Sunday 7/14/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2024, 08:22 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 14, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park begins the week with a 16-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout. The sequence starts in Race 11, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

5-Greatest Ending (8/5)-Does have big gate speed and could get the top when the wings fold or duck and make a quarter move. Either way AMac could control the mile early enough to steal a quarter. If that happens the 5-year-old should be difficult to tackle.
7-Unlikeanyother (9-1)-Shipped in from Scioto and had an even effort starting from post 9. Will look for Billy Davis Jr. to get a decent early seat, then grind it out and roll by down the lane at a nice price.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

1-Mo Bay (3-1)-Found Open company too tough and now drops to a level where the 5-year-old can make some noise. Doesn't have great gate speed but Hunter Myers should be racing near the top and be in striking range turning for the wire.
4-Gabbys Bit Coin (5/2)-Posted a win as an odds choice at ScD. Has only raced 5 times this year and was idle throughout 2023. Posted 2 wins in 5 races at Nfld winning over $101,000 on that oval. Faces better but could be up to the challenge after taking a picture on 7-4.
7-Stoney Ridgetop (12-1)-Willing to take a swing as form is sharp and has very good gate speed. If Ken Holiday gets the top without burning much gas the 5-year-old could pop at long odds. Has done well at Nfld (12-3-5-2).

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-Camouflage Money (6-1)-Drops to a more competitive level and should have a nice seat off the gate. Could be in the hunt with a sharp steer from Chris Lems.
3-Joelsyy Hanover (5-1)-On and off sort can be a factor with the right set-up and Kurt Sugg could work a cozy trip. Has one good move to use and might pop at a square price.
5-Roll With Time (4-1)-Posted a win 2 back at Nfld and then went to the Meadows, faced better, and finished 2nd. Should fit with this group but needs a top effort to notch a win. The Presto-Merriman combo has posted 25% winners. Will respect the connections and hope the morning line price holds up.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

5-Herecomescharlie B (6-1)-Comes off a sharp win leaving from post 7 and making 2-moves. Billy Davis JR is in the bike again and now faces Open company. Has been close to winning at this level and has good gate speed to be in position to seal the deal tonight.
9-Joggingtothebank (3-1)-The rail horse has some gate speed and could be a player if Merriman can get a close-up seat into the opening turn. This veteran knows how to win and has the pilot to put him into position for that to happen.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

5,7/1,4,7/2,3,5/5,9
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2024, 08:22 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #6

#8 Gentle Soul	I like that he bounced back a bit last time out after a couple races I think you can draw a line through, and he could be approaching his best stuff today while making his second turf route start of the campaign.
#5 Oscar Eclipse	His better lines have come on the main track, so he's extra tough if this comes over, but he has enough class to him to think he can be competitive on the grass anyway.
#1 Quadra Island	He doesn't always punch home with a ton of energy, but he's dangerous when he does and gets some class relief today after a couple Grade III tries. I'm not that enthusiastic, but he wouldn't be a huge surprise.
Race Summary	Gentle Soul might still offer a playable price after a useful turf run last out, and I am hoping the presence of #3 Fuerteventura inflates the other numbers just a bit. #2 Ode to Balius is eligible for way easier than this but has a little appeal in the deeper underneath spots.

Ellis Park - Race #8

#8 Runnin Rocket	Willing to toss the two-back dud given how hard he faded that day, and he owns a couple pretty nice sprint runs that suggest he might wake up while turning back today. Think he'll be tough.
#2 Coulditbemajic	He's back off the bench while trying for turf for the first time, and he ran a couple good races over the main track as a 2-year-old here last year. Wouldn't be a shock if he liked the trip.
#3 Linzer	He has been a bit inconsistent this year, but his better sprint work stacks up well in a race that might give him a bit better run of things than last time out. Capable with his best.
Race Summary	Runnin Rocket is coming into this with a couple excuses, and he might offer an OK price with some competitive back form.

Ellis Park - Race #9

#7 Mandalorian	Riser looked decent getting around two turns last time out, and he might have a little bit more to show with just the two starts under his belt. Makes sense at a midrange price for the new team.
#9 Mobster	He has some tough company lines and makes his third start off the long break after snagging a couple underneath shares. He's one of the obvious ones, but I worry that he's vulnerable to getting picked up on the wire.
#11 Dive Bomber	He can win this, but the price probably won't be worth the risk with four starts on his page and just as many running lines without any real finishing punch.
Race Summary	Mandalorian is worth a little price reach in what feels like a fun race. He might not be too far off these despite the class rise. #3 Bourbon Society and #2 Stormy Passage both got looks, too.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2024, 08:24 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 1	Leg 1 of the All Turf Pick 3
Maiden Claiming $50,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $32,000 • Post: 1:21P
ELP - R4 - (RAIL AT 24 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE.)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Trailer. BOLTORO is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOLTORO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TIZ SWE ET EMOTION: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WHY WASTE WORDS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surfac e. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
11	BOLTORO	5/1	9/2
8	TIZ SWEET EMOTION	15/1	5/1
1	WHY WASTE WORDS	5/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	GOURMET	2	8/1	Front-runner	85	77	92.5	70.4	58.4
7	CHA CHA CHUKKA	7	7/2	Front-runner	71	54	87.2	70.2	56.2
3	CLASSIC CLAIRE	3	3/1	Front-runner	79	75	75.9	72.1	60.6
5	CANDY LOVER	5	4/1	Front-runner	79	76	72.0	65.4	56.9
6	TIDAL TACTICS	6	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	91.0	70.2	58.7
11	BOLTORO	11	5/1	Trailer	82	72	92.8	74.4	69.9
8	TIZ SWEET EMOTION	8	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	86	74	82.5	73.0	64.5
1	WHY WASTE WORDS	1	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	86	76	82.2	70.2	61.7
10	E B ZOOM BABY	10	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	47.4	47.4	28.9
9	TWO LUCYS	9	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	68	45.6	66.3	54.8

Unknown Running Style: MELIDOUS SONNET (30/1) [Jockey: Lebron Victor - Trainer: Hancock John A].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2024, 08:24 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park
PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 2	2nd Half Daily Double $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 3 (races 2-4) $1 Wheel
Maiden Special • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 53 • Purse: $16,500 • Post: 7:25P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. (IF NECESSARY WILL BE RUN SAME DISTANCE MAIN TRACK.).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. LINDYSNOTOBNOXIOUS is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FLAT OUT DIAMONDS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LINDYSNOTOBNOXIOUS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. JAMMER INSURANCE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Ra ting.
4	FLAT OUT DIAMONDS	3/1	4/1
8	LINDYSNOTOBNOXIOUS	9/2	9/2
7	JAMMER INSURANCE	9/5	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	LINDYSNOTOBNOXIOUS	8	9/2	Front-runner	53	52	71.6	49.5	40.5
4	FLAT OUT DIAMONDS	4	3/1	Stalker	62	65	51.6	59.1	57.1
1	BETHPAGE	1	5/1	Stalker	52	43	46.1	48.5	42.0
2	BEVERLY'SACTINUP	2	8/1	Stalker	45	45	41.7	42.7	35.2
6	HIGHWAY ROBBERY	6	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	58	49	35.1	31.8	21.8
7	JAMMER INSURANCE	7	9/5	Trailer	57	51	6.6	48.3	43.8
5	MY DANIELA	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	41	29	48.7	21.4	6.4
3	SAVANNAH'S STAR	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	9.1	17.3	2.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2024, 08:25 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grand Prairie

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 PERFORMATIVE 6/1
# 5 LITTLE CASINO 8/1
# 3 FATHER O'FLAHERTY 4/1

PERFORMATIVE is my choice. Have to sense that this animal will do well again this time around. Earned a competitive speed figure last time out. With one of the best jock in terms of profits at the window, don't count this gelding out. LITTLE CASINO - This gelding ought to be given a chance just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint events alone. Has formidable Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. FATHER O'FLAHERTY - Is worth looking at and may be a bet - strong Equibase speed figs (84 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Should be given consideration here on the basis of the numbers in the speed department alone.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2024, 08:26 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #3 - Post: 2:06pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $65,700 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#6 THE NEW MAYBE (ML=3/1)
#8 CHASING TROUBLE (ML=9/5)

THE NEW MAYBE - As the only front runner in the race, I expect this gelding to be long gone. CHASING TROUBLE - Note that although this gelding finished second in his last race, he was well clear of the third place horse. This is a classic positive angle. This horse is in the top spot in EPS (earnings per start). He looks strong in today's affair. Leading into this race, this thoroughbred has notched three speed figures that are equal to or higher than today's class rating. A good indication he should compete well in this race. Maiden is moving over to the dirt, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to be a winner for the first-time. Gelding made up a ton of ground in a 7 1/2 furlongs race. May go better on the stretchout.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 FIGHTING IRISH (ML=4/1), #2 MONDAY MORNING (ML=6/1),

FIGHTING IRISH - Didn't come through as the favorite twice in a row. Probably won't gain a top finish today either. This equine doesn't have a winning demeanor. Very often finishes close, but no cigar. This come from behinder will probably be rallying much too late to make a mark in this race. MONDAY MORNING - Looked good on Jun 23rd, finishing third, but no morning drills since is a bit troublesome. This pony ran a common speed figure last out. He shouldn't run much better and will probably suffer defeat in today's race running that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 THE NEW MAYBE on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2024, 08:26 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 44

FOR NATIVE FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 116 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 ACAUDALADA 2/1
# 2 CASTA DIVA 9/5
# 4 LA CATEDRAL 10/1

ACAUDALADA is the best wager in this race. Players ought to note that this horse runs with second time Lasix today. This filly has to be carefully examined just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone. CASTA DIVA - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a good handicapping key. This entrant ranks at the top in this bunch.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2024, 08:26 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #9 - Post: 7:25pm - Maiden Special - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $44,540 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#3 STUMPY'S LOVE SONG (ML=3/1)
#2 COUNTY JAIL (ML=5/1)

STUMPY'S LOVE SONG - Roman was aboard this gelding last race out and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. Ran last time out against a higher rated class of horses at Prairie Meadows. The move down the class ladder should suit him well. The last speed rating of 69 is the best last race fig in the bunch. COUNTY JAIL - This thoroughbred should be rumbling in the lane.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 EDGY LOVER (ML=9/5), #1 ORPHAN SANDY (ML=7/2), #6 ESPRIT ROUGE (ML=8/1),

EDGY LOVER - This gelding is always around, but just doesn't get the job done. Difficult to wager on him on the top end. ORPHAN SANDY - 7/2 is just too low of a value to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back races around the track. ESPRIT ROUGE - This horse hasn't been hitting the board in either of her last couple of efforts. The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced contender.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #3 STUMPY'S LOVE SONG to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip