RAIL AT 36 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE MAY 12 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $14,000 1 LB. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. PAUCILOQUENT is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * SISTER NELL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" des ignation. WISH LIST: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ARMONIA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WHAT'S GOOD: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SINGLEB ERYLBOURBON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
6	SISTER NELL	4/1	9/2
4	WISH LIST	5/2	6/1
7	ARMONIA	8/1	8/1
9	WHAT'S GOOD	9/2	8/1
2	SINGLEBERYLBOURBON	4/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	WHAT'S GOOD	9	9/2	Front-runner	74	76	75.0	66.6	60.1
2	SINGLEBERYLBOURBON	2	4/1	Front-runner	75	72	64.8	65.2	53.2
8	IT'S GOODTOBE JOSE	8	6/1	Front-runner	74	68	53.9	63.3	54.8
1	PAUCILOQUENT	1	15/1	Stalker	67	62	60.7	60.7	42.7
5	COLLECTIVE GOLD	5	6/1	Trailer	78	66	61.4	71.2	57.2
7	ARMONIA	7	8/1	Trailer	75	77	60.8	72.2	63.2
4	WISH LIST	4	5/2	Trailer	76	77	59.7	71.4	67.4
6	SISTER NELL	6	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	82	78	61.6	76.2	71.7
3	HIPATIA	3	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	52	54.3	56.6	41.6
10	SMART RED	10	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	58	52.1	64.2	47.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-12-2024, 08:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Meadows
PURCHASE

Fair Meadows - Race 11	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double
Allowance • 110 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $17,500 • Post: 10:10
QUARTER HORSE 110Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * TRADEMARQUE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. HEY SOUL SISTR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AJK FORGIVEN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the dista nce/surface. VALIANTS DASH: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
7	TRADEMARQUE	3/1	4/1
1	HEY SOUL SISTR	7/2	5/1
9	AJK FORGIVEN	5/2	8/1
10	VALIANTS DASH	4/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	HEY SOUL SISTR	1	7/2	Average	96	89	3.6	0.0	0.0
2	DOG HOUSE ROSE	2	20/1	Average	60	55	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	KOOL KA CHING	3	15/1	Average	85	73	3.6	0.0	0.0
4	NONE BAR ZEVI	4	20/1	Fast	65	70	1.1	0.0	0.0
5	KIKI KARTEL	5	20/1	Fast	82	73	3.1	0.0	0.0
6	CHEW BLEW BY YOU	6	12/1	Fast	85	77	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	TRADEMARQUE	7	3/1	Fast	96	92	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	STINNETT	8	20/1	Average	80	70	3.6	0.0	0.0
9	AJK FORGIVEN	9	5/2	Average	87	87	6.0	0.0	0.0
10	VALIANTS DASH	10	4/1	Average	85	87	4.7	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-12-2024, 08:19 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Saratoga - Race #7 - Post: 4:38pm - SO - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $70,000 Class Rating: 95

Rating:

#12 FRONT MAN (ML=10/1)
#4 CLASSIC CREATION (ML=6/1)
#5 PALACE VIEW (IRE) (ML=9/2)

FRONT MAN - This gelding is in excellent form right now. Ran second last out and comes back rapidly. I'm focusing on the class of this horse, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. CLASSIC CREATION - Prat and Terranova partnered up are a punter's friend. Running on the grass today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch. PALACE VIEW (IRE) - You'll be generating money right and left by turning your racing money onto this jockey/conditioner combination. Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a solid outing on June 23rd.

Vulnerable Contenders: #14 STRAPPED (ML=5/2), #7 MAURITIUS (ML=4/1), #15 GUN MAESTRO (ML=9/2),

STRAPPED - In the last race this mount finished fourth. Doesn't look promising for his chances this time around. Registered a most unsatisfactory rating last time around the track in a Starter Allowance race on May 18th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that number. MAURITIUS - The lack of morning drills has to make one concerned despite the good effort in the last race. You think this equine is going to win just because he's always close. Just doesn't get the job done frequently. GUN MAESTRO - Would have to perk up off that fifth place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here. He's likely going to get roasted on the top end.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #12 FRONT MAN to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,12] Total Cost: $6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-12-2024, 08:20 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9600 Class Rating: 48

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 FAST FLO 3/1
# 4 MORNING REFLECTION 7/2
# 2 BINGO'S DREAM 5/2

FAST FLO has a very strong shot to take this race. MORNING REFLECTION - Looks very good against this group and will probably be one of the leaders. BINGO'S DREAM - Mendieta has her trained solidly to break swiftly out of the gate. This filly has to be considered just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-12-2024, 08:20 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #2 - Post: 1:37pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,600 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#1 SPANISH SERENADE (ML=3/1)
#5 CHASING BOURBON (ML=4/1)
#9 CANTUCCI (ML=10/1)

SPANISH SERENADE - Huarte has this gelding going in the right race. CHASING BOURBON - He has the uppermost earnings per race. Check out this animal. Don't often see a beneficial return on investment like +133. This jock/trainer duo has done well together over the last twelve months. Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Cole enters him at a similar level today. I'd expect an improved performance. Gelding will add blinkers to the equipment package today. That often leads to an improved performance. CANTUCCI - Have to like the way Biamonte has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. Using this jockey/handler combination is a good choice. Entered a $15,000 Claiming race at Woodbine last time out and raced on the soft turf finishing fifth. Will most certainly do better right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BILL NEEDLE (ML=5/2), #3 BAR TALK (ML=6/1), #8 ABSOLUTE CHAIRMAN (ML=8/1),

BILL NEEDLE - Didn't show much last out. Probably won't make a winning move in today's event. BAR TALK - 6/1 is too low of a price to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back races. ABSOLUTE CHAIRMAN - Won't be easy for this horse to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced contenders list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 SPANISH SERENADE on the nose if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with [5,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-12-2024, 08:20 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 69

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 GRAND ROZZO 8/1
# 4 BROKENHEARTED 2/1
# 6 NORTHWOODS 10/1

I've got to go with GRAND ROZZO especially at a such a nice price. Barboza makes a blinkers change (going on today), looking for better results. Jockey's recent ROI figures make this gelding a good bet. Could best this group based on the Equibase speed fig - 66 - of his last race. BROKENHEARTED - Has to be carefully examined based on the solid speed fig recorded in the last competition. This gelding with Rodriguez in the saddle makes him a key contender. NORTHWOODS - Reliable average Equibase Speed Figs in dirt sprint races make this pony a key contender. Might best this field here, showing strong numbers of late.